Rift Grows As Iranians Caught Fighting For Sadr

[Strelnikov_]

I'm confused, will Iran be playing the role of Laos, Cambodia or North Vietnam in this little adventure.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1282215,00.html
The Guardian
Friday August 13, 2004

. . .

We are checking their identities but if they are found to have links to the Iranians then that would be tantamount to a declaration of war by them," said a senior Iraqi source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The source said members of Iraq's national security committee had yesterday been presented "with revealing information about the extent of Iranian involvement in Iraqi affairs", which was being taken seriously at the "highest echelons of government".

There was increasing frustration "at our neighbour's apparent indifference to cross-border security, despite promises of cooperation".

The source said two trucks laden with weapons destined for the fighters of the militant cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, had been stopped at the Iranian border on Wednesday night.

. . .

[LittleApple81]

1. Come on, this is what they did to Cambodia, Laos and anybody they

want to attack. THIS IS BULLSHIT!!!!

[Yavin4]

2. I'm Feeling A Draft

and it aint from the hurricanes.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

3. We are checking their identities

We need to check the id's of the people who fought with us/for us in the Afghan/Russian "conflict". We have deep sixed many of them... they are of little use now that Russia has been "tamed" and or neutered.

[Mike Niendorff]

4. The Bushies want a regional war

and, by hook or by crook, they're going to get it.


MDN

[Spiffarino]

5. Doubtful we'll go into Iran any time soon

I know a lot of us here at DU believe that Bush would love an excuse to wage war on Iran. I don't think that's true and here's why:

Population
Iraq: 25,374,691
Iran: 69,018,924

Area
Iraq: About twice the size of Idaho
Iran: Larger than Alaska

Military manpower - males age 15-49 fit for military service
Iraq: 3,654,947
Iran: 12,434,810

Now, Bush may be stupid enough to think we could wage war against Iran, but I don't think his handlers quite approach that level of dumb. Rumsfeld and Cheney must understand how thinly our military resources are stretched around the world. Iraq has proven difficult at best; a full-scale war against an enemy as formidable as Iran at this point would be an absolute disaster.

I suspect if the U.S. military does anything, it will be limited to a bombing campaign designed to make the Iranians think twice about meddling in Iraq. Think lots of buildings, bridges, and civilians blown up, and Shrub on the TV yelling about how they're "tuff on terra," with that I-just-crapped-my-pants-and-I-don't-care expression on his face.

OTOH, if Cheney, Rumsfeld, and the rest of the neocon chickenhawks turn out to actually be stupid enough to start a ground war with Iran, we're in deep shit.

[Yavin4]

7. If I Have Learned Nothing Else These Past Four Years, I Have Learned This

Never underestimate the stupidity and the cowardly machismo of this administration. They didn't care about the logistics of Iraq, and they won't care about the logistics of Iran. They'll go into Iran with a thin military. Thus, setting up the perfect argument for the draft. What congressman would vote against a draft when it's absolutely necessary to fight the war.

No, my friend, the Bush cabal's plan is to keep us in war for a long, long time. Constant war is the secret to their success.

[Dancing_Dave]

10. Yes, and John Kerry may be walking right into their trap

By not clearly distinguing himself from catastrophic foriegn policies of the Bush Administration. At the Democratic Convention, he seemed to state agreement with the Bush-Cheney doctrine of pre-emptive war, which would give him little to object to a catastrophic invasion of Iran with. We need to get out their with all the peace activism we can do, and waking up a bit of Kerry's old Vietnam Veterans Against the War self might help him see the need to make a much sharper break with the PNAC neo-con global imperialism.

This is no time to be throwing fuel on just the kind of uncritical natioanalist fire the Bush Administration needs to pull their tricks!

[Tight_rope]

13. Exactly...."War is simply an extension of politics by other means"!

[saigon68]

16. I agree with you

certain generals will piss and moan, troop morale will be in the tank--- but in the end the WEST POINT GREY LINE will fall in lockstep and kill a few RAG HEADS or maybe even KILL A COMMIE for mommy !!!!!

[Strelnikov_]

9. I Agree, It Will Be Similar To The Kosovo Campaign

only much more intense, longer, and with little disregard for civilian casualties. The protection of a newly democratic Iraq from Iran will be the pretense for keeping massive numbers of U.S. troops in Iraq.

Also, we can look forward to a lower frequency of 'terra' alerts as coverage of 'shock and awe' bombing missions will provide any needed diversion of the populace.

Can anyone say Eastasia (Eurasia became sovereign on June 30th).

[Tight_rope]

11. Bush 1 was stupid enough to do it...why not Dimpson...

The whole world knows that Dubya is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

[drdtroit]

15. Looks like an 18 to 45 year old draft.

[GHOSTDANCER]

17. Isn't Operation Summer Pulse still going on?

Never underestimate the stupidity of this Adminstration.

[oasis]

19. MOAB was designed to cut Iran down to size.

[Strelnikov_]

6. My Question Is, What Faction In Iran Is Providing Aid?

It seems entirely plausible to me that Iran is sending an increasing amount of military aid to Shiite groups in Iraq. My question is, what faction in Iran in doing this?

Iran seems to be extremely complex, with the population being split into four groups: Young people (who make up 1/2 the country), most of whom just want more political/economic freedom; Moderates who want to steer the country toward some form of democracy; Conservative clerics who want to maintain the status quo; and the Revolutionary Guard who have been described as a state within a state (until recently, that is).

