Al Sadr agrees to deal.

[mourningdove92]

No details yet. Just announced on CNN>

[bemildred]

1. Getting really schizophrenic now.

Can we give the media tranks?

[Zynx]

2. Does that mean we fight him again in 2 months?

Let's see.

April-Fight with Sadr
June - Pretty sure he was a problem for a while here, IIRC
August - Another fight with Sadr
October - ???

[bemildred]

3. Really starting to remind me of Falloojah.

Back when Kimmet the Frog would hardly get something out of his mouth
before it would be contradicted by events on the ground or
the dimwits above him trying to "take control of the situation".

[iconoclastic cat]

4. Uh, hasn't Sadr backed out of, like, 2 deals already?

[indie_voter]

5. link here

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20040818/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_najaf

[bemildred]

6. Thanks.

Sounds like he is still one step ahead.

[Career Prole]

7. How 'bout the last line of that story?

"Muqtada al-Sadr has agreed on the conditions set by the National Conference," she said reading the letter to the conference.

"We call on the Iraqi government and the National Conference to participate in implementing what is proposed by Muqtada al-Sadr, otherwise everybody will bear the responsibility," the letter said.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20040818/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_najaf

And what happens if what al-Sadr wants conflicts with what * wants? We all are grimly aware of how * acts when he doesn't get what he wants...

[yellowcanine]

8. George Will thinks Iraqi Tet might be coming before election.

October surprise from Iraq? WP column this morning.

[rawstory]

9. DUPE

[rawstory]

10. nevermind, but...

seems dumb to lock the thread that actually has the link!

[maxsolomon]

11. don't deal with al sadr using SENSITIVITY for christ's sake

this is black or white. he's with us or against us.

to nuance this situation means the terrorists have won.

[mrdirt2000]

24. I agree, no sensitivity

Just take this guy out so he can no longer lead attacks on our soldiers.

[hadrons]

25. yeah, mrdirt2000 ... just take him out

its going to be that simply, huh?

[htuttle]

26. If al Sadr is in Najaf...

...How could he be leading attacks in the other 7 or 8 cities in Iraq currently in rebellion?

And if the US just 'takes him out', do you think the fighting in those other cities will stop or get worse?

Maybe think a move or two ahead next time. It really helps with the long-term planning...

:eyes:

[Aidoneus]

27. I encourage you to take..

your avatar's advice.

[bemildred]

12. There is no deal.

Al Sadr just punted the ball back to the "government".

[skip fox]

13. That's what I think as well.

He's playing for time all along. The longer he stretches out the confrontations and temporary "withdrawals," the greater his stature is. Ironically US involvement in Iraq might be brought to its knees by a minor cleric who was dynamically elevated in status by our own actions.

[htuttle]

22. "Ti-i-i-i-i-i-i-i-ime is on his side, yes it is"

Not only that, but the mere statement that he's willing to accept a deal makes it pretty impossible for the 'Iraqi government' to justify launching their offensive against the shrine (if they ever thought they could justify it).

So the US either has to withdraw the troops, or make them sit out in the desert while negotiations are ongoing -- and their supply lines remain under attack, of course.

"What a strange game. The only way to win is not to play."
-- Joshua, War Operations Plan and Response Computer

[papau]

14. Cleric Accepts Truce Terms-(now negotiate how it would be implemented

Rebel ClericAcceptsTruce Terms-(now negotiate how it would be implemented


http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGBXFHDO1YD.html

Radical Shiite Cleric Reportedly Accepts Peace Plan to End Fighting in Najaf
By Abdul Hussein Al-Obeidi
Associated Press Writer

NAJAF, Iraq (AP) - Radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr accepted a peace plan Wednesday to end fighting in Najaf that would disarm his militiamen and remove them from a holy shrine where they are hiding out, according to an al-Sadr spokesman. However, al-Sadr wanted to negotiate how the deal would be implemented.

The cleric's decision came just hours after Iraqi Defense Minister Hazem Shaalan said the government was prepared to raid the revered Imam Ali shrine as early as Wednesday to root out the militants.

The agreement could spell the end of the two-week resurgence of violence in this holy city that enraged many of the country's majority Shiites and posed the greatest test yet for the fledgling government of interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi.

The cease-fire deal was presented to al-Sadr's aides in Najaf on Tuesday by an eight-person delegation sent by the Iraqi National Conference, meeting in Baghdad. Al-Sadr himself declined to meet with the mediators. The proposal demanded the cleric's militia drop its arms, withdraw from the shrine and transform itself into a political party in exchange for amnesty.

Sheik Hassan al-Athari, an official at al-Sadr's office in Baghdad, said the cleric had agreed to the plan but wanted the delegation to return to Najaf to negotiate how it would be implemented and to ensure his militants would not be arrested. He said al-Sadr had other, more minor conditions, but did not elaborate. <snip>


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/18/international/middlee...

Rebel Cleric Accepts Truce Terms, Iraqi Conference Is Told
By SABRINA TAVERNISE

Published: August 18, 2004
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Aug. 18 — The rebel cleric Moktada al-Sadr has accepted conditions proposed by an Iraqi delegation to end fierce fighting in the holy city of Najaf, including the withdrawal of his militia from one of Shiite Islam's holiest shrines, a national conference was told today.

