STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 5 August

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 168
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 89
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 237 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 291 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 504
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 987
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 4, 2004

Dow... 10,126.51 +6.27 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq... 1,855.06 -4.36 (-0.23%)
S&P 500... 1,098.63 -1.06 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.43% +0.01 (+0.16%)
Gold future... 394.70 -2.00 (-0.50%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.69 Change +0.01 (+0.01%)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aktf5fVECBFs&refer=us

Dollar Falls From Seven- Week High; ISM Jobs Component Falls

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar dropped from a seven-week high against the euro after a gauge of U.S. employment in service industries declined, suggesting a rebound in jobs might be weaker than forecast.

Demand for the dollar waned after the Institute for Supply Management's employment index fell to 50.0 in July from June's record 57.4. The number of U.S. jobs added last month may have doubled from June to 243,000, according to a Bloomberg survey of 71 economists before Friday's employment report.

``The weaker employment component on the ISM report in a week where we are all waiting for the payrolls report on Friday is going to push the dollar down a bit, or at least take some of steam out of the dollar's early gains,'' said Joseph Barnea, senior currency trader at Bank Leumi USA in New York.

<snip>

Japan's currency fell against the dollar after Japan's benchmark stock index slid to a two-month low and oil prices rose to a record.

The yen has lost 7 percent since April 1 as average weekly net purchases of Japanese shares from abroad more than halved. The Nikkei 225 Stock Index fell today on concern record crude prices will slow economic growth.

``The performance of the Nikkei has discouraged some foreign investment in Japanese stocks,'' said Robert Lynch, a currency strategist in New York at BNP Paribas SA, France's No. 2 bank by assets. ``That's been evident in the slippage in the yen.''

Declines for the yen may accelerate should the currency drop to 112.50 per dollar, which it reached last month, Lynch said. A move below that level will pave the way for a fall to about 114.90, he said.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1091694829-9e32d306-16852

Forex - Dollar edges lower on speculation of weak US jobs growth

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was under pressure all around amid speculation that US labour market data, due out Friday, may come in weaker than previously expected. "US employment data are beginning to loom large on the horizon, impeding the dollar's ability to continue its push higher," said Steve Pearson at HBOS

Doubts about the all-important gauge of job creation set in firmly yesterday after the second set of July ISM data indicated a weak employment situation. Earlier in the week, the manufacturing sector showed a similar story

Pearson said hiring intentions in July may have been adversely affected by some soft economic data in the previous month although these effects "are already beginning to fade in corporate memories." Before yesterday, markets were expecting a 260,000 rise in non-farm payrolls but a figure between 200,000-250,000 is still likely

And, if this happens the US Fed will not be "deflected from its measured tightening path," said Pearson

...more...

It's MaeveDay! Today's initial claims report is due at 8:30 EST. Tomorrow is the big report day but we'll just have to see where the numbers will spin today :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

2. Will Consumers Bounce Back?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

The government’s tally of personal spending for June confirmed that spending contracted. In fact, the report published by the Commerce Department showed that spending had the largest drop since September 2001. The question now becomes whether June was the beginning of the end of the consumer spending binge or just a hiccup. Early indications show that it was merely a hiccup, but the rest of this week will offer a very good indication. Retailers report same store sales on Thursday and the Labor Department releases the July employment situation report on Friday.

Vehicle sales were one of the first indications of the strength of the economy and consumer spending. Auto sales were higher than analysts expected and provided a significant bounce over the lackluster results in June. The 17.4 million unit rate was also higher than the average rate so far this year. Unfortunately for the automakers it took higher incentives to boost sales. Additionally, Ford said that incentives were starting to have less impact. The domestic automakers lost market share again and for the second month Toyota overtook Chrysler as the number three nameplate.

Retailers report same store sales on Thursday which will yield more evidence on whether the consumer rebounded in July. A few retailers reported same store sales on Wednesday.

snip>

In recent months, we have witnessed several example of what could be classified as an increasingly dichotomous consumer spending environment. At the high end, there seems to be room to grow and increase margins. According to Tuesday’s conference call, the average Coach customer purchases 3.5 handbags per year and “customers are embracing $300 handbag price points.” Ann Taylor Stores, a specialty retailer of better quality women’s apparel, has also spoken recently of higher full-price selling and very strong results in high end accessories such as handbags. Recently, Ann Taylor has had the confidence to test the price-elasticity of its handbags, increasing average ticket by 18%. Previously, Ann Taylor’s highest priced handbag cost $115, now that price is reported to be $158.

It also appears that other companies have been noticing this trend as well, viewing that there is more margin and sales opportunities at the high end of the retailing spectrum. Wednesday clothing designer Tommy Hilfiger Corp. announced their first quarter results, reporting a net loss of $7.6M after sales fell 11%. According to Bloomberg, Tommy is refocusing its efforts from the baggy jeans and popular shirts that first inspired the company’s dramatic growth to “dressier and more expensive” lines of clothing such as H Hilfiger, to be sold at Federated Department Stores (the owner of Bloomingdales and Macys stores). Additionally, Tommy Hilfiger is reducing product distribution to Dillard’s, its largest customer, in an effort to limit discounting.

more...

[54anickel]

3. Wal-Mart's Sales Rise 3.2 Percent

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040805/retail_walmart_sales_2.html

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - News) on Thursday said July sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 3.2 percent, helped by early back-to-school demand and warmer weather that spurred summer merchandise sales.

Less clearance activity in seasonal goods and apparel in the month resulted in lower markdowns, the company said.

The world's biggest retailer said total sales in the four weeks ended July 30 rose 10.9 percent to $20.61 billion.

Analysts, on average, expected a 3.1 percent increase in July same-store sales.....

snip>

Food, pet supplies and paper goods were among the best sellers at the discount stores, Wal-Mart said. The company noted inflation in paper goods, a category where most major manufacturers have increased prices to try to cope with higher raw material costs.

[54anickel]

4. Brent Crude Oil Rises as Concerns Remain About Limited Capacity

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aqqYuAqS_b18&refer=us

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rebounded from yesterday's plunge, amid concern supplies could still be disrupted before producers such as Saudi Arabia can start pumping more oil.

Prices fell from records in London and New York yesterday after a report showed U.S. supplies of oil products rose more than expected. They'd started falling when OPEC said it could tap spare capacity of as much as 1.5 million barrels a day, and OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's top oil exporter, said courts ruled it could use its bank accounts to pay for production and shipping.

``The market is still very nervous that OPEC's spare capacity may actually not be usable straight away,'' said Steve Turner, an analyst at Commerzbank Securities in London. ``There are still fears of supply disruptions.''

Brent crude for September settlement rose 60 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $40.30 a barrel on London's International Petroleum Exchange at 10:19 a.m. local time, adding 34 percent this year. Yesterday's record was $40.99.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Analysts say $50-a-barrel oil is possible

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2004-08-04-$50-oil_x.htm

WASHINGTON (AP) — Oil prices could rise as high as $50 per barrel before the year is up, analysts say, as the world's growing thirst for crude stretches supplies thin and uncertainty abounds in petroleum-producing nations.
"The fundamental fact is that oil is tight," says Leo Drollas, chief economist for the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies. Drollas believes $40 is a more likely price in the next month or two, although if demand is strong and the weather is cold this winter prices could reach $50.

