Iraqi south threatens break up

[Flint-oid]

Deputy Governor of Basra Salam Ouda al-Malki has said he is to announce the separation of some Iraqi southern governorates from the central government in Baghdad.

Informed sources told Aljazeera that al-Maliki said the breakaway province would include Basra, Misan and Dhi Qar governorates.

He also wants to shut Basra's port, and effectively stop oil exports.

read here

[Lithos]

1. No shock if it does

However, I think this would be yet another disaster for US foreign policy.

L-

[jeff30997]

2. Beginning to look like a civil war.

[Tight_rope]

50. I agree with you there...it has the makings of it.

[amber dog democrat]

3. It never was a real nation to begin with.

From the Ottoman Turks to the Brittish Empire - Iraq seems to be cobbled together from various disparate cultural regions and held together by force.
Once the wraps come off it is interesting to see how things progress.

I am reminded of Yugoslavia.

[Eloriel]

5. Actually, it's my understanding it did just fine under the

firm hand of a dictator.

In fact (warning: heresy about to occur), before the war as I was considering all the political realities I was reading about re Iraq, it occurred to me that there ARE some places, and times, when a dictatorship is what works best, what's needed to make something work at all. Is that preferred? Of course not, not in the long run and not for the "ideal." Is it humane? Not usually, maybe not ever. Is it "right"? Probably not, certainly not to us. But pragmatically and realistically, dictatorships in troubled areas serve a political purpose. There were some things that were otherwise quite good and right about Iraq, due largely to the fact that it was held together in such a way by a secular leader.

NO ONE should interpret my remarks above as any defense of Saddam Hussein or even of dictatorships in general. But as I said, as I considered all the problems, frictions and tensions inherent in Iraq, I certainly couldn't think of any OTHER alternative that would work, perhaps least of all democracy. (But then we have OUR problems too, don't we?)

Now we shall see the natural outcome of rending a single terribly diverse and somewhat chaotic nation which HAD BEEN functioning as a whole unit (before our intervention) thoroughly asunder. The reverberations are no doubt going to be felt for generations.

Would Iraq have been better off left to its own devices under Saddam? IMO, yes -- as long as he continued to be "contained" from developing WMD. I think it would have been terrific had we (we = the West, or the entire rest of the world) also been able to force better human rights on his regime, but that was NEVER the U.S.'s concern anyway, except as a political trump card.

Most of us who were against this war from the get-go were afraid of just this. Now that it appears to be happening, I say, "Bring it on." Let the chips fall where they may. Most of all, may the Iraqis find peace and their own SOVEREIGNTY, however it shakes out.

[MichiganVote]

6. Julius Ceasar, people loved him and the gov't functioned

[fob]

7. HOW DARE YOU

apply critical thinking to this situation. What are you, a Democrat?

:evilgrin:

Edit: Forgot to add when I came to this thread the thread directly above it was titled Rumsfeld says Iraq has "good crack" at bright future<---- Irony knows no bounds

[amber dog democrat]

8. This underscores my point. I think you are dead on correct.

and for that matter who says we have a functioning democracy here?
but this is what the first Bush Admin feared would happen. Its kind of like the old saying that there was only ONE Yugoslavian, ( Tito ). The rest were various nationalities within.
At this point there is so much precession going on that any thing more the US does will only hasten the destabilization. things are no longer in control and Iraq is going to to its own way.

I am thinking how little the PNAC planners seemed to understand what they were setting loose when they were planning in invasion. Better the demon you know than.... well you get my point.

And isnt it ironic that Sadam was largley created by the US and the CIA ?
We need to let them sort things out and stop stealing their oil .

[Upfront]

12. Thank You Eloriel

The main reason I come here is to read good thinking like this.

[Eloriel]

26. Chuckle

Thanks, but in all honesty, it feels more like "throw up your hands in frustration" thinking (not being able to figure out a solution other than dictatorship) than GOOD thinking. But I do appreciate your kind words.

[reprobate]

31. Eloriel, don't feel bad. Sometimes there really are no solutions.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Divide and conquer,

Natural processes, assimilation to polarization- there are other sides to this arguement.
Look at what happended to Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. This chapter might have a good ending.