The conditions were delivered on Tuesday by a delegation from the Iraqi national conference that flew to the city in American army helicopters and met the cleric's aides in the Imam Ali shrine. The delegation had also urged Mr. Sadr to disarm and transform his fighters into an organization that would join the political process.

Mr. Sadr refused to meet with Tuesday's delegation in person, citing the continuing fighting between his men and the Americans.

For almost two weeks, his forces have battled Americans in Najaf, in the Sadr City district in Baghdad, and in several cities across southern Iraq. Earlier today, Iraq's defense minister, Hazim al-Shaalan, said that Iraqi, not American, forces would be the ones to take any action to eject the militia from the shrine. He demanded that Mr. Sadr's militia surrender, according to news reports quoting his remarks on Arab television.

But in what could signal an end to the standoff, a delegate to the national conference, which has been meeting in Baghdad since Sunday to form a national assembly, read a letter that she said was "news" from Mr. Sadr's office of his "approval of the conditions that the national conference has suggested."
<snip>

reuters: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&ncid=578&e=1&u=/nm/20040818/ts_nm/iraq_dc

[skip fox]

15. The disarming will be the only SURE sign.

I'm guessing it won't happen any time soon.

[papau]

16. On offer is guns back into folks houses = "disarm": A NRA point of

view perhaps?

[happyslug]

17. Translation

The Iraqi National Guard that was suppose to do the dirty work was found to be unwilling (or worse its commanders told the Americans their Troops will join Al Sada).

The US does NOT want to use its troops (Both to keep US deaths to a minimum but also to give this at least the face of Iraqi fighting Iraqi not Iraqi fighting American).

The US thus had a problem, back down in some face saving way, or go in with US Troops and Marines. The US did NOT want to go in with US Troops and Marines and the Iraqi National Guard threaten to dissolve or worse join AL Sadr. Thus some face saving way had to be found to end the standoff. Al Sadr probably agreed to disperse his troops (but not to disarm them OR to break up their organization) while the US Agreed to back down and claim the US won from Al Sadr an agreement to disperse his troops (with the US interpreting that to mean the complete break up of Al Sadr's forces, something AL Sadr is NOT ever going to agree to).

This what happened last time and later the US said Al Sadr back down on his word (He did NOT, he agreed to disperse his forces not to disarm them or to break up his units). Al Sadr said he only agreed to break up his units if the US Forces left the area (Something the US did not do). The US has refused to pull back from Najaf and the other Shiite Areas, and until the US does AL Sadr will NOT dissolve his units. Al Sadr is not an idiot, he knows his strength is in forcing the US to send in US forces to capture or kill him. This would upset the whole Muslim World (In addition to Iraq and the Arab World). As long as he is strong enough to defeat any IRAQI force sent to Capture him he is safe. HE knows it. His only fear is the US will sooner or later decide that the wrath of the Muslim World is worth killing or capturing Al Sadr. So far AL Sadr has been correct in his assessment of the US. The real question is how long will the US keep trying to kill or Capture him without the use of US troops? Sooner or later the issue will be brought to a head (Probably after the November election).

[Junkdrawer]

18. US has a third option: Send in US special forces and CLAIM that...

the Iraqis did it. In that case, they would need to evict all the journalists - you know - threaten to kill them if they stayed in Najaf. Fortunately, the US would never do that, would they?

[Aidoneus]

19. the more I try to understand this man that I sometimes admire,

the less sense it makes. He acts in the best examples of Husayn(AS), but in the worst of Ali(pbuh)..

:shrug:

[Teaser]

21. Juan Cole has speculated...

that asSadr has some kind of bipolar disorder...perhaps severe mood swings.

Who knows. It's a good explanation for the way he lurches back and forth between policies...

[Aidoneus]

23. I get that idea too

I can't blame him really, considering the life he's had and the responsibilities of taking care of a family of widows while keeping his own self among the roll call of The Breathing, now with the spotlight of the world hanging heavy on his shoulders ...

[yellowcanine]

29. No way - he knows exactly what he is doing - jerks us until we can't

be jerked anymore then agrees to a truce to rest and regroup. Nest time there will be more fighters and attacks will occur over a wider area.

[Vladimir]

20. BBC reports this too

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3577348.stm

[yellowcanine]

28. Of course he does. Rest and regroup time......Al Sadr is playing us

bigtime. No way will his militias disarm. Next time the uprising will be bigger and better with reinforcements of thousands of new recruits.

[chiburb]

30. "playing us"? or "U.S." ??

[skip fox]

31. Any updates?

Just what news organizations have imbedded reporters in Najaf or have reporters working on their own around the city? Every report I hear is from Bagdad, though pictures from Najaf are on the screen.

[bemildred]

32. Al jazeera version of the "Al Sadr caves" story:

Al-Shaibani said the peace plan to end the Najaf standoff rested on three key points.

Al-Mahdi army hands over the Old City to a responsible, honest party.
The al-Sadr movement participates in the political process.
Other issues discussed with the national security adviser, Muwaffaq al-Rubai.

"Our leader al-Sadr is ready to meet the delegation when the security situation gets better, where the bombing
stops and the siege is lifted," al-Shaibani told Aljazeera.

Al-Shaibani said al-Sadr?s organisation was ready to take part in the political process "if it is honest".

"We discussed these points and 10 other points with Muwaffaq al-Rubai, and our efforts were successful. The
delegation went back satisfied," he said.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FBB501FD-98D6-433C-9738-B3FC9ABCC51C.htm