New Zogby Poll: Kerry 50 Bush 43 - Likely Voters

[ruggerson]

Sunday 8/15

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=851

In head to head to head match.

With Nader, it's Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 2

Kerry has increased his lead 2% in the last two weeks

[grasswire]

1. hoooooray!

Thanks for the news. Thanks, thanks.

[newscaster]

2. I am one of those on the zogby poll

It was a very long and involved poll this time, with the usualy political questions plus questions about soft druinks, product preferences, etc.

[Rose Siding]

6. This is a telephone poll

Did you get called?

I took the internet poll and it was baffling, like you described but I don't see how it would be included in this nat'l poll.

[osaMABUSh]

10. Were you in the telephone poll or Web poll?

I got an email from Zogby Friday with the same questions. This poll is a telephone poll which should be more accurate that a Web poll.

"Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of 1011 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Thursday, August 12 through Saturday, August 14."

[Triana]

11. I do the zogby polls too - whazzup with the weird questions..

...these days? I don't mind answering them, but not sure whether I might drink pepsi or coke has to do w/ anything. Ah well. The core questions about bu$h vs Kerry are still there, anyway.

[Endangered Specie]

15. Its somewhat standard pratice...

to always include questions that don't matter when you do a survey. Im not entirely sure why, but I imagine there is a reason. In theory, you shouldn't be able to tell which ones are genuine and which are bogus (edit to finish this sentence)

[neonplaque]

32. 'reset' questions

I believe those seemingly 'goofy' off-topic questions are designed to 'reset' the thinking of the person being polled and ready for the next real question.

[demoman123]

48. n/t

[Eurobabe]

27. I got that one too, but I think these are tabulated

for the "Real America" newsletters for Zogby, not exclusively for the presidential polls, but I am not 100% sure. I am pretty sure those other questions (ie Coke vs. Pepsi) were standard marketing surveying, which Zogby does too.

http://www.zogby.com/realamerica/index.cfm

[NWHarkness]

33. They are control questions

The pollster knows the percentage of Coke vs. Pepsi that is sold. If his poll shows a number widely different from that, he knows there is something wrong with his sample.

[ChocolateSaltyBalls]

47. Why then did they only appear in this poll...........

and not the other Zogby's that I participated in?

[MidwestTransplant]

3. But the Swift Boat ads made me not want to vote for Kerry

Guess I was the only one!!! ;)

[Downtown Hound]

4. Hoo boy!

Zogby's interactive polls may be lame, but he has consistently been the most accurate when it comes to phone polling. Even Limbaugh quotes him for that very reason (when it suits his purpose that is). Great news!

[osaMABUSh]

5. Can't be. Today CNN showed Bush 50 - 47 in Gallup poll

Why doesn't anybody in the media ask: Is Gallup the only poll that ha is right or is Gallup the only poll that is wrong? Or why don't they talk about the Electoral College where Kerry is soundly ahead?

Frankly, I think it is to our advantage for it too look like we're behind slightly. It can only help the cause.

[quaoar]

20. Depends

Depends on how you determine who is a likely voter. Each poll uses different questions to determine that -- not just "Are you likely to vote."

[truthisfreedom]

36. bush and company are wearing depends rignt now.

they know Kerry is on his way to the White House.

[Davis_X_Machina]

21. Gallup's weighting formula is a little different...

..it takes into account the Mandate of Heaven and the wishes of the Baby Jesus.

[0007]

42. They need a saliva test

[Hoping4Change]

45. LOL

[Media_Lies_Daily]

23. Most of the current polls have Kerry ahead...except for CNN/Gallup,....

...and FOX.

[fujiyama]

38. Even Fox

shows Kerry ahead..

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4

43 Bush

48 Kerry

Unless there's a newer poll by them which shows Bush ahead

[Career Prole]

52. The new feature at www.pollingreport.com is a summary of all

the latest polls. I love it dearly. :D
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Notice the three red ones and the word they have in common...Gallup, Gallup, Gallup...

