New York crude breaks above 45 dollars a barrel

[Snazzy]

New York crude breaks above 45 dollars a barrel

19 minutes ago Add World - AFP to My Yahoo!



NEW YORK (AFP) - New York's main crude oil contract shot above 45 dollars for the first time, hit by an uprising in Iraq, a crisis at Russian oil giant Yukos and a tropical storm.

New York's benchmark contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, leapt 20 cents to 45.04 dollars a barrel mid-morning Tuesday.

...

"The situation in Iraq is definitely totally out of control," Gheit (Oppenheimer market analyst) said. "As long as the Iraqi situation remains volatile, oil prices will remain high."

"We could be looking at 50 (dollars a barrel) in two or three weeks," he added.

....

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1511&ncid=1511&e=2&u=/afp/20040810/wl_afp/oil_price_rise_040810164904

[swag]

1. Believers in "markets" as best conveyers of information, take note:

"The situation in Iraq is definitely totally out of control," Gheit (Oppenheimer market analyst) said.

Thanks for including that quote. In my view, it is key.

[beyurslf]

2. 2.50 a gallon here we come...

[Fovea]

3. And what happens when the Whabbist

revolution hits S.A. this fall?
$2.50/gal will be a fond memory.

[tridim]

4. This is un-spinnable bad news for whistle-ass

but I'm sure it won't stop them from trying.

[WLKjr]

5. I call $60^ by winter, you can mark it down(lol)

[uncle ray]

23. i hope that's a nervous "lol"

[hatrack]

6. Esp. interesting in light of a possible civil war in southern Iraq

Check the LBN post on the Lt. Governor of Basra province declaring separation from the central government.

[aneerkoinos]

20. Not civil war

The puppet regime falling totally apart.

[hatrack]

26. You're right - the civil war comes a little later

The falling apart has to happen first.

[aneerkoinos]

27. Let's hope not.

I'm not too worried, Sunnis are fighting against the occupiers, with great succes, and now Shias - even their elected leaders - start to realize they have no option but to join the resistance. So why would they fight against each other instead of negotiatiating and compromising, once they throw the enemy out together?

[RedCloud]

7. But Iraqi oil is $1 a barrel!

We are being set up to pay for the biggest oil price hike in history while the robber barons "finally" take control of the Iraqi oil fields and force us to pay for their windfall oil profits.

We pay for their war.
We die for their oil empire.
We pay for their oil extortion at the pump.
They get the tax "relief".
They use their windfall profits to blitz our tvs with attack ads against candidates who may put a stop to them.

[Barkley]

22. Are Iraqis still paying 5 cents a gallon for gas?

“ pay just five cents for a gallon - thanks to hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer subsidies. Since Iraq has little capacity to refine its own gasoline, the U.S. government pays about $1.50 a gallon to purchase fuel in neighboring countries and deliver it to Iraqi filling stations. A three-month supply costs American taxpayers more than $500 million, not including the cost of military escorts.”

- AP News

Iraqis The Only Ones Getting Cheap Gas
Associated Press
June 5, 2004
http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,FL_gas_060504,00.html

[RedCloud]

34. So I lied! It's 97 cents a barrel!

check it out from a news not beholden to oil barons:

«Iraq's importance to the global petroleum trade is obvious from the fact that it has the second largest proven reserves of oil in the world — at 112 billion barrels, it is next only to Saudi Arabia. Petroleum experts regard Iraqi crude as being easier to extract, costing just 97 cents a barrel, compared to the extraction costs of $ 6 a barrel for Russian crude or $ 4 for oil from the North Sea (international crude oil prices are currently about $30 a barrel). The quality of Iraqi crude, particularly its low sulphur content, also results in lower refining costs. Using it, therefore, translates into higher profit margins. U.S. oil majors, notably ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco, imported significant quantities of Iraqi crude on the eve of the invasion. In December 2002, even as the Pentagon promised to rain 300 cruise missiles a day on Iraq, the U.S. imported one million barrels of Iraqi oil. The imports were undertaken because U.S. petroleum stocks had dwindled to their lowest level in 27 years.»



http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/2003/08/17/stories/2003081700811400.htm

Hope it links better this time!

