STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 12 August

[ozymandius]

Thursday August 12, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 161
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 82
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 244 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 298 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 511
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 994
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 11, 2004

Dow... 9,938.32 -6.35 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq... 1,782.42 -26.28 (-1.45%)
S&P 500... 1,075.79 -3.25 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.28% -0.01 (-0.23%)
Gold future... 397.90 -4.30 (-1.07%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

TECHNOLOGY TUMBLES, INFLATION CONCERNS DEEPEN

Not even 24 hours have gone by and I wonder if Alan Greenspan is trying to figure out how to peel the five-egg omelet off his face. In his statement yesterday he said the economy appears poised to resume stronger growth, but the markets via stock prices are saying just the opposite. With regard to inflation he spoke out of both sides of his mouth. First he said, “Inflation has been somewhat elevated this year,” but later in the statement he said, “Underlying inflation is still expected to be relatively low.” It’s pretty vague to say somewhat elevated and relatively low…relative to what? Most of the Fed-speak analysts I have read suggest his firm stance on raising interest rates through the end of the year implies he is more concerned about inflation than the prospects for economic growth.

-cut-

By the closing bell the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost made it back to breakeven by only dropping six points to 9,938, the NASDAQ Composite came off the lows to close 26 points down at 1,782, and the SPX made it back to only losing three points to 1,075. Yesterday a “stick save,” today a “glove save,” and tomorrow we face off once again.

Interest Rates and Treasuries

The Mortgage Bankers Association announced its application index fell 0.7% with the purchase component dropping 2.7%, but refinancing activity actually increased 2.5% with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage falling from 6.0% to 5.8%. I will not be a bit surprised to see the 30-year rate fall to 5.5% or even lower. Mr. Greenspan is touting an increase in economic growth and it’s looking like it could happen if more consumers are able to extract home equity to pay off higher interest credit cards, buy another SUV, and head to the mall for more shopping. It will come just in time to kick-off the Holiday Shopping Season and everyone will smile again. If the stock market continues to get ugly, money will surely run from stocks to the relative safety of the bond market.

-cut-

The concern for the Treasury auctions has come from declining demand for the debt paper. Auction demand is measured with the bid-to-cover ratio, which is simply the measure of total bids relative to the amount of debt sold. According to a recent Bloomberg article, the 5-year auction in June had a bid-to-cover of 2.91 and in July it declined to 2.33. On Monday the 3-year note auction had the weakest demand in the last year with a bid-to-cover of 2.0. Additionally, there has been concern about less participation from foreign central banks as measured by the “indirect bidders” category. In June indirect bidders bought 56.6% of the debt and in July their purchases declined to 38.5%.

Why would investors want to buy Treasuries yielding 3-5% when the true inflation figure is much higher?

[ozymandius]

4. Bonds Prices Higher

NEW YORK - Lingering fears about oil prices drove bond prices higher Wednesday, a day after the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) Bank raised a benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point.

The price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 3/16 point Wednesday, or $1.88 per $1,000 in face value. Its yield, which moves in the opposite direction, fell to 4.27 percent from 4.29 percent late Tuesday.

-cut-

Bond prices fell Tuesday after the Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites) boosted the target for the federal funds rate to 1.50 percent. The move was expected even in the wake of last week's government report showing paltry job creation in July.

story

[KoKo]

25. AOL to Sell Cheap PC's to Minorities and Seniors.......

AOL to Sell Cheap PCs to Minorities and Seniors
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=569&u=/nm/20040812/tc_nm/media_aol_dc&printer=1
Thu Aug 12,12:06 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - America Online on Thursday said it plans to sell a low-priced PC targeting low-income and minority households who agree to sign up for a year of dialup Internet service.

The online unit of Time Warner Inc (NYSE:TWX - news) will begin selling the computer and service at Office Depot this month.

The launch is part of a broad strategy at the recovering online service, which watched 2.2 million members abandon its service.

Over the past two years, the company has attempted to find new sources of revenue by appealing to different categories of customers including the Spanish-speaking and teen markets.

Executives said it hoped to attract the 27 percent of U.S. households comprised of seniors, African Americans and Hispanics who do not yet own a PC.

The computers will come configured with a simple desktop with large icons that send users to specific areas of the AOL service or applications loaded on the computer. They can also be preconfigured for Spanish language speakers.

The company said its AOL Latino service launched last October has already become the leading service provider servicing the U.S. Spanish-speaking community, with over 2 million members.

AOL plans to launch a service targeting the African American community, called Blackvoices, in September.

[ozymandius]

2. Market jitters return

Futures turn lower as investors keep an eye on oil, await retail sales and jobless claims.

Early Thursday, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, after being higher for much of the overnight period.

U.S. crude futures were higher as U.S. and Iraqi forces began an offensive against insurgents in Najaf. Futures rose 10 cents to $44.90 a barrel in electronic trading, holding below the $45.04 record set Tuesday. Brent oil futures were 30 cents higher at $41.87 a barrel in London after touching a record $42 earlier in the session.

-cut-

Those filing for initial jobless benefits is forecast to edge up to 340,000 in the week ended Aug. 7 compared with 336,000 who filed the previous week. It's the first reading on employment since July's disappointing employment report shocked markets Aug. 6.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/12/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

We are being prepped for a ragged day.

[ozymandius]

3. HP misses target, warns

Computer maker reports disappointing results early, warns 4Q will miss target as well.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Computer and computer printer maker Hewlett-Packard Co. reported much weaker-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results Thursday and warned that it'll miss fiscal fourth-quarter forecasts as well.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/12/technology/hp/index.htm

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.56 Change -0.29 (-0.33%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH83663_2004-08-12_10-56-23_L12105417

GLOBAL MARKETS-Oil hits new record, investors await U.S. data

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Oil hit yet another record high in London on Thursday, undermining a tentative European share rally amid worries about the sustainability of the world economy.

The dollar slipped against the euro but bonds held steady as investors waited for U.S. retail sales data which would be studied for interest-rate implications.

"U.S. retail sales data will either confirm or contradict (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan's comments that the recent weakness in data is a short-term phenomenon," said Mark McFarland, currency strategist at UBS.

Investors have been recovering from last week's shock U.S. jobs data which threw into question the sustainability of the world-leading U.S. economy.

But they remain highly concerned about oil, viewing a long-stretch of high prices as damaging to economic growth and corporate well-being.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5943942

U.S. Fed's optimism on economy high-stakes oil bet

WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's optimism about economic rebound in the face of soaring energy costs and slowing growth apparently reflects a genuine belief the summer pause will prove temporary.

But many economists and former Fed officials saw the U.S. central bank's decision on Tuesday to stick to a course of gradual rate rises as a high- stakes gamble that energy prices can be brought under control.

If not, the specter of "stagflation" -- the destructive coupling of rising prices and crawling growth that resists corrective policies -- could appear and, in the view of some, may already be lurking.

