Modest bounce, polls indicate

[DaveSZ]

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-uspoll033916399aug03,0,4387605.story?coll=ny-nationalnews-headlines


CAMPAIGN POLLSTERS
Modest bounce, polls indicate
Democrat Kerry got smaller-than-usual boost in popularity following convention, latest numbers show


BY CRAIG GORDON
WASHINGTON BUREAU; Anne Q. Hoy of the Washington bureau contributed to this story.

August 3, 2004


WASHINGTON - The Democratic convention last week bestowed at most a modest bounce on John Kerry's campaign, even with higher TV ratings and a message tailored to swing voters, but Kerry did make gains in convincing Americans he's up to the job.

Kerry's convention - a four-day event in Boston last week showcasing the Massachusetts senator and his party's prescriptions for the future - did little to break open up a still too-close-to-call race against President George W. Bush, according to most polls.

In a Gallup/CNN/USA Today poll, Kerry even lost ground to Bush, an oddity that would make it the worst showing for a Democrat since 1972, when George McGovern gained zero points after the convention. In another poll, taken for Newsweek magazine, Kerry's four-point bounce was the smallest since the poll began in 1984.

Several pollsters, including some Republicans, said the polls reflect what's going on at the heart of this campaign, with much of the deeply polarized electorate already locked in on Bush or Kerry far earlier than usual, leaving as few as one in eight voters susceptible to being swayed by a convention.

-more

[Bucky]

1. Bah. The convention locked down the swingable moderate Democrats.

The convention locked down the swingable moderate Democrats. That alone is the measure of success.

As Democrats we're still suffering from post-Dukakis stress disorder. The only known cure for this is getting out the vote.

[monarch]

2. Converting ABB voters to strong Kerry supporters

constitutes a "bounce" in my book.

[Mountainman]

3. Other than C-Span, the convention coverage was done by repukes

I was switching between cable news shows during the convention and on every one there were repuke commentators trying to play down anything positive that was going on.

Even C-Span had their repuke slanted moderators on several times. Also the coverage was only 1 hour on every channel except MSNBC. Conventions used to have the ABC, CBS and NBC reporters on the campaign floor and their reporting was not bias, they simply reported what was going on and asked questions of delegates.

There is just as much going on this year as in 2000, in an effort to keep the poll numbers down for the Dem candidates.

No one in the mainstream media is questioning the terror alerts or criticizing Bush for planning to bash Kerry during the RNC and the month of August yet all we heard before the DNC was how wrong it would be for the Dems to bash Bush.

I really feel we are going into these things with one arm tied behind our backs. It pisses me off that we cannot have real fair and unbiased reporting of the campaigns. Even when there is obvious dishonesty by the other side, people like Andrea Mitchel on Tweety's show will say something to blunt the effect of the reporting.

The reporting of the DNC was controlled by the repukes so I am not surprised the bounce is not great.

[Nambe]

4. Do not buy these polls! They are like the terror allerts.

Half of their poll was conducted on Thursday night, before Kerry had delivered his acceptance speech! Moreover, their results differ on the two nights, with Kerry leading by 2 points in the pre-acceptance speech data and by 10 points in the post-acceptance speech data.

What possible excuse can there be for presenting these data as measuring Kerry's bounce from the convention, when the effect of the most important event of the convention isn't included in half the data? Perhaps there is one, but I can't think of it.

[Nambe]

5. 8 other polls: Kerry up 7 to 10. CNN: Kerry down 2

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[ClintonTyree]

6. Surprisingly though...............

THAT"S the poll every talking head on the "Liberal Press" is ballyhooing. Funny how that works out, isn't it?