The magnitude of the disaster that the Iraq adventure will trigger has yet to be experienced. However, I think that at a minimum it has greatly complicated any resolution of our differences with Iran. It appears that we are on the cusp of driving a majority of the population, who wanted better relations with the West, into the arms of the Clerics and their new allies, the Revolutionary Guards.

I guess this is what happens when you have a Commander-In-Chief that doesn't do nuance. Does the following statement describing the current political climate in Iran remind you of another country?

"The clear trend in Iran is that the hard-liners have indicated that they don't care what it is that the people want. They believe that they have God on their side, and they are prepared to do what is necessary in order to continue with their rule."


Iranian Leadership
globalsecurity.org
http://globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/leadership.htm

. . .

The clear trend in Iran is that the hard-liners have indicated that they don't care what it is that the people want. They believe that they have God on their side, and they are prepared to do what is necessary in order to continue with their rule. Iran has an evolving constitutional change, which has been to reduce the powers of elected positions, like that of the president of the parliament, and to expand the powers of appointed positions from the supreme religious leader, and to expand the powers of the judiciary. So the space for elections is diminished. But only the hardest liners among the conservatives are prepared to use all-out repression at this point. That reflects this constant dynamic between hard-liners and more moderate camps within the Islamic government that is really moving toward a more representative and democratic system. The hardest-line people are the people who control the secret police, the people who control the military, and the Revolutionary Guards. And they have clearly indicated that they are prepared to use force to kill people in order to stay in power, irrespective of what the election shows.

. . .



The Revolutionary Guards Are Back
The Economist
Jun 17th 2004
http://economist.com/world/africa/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2773140
. . .

THE ramshackle traffic police in Tehran are nowadays backed up by muscular paramilitaries in camouflage fatigues. Dozens of seats in parliament and a brace of top posts have recently been filled by ex-servicemen. The generals have stopped President Muhammad Khatami's reformist government from putting a showpiece airport into operation. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), set up more than two decades ago as an ideological counterweight to the less politically minded (and now less well-equipped) regular army, may be quietly taking control.

The reformists, once dominant but now being squeezed out of power, fear so. Last year their conservative opponents helped a former guardsman become Tehran's mayor. In May, another was appointed to head the broadcasting monopoly. One reformist newspaper reckons that some 90 out of 290 deputies in Iran's new parliament have a “background in revolutionary and military institutions.

. . .

[finecraft]

8. O.K. - try this tinfoil hat on

I think this is all tied into Ahmed Chalabi. There was an article in the Christian Science Monitor two weeks ago, before the heavy fighting started, that said Chalabi was cozying up with Al-Sadr. Everyone knows that Chalabi is pissed because he was ultimately trashed by the Neocons, and was denied what he feels is his rightful due--to become the ruler of Iraq. This has been his dream for over 20 years. I think Chalabi worked a deal with his friends in Iran to have them supply al-Sadr's militia with weapons and manpower. I think we are seeing a coup attempt by Chalabi, using as-Sadr and his militia supported by the Iranians. If the coup were successful, Chalabi could assume his "rightful" position as ruler of Iraq (and stick it to his old Neocon friends), al-Sadr could become the resident "cleric in charge", and Iran would not have the US as a next door neighbor. Any thoughts?

[Strelnikov_]

12. One Name, Johnny Chung

Travel back to those halcyon days in 1996 when the right-wing was trying to convince the American people that the Clinton Administration was in the pocket of the Han Chinese just because they tried to slip some money, through an Asian-American
intermediary, to the DNC. Oh the outrage, the Democrats accepting checks from a contributer who was not honest about where the money came from. Hey, they were just trying to conduct business the American way, by buying influence (they had to spend the Wal-Mart money somewhere, so it may as well have been on K Street).

Now jump forward to 2004. Ahmed Chalabi, guest of the first lady at a SOTU address, adviser to top administration officials, turns out to be:

- at best, a world class lier, forger and embezzler;

- at worst, an agent provocateur for a hostile regime.

Did this result in outrage and investigations? No. The message is that our poor, trusting, patriotic administration neo-cons were victims (poor little fellers).

At least the Democrats got paid for their screwing. Does this mean they are the better businessmen?

[DemBones DemBones]

14. I can see al-Sadr and the Iranians hitting if off

since they're all intensely Muslim but Chalabi? He seems to be secular, or at least not an Islamic traditionalist. Would he be willing to grow a beard and dress like other traditional Muslims to gain power?

Otherwise, it is an intriguing possibility. The Christian Science Monitor has always been a reputable source, too.

[AP]

18. I wonder what all those Iranians think of all those Americans fighting...

..."for" Iraq.

That must be pretty fucked up from their perspective. After all, they're from next door and we're from the other side of the globe.

[GHOSTDANCER]

20. tantamount to a declaration of war??????

If they can't understand that a few people from outside nations are going to cross into Iraq and help in the fight, These people are stupider then I thought.


I bet Faux News will beat the Hell out of this.

[burrowowl]

21. Getting better all the time

Iran not only has some serious troops but also some serious fire power.
Do the neo-cons think that we will be greeted in Teheran with flowers and nectar?
Have we finished our bases in Iraq to attack Iran?