Poll: Bush Rural Support Fades in Key States

[UpInArms]

http://www.npr.org/display_pages/features/feature_1979011.html

June 28, 2004 -- A new poll shows President Bush losing support in 17 so- called "battleground" states among a key constituency: rural voters. Those states, which Mr. Bush carried in 2000 thanks to overwhelming support in rural counties, are considered too close to call in the November presidential election. Mr. Bush appears set to win the rural vote again, but by a less substantial margin -- and as NPR's Howard Berkes reports, that could make the difference in a tight election.

Respondents contacted by NPR who said they voted for Mr. Bush in 2000 cited the economy and the Iraq war as reasons they're looking to change their vote in November.

Respondents in the Center for Rural Strategies poll give the president a nine- point lead over Democrat John Kerry in rural portions of the battleground states. Mr. Bush was favored by 51 percent of respondents, compared to 42 percent for Kerry. But the same people said they gave candidate Bush a margin twice as big against his Democratic rival four years ago -- 55 percent said that they voted for Bush, 37 percent for Al Gore. (In the final election results from 2000, Bush won 55.5 percent of the vote in rural counties in the 17 states, while Gore captured 44.5 percent.)

...a bit more...

[diplomats]

1. Great news!

[Frances]

2. These statistics are why I want Edwards for VP

I think Edwards knows how to explain to rural voters that the Dems are much better for them than Bush

Bush wants to get their votes on the gay marriage issue, but Dems will look after their social security, medicare, and health and economic interests, all of which Bush threatens.

[David__77]

4. Edwards might be good on trade issues.

I think he would make a good choice, but there are others as well. I think that we should not overestimate the marriage issue. Most people will not make this a dividing line question, and marriages have been happening since May and there's no outcry at all.

[Frances]

9. You are wrong about the gay marriage issue

not having consequences in rural areas IMO

I am all for gay marriages, but I live near San Francisco and I have learned a lot about gay issues since I moved here. If I still lived in rural Alabama, I feel sure that I would be against gay marriage because of all the religious and cultural influences that would surround me.

[AP]

8. Anecdotally, I have to say that I had great conversations with rural voter

about Edwards.

One of their big concerns is the coglomatization of the agricultural business. They really have an accute sense of big business taking over agriculture and making huge profits from ripping off workers and the small farmer and passing those profits up to the CEOs (who then take them out of the company in dividends taxed at half the average person's earned income tax rates). And they also notice that their food bills aren't going down despite the fact that they're getting less and less money from their land and their labors.

It was very easy to talk about what Edwards wanted to do for these people by overlapping many different parts of Edwards's Real Solutions. He also had an explicit plan for rural america which more concretely tied the different strings of his platform together.

[David__77]

3. This is thanks to dumping the "New Democrat" image.

The "New Democrat" image was that of free-trade-at-all-cost and let's-shrink-the-government. This is not what appeals to rural America. They know the importance of a strong government that looks out for the interests of its people and cares about jobs. The free traders are the ones who will lose out. Populism is a weapon that should be wielded by progressives as in the case of Stephanie Herseth, for instance. Kerry can do a lot better than Gore did among certain of these rural demographics.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. The latest Zogby poll says that Bushler gets 280+ electoral votes....

plus this stupid ANTI-AMERICA USSC ruling, I don't know what to think.

[diplomats]

6. That Zogby poll is more than a week old

Also keep in mind Zogby awards electoral votes based on any lead, even if it's less than 1 percent. The undecideds will go overwhelmingly for Kerry, so he should win those close states.

[truthspeaker]

7. Maybe because they're children and spouses are dying in Iraq?

And reserve and guard troops, many from rural areas, are being spat on by Bush?

[Frances]

10. I think the way the National Guard is being used is definitely

hurting Bush in small towns.

I think the turnover in Iraq will help Bush at first. Bush has warned that there will be violence, so people will expect the violence for another month or two.

But if there is still a lot of violence in Iraq in October, then I think Bush is toast.

[havocmom]

11. Yep, small towns are feeling the pinch as reservists & guards are called,

(edit: typos)

as a lot of emergency service people in small towns are also reservists or in the Guard. It is a triple whammy: Your neighbor or kinsman gets sent overseas to fight in a war you were lied to about, you now have a less secure hometown because the police/fire/ambulance is very shorthanded due to call ups, the vets living in your town are having a dickens of a time getting medical care cuz budgets cuts are closing down VA hospitals and clinics.

Sunday is 4th of July. For those of us in small towns, that is a very BIG deal. The VFW is a major thing in many small towns. For holidays, everyone who ever wore a US military uniform puts it on and they are cheered. The AWOL CIC who doesn't want any media coverage of flag draped coffins unless it is one for a former president and he can arragne a photo op to benefit his own sorry ass... well, he is not playing as well as he used to in rural America.

And these people, though mostly self employed, are VERY angry about big CEO pay, PO Boxes on resort islands to avoid taxes, and outsourcing. They know America is not made stronger by making its people third world laborers and sending its military to be held hostage by companies charging too much to feed them. They are getting a lot of letters home from Iraq with pleas to send food and water. They are starting to have memorial services for neighbors KIA.

I helped count votes in our recent state primary. I counted Republican ballots. There were a lot of "no preference" and one write in for John Kerry. I do not believe bush* can consider this county to be his by the 80%/20% margin he got in 2000.

He is toast and we vote with pencils in these parts. Hard to hack that.

[Frances]

12. Your post made my day

Wouldn't it be funny if the rural voters kicked Bush out with their pencils?