"It really comes down to oil," former Federal Reserve Board Governor Laurence Meyer said on Wednesday. "Everything is predicated on oil prices kind of receding, not being much above $40 a barrel. If it goes to $50, it's a whole new game. If it stays at $45, it's a bit of a pain."

The Fed, in raising the federal funds rate a quarter percentage point to 1.5 percent, blamed weak job creation and faltering growth in part on energy costs.

<snip>

Some analysts were puzzled about where policy-makers felt reinvigorated growth will originate, but they said it was reasonable for the Fed to stick with its forecast unless it sees evidence the expansion is stalling.

"There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy now," said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, who now consults for Schwab Research Group.

"I think that you can persuade yourself that the fundamentals remain sound," he added, citing strong capital spending, buoyant consumer confidence and low business inventories.

Gramley said oil prices were "the fly in the ointment" and that while it was hard to pinpoint at what level they would turn into a serious threat, $50 a barrel would certainly pose a "problem."

"It creates a great dilemma because it slows growth and it also aggravates inflation and there is no good policy answer as to what to do," he said.

Economist Allen Sinai of Decision Economics Inc. in Boston said the Fed's decision to put a brave face on economic prospects represented a big wager by policymakers that the impact of rising energy prices will soon fade.

...more...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/world/20040812-9999-1n12oil.html

Price of crude, still headed up, may take toll on world economy

As worldwide oil prices hover near their all-time highs this week, economists are increasingly concerned they could disrupt the shaky global economy.

During the past several days, oil prices have closed within pennies of the $45 mark – once seen as a sky-high ceiling. Yesterday, the price of low-sulfur crude oil hit $44.80, rising 28 cents despite an announcement that Saudi Arabia intends to begin selling more oil.

Since the year began, the price of crude oil has jumped 37 percent, rising $8 since June alone.

The worst might be yet to come, due to oil supply problems in Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria, terror threats in Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and burgeoning demand in China and India.

"There's a 50-50 chance that we'll be seeing $50 a barrel for oil within the next 50 days," said Jim Burkhard, who analyzes oil markets for Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Boston. "If I told you that at the beginning of the year, you would have thought I was crazy. But that's how fast this market is changing."

...more...

http://edition.cnn.com/2004/BUSINESS/08/12/oil.price/

Oil prices return to record levels

LONDON, England -- Oil prices are trading near record levels as a growing rebellion in Iraq's southern oil region outweighs assurances by Saudi Arabia that it could increase production to ease any supply crunch.

U.S. light crude rose 12 cents to $44.92 a barrel Thursday, down slightly from a record high for New York crude futures of $45.04 reached Tuesday.

In London, Brent crude futures hit a new peak of $41.82, up from the previous all- time high of $41.70.

"Everything's gone wrong in the oil market recently. If you wanted to paint the worst scenario picture, you couldn't do much better," David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, told Reuters.

Prices eased briefly Wednesday after Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Nuaimi, said his country could raise production immediately by 1.3 million barrels. (Full story)

But prices began rising again as investors questioned whether the kingdom could deliver on that promise.

...more...

Well, okay! It's all about OIL! But we knew that :eyes:

It's MaeveDay! Lets see what the reports say at 8:30 EST.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar remains flat to lower after U.S. economic data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38211.3672222222-817390314&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar remained steady to weaker against its major rivals, with currency trading exhibiting little immediate reaction to a string of U.S. economic reports issued Thursday morning. The dollar was down 0.5 percent against Europe's shared currency, with the euro valued at $1.2270 following in-line economic growth figures from Germany and France. The greenback fell 0.1 percent against its British rival, with one pound fetching $1.8324. The greenback was flat at 110.82 Japanese yen. U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in July, rebounding from a disappointing decline in June. Meanwhile, first- time claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest week to their lowest level in a month.

Last trade 88.46 Change -0.39 (-0.44%)

Last tick: 2004-08-12 08:33:35 ET
30-min delayed quote

I wonder if they are watching a different chart?

[ozymandius]

6. I never thought I would see this headline.

CORRECTED: Stocks Seen Sliding at Open

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are expected to fall at the open on Thursday, hit by technology shares after Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HPQ - news) warned its profit for the current quarter would fall short of Wall Street expectations.

Hewlett-Packard's news is another blow to tech investors who were already reeling from Tuesday's announcement from Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:CSCO - news) that inventories at the world's largest Internet equipment maker were rising and that customers were more cautious in their spending.

Oil prices near records are also expected to dampen investor enthusiasm for stocks.

story

[UpInArms]

7. NYT Editorial: Painting the Economy Into a Corner

(By jove, I think they got it!)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/12/opinion/12thu1.html

resident Bush reacted decisively to this month's shockingly bad employment report - by quickly changing the topic to terror. The Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, also focused elsewhere, namely on rising oil prices. Mr. Greenspan used inflationary energy costs as the rationale for raising interest rates a quarter point, despite the drastic slump in hiring and a recent slowdown in productivity growth.

What neither man seems ready to acknowledge outright is that policy makers have run out of tools for stewarding an economy that - nearly three years into a recovery - has yet to flourish and may even be downshifting to neutral. The president's fiscal policies, mainly high- end tax cuts, have resulted in a record federal budget deficit without spurring hiring or income growth. If Mr. Bush continues on the tax-cut path, continuing high deficits will further threaten job creation and living standards.

<snip>

Mr. Bush and Mr. Greenspan have now exhausted almost all of their stimulus options. The economy is on its own, and it is not clear whether it is on track for a stronger recovery in the second half of the year.

No wonder, then, that Mr. Bush won't acknowledge the bad news on jobs. Doing so would imply a need to re-examine the policies that have led to this point, something he is not willing to do. Given the facts, his intransigence is appalling: according to a new research report by Economy.com, an independent provider of economic data and analysis, the $700 billion swing from surplus to deficit under President Bush accounted for nearly two percentage points of economic growth a year. But it has generated economic gains of just over one percentage point.

The main reason for the crippling discrepancy is that the tax cuts were mostly handed out where they did the least good - that is, lavished on the people least likely to spend the largess. The reduction in the tax rates, the largest of Mr. Bush's tax boons, provided only 59 cents of economic stimulus for every dollar of lost tax revenue. The tax cut for dividends and capital gains produced 9 cents of stimulus for every forgone dollar. (Did someone say, "Deficits as far as the eye can see"?) In contrast, the economic bang for a dollar of aid to state governments is $1.24. Yet such assistance accounted for only 3 percent of the total cost of Mr. Bush's fiscal policies.

...more...

It's about damn time, too. :mad:

[Maeve]

8. Initial Claims down

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38211.354537037-817388885&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. jobless claims fall to lowest level in month By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest week to their lowest level in a month, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending August 7 fell 4,000 to 333,000. It's the lowest level since the week ended July 3.

