President foresees no bounce in polls

[Nambe]

THE WASHINGTON TIMES (RW Rag)

DALLAS — President Bush's re-election campaign predicted yesterday that he, like Sen. John Kerry, will receive no bounce in the polls after his party's nominating convention next month.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign, said an incumbent president typically gets only two-thirds of his challenger's bounce. And according to a Gallup Poll, Mr. Kerry actually lost ground to Mr. Bush after last week's Democratic National Convention.

"Two-thirds of zero — and my math is pretty simple here — is zero," Mr. Dowd told reporters on a conference call. "So that's our expectation on our bounce." ...

... As for Mr. Dowd's prediction of no Bush bounce, Mr. Singer said: "Whenever they're in trouble, they resort to lowering expectation."

Ride Don’t Drive It’s Global Cool

[olddem43]

1. Our expectations for Bushco can't get any lower.

[LauraK]

23. Paranoia strikes deep. Give them some of *'s drugs.

What a crew.

[Manix]

2. ..so transparent, it's laughable! Did he say it with a straight face?

[truthisfreedom]

3. except they're only talking about the one poll. they aren't talking about

the zogby poll, that's for sure. they just pull nummahs outta they're asses and try to pretend...

just like they were screaming that Kerry would get a 15 point bounce...

goofballs.

[squidbro]

7. Link to Zogby poll

The link can be found at:

<http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=850>

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Gingrich said Bush 15 point drop was a Statistical Aberration

On the News Hour (Lehrer), New Gingrich was asked by Margaret Warner about the poll question, Who can handle national security best or something very similar. Bush had dropped from 18 points over Kerry to 3 points over Kerry, a 15 point drop, and Gingrich said it was just one poll and was a statistical fluke.

[yellowcanine]

21. Newtie is a statistical aberration.

.

[LiberalFighter]

26. Newt is just a fluke plain and simple

[CarolynEC]

4. The expectations game

Repugs will do everything they can to lower expectations, of course.

Our side ought to be out there hyping how the RNC is a crucial moment for Bush, where he must try to regain the trust of the voters.

Howard dean has been raising the trust issue in regard to "terror alerts."

I think we should expand on the idea, and keep saying over and over again night and day that Bush has lost the trust of the voters, his biggest challenge is to regain the trust of the voters, voters are increasingly distrustful of Bush, etc. etc.

Meme Management. This shit works, if it's done right. Every surrogate who appears on any show or is interviewed by any paper ought to inject the lost-trust issue into the conversation, beginning now with the buildup to the RNC.

Trust me on this. :D

[tridim]

5. Now we know why the misleading Gallup poll was pushed so hard

Fucking CNN.

[daleo]

6. Spin, spin, spin

They must have great faith in black box voting.

[alfredo]

8. Bush will get a huge bounce from the convention.

Pass it on.

[hatrack]

9. So they won't care about three total hours of network coverage?

Good, I didn't think they would!

[VoteDemocratic2004]

10. Black boxes don't give you a bounce moran Bush

I haven't met anyone that likes Bush and he sees no bounce....duhh I wonder why?

Could it be because he knows that most of the country hates his guts and won't be voting for him. :shrug:

[absolutezero]

11. one poll out of a dozen

had kerry recieving no bounce, losing one point to bush

the rest gave him a 5-8 point bounce, giving him a 8-13 point lead amoung all the other polls

they tried to scare us into supporting bush, now they're going to act like kerry's already lost when bush gets his bounce (if any) out of the RNC

this is actually a smart move, because the morons who believe this will see a 1 point jump as huge, and no bounce as clairvoyance

[Democat]

12. If there is one poll out of 100 that give Bush a bounce, that'll be it!

Just like one negative poll on Kerry becomes the entire story, one positive poll for Bush will be the entire story.

Watch the media kiss Bush's ass and try to help him get elected.

[TahitiNut]

13. The art of lowering expectations has met its challenge: DimSon.

When the media is complicit, the sheeple swallow this shit.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

17. "I'm the master of low expectations"

* aboard Air Force One, June 4, 2003

http://slate.msn.com/id/2084065/

[Piperay]

14. So if he gets 1/2 a percent

coming out of the GOOP Convention, he has exceeded expectations.:eyes:

[Swamp Rat]

15. Bush is going to get a BIG bounce... right back to Crawford!

I bet he's taking handfuls of tranquilizers right now. :+

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[calico1]

18. They are saying this so that if they

get a 3% bounce it will be considered amazing! LOL

[struggle4progress]

20. Public Opinion Watch - August 4, 2004

<snip>
On who can best handle specific issues, Kerry's lead on the economy has gone from 8 to 11 points; on Iraq, he has gone from –5 to +2; on terrorism, from –18 to –12; on health care from +17 to +21; and on taxes from +2 to +3. Kerry has also regained the lead over Bush on who can manage the government effectively (+1); increased his lead from +8 to +15 on "cares about people like you"; reduced his deficit from –19 to –9 on who is a strong and decisive leader; took the lead over Bush on "is a person you admire" (+2); increased his lead on having an optimistic vision for the future from +3 to +11; took the lead over Bush on being honest and trustworthy (+5); and registered a large lead on "will unite the country, not divide it" (+13).
<snip>

Bush's approval/disapproval is 44 percent/49 percent (37 percent/51 percent among independents). His rating on the economy is just 39 percent/54 percent (30 percent/59 percent among independents), even worse than two weeks before, when it was 42 percent/51 percent. And his rating on Iraq is even lower than his economic rating, at 38 percent/55 percent.
<snip>

Moreover, voters believe Bush's presidency has divided Americans (55 percent), rather than brought them together (31 percent). But they believe the opposite about a Kerry presidency: by 53 percent to 29 percent, they think he would bring Americans together.
<snip>

And here's a particularly impressive result: by 52 percent to 44 percent, voters select Kerry over Bush as the one better qualified to be commander in chief of the U.S. military.
<snip>

http://www.americanprogress.org/site/lookup.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=134332


Kerry Would Handily Take Massachusetts

(CPOD) Aug. 4, 2004 – John Kerry would carry his home state of Massachusetts in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College. 56 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee, while 30 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush. Three per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader, and seven per cent would either choose other contenders or remain undecided.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3662


Bush Holding Off Kerry In Arizona

(CPOD) Aug. 4, 2004 – George W. Bush could carry the state of Arizona in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Market Solutions Group published in the Arizona Republic. 48 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 45 per cent would support Democratic nominee John Kerry. On Jul. 2, independent candidate Ralph Nader failed in his bid to be included in the Arizona ballot after his supporters were not able to collect the signatures of 14,696 registered voters in the state. Seven per cent of respondents are undecided.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3664


Kerry Now First In West Virginia

(CPOD) Aug. 4, 2004 – John Kerry is the top presidential candidate in West Virginia, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 47.6 per cent of respondents would vote for the Democratic nominee in the 2004 United States election, while 44.2 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 2.1 per cent of respondents.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3660

[Johnny Arson]

22. Um...

Aside from citing an outlying poll, isn't trying to keep bounce expectations low pretty much what WE did also?

[MallRat]

24. NEW MEME: "We expect that Bush should get at least a 10-12 point bounce."

Two can play at this game, you fuckers...

-MR

[wrate]

25. Bush doesn't need a bounce, he's got Diebold voting machines. n/t