[Ripley]

8. So, are the oil companies taking a hit for Smirky?

Because in the last 2 weeks of rising barrel prices, Exxon's prices around here are dropping. Today it's $1.79 Regular and $1.93 Super.

[carpediem]

10. my understanding is that these prices won't hit the consumer for

a few weeks.

[lapfog_1]

14. Yes,

For as long as they can, the oil companies will eat the increase
in production costs and keep gasoline at the pump low. They know
that this is a long term profitable policy. Besides it takes
6 to 10 weeks for jumps in crude to get to retail (not that this
has EVER stopped them in the past from raising prices immediately!).
And they know they only have to do this until early November.

For you east coast and New England folks that use fuel oil... call
your supplier and lock in a contract NOW... it's going to cost
$400 more this year than last, but if you wait, that could go to
over a $1000. Hope for a warm winter.

[lil-petunia]

18. not here

2.00 regular. or more in Chicago proper.
that will go up shortly.

Unless, of course, shrubs friends try to keep the lid on prices until after Nov.2.
scary thought, that.

[aldian159]

33. Its been above 2 bucks in Chicago

for like 5 years now.

It cost me 2.35 a gallon for the cheap gas in Lincoln Park only six weeks ago.

[Kitsune]

21. The question is, how long can they suck it up? *nt*

[benburch]

9. Expect the Strategic Oil Reserve to be pumped.

Shrub will start pumping this out at $25 a barrel, and gas prices will plummett. He will announce this at or near the GOP convention.

[carpediem]

12. aren't the bushies on record saying they would NEVER

touch the Strategic Oil Reserve. My memory is that they condemned Gore for this in 2000. But I'm none to confident of my memory lately.

We ought to get ammunition ready though if they have come out against it, because I think you are right they will do it to save themselves.

- on edit -
I guess he didn't say never but this is from the GOP debate in 2000. He says except in a wartime emergency, so maybe this qualifies. But he would have to admit that Iraq isn't going well to use it:

No withdrawals from strategic oil reserve needed

Q: The Energy Secretary said he would not tap US strategic petroleum reserves in order to drive down prices saying those reserves are for emergencies. But given the shortages that exist, do you consider this an appropriate time to tap those reserves?

A: No, I don’t. I agree with the energy secretary that the strategic petroleum reserve is meant for a national wartime emergency. What I think the president ought to do is get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say we expect you to open your spigots. One reason why the price is so high is because the price of crude oil has been driven up. OPEC has gotten its supply act together and it’s driving the price, like it did in the past. And the president must jawbone OPEC members to lower the price. And if in fact there is collusion amongst big oil, he ought to intercede there as well.

Source: GOP Debate in Manchester NH Jan 26, 2000

[leesa]

36. Too funny! They're on record saying LOT'S of things...doesn't matter.

[fairfaxvadem]

11. Now wait just a minute, this is all the Dems' fault...

George W. Bush never makes mistakes, so when things are going to hell in a bucket, don't blame Mr. Perfect.

And of course our hard-hitting media will be sure to make serious inquiries concerning this outrageous statement: "The situation in Iraq is definitely totally out of control," because Mr. Perfect gave them "sovereignty", so they are a "sovereign entity"...

See???

[swag]

13. Pump price isn't the only thing affected by this awful number

In fact, I would say that pump price is a small worry compared with what else $45/$50 crude portends.

This number threatens corporate profits, US economic growth, indeed the health of the entire US and world economies. Crude oil is a major input for all sorts of manufacturing activities (China is the crude user that is accelerating the fastest at the moment), and rising crude prices like this could definitely become a big factor in derailing what many economists have been touting over the past year or two as a "synchronized global boom."

I have news: with oil prices like this, forward earnings on the S&P 500 are NOT going to be anywhere near that Thomson First Call consensus of $69.90.

