Jobless claims fell to 336, 000 in latest week from revised 347,000

[papau]

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

August 5, 2004 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 336,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 347,000. The 4-week moving average was 343,500, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 336,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 24, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 24 was 2,911,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,946,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,900,000, an increase of 13,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,887,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 280,886 in the week ending July 31, a decrease of 35,961 from the previous week. There were 333,770 initial claims in the comparable week in 2003.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent during the week ending July 24, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,823,796, a decrease of 113,271 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,508,332.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/05/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm

Jobless claims fall
Government report shows 346,000 filed for first time benefits, less than week earlier and forecasts (Filings have averaged 345,387 this year -The four-week moving average rose to 343,500 from 336,750)
August 5, 2004: 8:32 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The number of people filing for initial jobless claims declined last week, according to a government report Thursday, with fewer filings than analysts expected.

The Labor Department reported that 336,000 filed for first time jobless benefits in the week ended July 31. That's down from the revised reading of 347,000 who filed the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast 340,000 would be filing for assistance.<snip>

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/03/news/economy/challenger/index.htm

Job cut plans jump in July
Plans by U.S. firms to trim payrolls surge, as hiring plans fall, employment firm says.
August 3, 2004: 1:19 PM EDT
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The number of job cuts planned by U.S. employers rose in July, while hiring announcements fell for the second straight month, an outplacement firm said Tuesday.

The report came just days before the government's critical gauges of unemployment and job growth in July, but did little to clarify how strong those measures would be.

U.S. businesses announced 69,572 job cuts in July, up from 64,343 job cuts in June, a gain of 8 percent, according to Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which keeps track of monthly job-cut announcements.

July's announcements were 18 percent lower than those of July 2003, when 85,117 cuts were announced<snip>

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/world/US/two_economies_CSM_040804.html
The Two Economies
The Economy Is Growing and Jobs are Being Created But Wages Don't Keep Up

By David R. Francis Aug. 4, 2004 — There may or may not be "two Americas," but when it comes to the economy, there are certainly two widely differing views.<snip>

Democrats say the economy may be growing, but it's creating neither enough jobs to match the growth of the labor force nor enough well-paying ones to keep pace with inflation. And Bush's tax cuts have helped mainly the rich.<snip>

=======================
The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.75 percent, the highest in almost three years, as record consumer borrowing and faster economic growth threaten to boost inflation. UK manufacturing in June fell at its sharpest monthly pace since October 2002, government figures showed today. Factory output, which accounts for 17 percent of the economy, fell 0.7 percent after a 0.5 percent gain in May. Industrial production, which also includes utilities and mines, fell 0.3 percent.

[Bowline]

1. Well, at least there is SOME good news on the labor front.

I wonder what kind of jobs this refers to?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

2. How about seasonal construction and landscaping jobs? How about...

...temporary, part-time, and contractual jobs? How about jobs outsourced to other countries like India, Canada, and Mexico? How about commission-only sales jobs?

[mhr]

3. Good News - What Good News - Millions Are Still Unemployed

For example, look at how Bush has screwed the Dallas, TX economy!

[papau]

4. I liked how Bloomberg hid the rise in the 4 week average

Usually on upticks, Bloomberg will say do not look at current week - look at 4 week average!

No bias overthere!

:-)

[mhr]

8. Papau - I Truly Appreciate Your Posts. As One Of The Long-Term

Unemployed, I can contribute only anecdotes. Yet, my anecdotes and the stories of others paint a labor picture that is gloomy at best and most likely quite frightening.

Every one that I speak with tells the same story - highly educated workers that are unemployed, underemployed, or overworked in their present positions. I do not meet many that are satisfied and happy.

When one experiences and hears these anecdotes long enough, they become markers of long term trends that represent a reality not captured by the press. The pResident can claim we have "turned the corner"; however, that is not the feeling on the street.

[papau]

24. Thanks :-)

:-)

[Frodo]

11. Watch for what they say next week.

Remember that the week rolling off the average is the one that was incredibly low (310k?) because the seasonal adjustment assumed it was the week of the big auto-plant layoffs. Since that happened a week later than expected, we had one week of unseasonably low claims followed by a higher-than-average week when the layoffs occurred.