[Green Lantern]

52. National Republican Radio

The other day a report on NPR indicated that he Kurds in the north had, for all practical purposes, created their own "state" keeping order with their own militia. I think it hit the fan now. Look for a future Kurdistan, and Sunni and Shia states. (and I doubt that they will all be democratic in nature).

The Bushwa legacy of bumbling-chaos, disintegration, terror and war.

No more Bushwa

[tedzbear]

21. Wrong.

It did well under a dictator (Hussein) who was being supported militarily by the United States. On his own, Hussein would have been a sitting duck to his many adversaries. But with the financial and material aid of the United States State Department, he had the resources to protect himself.

[Eloriel]

28. Okay.

I don't actually know that what you're saying changes or refutes my point -- esp. since our support dwindled and died at some point (Gulf War I), but if you do, fine.

Also seems to me all that oil money would've bought quite a few "resources" on his own.

[The Magistrate]

22. There Is Something To What You Say, Ms. Eloriel

There certainly are a number of political entities that seem to be feasible only under strong-man rule. Iraq has certainly been one of them.

It does seem questionable to me, however, whether such political entities would not be better off in their natural state of fragmentation. Most of these entities are not really natural naturally occuring nations, but colonial jurisdictions, such as Indonesia, or petty empires of their own, such as Yugoslavia, which for most of its existence was a de facto Serb imperium. It the unnatural agglommeration of peoples in such polities that necessitates the strong-man.

Iraq was not only a colonial jurisdiction, but one set up to be a petty empire within itself, in which the smallest minority, the Sunni Arabs, were given rule over the larger segments of Shi'ite Arabs and non-Arab Kurds. The modern wealth of oil resources is present only on the lands of these latter peoples; the Sunni Arabs have none of it, and their prosperity has depended on control of the state for exploitation of the others throughout Iraq's modern history. Were Iraq, on its present lines, to become a genuine democracy, the Sunni Arabs would become the disfavored and destitute class of it within a generation, and were Iraq to be partitioned along the natural cleavages present, the Sunni Arab statelet would become a destitute slum.

The leading arguments against partitioning Iraq are that a Kurdish state would stimulate Kurdish irridentism in several other countries, leading to great destabilization in the region, and that a Shi'ite Arab state would quickly become a pawn of Shi'ite Iran. These arguments do not seem too forceful to me, though the destabilization possible from a Kurdish state would be serious. The Kurds ought to have a state, and seem to greatly desire one. The traditional animosity between Arab and Persian is probably great enough to trump the coreligionist attraction of common Shi'ite faith. It does not seem to me the gain is clearly sufficient to justify the brutality required to maintain the jurisdiction as a single polity.

[foo_bar]

37. what would Ibrahim Lincoln do?

[Jacobin]

27. Geo-political pragmatism went out with the neo-cons

And we will be paying the price for the Feith/Wolfowitz/Perle/Rumsfeld dreamers for decades to come.

Thank you for a very thoughtful (if not politically correct), and mature and practical and REALISTIC post.

[reprobate]

32. And some of us, including you, predicted just this as I recall.

[foo_bar]

34. "if this were a dictatorship, it would be a heck of a lot easier..."

"...just so long as I'm the dictator."
- W

I guess it depends on your interpretation of 'sovereign'.

[llmart]

46. Agree 100%.

Thanks for saying it.

[allemand]

53. I disagree

If there was one fundamental error in U.S. foreign policy, it was the support for so many dictatorships in the name of "stability".
There were some short term gains, for sure, but in the long term it was detrimental to U.S. interests. Just look at Iran, for example.

"It did just fine": are you referring to the gassing of the Kurds or to the 500.000 to 1.000.000 casualties of the Iran-Iraq war?

[Gman]

4. Yeah well, don't turn blue

holding your breathh for the mainstream media to report this for what it is: the fruition of the complete and utter failure of US policy in Iraq.

[gasperc]

9. the south was the "peaceful" region

boy, that sunni triangle just keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger

[Bo]

10. Deputy Gov. found floating in Basra port

Stop oil shipments....yea thats going to happen.