Prices might leap even higher if there was a major supply disruption, analysts said.

Even at $50 per barrel, prices would be about 12% less expensive than they were leading up to the first Gulf War, and more than 40% below the levels reached during the oil crisis of the early 1980s, when inflation is taken into account. :eyes:

snip>

He believes that the sharp decline in prices in the late 1990s has resulted in a legacy of hesitancy among major oil companies to invest significant amounts of capital into exploration and production. The price of oil fell below $11 per barrel in December 1998, due to abundant supply.

Even with signs of global oil demand rising — and gasoline prices shooting above $2 a gallon this summer — "they didn't want to believe it because they've been burned in the past," Flynn said. "Now they're behind the 8-ball and are going to be playing catch up for years."

Many analysts are predicting oil prices to average $35 a barrel in 2005. But that doesn't factor in an unexpected loss of supply.

"The thing is," Flynn said, "a lot of stuff has to go just right for us to avoid $50 a barrel."

more...

[54anickel]

9. Speculators Place Bets on Oil, Roiling Fickle Energy Market

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/05/business/05oil.html

LONDON, Aug. 4 - Oil prices touched another record high on Wednesday, and then fell by more than a dollar a barrel, as turbulent markets reacted to new promises of greater production.

The energy markets have become more volatile in recent months, traders and analysts say, as speculators and large institutional investors, frustrated by the lackluster equity and bond markets, turn to oil in search of richer returns. Their activity is helping to move crude prices faster and farther than market fundamentals would seem to warrant, and not always in the expected direction.

snip>

Both the unpredictability of price movements and the unexpectedly rapid 35 percent run-up in oil prices this year can be traced in part to major growth in trading activity in the oil markets. According to the most recent available figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the total value of open interests in crude oil-based futures and option contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange grew 32.7 percent, or $26.6 billion, over the 12 months ended in mid-June.

"Speculators don't set the price, but they intensify a price movement in either direction, beyond or below what the fundamentals warrant," said James Burkhard, director of oil market analysis at Cambridge Energy Research Associates. "So far, they've intensified this increase."

Much of the increased speculation has come from hedge funds, which continued to attract billions of dollars in fresh capital from wealthy investors. Some $38.1 billion flowed into hedge funds in the first quarter of this year, according to Tremont Capital Management. Of that amount, Tremont's figures show, some $5.5 billion went to macro funds, which try to profit from speculating on broad global trends and geopolitical disruptions; another $3.9 billion went into funds specializing in futures. Both types are likely to be betting on oil price movements using options and futures contracts.

more...

[54anickel]

12. Anyone up to a game of "connect the dots & follow the money" on

these 3 articles?

[UpInArms]

24. Yamani: Speculators driving oil surge

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/08/05/oil.yamani.reut/

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- Saudi Arabia's Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani -- the face of the OPEC oil cartel during the 1970s oil price shocks -- says this time it is big- money speculators to blame for surging prices and confidently predicts the scare will not last.

The former Saudi oil minister said consumers all over the world were suffering the fallout of a buying bonanza by hedge funds, who for the moment see the energy market as the best place to make a fast return.

By contrast, OPEC is doing its best to get prices down as it frets that spiraling energy costs could hurt global growth, Yamani said.

"The funds are injecting a huge amount of money. The world economy -- in China, Japan, the Third World, even America -- is paying the price. It is a bad thing," he told Reuters in an interview.

The fund influx has pushed world oil prices up to more than $40 a barrel, matching the very highest levels hit during Yamani's renowned stint as Saudi oil minister from 1962 to 1986.

Then Yamani became a household name as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' demonstration of Arab oil power shook up the world economic order.

<snip>

Yamani sees parallels in today's price scare with his era's two oil shocks -- in the 1973 Arab oil embargo and after the 1979 Iranian revolution -- which each time sent the global economy spinning into recession.

Now, as then, politics is inextricably entwined with oil, he said. "It was artificially done by OPEC in the 1970s and early 1980s," he said.

"And now also you see political factors: the Iraqi occupation, the Venezuelan referendum, tribal disputes in Nigeria and now the Russian company Yukos," he said. "This panic is being used by the speculators."

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Ding ding ding We have a winner here! Yamani is a very good

connect the dots player. Another snippet from the end.

snip>

Speculators have bet it will take several years to fix the problem by generating enough new supply -- and that political tensions in big producers will keep a question mark hanging over existing oil flows.

But Yamani has long believed that if producers let oil prices go too high they sow the seeds of their own destruction by encouraging development of higher-cost supply, suppressing demand and breeding new fuel technologies.

Nothing in today's price surge has changed his view. He foresees a rerun of the mid-eighties crash, when a glut of OPEC oil halved crude prices in the space of a year -- an episode that ultimately forced Yamani out of office.

"What happened in the eighties will be repeated some time later this decade. It's ABC economics."

<end snip

Ah, but what's different this time is that there are no CAFE standards to repeal to disperse any glut. Not sure where the glut will come from this time let alone if there will be one at all, especially if Shrub gets back in. :shrug:

[54anickel]

18. Pumping all they can?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3070195

After the oil price had risen to a new high of more than $44 a barrel this week, amid concerns about supply, OPEC’s president said the cartel was unable to pump more oil and thus bring down the price. He later contradicted these comments, but observers remain sceptical about OPEC's ability to turn on more taps

ANYONE who expected that the invasion and occupation of Iraq would lead to a sharp decline in the price of oil has been sorely disappointed. Instead of falling, the price has risen sharply, and this week West Texas crude rose above $44 a barrel for the first time since New York’s Nymex exchange started trading oil 21 years ago, though the price fell back to around $43 later in the week.

snip>

They are also worried by the apparent impotence of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). On Tuesday August 3rd, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, president of OPEC and Indonesia’s oil minister, stunned observers by saying that the cartel would be unable to pump any more oil to alleviate the pressure on prices. “The oil price is very high, it’s crazy,” he said, adding that “there is no additional supply.”

However, he contradicted that statement the next day (most likely after coming under pressure from Saudi Arabia, the leading member of OPEC), claiming that the cartel has around 1m to 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity that it could tap immediately. This, combined with a surprise increase in American gasoline stocks and news that Russian bailiffs would allow Yukos access to its bank accounts to pay workers, helped bring the oil price down by around a dollar. But seasoned observers remain sceptical about OPEC's ability to pump any more oil.

more...

[54anickel]

6. Fed Is Expected to Raise a Rate on Tuesday

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/05/business/05fed.html

WASHINGTON, Aug. 4 - Despite a lull in economic growth and anxiety about the effect of high oil prices on spending, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its strategy of gradually raising interest rates when policy makers meet next Tuesday.

A raft of indicators suggest that economic growth slowed sharply last quarter, particularly in June, and may continue to be sluggish for a few more months. But Fed officials and many outside economists predict that the lull will be temporary and that activity will pick up again by the fall.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released new data on orders for manufactured products that in many ways reinforced the signs of sluggish growth.