Sorry, but "lowest in a month" is really stretching to make it sound good...

[UpInArms]

10. last week revised up 1,000

but that is just SOP :D

[UpInArms]

9. here's the first round of reports

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 08/07
reported 333K
briefing.com anticipated 340K
market anticipated 340K
last week 337K
revised from 336K

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Jul
reported 0.7%
briefing.com anticipated 1.2%
market anticipated 1.1%
last report -0.5%
revised from -1.1%

Aug 12 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Jul
reported 0.2%
briefing.com anticipated 0.5%
market anticipated 0.4%
last report -
revised from -0.2%

[UpInArms]

12. And now for some cheerleading!

U.S. July retail sales rebound from June swoon

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={8F46D50E-402D-4047-8EF7-3BFCAF772258}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

U.S. July retail sales rebound from June swoon By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in July, rebounding from a disappointing decline in June, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Sales were powered by a 2.4 percent gain in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales rose a modest 0.2 percent. Economists were expecting slightly better gains in July, but upward revisions to June sales brought the sales level back into line with expectations. For the most part, durable goods had strong sales. Furniture store sales climbed a healthy 1.1 percent, while sales at building material and hardware stores dropped 1.1 percent. Sales of nondurable goods were also mostly healthy. General merchandise store sales rose 1 percent.

[UpInArms]

14. La-Z-Boy To Close Caldwell Co. Plant, Layoff Over 600

http://www.nbc17.com/news/3646793/detail.html

La-Z-Boy Inc. will lay off 645 workers by closing permanently three manufacturing plants and idling a North Carolina facility while the furniture giant accelerates its plans toward more production overseas.

The Michigan-based company announced this week it would shut down its Kincaid plant in the Caldwell County town of Hudson next month, laying off 120 workers temporarily while La-Z-Boy's domestic solid-wood furniture production levels are determined.

The company also said it would close Pennsylvania House plants in Lewisburg, Pa. and White Deer, Pa., and warehouses in and around Lewisburg, leading to a loss of 425 jobs. It also will close an England upholstery plant in Booneville, Miss., eliminating 100 jobs.

<snip>

The company reported a loss of $3.5 million, or 7 cents a share, in the quarter ending July 26, compared to net income of $5.8 million, or 11 cents a share, in the same period a year ago.

...more...

but didn't they say Furniture store sales climbed a healthy 1.1 percent?

Then how come the closings and the layoffs?

Someone must have their wires a bit crossed.

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

8:23AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Negative bias persists ahead of slew of data at 08:30 ET that includes Retail Sales, initial claims, export prices (ex-agriculture) and import prices (ex-oil)

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. The cash market clawed its way back from larger losses in late trading yesterday, but this morning, the futures indications suggest it is poised to start the day on a negative note... Bearish bias is rooted in HPQ's earnings warning for fiscal Q4, and a jump in oil prices

7:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.5. The cash market clawed its way back from larger losses in late trading yesterday, but this morning, the futures indications suggest it is poised to start the day on a negative note... Bearish bias is rooted in HPQ's earnings warning for fiscal Q4, and a jump in oil prices

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight and is working on an inside day as it extends this week's breakout below July's low crossing at 1360. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at 1267.54 is possible later this year. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1353.60 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 3.50 pt. at 1323.00 as of 6:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates below broken support marked by May's low crossing at 1097.50. The door is open for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1083.14 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was down 3.30 pts. at 1072.50 as of 6:57 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[Maeve]

15. And we're off!

Dow 9,887.88 -50.44 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 1,769.51 -12.91 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,071.83 -3.96 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292% +0.015

Bathroom looks great, btw, and NO LEAKS! Gotta do some running today, but will get back and watch some of the bloodbath... :hi:

[UpInArms]

17. Great to see you Maeve!

Enjoy your new bathroom :D

:hi:

[UpInArms]

16. 9:34 Markets are open

Dow 9,897.04 -41.28 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,769.98 -12.44 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,071.76 -4.03 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.293% +0.016

and a bit more pre-opening blather

9:18AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0. Futures are off their lows of the morning, but still pointing to a modestly lower start for the cash market when trading begins

8:38AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Futures market little changed since release of the data that were highlighted by weaker than expected retail sales for July, but better than expected initial claims and an upward revision to the retail sales number for June (to -0.5% from -1.1%)... HPQ earnings disappointment remains the key drag on pre-market action

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. June inventories up 0.9%, most in 4 years

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38211.416875-817396473&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Inventories of unsold goods rose 0.9 percent at U.S. businesses in June, the biggest increase in four years, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Business sales increased 0.1 percent, the weakest since April. The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.31 from a record low 1.30, the first increase in more than a year. Economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch were expecting inventories to rise 0.6 percent. Retail sales fell 0.5 percent in June while inventories rose 1.1 percent. Auto inventories increased 2.1 percent in June as sales tumbled 3 percent. Excluding autos, retail inventories in June increased 0.6 percent.

That might leave a bruise.

[UpInArms]

20. looks like they adjusted last month's numbers also

Aug 12 10:00 AM
Business Inventories Jun
reported 0.9%
briefing.com anticipated 0.8%
market anticipated 0.6%
last report 0.7%
revised from 0.4%

[UpInArms]

19. 10:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,881.03 -57.29 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,768.12 -14.30 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,071.21 -4.58 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.292% +0.015

10:00AM: Indices fairly steady but no real bounce...not surprisingly, the Nasdaq is underperforming...July retail sales were reported at +0.7%, which was less than an expected 1.1% gain...however, the overall level of sales was as expected, it was just the June was revised upward by 0.5% (to a decline of 0.6% from an originally reported 1.1% drop) that reduced the reported gain for July...the total level of sales for the two months was actually higher than had been projected...so, the retail data have provided some comfort to economists that the trend in consumer spending is not as soft as feared...

9:45AM: A down open in line with futures indications...Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 16.50 -3.02) earnings report and warning is the major drag on the market...Wal-Mart (WMT 53.16 +1.53) is up on its earnings report...tech sector concerns continue to weigh heavily on the overall market even while earnings reports overall are good...

[UpInArms]

21. 10:24 EST and sinking

Dow 9,851.16 -87.16 (-0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,760.87 -21.55 (-1.21%)
S&P 500 1,067.44 -8.35 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 4.297% +0.020

(updating to add blather)

10:25 ET
Dow -79, Nasdaq -21, S&P -8.01


Oil prices are up about 35 cents this morning, continuing to pressure stocks, as the indices sag further...Hewlett and Cisco news this week have tech stocks decidedly on the defensive and have set a negative tone amongst many professionals...meanwhile, oil price pressures add to those concerns for the broader market... ..NYSE Adv/Dec /. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec /.

[UpInArms]

22. dollar loves rising inventories!