[Dhalgren]

24. It's already happened.

The port has been closed for two days - so far.

[geek tragedy]

11. The tri-partite division scenario is the only one that will work

Kurds in the North, Shia in the South, and Sunnis in the middle. Somewhere along a continuum with a loose federation at one end and three new states at the other.

[David Zephyr]

35. Yep. I've Posted Here Ad Infinitum on This

And I've been accused of being a PNAC'er and a right-wing Zionist for doing so. So, prepare for the same, Geek Tragedy.

Of course, neither is true.

What is true is that Iraq is an artifice of the British and that Civil War is going to happen unless something is done pro-actively for HUMANITARIAN reasons.

I still firmly stand by what I wrote here earlier on this subject:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1635616

[geek tragedy]

40. So long as the US keeps Halliburton's greedy mitts off the independent

states, there shouldn't be a problem.

Eventually, I think some sort of federation with protection for minorities (Sunni Arabs in Kirkuk, Kurds in Baghdad, etc) will be necessary.

Only a thug like Saddam or Allawi can keep the place together as one state.

I certainly don't think ancient vestiges of colonialism aren't sacrosanct.

[David Zephyr]

41. No Halliburton.

I don't think that a Shia or Sunni government would deal with Halliburton, although with a Kurdistan it might be possible..

And, I agree that "only a thug like Saddam or Allawi can keep the place together as one state."

[geek tragedy]

42. Let's hope Kerry keeps an open mind

about how to deal with the situation.

Who produces and exports the oil there is not a matter of national security--oil on the world markets is fungible.

[David Zephyr]

44. Very Fungible.

I pity John Kerry on the day he takes office as he is going to have such a mess on his hand.

I think he will keep an open mind---one of the best things about him.

[JLuckey]

39. I agree except..........

Turks in the North.

[Armand04]

13. Spanish Proverb

There's a Spanish proverb that can be applied to Iraq's nightmare: "Ignorance is the mother of temerity"(literally in Spanish: "La ignorancia es la madre del atrevimiento". I do think that this expression utterly describes the way B* administration behaves in the foreign affairs arena.

Having said this, let me introduce myself. I'm a spanish progressive, affiliated to the Spanish Workers Socialist Party (PSOE), who've been lurking over here for about three years. Now, taking into account the dimension of the challenge that lies ahead in November elections, I wanted to become a Du'er as a show of support for the marvelous work you're doing here and the hours of entertainment you've given to me.

Overthrowing B* is a must. A mission which every sane individual over the face of this rattled earth should devote to unless some minutes a day. Let's expel the monkey the same way we sent Aznar to the deep hole he belongs to last March, with tears still flooding our eyes.


Surely, I won't be able to post on a regular basis due to "real life" duties and my commitment in other forums, but as soon as I can open new threads here count on a couple of weekly doses of spanish current events. Be strong, my friends, we're gonna win because, this time, defeat is not an option.

Oops!, I almost forgot it, please excuse my english.

[amandabeech]

14. Welcome to DU, Armand04!

I, for one, will be looking forward to your posts. We can all benefit from different perspectives.

And your English is very good.


Amanda

[Armand04]

18. Thankx

Thankx a lot for your warm welcome. I'll try to do my best to be of help here.

[CaptainClark23]

15. Bienvenido, Armand04

"Let's expel the monkey the same way we sent Aznar to the deep hole he belongs to last March..."

Amen to that.

[The Magistrate]

25. Welcome To The Forum, Sir!

Your input, particular on Spanish political affairs, is eagerly looked forward to.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Jacobin]

30. Welcome to DU Armand!

:hi:

We are all glad to have you here and your english is better than that of our pResident, so do not despair!!!

Congratulations on throwing out your former leader who got Spain into the IraqNam quagmire. We hope to join Spain in sending B* back to Texas.

[aneerkoinos]

38. Wellcome!

Greetings from a fellow Euro!

[Tight_rope]

48. Welcome to DU Armand04!

You are sooo right "this time, defeat is not an option."

[Eloriel]

51. Your English is utterly superb

More coherent than a LOT of native speakers, esp. freeper types. LOL. So glad you've been lurking and have decided to jump right in.