John Kerry is absolutely dead on, and I hope he can be the man to lead us to finally do something about this: not just oil independence from the Middle East et al, but energy independence from oil and other polluting, inefficient, and diminishing fossil fuels.

Otherwise, we are in the deepest of deep shit.

[maxsolomon]

15. it will take a crisis to wake amurka up

it always has it always will. slavery anyone? it took a civil war to end that.

what is the crisis #? $3/gallon? $5? a wahhabist overthrow of the sauds & an ensuing embargo would do it, i think. sad that it will take the near destruction of our economy to make us change our ways. which, of course, was OBL's goal.

that his plan is still in motion points out the pitifully myopic in-the-box thinking of our 'leaders'.

[osaMABUSh]

16. What is lag time bt. oil price rise and gasoline prices?

Aren't these $45 prices in the future? When does gasoline take off? Seems to me gas is actually going down are holding now.

Let's see one to two months would put us in the heat of the election...

[KurtNYC]

17. Enron-ing the whole World

Most of the price spike is a "terror premium" - ie. factoring in volatility in supply, so that is pure profit when you don't have actual reduction of supply.

Our three biggest sources of foreign oil are in order #1 Canada (their GDP is rising on this price bump), #2 Saudi Arabia and #3 Venezuela. But somehow Iraq seems to factor into the number disproportionately.

Consider also that Russia is pumping at only 25 - 33% of their capacity. They could end this spike in a week if they turn their pumps on.

[lil-petunia]

19. Nope. Yukos will be nationalized in a month

then, Putin will have control over Europe and US.

just what pootie poot wanted.

[aneerkoinos]

28. Nope again

Iraq, Yukos etc, they are just the trees.

Peak Oil is the wood.

[Jacobin]

24. "The situation in Iraq is definitely totally out of control"

That statement nails it shut.

[Massacure]

25. Looks like it is at $44.52 now.

[benburch]

29. Wow....

A victory for *! :eyes:

[SKKY]

30. I wish Dean Kamen...

Would hurry up and finish the Sterling Engine. I for one will volunteer my 2002 Mazda Protege to be used as a test platform for it. We really, really need an alternative fuel source. This insane price for gas and the war on terror really highlights it for me. Anyone know what Saudi Arabia pays for gas? About 20 cents a gallon.

[ejcastellanos]

32. Still need a fuel source

Stirling engines are not particularly useful for automobiles so your Mazda isn't going to be powered by one anytime soon. A Stirling cycle engine in an automobile would still be a combustion engine, it would just be an external combustion engine. Generally more fuel efficient but not well suited for use in automobiles due to the way they deliver power. I think the last time anyone really put any serious R&D money into Stirling cycle engines for automobiles was in the 70s and it wasn't worthwhile then. Granted a lot has changed and someone may be capable of making a Stirling cycle engine work for automobiles. If I remember correctly, he wanted to use a Stirling cycle engine for on site power production in remote areas. Not much help for your Mazda.

No, we need a way to produce cheap ethanol or methanol. It would be cheaper to retrofit the millions of existing cars than to rush out and buy a Prius for everyone. How much energy does creating one of those consume? Recent research seems to indicate that we can produce ethanol for a net energy gain. Unfortunately I am unaware of how much of that energy gain is from pertroleum derived fertilizers. We can make biodiesel if necessary to run farm equipment. Now biodiesel can almost certainly be produced for a net energy gain, unfortunately one of the best plants for producing it is illegal to grow in the USofA. We can thank big tobacco for that.

The only way out of this mess is to grow our way out. We have to find a way to change from a petroleum economy to a carbohydrate - I believe that is the term - economy. Unfortunately there will probably be a huge economic collapse before that happens. I spoke with someone yesterday who said he heard that oil may reach $100 a barrel. I don't know where he heard that. If oil reaches that price we're in for a mess that will make the Great Depression look like the Clinton years.

[Moderator]

31. Kick

Kick

[David Zephyr]

35. Kick! We've Turned the Corner!