Last trade 88.87 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

Last tick: 2004-08-12 10:06:17 ET
30-min delayed quote

market numbers at 9:39 EST

Dow 9,854.63 -83.69 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 1,762.34 -20.08 (-1.13%)
S&P 500 1,067.55 -8.24 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 4.291% +0.014

[KoKo]

23. This from Ted Turner caught my eye, "Loss of Quality.".........

This snip from Turner's article: "My Beef with Big Media" jumped out at me and I thought I'd post the snip here. It's not only "big media" but companies that went on a "mergers & acquistion" binge in the late 80's up until now. What he says could apply to almost any big conglomerate today. I wish more folks would start pointing this out.
------------------------------------------------------------------------


http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0407.turner.html

Loss of Quality

The Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans exerts a negative influence on society, because it discourages people who want to climb up the list from giving more money to charity. The Nielsen ratings are dangerous in a similar way--because they scare companies away from good shows that don't produce immediate blockbuster ratings. The producer Norman Lear once asked, "You know what ruined television?" His answer: when The New York Times began publishing the Nielsen ratings. "That list every week became all anyone cared about."

When all companies are quarterly earnings-obsessed, the market starts punishing companies that aren't yielding an instant return. This not only creates a big incentive for bogus accounting, but also it inhibits the kind of investment that builds economic value. America used to know this. We used to be a nation of farmers. You can't plant something today and harvest tomorrow. Had Turner Communications been required to show earnings growth every quarter, we never would have purchased those first two TV stations.

When CNN reported to me, if we needed more money for Kosovo or Baghdad, we'd find it. If we had to bust the budget, we busted the budget. We put journalism first, and that's how we built CNN into something the world wanted to watch. I had the power to make these budget decisions because they were my companies. I was an independent entrepreneur who controlled the majority of the votes and could run my company for the long term. Top managers in these huge media conglomerates run their companies for the short term. After we sold Turner Broadcasting to Time Warner, we came under such earnings pressure that we had to cut our promotion budget every year at CNN to make our numbers. Media mega-mergers inevitably lead to an overemphasis on short-term earnings.

You can see this overemphasis in the spread of reality television. Shows like "Fear Factor" cost little to produce--there are no actors to pay and no sets to maintain--and they get big ratings. Thus, American television has moved away from expensive sitcoms and on to cheap thrills. We've gone from "Father Knows Best" to "Who Wants to Marry My Dad?", and from "My Three Sons" to "My Big Fat Obnoxious Fiance."

The story of Grant Tinker and Mary Tyler Moore's production studio, MTM, helps illustrate the point. When the company was founded in 1969, Tinker and Moore hired the best writers they could find and then left them alone--and were rewarded with some of the best shows of the 1970s. But eventually, MTM was bought by a company that imposed budget ceilings and laid off employees. That company was later purchased by Rev. Pat Robertson; then, he was bought out by Fox. Exit "The Mary Tyler Moore Show." Enter "The Littlest Groom."

[KoKo]

24. Target & Walmart both beat WS estimates by a penny a share.....

Meanwhile Target sells off it's Department Store Interests. Creative accounting or reality :eyes:

Wal-Mart, Target Profits Up; Oil Worries
Thursday August 12, 10:56 am ET
By Emily Kaiser CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE:WMT - News) and Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT - News) on Thursday reported slightly better-than-expected earnings as demand for high-profit items like back-to-school clothing made up for sluggish summer sales.


The top two discount retailers said they were confident that profits would continue to grow this year, but the soaring gasoline prices that curbed consumer spending this summer remained a concern.

Both stocks were up about 2 percent in early New York Stock Exchange trading, outperforming a weaker stock market.

At Minneapolis-based Target, earnings were $1.4 billion, or $1.54 per share, in the second quarter ended July 31, boosted by a $1.02 billion gain on the sale of its Marshall Field's department store chain.

That compares with earnings of $358 million, or 39 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier.

(snip)

Excluding the $1.11-per-share gain from the Marshall Field's sale and a charge of 5 cents per share for debt buybacks, earnings were 48 cents per share, slightly ahead of the average estimate of 47 cents among analysts polled by Reuters Estimates.

Target's sale of its Marshall Field's chain to May Department Stores Co. (NYSE:MAY - News) closed on July 31, and it has agreed to sell its Mervyn's stores to private equity firms. Analysts had long complained that the department stores were a drag on Target's profits and masked the strong performance at the company's discount stores.

Second-quarter revenue rose 10 percent to $10.56 billion.

Shares of Wal-Mart were up $1.23, or 2.4 percent, at $52.86, while Target's stock added 70 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $41.12, both on the NYSE.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040812/retail_earns_1.html

[KoKo]

26. "54" must be having fun at that State Fair.....

(?)

[54anickel]

34. Just got back in! ISP woes again this AM. Then had to do the usual

"Dad duty" for treatments - hopefully only 2 more weeks. We will see. They are starting to take a toll on him now, so let's hope these will be the last 8 coming up for sure this time.

[KoKo]

42. Good Luck to your Dad, "54."

We missed you!

[KoKo]

27. Noonday Numbers...and not much new blather...Red Sails Flying..

Dow 9,866.65 -71.67 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 1,762.74 -19.68 (-1.10%)
S&P 500 1,068.56 -7.23 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 4.297% +0.020
NYSE Volume 571,745,000
Nasdaq Volume 671,866,000

[UpInArms]

29. a side of noonday blather

12:00PM: Once again, the technology sector is the bane of the market's existence as a surprise earnings announcement from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 16.15, -3.37) has thrown added fuel on the fire stoked yesterday by Cisco's (CSCO 17.64, -0.65) lackluster revenue guidance for fiscal Q1 (Oct)...

Specifically, HP surprised the market in three ways: first, it released its fiscal Q3 (Jul) results early (the company was scheduled to report on Aug. 18); secondly, HP's fiscal Q3 profit of $0.24 was $0.07 shy of the Reuters Estimates consensus; and third, HP issued EPS guidance of $0.35-0.39 for fiscal Q4 (Oct) that is below the current Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.43... Blame for the disappointing report was placed on poor execution in the company's Enterprise Servers and Storage business... The latter suggests this may be more of a company-specific issue, but given its proximity to Cisco's disappointing report, that consideration has been trumped by the idea that it is symptomatic of a bigger end demand issue in the technology sector... Accordingly, there is broad-based weakness across the tech sector that is weighing heavily on the broader market...

A separate concern today is the continued rise in oil prices ($0.48 at $45.28/bbl) as supply concerns persist amid the same litany of concerns (read: Yukos, Iraq, Venezuela, hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, etc.)... Target (TGT 42.69, +2.27) and Wal-Mart (WMT 53.02, +1.39), both of which checked in with encouraging earnings results, are standout performers in the S&P... Nonetheless, with growth concerns predominating for now as oil prices continue to rise, and underlying investor sentiment heavily influenced by the lousy performance of the tech stocks, the broader market continues to languish...