But the economic picture is not clear and other indicators point to a renewed step-up in growth. Consumer confidence is back at high levels, and automobile sales last month jumped to an annual rate of 17.3 million cars and trucks from a rate of just over 15 million vehicles in June.

The most important evidence on the economy's recent pulse will be released at the end of this week. And while Fed officials will scrutinize that data on the job market's July performance, to be announced Friday by the Labor Department, most analysts believe central bankers are committed to raising the federal funds rate on overnight loans between banks by a quarter-point, from 1.25 to 1.5 percent.

more...

[UpInArms]

7. here are the claims numbers

8:29am 08/05/04

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 11,000 TO 336,000

8:30am 08/05/04

U.S. 4-WK AVG JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 6,750 TO 343,500

(on edit)

they must have adjusted last week's number up to 347,000, because that is the only way that the math works

Aug 05 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 07/31
reported 336K
briefing.com anticipated 340K
market anticipated 340K
last report 347K
revised from 345K

[UpInArms]

10. here's the trumpet on jobs claims

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38204.3543981481-816723222&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall in latest week By Corbett B. Daly
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time fell by 11,000 to 336,000 in the week ended July 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims, which smoothes out distortions in the weekly figures caused by weather and other one-time factors, rose by 6,750 to a level of 343,500. Meanwhile, the number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits fell by 35,000 to 2.91 million in the week ended July 24. The insured unemployment rate, measuring the percentage of claims among those eligible for benefits, remained unchanged at 2.3 percent.

[54anickel]

15. But let's not forget this article from the other day

I know, apples (gubbermint)to oranges (the horses mouth). Add this "orange" to what was reported found in the ISM reports earlier and you come up with :shrug: :grr:

U.S. layoffs increase 8.1% in July

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BCF9E8D19-068E-418D-9BB6-27AF218B78FE%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- U.S. corporations announced 8.1 percent more job reductions in July than in June, according to a monthly tally by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released Tuesday.

Corporations announced 69,572 job reductions in July, up from 64,343 in June, Challenger reported.

snip>

"The job market is still struggling to gain momentum," said Rick Cobb, executive vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Cobb said a surprising 43 percent of human-resources executives said their firms could be altered based on the outcome of the November election.

[UpInArms]

17. well, those layoffs were "announced" in July, but they may

take place in August - so the July reports might not reflect all of the news of jobs lost.

The dollar didn't really like the jobs claims report

Last trade 89.67 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

Last tick: 2004-08-05 08:33:27 ET
30-min delayed quote

[Maeve]

11. Fly-by posting

But since my name was invoked, I sort of have to make an appearance!
Noting only that last week's numbers were revised up again.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans continuing to receive state unemployment benefits fell by 35,000 to 2.91 million in the week ended July 24. The insured unemployment rate, measuring the percentage of claims among those eligible for benefits, remained unchanged at 2.3 percent
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38204.3543981481-816723222&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&
In part because the number of those eligible for benefits has dropped...

Back to the grindstone!

[54anickel]

13. I fell into that category 2 weeks ago. Bzzzz times up!

[54anickel]

8. Fewer US jobs posted on Web in July, Monster says

http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/040805/economy_jobs_monster_1.html

NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Online job postings declined in July for the first time this year, a report said on Thursday, a potential sign that the U.S. economy is still having trouble generating employment.

The Monster Employment Index, which is based on figures collected from over 1,500 Web sites, edged lower in July to 134 from 136 in June, though it remains well above a reading of 102 at the start of 2004.

Job creation had picked up in recent months, but those looking for work in June had a tough time finding it.

Many economists have argued the slowdown was temporary and that July would herald a rebound, a theory which will be tested on Friday when the government releases its jobs data for last month.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. China allows GM to make car loans

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=532688.html

BEIJING General Motors said Thursday that China's bank regulator has approved its loan venture with China's biggest carmaker, making it the first assembler to lend money to customers in the world's third-largest vehicle market.

General Motors Acceptance Corporation, the finance unit of General Motors, owns 60 percent of a 500-million yuan, or $60.4 million, venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry. With the approval, the venture can compete with Chinese banks in lending money to buyers of General Motors' Buick Regal, Excelle, Sail and GL8 vehicles.

General Motors is betting that easier financing will bolster sales in a market where only two out of every 10 cars had been sold with loans. In the United States, loans finance up to 85 percent of all vehicles sold.

"You can't overstress the importance of this financing arm to the development of General Motors in China," said Yale Zhang, an analyst at CSM Worldwide, a consulting firm based in Shanghai.

China's car sales, which increased 76 percent to 1.79 million units last year, have been slowing down in the past few months because customers were postponing their purchases in the hope of getting larger discounts. Sales began picking up pace in July as price discounts came to an end.

According to rules published in November last year, General Motors' Chinese loan venture can lend up to 90 percent of the value of a car and the combined size of its loans can be 10 times of its capital, or 5 billion yuan.

...more...

[54anickel]

16. (GM) Workers unsure about where they might end up

They are still much better off than non-union workers, at least their transfer to Walmart greeter or burger flipper will be delayed.

http://www.thestarpress.com/articles/2/024003-9052-004.html

MUNCIE - For the next 48 weeks, Raymond Smith expects to have plenty of time to catch up on gardening, yard work, friends and family. During that time, the 44-year-old father of four will be eligible for unemployment benefits and additional benefits from the UAW that will come close to equaling a regular 40-hour paycheck from Manual Transmissions of Muncie.

An employee at the plant since 1999 when the place was still called New Venture Gear, Smith was one of more than 200 employees at the West Eighth Street factory to be laid off Friday. Forty of those workers wound up at General Motors plants in Indianapolis and Marion, Smith said. Laid-off workers at the beleaguered former Chevy transmission plant have area hire rights at GM plants within a 60-mile radius of Muncie.

More than 200 more employees at the plant - all with seniority over Smith - are scheduled for indefinite furloughs by the end of the month, so Smith does not expect to be placed at any GM plant anywhere anytime soon.

However, if General Motors does not find jobs for displaced workers to transfer to by the time that unemployment benefits run out after 48 weeks, the company will be compelled to place them in job banks and pay them every day they come to work whether there is work to do, or not.

snip>

"American companies do not care about the American people, and the American people do not care about American workers," Whitehead said. "When the jobs leave, people leave, and that impacts schools, local businesses, everything - and we don't realize how much effect it will have until it's too late."

snip>

UAW Local 499 President Sherm Upchurch said local employees are included in the union's national contract with GM in effect until fall 2007, including the job protection that Smith mentioned.

"But the local Indiana base of good-paying jobs with good benefits is being replaced with Wal-Mart jobs with not as good pay and benefits," Upchurch said.

[UpInArms]

19. this is so well said, it bears repeating

"American companies do not care about the American people, and the American people do not care about American workers," Whitehead said. "When the jobs leave, people leave, and that impacts schools, local businesses, everything - and we don't realize how much effect it will have until it's too late."

I have been getting the news notices on various local and state agencies cutting back on workers and raising of fees and taxes - none are huge at this point so they don't seem to require threads or real mentions, but taken as a whole, they are going to impact a large number of counties, cities and states.