So the real question is "how will they report next week?" when the four week average will likely fall even if the one week number goes up. If they ignore both, fine (that's probably as it should be). But if they draw attention to the 4-wk number that they know is temporarily skewed, we'll all know what happened.

[Longhorn79]

5. Looks like it may have bottomed out

I'm in Austin, which has a similar curve on your chart. Maybe the "slopes" will keep up.

[papau]

6. Years average is 345387, 4 week ave is 343500 - bottomed out?

Filings have averaged 345,387 this year -The four-week moving average rose to 343,500 from 336,750

Seems pretty steady and unchanging!

:-)

[Longhorn79]

10. I'm just looking at the chart that was posted in the Texas area

I wasn't referring to the whole country.

I should note, though, that the current jobless claims being close to the year's average says exactly nothing about the trend.

[papau]

13. True - looks like I should have posted this graph so we could see trend

[Frodo]

15. Ooooh! A new chart source?

Me likes.


But I still prefer one that goes back farther (it doesn't make it look like we have such spectacular numbers). It also highlights the gap in continued claims (or was that "continuous" claims?).

[TahitiNut]

17. That's a better picture, imho.

It shows the huge uptick in continued claims for the last 2.5 years. This shows how unemployment claims are prolonged - people with UI benefits aren't finding jobs. This is a clear indicator of the resulting underemployment syndrome: people taking jobs, when they can, for significantly less pay.

Despite Pollyanna-like claims that the employment picture is "improving," there's absolutely nothing empirical to support such optimism.

[Ignis]

26. It also shows the BushCo dynasty heritage.

And it's a sad sign that the American voting public just doesn't learn from past mistakes.

[Samurai_Writer]

7. More people falling off the unemployment rolls

These numbers just go to show that there are more long-term unemployed than ever. They drop off the rolls, and suddenly 'unemployment is down'. Disgusting.

[kikiek]

9. That's what conclusion I drew from this rather than types of jobs.

Doesn't really address any job creation just numbers of people applying for unemployment. Fall off the roll when it runs out. Probably one of the reasons the repugs refused to extend the benefits. If they fall off the unemployment roll or come off because they actually have a job doesn't matter . We all know it isn't about what is actually good for people it's about how it reflects on those in power.

[ClintonTyree]

12. One of the financial "Geru's"..........

on CNBC said the country "is at full employment right now". I shit you not, he said that.

They're trying their damndest to talk up this shitty economy.

[Frodo]

16. Living in the past. WAY in the past.

Economists used to count 6% unemployment as "full employment" and assumed that anything sustained below that level was inflationary.

Then came Clinton.




Truly, anything in the 5's is a better-than-average number, but it's by comparison that things hurt.

It's silly to call it "full employment" today.

[TahitiNut]

19. Here's a "full employment" comparison graphic.

The zero-X-axis corresponds to employment growth at the average rate (due primarily to population growth) as seen over the past 50 years. It's fairly easy to envision a hypothetical lower rate of "full employment" merely by imagining the line to be slightly lower. No matter how one envisions it, the decimation of the working class under DimSon is fairly clear.

[Frodo]

20. That kind of chart leaves too much out.

I'd rather just look at unemployment rate over time.

This chart assumes that the number of people who want/need a job goes up in a straight line. That's simply not the truth. The unemployment rate compares the numebr of people working to the number of people who want/need to work. That's much more relevant.

[TahitiNut]

21. Nonsense.

First of all, it assumes almost nothing. Second, it's not a "straight line" but exponential, where the exponent is relatively low and relatively stable (low deviance). Third, it rests upon a fairly fundamental truth: that both the demand for products and services and the supply of labor are driven by population growth.

The "unemployment rate" on the other hand is hugely susceptible to "discouraged" job-seekers. In other words, the very conditions we're interested in have a hysteresis effect on the underlying metric we use to measure the number of unemployed: size of workforce.

Employment, on the other hand, is a fairly direct way of measuring the number of people who are economically enfranchised: receiving monetary compensation for their labor.

There's a fundamental truth here: not all "work" is compensated. In an anecdotal sense, anyone who has kept their job in a business that had a layoff knows that the amount of work never decreases to the same degree that the number of employees decrease. What happens is that much of the work is shifted to remaining employees who bear the burden largely without compensation. The same holds true for "USA Inc."