[UpInArms]

28. Current Oil ppb is $45.30

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CLU4

Last trade 45.30 Change +0.50 (+1.12%)

Last tick: 2004-08-12 11:38:30 ET
30-min delayed quote

[UpInArms]

30. New record for oil

Crude touches $45.45 a barrel on concerns that Najaf battle may spark sabotage.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/12/markets/oil/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Oil prices touched record levels Thursday as an escalating battle in Iraq, approaching storms in a U.S. production region and continued uncertainty about Russian exporter Yukos led to more speculative buying.

At around 10:40 a.m. ET, U.S. light crude for September delivery rose 65 cents to $45.45 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price stands well above the record high for New York crude futures of $45.04 struck Tuesday.

<snip>

Iraq's oil exports were running at half normal levels for the fourth day in a row Thursday as officials decided to limit some capacity following sabotage threats as U.S.-led forces move to quiet an uprising in the holy city of Najaf.

<snip>

A pipeline sabotage attack late Monday has already cut loadings from Iraq's two offshore Gulf terminals -- which account for all the country's exports -- to 960,000 barrels per day compared with 1.9 million normally.

Fears that tightly stretched supplies have left little leeway for any disruptions have added 19 percent, or $7, to a barrel of crude oil since the end of June.

A hefty and unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories Wednesday has added to concerns that supply may not be able to keep pace with demand, which is growing at the fastest rate in 24 years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. 'India to increase share in international textile market'

http://www.hinduonnet.com/thehindu/holnus/001200408122123.htm

Washington, Aug. 12 (PTI): India is set to increase significantly its share in the international textile market next year after import restrictions are eliminated in the US and other rich nations, according to a WTO study.

It said many developing countries will suffer significant losses amid new stiff competition from China, which could rule the market after textile import quotas are abolished, and India.

<snip>

In the US clothing market, China's share could surge up to 50 per cent from 16 per cent in 2002, and India's share could surge to 15 per cent from 4 per cent.

The textile quota system, more than three decades old, is set to expire on January 1, 2005 under a WTO agreement struck in 1995.

...more...

[KoKo]

32. Caught a sale at local dept. store. Men's shirts with "Made in Pakistan"

label. I'm so used to Vietnam, China and some other places like Dubai, it took me by surprise. I often find shopping tells more about our international politics than anything else. Did Bush give huge incentives to Pakistan imports because of his pressue on them to deliver "terraists?" Who makes the cloth that the Pakistani factory turns into shirts?

After the Gulf War I noticed clothing "Made in United Arab Emerites" appearing on the shelves, then the labels moved back to China, Vietnam, and some African nations, Mexico and Turkey in the years since.

[UpInArms]

33. July Retail Sales Rise Less Than Expected

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5957826

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rebounded in July but posted a smaller- than-expected gain while lines for jobless benefits shrank for a second straight week, government reports showed on Thursday.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.7 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted $336.50 billion, less than economists had expected but a rebound from the revised 0.5 percent decline in sales in June.

July purchases excluding autos were up only 0.2 percent, their smallest gain since an outright decline in April. Ex-auto sales in June were revised to a 0.3 percent gain from a 0.2 percent drop.

Wall Street analysts had expected a stronger gain of 1.1 percent in July and a 0.4 percent increase outside of auto sales.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Looking Behind Earnings Growth (Transitory inflation my arse!)

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

snip>

While the argument that S&P 500 earnings growth is decelerating from previous quarters, while future estimates are increasing is captivating investors, digging a little deeper into the numbers offers some clarity.

By looking at earnings growth projections by industry sector it is easier to see what is driving the upward revisions for the S&P 500 earnings growth for the rest of the year. The table below details the expected earnings growth for the S&P 500 along with each of the ten industry sectors as defined by Standard & Poor’s as of last Friday as well as last month.

The materials and energy sectors have experienced the largest increase in earnings estimates for the third and fourth quarters. Third quarter earnings forecasts are also being lifted by the financial sector and since the financial sector makes up over 20% of the S&P 500, the 300 basis point increase in earnings growth actually accounts for a good portion of the increase. Unfortunately, earnings growth in the energy and materials sectors does not bode well for most other companies or the economy. The surge in commodity prices has led to amazing earnings growth for energy and materials companies. Analysts have been playing catch-up all year for both sectors. At the beginning of the year, earnings for energy companies were expected to decline by 14% during the third quarter on a year-over-year basis. While not expected to have declining earnings, the materials sector was expected to increase earning by 40%. While that is very high, it now stands at 70%.

We have discussed higher commodity prices for quite a while. We now see evidence that these higher commodities are causing companies costs to increase. According to Nucor, steel prices have increased $218 per ton to $575 since the second quarter of 2003 and $120 since the first quarter this year. Transportation companies have added on surcharges that customers have to pay. These rising costs are starting to be felt by other companies, like consumer discretionary. The increased revenue at one company translates into higher costs at another.

more...

[KoKo]

38. Welcome back "54" hope your Fair Day was Fun....!

We missed you :hi:

[54anickel]

41. Thanks KoKo, always nice to be missed. The fair was great but COLD!

We've got October weather here this week.

[JNelson6563]

47. Welcome back 54--

I wondered where you were. You made it back in time to enjoy this interesting day with us.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

50. yes, truly Welcome back, 54anickel!

Koko has done a great job while you were gone - looking for those articles that you guys find and I always read -

thanks for all that ya'll do :D

:grouphug:

[54anickel]

36. Assets Surge in 401(k) Plans

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/3084015/c_3084056?f=home_todayinfinance

"Thank you, stock market." :freak:

That’s what most participants in 401 (k) plans seem to be saying after looking at their recent statements. The average ongoing 401(k) account balance increased by 29.1 percent last year, according to a recently published study by the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI).

That’s a sharp turnaround from the declines in recent years. Account balances increased across all age and tenure groups during the past year as a result of strong equity-market returns and continuing contributions, the study found. The report analyzes year-end 2003 data, which contains statistical information on about $776 billion in assets held by 15 million 401(k) plan participants in 45,152 plans. The EBRI/ICI project covers about 35 percent of all 401(k) participants in the nation.

Despite the gains, participants’ balances varied depending upon the workers’ age and number of years in the workforce. Of course, changes in account balances depend upon a number of factors, including contributions, investment returns, withdrawals, borrowing, and loan repayments.

[KoKo]

40. ROFL! They had to put that out, but it's based on 2003. Wonder what

this year is going to look like... And, I even question 2003 and how they got those great looking numbers...Stock Brokers 401-K's, maybe?? Selected monitoring?

[54anickel]

43. Well, the do offer a hint....

Of course, changes in account balances depend upon a number of factors, including contributions, investment returns, withdrawals, borrowing, and loan repayments.