As anecdotal evidence, my county tax assessor's office was out traveling this week, looking for ways to increase the tax base - re-evaluating the values of the properties. I won't know what the outcome of that visit is until my tax bill arrives in November or December, but I can just bet that there will be a lovely little increase on my property taxes.

[54anickel]

23. Ewwww, we got reassessed last year and got SOCKED on our taxes,

along with everyone else in our little community. Tax bill went up over $1200! Of course the local & school taxes had to go up to cover what was lost from the Fed so it wasn't just the new value. I was able to argue for a cut in the appraisal of about 15K. Don't plan on selling and it was just way to stinking high!

[54anickel]

20. Pre-market yada

Heh, guess there is none at the usual site, still has yesterday's closing :shrug:

From INO:

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's sharp decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above last Friday's high crossing at 1414 are needed to confirm a bottom. If September extends this week's decline, a test of July's low crossing at 1360 is possible in the near future. If this support level is broken, a test of weekly support crossing at 1346 is possible later this summer. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pt. at 1382.50 as of 6:45 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1095.60. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish hinting that a low has been posted. However, multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1100.32 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of August. If September extends July's decline, a test of May's low crossing at 1079.50 is the next downside target. The September S&P 500 Index was up 0.90 pts. at 1097.80 as of 6:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[54anickel]

21. Stocks to relax about oil (Whatever)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/05/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil prices off their recent record highs could give a lift to U.S. stocks at Thursday's open as investors brace for the July employment report.

Early Thursday , Nasdaq and S&P futures were slightly higher.

Even though oil prices were above Wednesday's settlement, they were still about a dollar below the record highs set about 24 hours earlier. U.S. crude futures rose 40 cents to $43.23 a barrel in electronic trading, while Brent oil futures gained 55 cents to $40.25 a barrel in London.

more...

[UpInArms]

22. here's an alternate link for

briefing.com blather:

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/InDepth/StockMarketUpdate.htm

09:15 ET
Market is Closed


S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Cash market remains poised for a modestly higher start at the end of pre- market trading... Traders should keep a watchful eye on the price of crude oil - as it proved especially influential in yesterday's trade.

08:56 ET
Market is Closed


S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures market continues to trade just above fair value, pointing to a incrementally higher start for the indices... Look for the tech sector to emerge a standout in the early action, due to a rebound effort off last month's losses... The broader market should conversely be weighed down by some selling in retail: July same store sales were rather weak relative to expectations.

08:32 ET
Market is Closed


S&P futures vs fair value: +0.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures indications get a tiny boost from the better than expected initial claims data for the week of July 31... Jobless claims fell 11K to 336K (consensus of 340K), which marked their lowest level since July 3... As such, the cash market is now set for a somewhat higher open.

08:00 ET
Market is Closed


S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Futures trade suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market... The 3% drop in the price of crude oil which prompted an afternoon rally yesterday, the respectable gains seen in Asia and Europe, and the ECB's decision to leave rates unchanged have all contributed to the likely positive start.

guess I wasn't supposed to notice that blip on the dollar - it's back up to 89.75

am about to run away for the day - life is getting rather hectic for me here :(

[54anickel]

26. Thanks for the link UIA, and I hope you are able to have a good

day - sorry to hear it's getting rather hectic for you.

:hug:

[UpInArms]

25. UPDATE 1-Snow says high energy prices hurt U.S. recovery

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5884402

CANTON, Ohio, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Soaring global energy prices threaten a U.S. economic recovery that otherwise seems healthy and has largely overcome a June lull, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday.

In an interview on local radio station WAKR, Snow singled out energy prices as a special concern that stands out among other signs of a generally sustained recovery like high levels of home ownership and an improving jobs market.

"These extraordinarily high energy prices are a negative," Snow said. "They're hurting the recovery and they're extremely unwelcome and it's time ... for the Senate to go back to work and pass the president's energy bill."

...more...

Isn't it nice that they can continue to push for the secretive energy bill and all their friends in the industry get to continue to make out like bandits?

I promise that I really am leaving now :D

[54anickel]

27. What stinkin' recovery? Besides, who needs a recovery if there was

never a recession? Oh, nevermind! :crazy:

[54anickel]

28. 10:05 numbers - fancy colors

Dow 10,114.93 -11.58 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,855.57 +0.51 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,097.41 -1.22 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.402% -0.027

10:00AM: Major indices continue to hug the unchanged mark with conviction on the part of buyers lacking... Decliners claim a small lead over advancers at the NYSE and Nasdaq, although up volume is ahead of down volume at both exchanges... Industry participation is similarly mixed, with financial, health care, industrial, and material mildly lower, and notables semiconductor and biotech slightly higher... Homebuilding is the only sector attracting a great deal of buying interest at this time - and this is off Toll Brothers's (TOL 43.27 +1.40) solid preliminary backlog and orders report for Q3 (July)...
The company gears itself towards the high-end market, and has not seen demand falter as consumers in that bracket are less sensitive to interest rates...NYSE Adv/Dec 1130/1332, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1070/1232

9:45AM: Stock market gets off to a slow start, with the indices barely unchanged from yesterday's levels... Large gains in the Asian and European indices, carryover buying from yesterday's afternoon rally, and a jobless claims report that showed an 11K decline to 336K (consensus of 340K) for the week of July 31 have kept the market from falling significantly lower... A batch of weak July same store sales, however, has limited its upside momentum as investors had hoped for numbers much stronger than June's dismal figures...

Notable like Gap (GPS 20.61 -0.77) posted a -5.0% comp decrease versus the Briefing.com estimate of +0.7%...

[54anickel]

29. Today's WrapUp by Mike Hartman 08.04.2004

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm

ANOTHER AFTERNOON STOCK RALLY

The economic reports were positive this morning, but stocks still opened lower due to the drag of high energy prices and poor profit announcements coming from a slew of corporations. U.S. factory orders beat expectations of a 0.5% gain when the Commerce Department announced the increase for June at 0.7% and a revision of the May orders higher by a tenth to a gain of 0.4%. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rose from 59.9 in June to 64.8 reported for last month, beating the consensus estimate of 61.5 and topping the forecast range of 57.9 to 64.7. The report depicts a rebounding service sector which accounts for roughly 85% of the economy with 12 out of 17 industries showing increased business activity. A brief survey of the early morning headlines will show why stocks began the day in negative territory.

The top story from CBS MarketWatch pretty well sums up the negative impact of high oil prices with, “U.S. Stocks in Broad Decline as Crude Concerns Persist.” Oil stories continue to litter the newswires with information about Saudi production capacity, Yukos and Lukoil developments in Russia, problems in Venezuela, labor disputes in Nigeria and pipeline disruptions in Iraq. The oil issues are really no surprise, but some of the profit announcements clearly took their toll.

snip>

Reuters reports, “Oil prices fell from fresh 21-year highs (really all-time highs) on Wednesday after U.S. gasoline supplies jumped and the president of production cartel OPEC reversed previous statements and said the group could immediately boost output to help cool prices.” He sure changed his mind quickly with impeccable timing to keep the NASDAQ from falling off the proverbial cliff! One must certainly question inventory data with discrepancies between the API and the Energy Department, and I’m wondering if the sudden new supply has anything to do with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Well, well…some exciting times we live in! By the closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained six points to close at 10,126, the NASDAQ Composite held on by only losing four points to close at 1,855 and the S&P 500 shed one point to close at 1,098.

snip>

Can’t Resist!