[joefree1]

26. "It can only help the cause"

Absolutely, sleep rethuglicans, sleep. No nasty tricks this time, you're way ahead.:evilgrin:



Images of the Bush Protest in Santa Monica, August 12, 2004
http://www.ediablo.com/BushProtest8-12-04.html

[Zen Democrat]

31. In last poll before 2000 vote, Gallup had Bush up by 13 points.

So much for Gallup.

[bluestateguy]

7. Nader should only be in the poll in states where he is on the ballot

He is not on the ballot in enough states to justify putting him in national poll. If it's a state poll where he's on the ballot, fine, but otherwise, there should be no Nader option unless the respondent volunteers it. Doing otherwise is just irresponsible polling.

[Nite Owl]

16. Do you know where he is on the ballot?

The libertarian is on the ballot so that does take from * and the Greens aren't on the ballot in the swing states.

[Endangered Specie]

17. I agree, only there is one small problem:

We wont know where Nader is on the ballot or is not in all the states for some time. Each state has different processes and deadlines, so its responsible to do a a poll with Nader and without him.

[ruggerson]

8. Swiftboat Liars

I think this is the beginning of a trend that we will see in the next few days as new polls show the backlash against the swiftboat liars. Undecided voters hate negative campaigning more than anyone. Bush/Rove made a huge mistake by not immediately denouncing these transparent swiftboat hacks. They may try to do so this week as their internal polling shows the tide turning against them.

[realcountrymusic]

9. An interesting number at the bottom

Bush's lead among rural voters is only 3 percent, within the MOE. Who woulda thunk it? (Me, that's who.) But will we hear this from the press? Of course not. Bush's support is concentrated in "small cities," while Kerry leads in big cities, suburbs, and is essentially tied in rural areas. Bush can take that phony haystack and jump in it. Country folks are not fooled. Damn, does that impress me.

RCM

[mom cat]

18. This old farm girl is not surprised either. Small farms are being

by agribusiness. And real family farmers love the land have some pretty commonsense bedrock values. I am glad to hear how good our guys are doing in the rural areas.

Don't it make your red states blue!:dem:

[Beetwasher]

37. Good Catch!

You're right, that's a very important stat...Welcome to DU!!

[Melodybe]

12. Wow all of those numbers look great!

Kerry keeps doing better and better, and Zogby said he was a strong closer.

And again I smile with glee thinking about Kerry mentioning Iran-Contra, meanwhile Bushco is planning to unvail their plans to get into war with Iran. Idiots! Even with diehard supporters another war will be hard to digest.

I am never amazed by how willing they are to shot themselves in the foot, people forget we are dealing with a bunch of C students.

Dumb asses!

[Cha]

13. Great! good to see and I hope it stays strong like this.

I know the bushits are reading these same polls and has them hot footin' it down to see what votes they can scare up from the Charley victims.

Cynical wench that I am.

[librechik]

14. well shut THEIR mouth!

(CNN/ABC/FAUX)

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

19. the ethnics are coming back to the Dems..in a big way...

"Eastern European" ancestry...these used to be the "Reagan Democrats", but Kerry is pulling them back.

[Kolesar]

44. I'm one of them

Do you know this from talking to people in your area?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. When politicians go negative, their voters run the other way.

[0rion]

24. Booosh is going DOWN BABY!

And I'm going to CELEBRATE!

[onehandle]

25. But, but....the sky is falling!

Kerry is doing So Badly!

;-)

[number6]

28. yea, baby

:thumbsup:

[ruggerson]

29. Who reports Zogby's numbers?

Does anyone know who is tied in with Zogby? Is it MSNBC? Reuters? The problem with the Gallup survey is that they are tied in with CNN and USAToday and get wide, wide coverage. Let's hope Zogby gets similar exposure.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

30. Well the "Gallup/Fuck" poll says that Emperor Chimpy is....

in a "commanding lead".

:crazy:

[Edgewater_Joe]

34. ... and that's "Likely" voters

That probably means that 'registered' voters -- a higher number that I have a sneaking suspicion will be closer to turnout than registered voters -- is at double digits for Kerry.

It doesn't obscure the fact that this past week was a bad week for Team Kerry, but it does show that if he presses the advantage, he could deal a crushing blow to the Wingnuts.