Buy and keep right on buying "auto pilot"
Hmmm, those folks that lost their jobs would have HAD to pay back their loans, No? Of course all that cheap money Greenspin's been floating around probably ended up paying off a few of those as well. But the headline would certainly want you to believe it was nearly all great earnings. Then again that also is YtoY, so how much have you regained of the loses from 2000? :eyes:

[54anickel]

37. The Oil Market Refuses to Heed Positive News

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/12/business/12oil.html

ARIS, Aug. 11 - World energy markets are so concerned about strong demand and possible disruptions of supplies that oil prices finished higher on Wednesday, even though Saudi Arabia announced that it had the capacity to pump 1.3 million more barrels a day immediately if needed.

Low-sulfur crude oil for delivery next month settled at $44.80 a barrel in New York, up 28 cents, after a turbulent day of bobbing up and down with each news development. The record price at the end of the day, set on Monday, is $44.84 a barrel; prices within pennies of $45 have been seen during trading several times this week.

Underlying the rising cost of oil in recent months has been strong global demand. The International Energy Agency, based in Paris, said in a report on Wednesday that the world's thirst for oil would be even greater in the rest of 2004 and in 2005 than it previously forecast, increasing pressure on producers to step up output at a time when rising oil prices could slow world economic recovery.

Though fears of supply disruptions in Iraq, the legal uncertainty surrounding the Russian oil giant Yukos, and surging demand in China have helped push prices to one record high after another recently, the agency's report took note of increasing production in Saudi Arabia and Russia and tried to dispel concerns about a fundamental shortage of oil.

more...

[Zynx]

46. That Saudi promise is bunk. They don't have that much excess capacity.

[UpInArms]

49. Saudi Arabia's Offer To Hike Production Aimed At U.S., Analysts Say

http://www.turkishpress.com/turkishpress/news.asp?ID=24379

LONDON, Aug 12 (AFP) - Saudi Arabia's offer to increase the kingdom's crude output by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) immediately, if called upon to help cool record high oil prices, is above all a move aimed at pleasing its main customer the United States, analysts said Thursday.

"There are obviously political reasons why they are doing it," one London analyst said, without wishing to be named.

"Saudi Arabia does not want to get on the wrong side of the US and obviously with the (US presidential) elections coming, the last thing that the Saudi royal family would want is oil prices to move even higher," the analyst added.

US President George W. Bush, looking to win re-election in November, has been dogged by persistent allegations that he has close ties to the Saudi royal family.

It is alleged even that Bush cut a deal under which Riyadh would boost oil output to help to lower US gasoline prices in order to help him win re-election.

"Of course, all oil is politics in one sense," said Peter Kemp, an analyst for the British research company Energy Intelligence Group.

<snip>

But he noted: "The market is not confident that the Saudis could sustain such a production level for a extended period, as there is no recent evidence of them being able to do so.

...more...

seems you are not the only one thinking like that :D

[54anickel]

55. Heh-heh, their word is about as good as George's now, huh? It worked

once to get the prices down - markets not gonna fall for that one again.

"Fool me once, uh, err, uhm....."

[54anickel]

39. 1:31 update - ouch!!!

Dow 9,822.40 -115.92 (-1.17%)
Nasdaq 1,754.50 -27.92 (-1.57%)
S&P 500 1,064.33 -11.46 (-1.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.253% -0.024
30-yr Bond 5.053% -0.006
NYSE Volume 806,885,000
Nasdaq Volume 953,589,000

1:30PM: Market slid to its worst levels of the session in an expeditious manner in the past half hour... Recent downtick followed on the heels of a successful 10-yr note auction that has triggered concerns that the demand for that instrument may be a reflection of a growing expectation for further economic weakness... Such an interpretation is just one more factor, along with oil prices, recent earnings disappointments from CSCO and HPQ, and the market's poor technical condition, that is weighing on investor sentiment... NYSE Adv/Dec 995/2163, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 766/2153

12:55PM: Oil prices are now up 70 cents at $45.50 and remain a constraint on the stock market...traders are very much focused on any news affecting the oil markets...one of the major disasters of the day is Cyberonics (14.38 -9.57), a medical device company that received an unexpected denial from the FDA for a depression device...an advisory panel of the FDA had recommended approval...NYSE Adv/Dec 1024/2099, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 851/2061


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 960 (28%) 773 (25%)
Declines 2216 (66%) 2162 (70%)
Unchanged 141 (4%) 123 (4%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 120 (16%) 144 (15%)
Down Vol* 614 (82%) 757 (83%)
Unch. Vol* 14 (1%) 3 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 19 9
New Lo's 107 210

[KoKo]

44. Tumbles and more Red at the close to 2:p.m. check. Also some Greenspin

type of explanation for the market tumble.

1:30PM: Market slid to its worst levels of the session in an expeditious manner in the past half hour... Recent downtick followed on the heels of a successful 10-yr note auction that has triggered concerns that the demand for that instrument may be a reflection of a growing expectation for further economic weakness... Such an interpretation is just one more factor, along with oil prices, recent earnings disappointments from CSCO and HPQ, and the market's poor technical condition, that is weighing on investor sentiment... NYSE Adv/Dec 995/2163, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 766/2153


Dow 9,827.05 -111.27 (-1.12%)
Nasdaq 1,754.64 -27.78 (-1.56%)
S&P 500 1,064.62 -11.17 (-1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.248% -0.029
NYSE Volume 837,270,000
Nasdaq Volume 985,078,000

[TrogL]

45. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-07-12 Monday, July 12 0.758265 USD
2004-07-13 Tuesday, July 13 0.754205 USD
2004-07-14 Wednesday, July 14 0.756144 USD
2004-07-15 Thursday, July 15 0.755287 USD
2004-07-16 Friday, July 16 0.763825 USD
2004-07-19 Monday, July 19 0.764409 USD
2004-07-20 Tuesday, July 20 0.763417 USD
2004-07-21 Wednesday, July 21 0.755173 USD
2004-07-22 Thursday, July 22 0.761267 USD
2004-07-23 Friday, July 23 0.756487 USD
2004-07-26 Monday, July 26 0.750751 USD
2004-07-27 Tuesday, July 27 0.748895 USD
2004-07-28 Wednesday, July 28 0.751371 USD
2004-07-29 Thursday, July 29 0.754205 USD
2004-07-30 Friday, July 30 0.752106 USD
2004-08-02 Monday, August 2 0.751089 USD
2004-08-03 Tuesday, August 3 0.758438 USD
2004-08-04 Wednesday, August 4 0.760341 USD
2004-08-05 Thursday, August 5 0.75884 USD
2004-08-06 Friday, August 6 0.763359 USD
2004-08-09 Monday, August 9 0.75959 USD
2004-08-10 Tuesday, August 10 0.761093 USD
2004-08-11 Wednesday, August 11 0.755287 USD
2004-08-12 Thursday, August 12 0.750582 USD


I suppose it can't all be good news.