I’m a bit short on time today due to earlier trading and contact with clients, but I’m compelled to make a few brief comments on silver and the dollar. Don’t be surprised if we see some short-term bashing in the gold and silver pits with the short-sellers getting a tad heavy handed…they too have their “vested interests.” What I enjoy watching is to see how silver gets beat around as an everyday commodity while it is classified as a precious metal. In this case, precious means RARE. With a rare commodity it will not be easy to come up with added supply when investment demand begins in earnest. The world is finding more and more uses for the shiny metal whose physical properties cannot be duplicated or synthesized in a laboratory. If you haven’t done your homework on the fundamentals of supply and demand for silver, it’s not too late.

Even considering the dollar strengthening fractionally today, silver continued to march higher. In the last six trading days, silver has moved from a low of $6.11 to an intra-day high today of $6.83, a gain of nearly 12% in just a few days! Last week I said not to blink or you’ll miss sliver blowing through $7.00. It’s a volatile precious commodity that has been taken for granted for too many years. Watch out for near-term gyrations, but holding the metal can give an investor a greater sense of security and learning the paper market and mining companies can add to growing the digitals in your portfolio!

[54anickel]

30. 10:42 numbers and then I gotta run for a couple hours

Dow 10,111.76 -14.75 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,853.91 -1.15 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,095.81 -2.82 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% -0.033
NYSE Volume 294,802,000
Nasdaq Volume 361,875,000

10:30AM: After maintaining a roughly unchanged stance for the first half hour, the market caves in after running into overhead resistance... Unable to build off the last session's late-day rally, the major indices sink into negative territory... Selling is fairly uniform across every sector - computer hardware, biotech, brokerage, and transportation are all moderately lower... The latter should not come as a surprise as the price of crude oil has risen 1%, to $43.35/bbl...
The Russian government recently ruled Yukos, its largest oil exporter currently filing for bankruptcy, is banned from using bank accounts for payment of crude oil production and transport... The climb in crude oil has no doubt played a part in the market's inability to take out key technical levels...NYSE Adv/Dec 1059/1729, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1014/1549

[Maeve]

31. I can't stay away when things go like this...

Seems to have hit a cliff...
Dow 10,068.77 -57.74 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,841.54 -13.52 (-0.73%)
S&P 500 1,091.23 -7.40 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% -0.033

[JNelson6563]

32. Summit? No, plummet.

Dow 10,044.51 -82.00 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,835.04 -20.02 (-1.08%)
S&P 500 1,087.43 -11.20 (-1.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.392% -0.037

12:08 and things are looking grim. Ugh.

Hope all you Marketeers are having a good day. Take cover.

Cheers,
Julie

[Maeve]

33. 1:21 red scare

Red ink, that is!
Dow 10,041.26 -85.25 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,836.16 -18.90 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,088.68 -9.95 (-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.392% -0.037

[54anickel]

34. 2:16 and WTF is happening?

I step out for a couple of hours and come back to a stinkin' bloody mess.

Dow 10,030.28 -96.23 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 1,833.34 -21.72 (-1.17%)
S&P 500 1,087.40 -11.23 (-1.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% -0.033
NYSE Volume 886,196,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,011,833,000

2:00PM: Stocks pare their losses some but have yet to stage any kind of meaningful recovery effort... The elevated price of crude oil - now at its 5th straight record high ($44.38/bbl, up almost 4% on the day) - continues to sideline buyers cognizant of its (leading) role in trading lately... Consumer discretionary issues have been slammed off the implication the consumer may cutback spending... This was a trend we saw in Q2 (June) - when personal spending slowed to its weakest rate in 3 years as gasoline began to climb higher Good call the other day UIA & Maeve - and one investors hope to see end in Q3...
This makes the July employment report all the more important with worries about the faltering consumer present - the nonfarm payrolls numbers must come close to the consensus (+243K) to ease private spending concerns...NYSE Adv/Dec 977/2171, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 991/1953

1:30PM: Major indices continue to trudge along their worst levels with little turn in the sector action... Virtually every industry group has taken a hit in the selling drive - with the lone exception being homebuilding... That group, however, has seen its gains shaved off to 0.2%... The small-cap and mid-cap issues have - once again - been disproportionately punished in the retreat... The S&P 400 Mid-cap Index and the Russell 2000 have dropped 1.2% as traders have reduced exposure to (what is perceived to be) more risk-oriented issues...

Both areas enjoyed a strong run in 2003, but are down 1% and 3%, respectively, year-to-date, as investors continue to assume a cautious investing stance.... NYSE Adv/Dec 997/2131, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 997/1915

1:00PM: Selling remains the name of the game as the market continues to head lower...Down volume now outpaces up volume by a more than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq and a roughly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE... Technology and financial - two sectors that constitute more than 30% of the S&P 500 - have both fallen more than 1% and suggested the likelihood of a market turnaround are low at this point... Crude oil has just broken the $44/bbl mark and neared the $44.34/bbl record set early yesterday... Should crude oil blow through this level, traders can expect further selling...NYSE Adv/Dec 967/2086

12:30PM : Stocks sit near their worst levels of the day - the sell-off having abated but the market none better for it... The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 each tumbled 85, 21, and 9 points, respectively, in the past hour as the price of crude oil jumped to nearly $44/bbl... The commodity has been on a steady climb higher (up from about $30/bbl in January) this year despite predications it would stabilize if various factors (increased OPEC quotas, for instance) fell into place...

None of these, though, have alleviated pressing supply concerns as demand continues to rise and geopolitical worries (terrorist attack, a potential strike in Nigeria, an upcoming presidential election in Venezuela) linger... The impending YUKOS bankruptcy has not helped matters either... For more insight into this, be sure to visit Briefing.com's Daily Sector Wrap from Friday, July 30...NYSE Adv/Dec 944/2133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 935/1924

12:00PM : The equity market opened on a neutral note, but soon gave way to selling pressure as sector leadership collapsed and crude oil turned higher... The commodity has continued to be a weather vane for the major indices - its 3% turn lower yesterday prompting a rally, and its 1% move higher today provoking a pullback... It retreat comes on news that Yukos - the large Russian exporter - will not be able to use bank accounts (as previously presumed) for payment of crude oil production and transport...

The decision has sent energy shares noticeably lower for their second day in a row, and they have taken with them transportation (airline, auto), biotech, industrial, and telecom service as well... Retail has also been a large loser today, following the morning's disappointing July same store sales results... Few retailers revised quarterly estimates higher, and most missed Briefing.com consensus estimates... The only area, in fact, to find buying interest at this juncture (session lows) has been homebuilding... The group has benefited from both the bond market's rally (yield on the 10-year down to 4.39%) and Toll Brothers's (TOL 41.99 +1.02) encouraging Q3 (July) preliminary update...