KEEP WORKING -- KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

39. Likely Voters

I don't know about Zogby's methodology, but "Likely Voters" is usually defined as persons who voted in the prior election. That means newly-registered voters aren't counted. Significant in that regard are the massive numbers of voters be registered by several 527 Organizations.

In Hamilton County (that's Cincinnati), our Board of Elections reports 35,000 new voters registrations this year, with the vast majority of them coming from organization like America Coming Together, which targets Democratic leaning neighborhoods and households, then maintains contact with those new voters to ensure that they go to the polls.

Kerry in a landslide? It could happen.

[sal]

35. Press is complicit in not reporting widening gap to further the coup

this coming election. Let History show how much they continued to spin the race as close in spite of overwelming evidence that Bush had faltered sometime around the torture scandal and has kept slipping all the way up till vote-fixing or a Reichstag-like terror event allows Bush to maintain power. The truth will out eventually, boys. Don't go down in history as traitors.

edited for spelling.

[kohodog]

40. Agreed, the Major Media Corporations

have more to lose if the Dems regain power (Not just in the exec. branch), and break up the media monopolies.

But will Kerry do that? I haven't heard him address the issue.

[PATRICK]

41. And those are just the

voters they can find, not the new voters who should break very heavily Kerry. You only have to look at the desperate efforts of the Bush camp to find "enthusiastic" new voters from the ranks of those who have not seen F9/11.

I think Bush passed his "Peak Bush Vote" way back in 2000. Attempts to scrounge new sources I hope are ruinously expensive.

[lolly]

43. Tinfoil Hat fitting here . . .

Are we getting set up for some kind of election challenge with these "close" polls? If Kerry has a big win, or wins where it was "unexpected," due to faulty/misleading polls, that might open the door for Republican attempts to de-legitimize the election.

On an even more tin-foilly note:

Didn't some Republicans start making noise about Democrats hacking into computers and stealing the elections?

Doesn't Rove have a history of pulling minor dirty tricks on his own candidate, then crying foul loudly?

Am I really crazy here (don't answer that!)

I can see Rove trying to fix some of the BBV in a pro-Kerry state or two, "discovering" the tampering, then trying to get that state's electoral votes thrown out. With the help of the Supreme Court, of course.

:tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat:

[RummyTheDummy]

46. Fucking Nader

There it is, plain as day. He's pulling about three percent from Kerry if you look at the poll with him in it.

I wish he would get out, but Kerry's comments last week about Iraq last week aren't going to help that. And frankly, looking at it from Nader's point of view, it's becoming slightly harder to blame him.

[Barkley]

49. I guess the "Orange Alert" effect is wearing off - nt

[JusticeForAll]

50. this is all nice...

But I wouldn't get too confident over a poll survey that polls only a 1000 voters, and probably does not weight accurately the impact of the Electoral College. They say the MoE is 3% but I have difficulty believing that, especially when state polls with similar or larger numbers of respondents have nearly the same MoE, yet are being stacked against considerably SMALLER populations.

I much prefer relying on the state by state tracking polls that survey considerably more people (like 1000 per STATE), and estimate likelihiood of receiving a state's alloted votes.

This is nice news, but can we really afford any complacency in this race?

[Zynx]

51. We should be energized by good numbers.

I actually did a state by state analysis and weighted polls by state according to their number of voters and found that Kerry leads by about 4 points nationally right now. With a normal split of undecideds in favor of the challenger, Kerry has a much larger lead.

[JusticeForAll]

53. Ooops, I totally agree, we should be energized.

Energy is great. Complacency is bad.

I am worried about people getting complacent over these numbers when the reality is, we have far to run in this race.

Having personally registered over 200 new Democratic voters I feel so hopeful (and energized) when these polls rely on the opinions of Likely Voters. They are missing the new voters who are angry and ready to cast their votes for the first time (or the first time in YEARS as many registrants tell me).

I try to get these same people to vote early through the Arizona Vote by Mail system, but they are insistent that they want to go to the polls and make sure their vote is counted rather than relying on the USPS to deliver their ballot. The energy is here, let's just not get compalcent till November!