Your presence here, and your encouragement, reminds me of something that happened in February of last year that was absolutely exhilerating to me -- the worldwide anti-war protest. The protest that happened even in places I'd never heard of before. The protest that united so many millions of us, The People, in a demand for Peace. I felt at the time, so strongly, that it was (or at least could be) the beginning of a worldwide movement to take back our power from corporate interests, to continue to demand Peace, fairness, justice and accountability from our so-called leaders. It was also a celebation, a worldwide party. I saw it as a "seed moment" for many good things to come. And I say:

bring it on!!

Welcome to DU. Visit often and bring all your rowdy friends. :-)

(In case you're not familiar with it, the phrase "rowdy friends" comes from an older Country song by the inimitable Hank Williams, Jr. "Rowdy" was a reference to his party-loving friends.)

[jpak]

16. Tripartite Iraq coming soon (Kurds, Sunnis, Southern Shia)

No oil exports from Basra?????

Our Popular War President will nip this in the bud!

[movonne]

19. Welcome.

[anarchy1999]

20. This is all part of the PNAC Plan, Greater Israel.

If you read through the documents at PNAC the plan is to have Iraq split into three separate republics. The North, (Kurds), the middle, (Sunnis) and then the South (Shia's). Everything is going according to plan. Look it up.

Permanent bases on the outskirts. They are being built and are built as of now by Halliburtion and KBR.

We the people, are all falling blindly into this disaster. It appears the evangelicals are going to win. The only thing they are not going to get is their much awaited "RAPTURE".

Please god, forgive us all.

[David Zephyr]

36. Hardly "Greater Israel"

You don't really believe that do you?

[aneerkoinos]

23. Not civil war

The country is not breaking up, only the puppet regime is breaking up.

If true, what this means that Basra and the rest of south is renouncing the the puppet regime (Mayor of Bagdad, indeed) and officially joining the resistance. And this is happening because of Najaf sacriledge. Oooh, nobody saw this coming, I mean NOBODY at least not from a mile away, really, who could have thought! :D

PS: Poor Tony... suit you, SIR!

[Robbien]

29. The stories of Basra oil shutdown due to saboteurs is just spin

Ali Hamud al-Musawi, head of the Misan governorate council said:

"We are discussing the decision and we will stop Misan's oil flow, until Baghdad's government restores its logic (common sense) and realizes that millions of Iraqis care for the people of Najaf and Karbala," al-Musawi said.

"Iyad Allawi should not expect us to support him," he said. "We expected this government to give us justice, democracy and freedom," he added.

"We support the unity of Iraq, when there is an Iraqi government that acknowledges all people's rights," al-Musawi said.

"The government should not make irresponsible decisions and attack our religion" he added.

[underpants]

33. It's about HERITAGE!!!!!!!!

Now doesn't that sound stupid.

[wryter2000]

43. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[daleo]

45. Partition is a seductive solution

But it often causes at least as many problems as it cures. Think of the partition of India - the world now has two nuclear powers contending for Kashmir rather than a unitary state. Or think of Ireland or Yugoslavia - partition has hardly solved all problems in these areas. Indeed, consider the U.S. in the 19th century.

At times it may be a good solution - the case of Norway and Sweden for example worked out well. So far, the dissolution of the old U.S.S.R. has went better than many expected (of course, there is Chechnya).

I wouldn't bet on the partition of Iraq being a long term solution to anything, although it would be in the interest of some people (or they think so, anyway).

[amandabeech]

47. If Iraq were to fall apart, Iran might try to annex S. Iraq,

where the Shiites reside. That would put the Iranians on the border with Saudi Arabia's primary oil region. I believe that the residents there are primarily Shia, as well. The Saudi Royal Family would never want Iran so close, so it's no wonder that they want a Muslim force keeping the peace in Iraq.


If the break-up of Iraq caused the overthrow of the Saudi monarchy, the new rulers might not sell the U.S. any oil. I believe that the Saudis sold us approximately 1.5 mil. of our 20 million barrels a day back in 2002. Perhaps that number has risen.

[Tight_rope]

49. Welcome to DU mrsuomela!