Down two days in a row. No idea why.

[0rion]

48. The Market LOVES FRIDAY THE 13th......nt

[54anickel]

59. I was thinking about that very thing this morning, what's tomorrow

going to bring? An not necessarily just in the markets.

[UpInArms]

51. 2:45 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,842.24 -96.08 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq 1,759.23 -23.19 (-1.30%)
S&P 500 1,066.41 -9.38 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 4.247% -0.030

2:30PM: S&P 500 Index, which has always been the focus of this page, is now up just 1 point for the week...the Dow is up 9 points...the Nasdaq, however, is down 23 points (-1.3%)...it is the tech news that has really hurt the market this week, from Cisco, to National Semi, to Hewlett-Packard...of course, oil has been a negative wild card as well, but overall, the broader news from Wal- Mart, to Disney, to the retail sales report, has been reasonably good...

the question is to what degree less than expected growth (Cisco had 26% year- over-year revenue growth) in tech impacts the overall economy and the value of non-tech stocks...NYSE Adv/ Dec 1012/2196, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 796/2218

1:55PM: Indices continue to press lower, tone remains very defensive...oil prices and concerns about tech with little offsetting positive news...another slow day for volume looks on tap, headed for maybe 1.2 billion shares...NYSE Adv/Dec 957/2242, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 756/2212

[UpInArms]

52. is that some weird blather or what?

Is someone out there melting down?

S&P 500 Index, which has always been the focus of this page

That sounds like some type of disclaimer that makes absolutely no sense!

I haven't really noticed briefing.com "focusing" on the S&P in the time that DU has had the SMW, has anyone else?

And, if that is their "focus" - how come on the stock page http://finance.yahoo.com/mo they don't even have the S&P chart? (just the NASDQ and the DOW).

Too weird for me :shrug:

[54anickel]

57. Seen them state something like, the S&P lending support to the

other indexes quite a bit when things weren't going so well for the DOW and NAS. Then again, the S&P is also usually the focus of articles on manipulating the market as well. Easiest way to do it and hit all 3. "More with less" "More bang for your buck" :evilgrin:


Oh hell, my ISP has again slowed down to a crawl.

[hatrack]

53. Say, has our ticker stopped running?

Looks like it's stuck at about 1:30 PM EDT . . . c'est la vie!

[KoKo]

54. Maybe they had to have a "fill in" write this update because the other one

couldn't take it anymore, writing that blather. Agree, I've not noticed S&P being their focus. But, I concentrate more on Nasdaq...so maybe all this time I missed it...:shrug: weird.

[UpInArms]

56. 3:47 EST and slumping toward a bloody close

Dow 9,823.88 -114.44 (-1.15%)
Nasdaq 1,757.68 -24.74 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1,064.35 -11.44 (-1.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250% -0.027

dollar

Last trade 88.69 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

[54anickel]

58. Pronouncement from on High reviewed by a Realist

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/norcini081004.html

snip>

The simple truth is the Fed was forced into hiking the 25 basis points to save face since Greenspan cannot well afford to look incompetent after boxing himself into a corner with his irrational prognostications a mere few weeks ago. Three questions I have for Mr. Greenspan since he stated that a "portion of the rise in prices reflects transitory factors".

One - define the word "transitory". Is it six months, one year, two years, etc.? How long will high crude prices be here to stay and what conditions can he see that the rest of us cannot see that will bring crude prices back down to within former price levels? Is it increased production? Is it reduced demand? Which is it? Please clarify and enlighten us O wise one. Last I heard the some of the oil majors did not want any more Saudi HEAVY crude.

snip>

Two - if "a portion" of the rise in prices reflects transitory factors, what portion is it - 20%, 30%, 50%, 75%? Clarification would be most beneficial to us dolts. Along this same line Alan, should we not simply ignore this transitory rise in prices since according to the geniuses at the Department of Labor, it is only the "core" rise in the CPI that need concern us. After all, food and energy costs are too volatile to include in the actual calculation of the rate of inflation and thus should be excluded. Now you are telling us that "inflation has been somewhat elevated this year" and that part of that elevation is due to rising energy prices. So are you saying that we now should include the price of energy in our CPI calculations? If so, why not go ahead and just put the food and energy cost component back in the CPI "core"? It occurs to me that you will include the cost of energy in your assessments whenever it is favorable to what you are arguing and exclude it whenever it is not favorable. That's what I have always loved about you the most - your consistency.

Three - what are the other factors outside of the "portion" that are responsible for this rise in prices? Could one of those happen to be the Fed's systematic debasement of the U.S. Dollar through its reckless monetary policy and its Bernanke Money Machine?

snip>

[54anickel]

60. Oh sure, the day in the markets is over and NOW my connection

seems to be just fine. Sheesh!

[UpInArms]

61. Closing Numbers and blather

Dow 9,814.59 -123.73 (-1.24%)
Nasdaq 1,752.49 -29.93 (-1.68%)
S&P 500 1,063.23 -12.56 (-1.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.250% -0.027

briefing.com

Close: It was another day when tech stock problems and high oil prices hurt the stock market...the indices opened lower across the board after Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 16.92 - 1.60) presented not only a disappointing second quarter earnings report, but warned that the third quarter would be below Wall Street expectations as well...that would have been enough to cause a rough day, but oil prices also rose another $0.70 and the September crude oil contract closed at $45.50...

Wal-Mart (WMT 52.66 +1.03) and Target (TGT 41.90 +1.48), the two largest retailers, had good earnings reports, but that had little broad impact as the market's negative tone is more attuned to bearish news at this time...July retail sales were up 0.7% which, when combined with an upward revision to June, actually left the July level above expectations even though a gain of 1.1% was expected...volume was moderate while decliners easily outpaced advancers...after the close, Dell is set to report earnings...the market tone remains very defensive and concerned about potential negative news...

the market has lost all of the early gains of this week and both the Dow and S&P are down less than 1 point, while the tech problems have the Nasdaq down about 24 points...

ino.com

The NASDAQ Composite index closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends this summer's decline, a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2003-04 rally crossing at 1694.22 is possible later this year. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1821.20 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The September S&P 500 index posted a key reversal down on Thursday and tested last week's low crossing at 1061. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. If September extends last week's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 later this month. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10- day moving average crossing at 1082.15 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday due to earnings warnings from Hewlett-Packard and rising oil prices. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday as the door is open for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 9585 later this year. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9985 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dow.

[JNelson6563]

62. Bloody and bruised, they retire for the day

and will return tomorrow for more of the same.

Nice reporting today everybody! I enjoyed the articles, blurbs and commentary, as always.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

64. Good to see you here Julie!

When do you get to come and play with us again?