Like most earnings news, economic data this morning were upbeat.... Weekly jobless claims dropped 11K to 336K (consensus of 340K) and marked their lowest level since July 3... The strong report, however, has not put fears about tomorrow's employment report to rest - a reason that has also prevented broad-based buying this morning...NYSE Adv/Dec 1001/2035, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 966/1859

[54anickel]

36. Oil Soars to New Highs on YUKOS Saga

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5886875

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil prices soared to new record highs on Thursday after the a decision by the Russian government to revoke oil major YUKOS' permit to use its bank accounts to finance operations put the company's crude exports under fresh threat.

U.S. crude jumped to an all-time high of $44.40 a barrel, standing $1.37 higher by 1630 GMT to $44.20. London Brent futures rose $1.52 to $41.22 a barrel -- also another record high.

Markets have now shrugged off bearish news that pushed prices about a dollar lower in the previous session as the YUKOS news underscored the precariousness of global energy supplies.

Russia's Justice Ministry said on Thursday that permission granted by one bailiff, sent to YUKOS only on Wednesday and made public by the oil firm, was illegal and therefore withdrawn. The company has been battling bankruptcy, with tax debts of $3.4 billion.

"All financial means entering the company's accounts now and in future, will be seized by the bailiffs' service and transferred to the budget to pay the tax debt," the ministry said in a statement.

more...

[54anickel]

37. European Economies: Bank of England Increases Rates (No to bubbles?)

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.75 percent, the highest in almost three years, as record consumer borrowing and faster economic growth threaten to boost inflation.

The Monetary Policy Committee increased its main lending rate for a fifth time since November. The move, expected by all 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, further widens the gap with the 12-nation euro region, where the European Central Bank left rates at a six-decade low of 2 percent today.

The U.K. economy, Europe's second biggest, grew at the fastest pace in almost four years in the second quarter and household debt topped 1 trillion pounds ($1.8 trillion) in June for the first time. The Bank of England said today there are signs that the ``buoyant'' housing market is starting to ease and growth in consumer spending may be moderating.

``They have reached a balance and they will leave it until the inflation report in November before they raise rates again,'' said Geoffrey Dicks, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London.

more...

[54anickel]

38. US 30-year mortgage rates under 6 pct--Freddie Mac

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5885976

WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Interest rates on U.S. 30-year mortgages fell under 6 percent this week, while rates on 15-year and adjustable mortgages also eased, mortgage finance company Freddie Mac said on Thursday.
U.S. 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.99 percent in the week ended Aug. 5 compared with 6.08 percent a week earlier, Freddie Mac said.

Freddie Mac said 15-year mortgages averaged 5.40 percent, down from 5.49 percent last week. One-year adjustable rate mortgages dipped to an average of 4.08 percent from 4.17 percent last week.

"Additional economic indicators this week confirmed that June was a weak month for the nation as a whole. Consequently, the upward pressure on interest rates eased, allowing mortgage rates to return to earlier, lower levels," Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, said in a statement.

"Inventories of available homes for sale are very tight right now. Fortunately, mortgage rates have been most accommodating for homebuyers lately, which allows families looking for a new home the additional time needed to find their home of choice," Nothaft said.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Bad for stocks, good for gold?

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={9F1AAB6C-E97F-4635-A67B-D0C331EE0BC3}

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks may be suspiciously soggy. But are the advisers, on average, ominously optimistic?

That may be so, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest's surveys of investment letter sentiment.

The HFD looks at the actual exposure to various financial instruments recommended by the letters, rather than parse the vague and possibly (say it ain't so!) deceptive mutterings.

Right now, however, you can easily find very plain-spoken bulls and bears.

For the bulls, Don Hayes of Hayes Market Advisory could hardly be more explicit, or colorful:

"...two more weeks and then the Bull's offense is going to absolutely massacre, run over, cream the Bear's Defense. What will cause it -- it's only a guess, but I'm guessing that it will be either a decided shift in Presidential Election Survey results favoring the Republicans who are definitely more in the majority in the Investment world, or maybe a sharp break in the price of oil; or maybe like Madeline Albright speculated, they will take Osama bin Laden off the dialysis machine in the White House basement in handcuffs and do the Perp Walk for the cameras."

For the bears, Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters is positively apocalyptical about the economy, because of what he calls the "debt squeeze," but slightly more restrained about the market. (He did, however, hint artfully that Wednesday's last-minute recovery might be because "someone" didn't want a close below 10,000).

Russell is bearish but waiting for a break either way on much higher volume.

You pay your money (quite a lot in the case of Hayes' institutionally-oriented service) and take your choice.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Lemonade for Sale

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO_August_2004.htm

snip>

So it is with today’s craze for hedge funds. Longer term returns for both stocks and bonds are sinking through the double-digit return line and moving perilously close to 0% for a growing number of longer term time periods. Since Wall Street has left the real estate commissions to the Century 21s of the world, there seems few attractive investments left to generate the fees upon which to support that summer home in Amagansett. Enter stage left – the hedge fund. Now let’s be honest here. Wall Street does benefit enormously from the growing boom in HFs. Such funds are estimated to provide $10 billion annually or more than 7% of the Street’s total revenue via trading commissions. In addition, fees for loans, back-office clearance, and even matchmaking or client introduction services run into the billions as well. But the Street is not the only seller of mining equipment in this hedge fund gold rush. There are now over 7,000 hedge funds managing nearly a trillion dollars of assets, all offering the hope of near double-digit returns in a much lower return investment world. And the price tag averages 2 and 20 – 2% annual fixed expenses and 20% of the profits.



While I haven’t come to praise hedge funds, I won’t be the first to bury them either. In any event, their undertaking won’t need a Bill Gross, Jim Grant, or William Donaldson to do the dirty work. The previously cited financial metronome will serve as a convenient gravedigger no doubt as greed leads to intense competition and excessive fees. Both of these should eventually reduce the product’s average investment return to something approaching mediocrity, and mediocrity rarely sells on Wall Street or Newport Beach for that matter. But it’s not just the competition and costs that should spell the eventual demise of the hedge fund craze. It’s the realization – advanced here perhaps – that hedge funds can be manufactured in everyone’s backyard like a gallon of Kentucky moonshine with revenue stamps attached, no less. You can start your own “hedge fund” and do almost all of the things the hedgies do without the “2 and 20.” Steven Galbraith, principal at Maverick Capital, a leading hedge fund, recently was quoted as saying that, “The barriers to entry in this business are nonexistent. It’s roughly equivalent to creating a lemonade stand.” He may not have known how right he really was. The chart below confirms the sale of a lot of lemonade in the last few years, but it neglects the potential for a do-it-yourself home brew.

What is a hedge fund? Supposedly the genre revolves around an ability to buy assets that will go up in price, sell ones that go down in price and if things don’t move too much, to capture yield or carry during the wait. Somehow, with the exception of shorting, that sounds like the standard active management dictum that has been around for nearly half a century now. Of course proponents claim that HFs attract the industry’s best talent and that the fees provide a significant incentive to identify and focus on winning strategies. Poor babies; thanks to capitalism, HF managers have had the ability to move out from under the oppression of investment management firms that are paying them a paltry few million dollars in bonuses a year at their own shops where they can wring 5, 10, 15 million or more if they make really good lemonade.