[Frodo]

22. Read that first paragraph again and tell me what you missed.

Here's a hint: "a fairly fundamental truth: that both the demand for products and services and the supply of labor are driven by population growth."

Driven in part, certainly. But there are other factors that can really throw this off. Factors that are naturally accounted for by the unemployment rate. Which BTW, handles "discouraged" workers just fine. To assume otherwise forces you to call the respondents liars.

[Yavin4]

14. People Are Taking Whatever Jobs That Are Out There

They're taking the temp jobs, the low end service sector jobs, whatever instead of filing a new UE claim. Many people have given up the hope of finding another job comparable to the one that they lost.

[InkAddict]

18. Watch your back!

It's just that I have this continuing paranoid nightmare perception that Bank One in cooperation w/IT consultant firms are purposely making financial hell for DEMOCRATS. Don't cha know, DEMS "don't fit in." It was probably not that expensive for them to purchase the list of state Dem registrants, huh? Or, does their failure to honor contracts w/new hires somehow fall within the "faith-based" rulings? I didn't know the :dem: was the newest "G-d Dam'd by George" new religion? I guess this isn't a problem for CEOs Bigbucks, but it's a HUGE problem for me as I can't pay for food, shelter, utilities, gasoline let alone have disposable income for keeping the CPI from tanking.

Either way, all you people with peasant jobs will soon be paying more to run those UE camps when Halliburton comes home, or blood will be on your heads for the mass AmeriKan classocidal executions coming to a soccer field near you. /rant off.

UE claim filed mid June - still no check - COULD IT BE THAT THE CLAIM IS LOST JUST LIKE *Select's military records? Has this particular claim even been counted since then under "new claims filed?" The numbers are pure FICTION.

[William Bloode]

23. For my own sanity......

I am going to put a positive spin on this for myself today. I am just wondering what tomorrows job creation numbers will show us.

[BrotherBuzz]

25. In other headlines...

Hooverville Herald reports 11,000 citizens have lost their unemployment benefits, and with few options left, are no longer counted by the feds. However, Hooverville mayor, Mr. Quimby, is upbeat and says "prosperity is just around the corner". "I see things picking up", mayor Quimby said, "in fact just yesterday, I saw an entire family picking up cardboard behind the Walmart store". Residents of Hooverville report a building boom in recent months in the housing sector and are happy to see their needs being met. Hooverville resident and ace contractor, Joe Six-pack commented, as he took a moment to trim the tatters from his truck's American flag, that the demand for housing has really put a strain on local resources but thinks we'll reach our goal of 'A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage'. "Funny", he said, "just a short four years ago, with Clinton in office, I couldn't give these hovels away, and now I'm thinking of going condo - Ain't America great?".

[struggle4progress]

27. The average picture over the last three years simply stinks ...

I did a (quick and dirty) look at the difference between the hire rate and separation rate from BLS data, from Jan 2001 to Apr 2004 (for which allegedly final stats has been posted). Taking the difference, month by month, and averaging, shows a static job economy, with overall average monthly declines in some sectors and overall average monthly increases in others:

average monthly total private hire rate has been essentially equal to the separation rate (0.00% difference)

average monthly total nonfarm hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.05%

average monthly construction hire rate has lagged behind the separation rate by 0.14%

average monthly manufacturing hire rate has lagged behind the separation rate by 0.58%

average monthly trade, transportation, and utilities hire rate has lagged behind the separation rate by 0.08%

average monthly professional and business services hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.39%

average monthly education and health services hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.33%

average monthly leisure and hospitality hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.15%

average monthly government hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.31%

average monthly natural resources and mining hire rate has lagged behind the separation rate by 0.26%

average monthly information hire rate has lagged behind the separation rate by 0.11%

average monthly financial activities hire rate has exceeded the separation rate by 0.05%

average monthly other services hire rate lagged behind the separation rate by 0.08%

(data based on http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?jt )

So overall, there's no job growth; construction, manufacturing, and mining jobs continue to disappear, together with info tech jobs; looks like people without jobs are returning to school, while "hospitality" offers new jobs (clearing tables and making beds); job growth occurs mainly in government and in "professional and business services" (does this mean serving as a broker for outsourcing deals?).