:toast:

[JNelson6563]

67. Soon to be back more I hope!

We've got a visit from the idiot usurper on Monday following back-to-back fundraisers on Friday night and Saturday day. We'll barely be able to get the protest signs done on Sunday to give Jr. a warm Traverse City welcome.

Just think though, our little burg is drawing attention from the very top. We must be doing something right. They've always counted on the north to help them in Michigan--they can only hope to supress the vote in Deeetroit while the bumpkins up north vote fascist. Not anymore. Things look very bad for them here now so they are panicking and thinking they need to firm up their base.

We couldn't be more delighted. A wonderful progress report on just how well we've been doing. We're hoping a visit from Kerry to counter this will happen soon.

Viva la revolution!

Julie

[OilemFirchen]

63. An interesting stat from today's action

276 NAZ issues hit new lows today. That's 8.625% of the index.

Lots of growth funds are likely being demolished by the NAZ meltdown.

[loudsue]

65. I have a dumb question.....'cause I don't have a clue!!

It's about the dollar:

When it says "dollar prices 88.63 (+.6) <or whatever>.... what is the 88.63 number? I assume the + or - is from the last trade. But if it means the dollar is worth 88.63 cents (???), who is it worth that to, and in relation to what??

Did I ask this right?

:shrug: <loudsue, without a clue!>

:kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

66. Hi loudsue! Not a dumb question -

Using your 88.63 (+.6) number, I will attempt to explain how it works (and I may get parts wrong - if so, someone come in here and make it better!)

88.63 would be a value based on a "basket of currencies" - it is a weighted average that can vary with some currencies fluctuating up or down, therefore having a reaction within the action.

The Chinese yuan is "pegged" to the dollar at 8.28 Renminbi to the dollar - China buys US treasuries to keep that "peg" in place. It is not a part of the "basket".

For a list of currencies that play a part of the "basket", you can go here:

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/

You will see two listings for each currency (these will depend upon the dates of the futures being "sold" - the top one of the two being the earliest and the bottom being the later), but they will give you an idea of the fluctuations that occur within each currency market.

Currency futures trade a lot like stocks (but I would hate to be a currency trader), so if you believe that one currency would have greater or lesser value at some point, you can jump into that game.

If you look at the long-term trend on the dollar (that chart can be found here: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=dmax - you will note that the trend is definitely downward.

The dollar affects our global trading position and our debts with other nations.

There are a lot of people that think that a "weak" dollar promotes more trade with other countries by making our exports cost less, therefore bringing in more foreign currency or assets into the US. Then there is the other part of that equation which means that it takes more of our dollars to purchase foreign goods if our dollar is weaker. It is rather a two-edged sword.

The problem that I see is that the US manufacturers and exports less and less and we continue to purchase more imports than ever, which balloons our trade deficit and when the dollar is weak, it takes ever more of those to maintain that consumer habit.

I hope that I have answered your question - if not, ask again and I will attempt to cover it better.

:hi:

[loudsue]

69. Thanks, UpInArms! But ...one more question....

So it DOES kind of mean that the dollar is really worth (in purchasing power & in "political popularity") 88.69 cents as compared to whatever it would bring, at whatever time, the currency was first priced....or compared to when it was, at some point in the past, considered to have a 1 to 1 value ratio pegged to a certain date and time where valuations STARTED??

Or am I completely off the mark? Like stocks, for instance: If they trade at 35.15, that means they cost $35.15 per share. So, if the dollar is at 88.69, does that "compare" to when it at some point was equal to a dollar (one for one)??

And if the Euro is at 122.05 ..... does that mean it's worth $1.2250, or one dollar and 22 cents American? IOW, is it all <the value> pegged to the dollar, when we look at the futures?

Thanks for helping me out on this!

:kick:

[54anickel]

71. Hey LoudSue!

Here's a link to the Fed's dollar index. I posted something quite a while back on the US$ and the different "values" assigned. The Fed actually uses a different index than most folks refer to such as the one on INO.

I'd have to try and find that original article I posted. May be able to dig it up tomorrow or over the weekend.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/econ_rd/dol_index/di_index.cfm

[54anickel]

72. Here's that original thread LoudSue. It's late so I didn't check the

links I put in the post (and I can't follow my rambling from back then, could have something to do with too many beers at horseshoes tonight). Anyway, here's the thread. Perhaps UIA can help to sort it out in the AM.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=398669#398820

[UpInArms]

74. thanks 54anickel!

I'll try to read all those links and see what I can come up with :D

[54anickel]

76. Heh-heh-heh. Yeah, there were a lot of links in that one, huh? Sorry

'bout that.

[UpInArms]

73. the answer to your question -

And if the Euro is at 122.05 ..... does that mean it's worth $1.2250, or one dollar and 22 cents American? IOW, is it all <the value> pegged to the dollar, when we look at the futures?

is - yes.

If you were to purchase an item from a country that participates in the Euro (Switzerland and the UK, although part of Europe, do not use "Euro dollars), you would pay an exchange rate on the currency. If the price for that item was 5 euros, you would calculate the amount that you would need to pay by multiplying 1 x 1.2205 - which would be $6.10.

Thanks for your interest in this - the value of our money and the way it is used around the globe is pretty fascinating to me :)

[54anickel]

75. Hey UIA, you still up? Seems I need to do my work at night while

my ISP is up instead of during the day - HA! Loudsue's question reminded me of that old discussion we had a while back so I went digging for it. HA, that was a fun day!!!

Well, jammy time for me. Hope to be up and running in the AM. :hi:

[BushLicks]

68. This only means that there's more room for another...

Quick Recovery!!

[54anickel]

70. Fed Said Aggressive Policy May Be Needed (Ewwww!)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5962062&pageNumber=0

snip>

EXTERNAL DEFICITS

The June meeting minutes also included discussion of the U.S. trade and current account deficits, which the committee said were likely unsustainable over the long-term.

"At more than $500 billion, the deficits in trade and current account balances are quite large in comparison with aggregate income," the minutes said, attributing the gap to America's low national saving rate.

"Financing of the deficits had recently included large foreign private purchases of U.S. securities and increased foreign official inflows," the June minutes said. "The staff noted that outsized external deficits could not be sustained indefinitely."

Still, the FOMC found such deficits could be quite persistent, adding large shifts were not necessarily imminent.

"The adjustment, once under way, might well proceed in a relatively benign fashion, particularly if fiscal, monetary and trade policies were appropriate, but the possibility that the adjustment could involve more wrenching changes could not be ruled out," the minutes said.

FOMC members concluded external imbalances would be best dealt with by fiscal policy, in the hands of Congress and the White House, and not monetary policy which "could best contribute by maintaining an environment of price stability that would foster maximum sustainable economic growth."

"Fiscal policy had had a potentially larger role to play by promoting an increase in national saving, but the adjustment would involve shifts in demand and output both domestically and abroad, and changes to U.S. fiscal policy alone would not be sufficient to foster the adjustment," the minutes said.