Actually their wizardry in my opinion has little to do with buying or selling the right stocks at the right time and everything to do with leverage. Hedge funds in reality are just unregulated banks, operating on a poorly disclosed amount of equity capital and taking the spread between their cost of funds and their riskier and longer dated assets. How much equity capital and therefore how much leverage is a fair question without reliable answers. Grants Interest Rate Observer in a recent issue, while asserting that nearly three quarters of HFs use leverage, surprisingly released their own survey showing $3 of assets on average for every $1 of capital, a figure that would stand in conservative contrast to banks at $10 per $1 of capital. I have my doubts, not because of Grants, which is a well-written and researched bi-weekly, but because the industry’s “advertised” returns require a much healthier dose. Banks after all, provide historical returns of 1¼% on assets and via 10 to 1 leverage manage to up that return to 13-14% on equity. Granted there are very few equity equivalents in bank portfolios but with poor to negative returns for stocks over the past 4 years it’s difficult to believe that the hedgies can come close to double-digit returns without a much healthier dose of leverage. Those returns may be coming through their use of derivatives which themselves are levered many times over. Whatever the amount, to my thinking it’s leverage, not the investment acumen of 7,000 hedge fund managers that makes this mare go.

more...

[Doosh]

41. 3:24, below the Mendoza Line

DJIA -133.62 9,992.89 -1.32

[54anickel]

42. Terrorists Rule the Roost

Excuse the dig on Dems at the end.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rockwell/roost.html

snip>

Why were these warnings different from the warnings issued every few weeks from Washington? Because they supposedly contained specific plans. We are talking vague insinuations of an attack. Instead of finding a note or hearing a cell phone call that said: "We will attack you!" this warning was based on intelligence that said: "We will attack financial centers in New York and Washington!!!" Wow, now that's something to cry wolf about. What do we pay governments for except to alert us to impending threats? As President Bush says, this is "a serious business."

What attracted far less attention was the news that came out two days later: these warnings about specific attacks were years old. Remarkably, they predated the September 11 attacks. They were based on some years-old scribblings found in Pakistan, and attributed to Al Qaeda, but of course no one really knows who wrote them. They are nothing other than notes about security arrangements at these locations – arrangements long ago changed. The terrorists abandoned the plans but Washington clings to them as if they are of utmost value.

snip>

What about the announcement that suspects had been found with blueprints and had practiced "test runs"? Whoops, sorry. That was a mistake. Just not true. Still, officials assured us that these buildings might still be a target. Let's hope that the bureaucrats don't discover MapQuest. They would mistake it for an al Qaeda project, or at least deduce that terrorists could use this information, and declare the whole of the inhabited world at high risk for terrorist attacks.

snip>

If the terrorists didn't exist, the government would have to invent them. Sometimes it seems like the government has invented them. It certainly has invented the conception of what is called al Qaeda. Buried in the 9-11 report was the discovery that Bin Laden hadn't funded the terrorists after all, three years after we had been constantly assured that the shadowy figures who flew planes into skyscrapers could not have been acting on their own. Well, it turns out that their money was in fact their own. What public officials don't want you to know is that what we call terrorists seek to enact vengeance against the US for its foreign policy. They don't hate our "Way of Life."

more...

[54anickel]

43. Torture, Lies, and the Little Bush Who Cried Wolf (also linked at 321gold)

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/080504A.shtml

snip>

Rebuffed on all sides, Ridge dropped the other shoe. "When you see this kind of detailed planning, you have to take preemptive action to prevent it from occurring," he declared.

Pre-emptive warnings, pre-emptive war - he had chosen the perfect word.

Reporters pressed on. One question was obvious, except to willing fools and those who pretend to believe in the sanctity of our governing institutions.

Did Secretary Ridge go Code Orange to help his president's re-election campaign? Was he trying to drown out the favorable public reaction to John Kerry following the Democratic National Convention, as Howard Dean had impolitely suggested?.

"We don't do politics in the Department of Homeland Security," Mr. Ridge intoned in a wonderfully self-righteous way. "It's not about politics. It's about confidence in government telling you when they get the information."

Ah, quoth Hamlet, there's the rub. Having so misused intelligence information to take America into a pre-emptive war in Iraq, and now playing the same game with Iran, Team Bush could hardly expect anyone to take them at their word. Even the stock markets, which normally go down when investors fear anything unexpected, climbed happily up in the face of the latest alert.

more...

[54anickel]

44. 3:42 in the final stretch

Dow 9,995.70 -130.81 (-1.29%)
Nasdaq 1,826.54 -28.52 (-1.54%)
S&P 500 1,084.50 -14.13 (-1.29%)
10-yr Bond 4.400% -0.029
30-yr Bond 5.150% -0.021
NYSE Volume 1,213,824,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,363,527,000

3:30PM : Sellers keep the pressure on as the indices hold near their worst levels of the session... It has been that kind of day as participants have found little incentive to buy stocks in the face of pressing concerns about earnings growth that have been exacerbated by rising oil prices and relatively disappointing same-store sales for July... A strong jobs report for July should help temper the tide of bearish sentiment for the time being... The employment data are due to be released tomorrow at 08:30 ET...
Separately, it is worth noting that Reuters Estimates shows that the Q3 consensus operating earnings estimate for the S&P 500 has actually risen by $0.04 in the past four weeks to $16.45 while the Q4 consensus estimate has risen by $0.15 to $17.09...NYSE Adv/Dec 977/2249, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 913/2108

3:00PM : The low volume sell-off persists with the indices hitting new lows for the day amid what looks to be some program trading activity... Selling interest is broad-based as evidenced by the fact that only two Dow components - Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.52, +0.08) and Disney (DIS 22.51, +0.02) - are sporting gains for the session... With the spike in oil prices, the positive action in the Treasury market may seem a bit counter-intuitive, but inflation concerns are being trumped by the view that higher oil prices will slow economic activity...

To be sure, high oil prices have certainly slowed the airline stocks as the AMEX Airline Index (XAL 43.45, -1.33) is down 29.2% year-to-date and down 25% from its interim peak of 58.12 on June 28... NYSE Adv/Dec 1091/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1020/1978

2:30PM : Indices are trolling near their worst levels of the session, but bottom fishers haven't been eager to take the rebound bait just yet as the spike in crude prices (+$1.57 at $44.40/bbl), the lack of industry leadership, and nervousness ahead of the July employment report have kept buying interest in check... Strength in the market is limited mostly to individual issues, however, the homebuilding group is bucking the trend, as it has caught a bid on Toll Brothers' (TOL 41.7, +0.73) encouraging update on unit orders and backlog...

The drop in the 10-yr yield is also helping as it is the primary benchmark for mortgage rates... NYSE Adv/Dec 1020/2156, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 933/2035

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1001 (29%) 892 (27%)
Declines 2231 (65%) 2145 (67%)
Unchanged 165 (4%) 160 (5%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 209 (18%) 263 (20%)
Down Vol* 902 (80%) 1020 (78%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (0%) 11 (0%)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 26 16
New Lo's 69 120

[54anickel]

45. 3:46 DOW at 9981.46 and falling fast - not much hope for 10K

[54anickel]

46. Ewww, that's gonna leave a bruise!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^DJI&t=1d
DOW
Index Value: 9,971.35
Trade Time: 3:50PM ET
Change: 155.16 (1.53%)
Prev Close: 10,126.51
Open: 10,127.10
Day's Range: 9,971.20 - 10,129.09
52wk Range: 8,997.11 - 10,753.63


Edit to add S&P and Nasdaq as well - What the heck. 52 week ranges are getting rather interesting to watch.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=1d
S&P
Index Value: 1,081.29
Trade Time: 3:53PM ET
Change: 17.34 (1.58%)
Prev Close: 1,098.63
Open: 1,098.63
Day's Range: 1,081.29 - 1,098.73
52wk Range: 960.96 - 1,163.09

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^IXIC&t=1d
Nasdaq
Index Value: 1,820.88
Trade Time: 3:55PM ET
Change: 34.18 (1.84%)
Prev Close: 1,855.06
Open: 1,856.99
Day's Range: 1,820.21 - 1,859.77
52wk Range: 1,640.88 - 2,153.83

[ozone_man]

49. S&P breaking through 200 day moving average?

Doesn't look good.

[54anickel]

51. Yep, all 3 in the same boat on the 50 and 200 MA. Gonna need to do

some hefty lifting from here. But hey, no problem! I'm sure they'll magically pop right up there. Maybe tomorrow with some good news on the job front.:eyes:

They always come back up, right? Uh, isn't that right? *crickets*

[daleo]

47. Looks like the PPT were AWOL today

That's a big drop. I wonder how they will spin this.

[54anickel]

52. Maybe the PPT is out of money too. Perhaps playing the oil speculation

game too much these days. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

48. A bit from the Daily Reckoning

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/sub/signuphub.cfm?List=DailyReckon&sourceid=321Gold

Tom Dyson, just a stone's throw from the Washington Monument...

- It's going to be a frenetic few days in the bond market. On Friday, we get the reading for July's nonfarm payrolls. Then on Tuesday, the market will be captivated by the penultimate Federal Open Market Committee meeting before the election.

- "I've never seen a Fed tightening cycle where someone didn't go through the windshield." Stephen Roach was scaring people on a recent conference call. We had dialed into to the call at Morgan Stanley to learn something about the unwinding of carry trades. What transpired was more like a radio creep show.

- With the CPI at 3% and nominal interest rates at 1.4%, Roach reminded us that we are currently living with a negative real interest rate in the region of -1.6%. (Roach uses the median year-over-year change in the CPI versus the fed funds target rate.) We haven't seen real interest rates at these levels since the late 1970s, he said, drawing a direct connection to the extremely poor equity returns of the period.

- Then in late 1993 and 1994, the last time the Fed raised rates aggressively - from 3% to 6% in under 12 months - we witnessed what Roach labeled "the worst performance ever by the bond market." During the melee, real interest rates had quickly climbed by nearly 5%.

- The stock market has, broadly speaking, been in a sweet spot underpinned by the most "relaxed rates in history," he argued. "But as the potential for another 1994-style bond meltdown gains momentum, this may be about to change."

more...

[54anickel]

50. Closing time - Could we get a bucket and mop down here please?

I will edit for the updated blather when it comes out. May be a bit late as they try to come up with something upbeat.

Dow 9,963.03 -163.48 (-1.61%)
Nasdaq 1,821.63 -33.43 (-1.80%)
S&P 500 1,080.70 -17.93 (-1.63%)
10-yr Bond 4.400% -0.029
30-yr Bond 5.150% -0.021
NYSE Volume 1,397,353,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,550,465,000

Close: Rising oil prices and disappointing same-store sales for July from the retailers combined to undercut the stock market today as each, in its own way, contributed to concerns about the pace of earnings growth in coming quarters... Crude futures, in fact, hit a new record high of $44.50/bbl before closing the session at $44.41, up 3.7%... The spike in prices followed news reports that Russia's Justice Ministry said "nyet" with respect to Yukos being able to use previously frozen funds to pay for day-to-day operations...
Recall that oil prices fell yesterday afternoon on a report that ministry bailiffs authorized Yukos to use frozen funds... That authorization was revoked, though, on the opinion that it was not based on legal norms... The striking flip-flop sparked a torrent of uncertainty regarding Yukos's fate and simply exacerbated already pressing supply concerns... The major indices slipped in the face of the oil price spike and showed virtually no inclination to forge a rebound effort due to a notable lack of industry leadership and the market's poor technical condition...(They're a lot poorer now!)

To that end, the Nasdaq faltered early in the session at a primary resistance point (i.e. 1865/1869 level) and kept right on falling through a couple of support zones (1845/1842 and 1832/1829) with selling activity accelerating into the close... The closing slide left the Nasdaq at a new closing low for the year and took the Dow below the psychological barrier of 10,000... Market internals reflected the broad-based selling interest as decliners swamped advancers; meanwhile, down volume outpaced up volume by nearly an 8-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq...

Retail, and specifically apparel, was the S&P's biggest weak spot with names like Gap (GPS 19.79, -1.59), TJX Cos. (TJX 21.49, -1.34), and Wal-Mart (WMT 52.05, -1.14) posting notable losses... There wasn't a single S&P industry group with a gain of more than 0.3% and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 20.50, +0.06) was the only Dow component that didn't trade lower for the day... The Treasury market got some help from the stock market's misfortune as the 10-yr note gained six ticks to lower its yield to 4.39%... The positive move was a bit counter-intuitive in light of the spike in oil prices, but inflation concerns were trumped by the view that higher oil prices will slow economic activity...(interesting....)

Tomorrow the July employment report, and particularly the nonfarm payrolls number, will serve as the trading catalyst; today, nervousness ahead of the report contributed to the selling interest... The consensus estimate is for an increase of 243K positions; Briefing.com is forecasting a gain of 215K... In our estimation, anything over 175K should help alleviate concerns about the economic slowdown...(Keep lowering the bar, don't they)NYSE Adv/Dec 886/2362, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 831/2242



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 916 (26%) 778 (24%)
Declines 2313 (67%) 2278 (70%)
Unchanged 182 (5%) 166 (5%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 162 (12%) 202 (13%)
Down Vol* 1086 (85%) 1234 (84%)
Unch. Vol* 25 (1%) 33 (2%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 27 17
New Lo's 76 134


Have a great night Marketeers! :hi:

[JNelson6563]

53. What a bloodbath!

I caught a moment of CNBC about a half hour before market close, DOW was between -110 and -120. Was shocked to see these numbers. If they didn't make tomorrow's numbers real pretty we could see lots more nastiness. Treasuries didn't fare very well, where'd the money go?

:shrug:

Catch you Marketeers in the AM! :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

54. Where'd the money go? Good question and it's come up a couple

of times this week when everything (except oil) was down. Not a pretty sight today, but we'll see what tomorrow brings!

Good to see ya Julie, and keep up all the great work out there on the front lines.

[JNelson6563]

56. Thanks 54!

I can only imagine what tomorrow holds! Ugh.

Julie

[Zorra]

55. Are corporations realizing the war in Iraq is investor kool-aid?

[NeoConsSuck]

57. Two Words: GOODBYE CHIMP