Jobless Claims Dip (331000), No Storm Effect (effect expected next week)

[papau]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20040819/bs_nm/economy_jobless_dc&sid=95609869
Jobless Claims Dip, No Storm Effect

The number of Americans filing first claims for jobless pay fell 3,000 last week, the Labor Department said on Thursday in a report showing no impact from Hurricane Charley which struck Florida last Friday. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits dipped to 331,000 in the week ended Aug. 14, their third straight weekly drop, from a revised 334,000 in the previous week, the department said...Florida's state unemployment agency did not indicate there were any effects from Hurricane Charley in last week's data as the hurricane struck on the last day of the reporting week, the Labor Department said. Jobless claims may worsen in the weeks ahead as people in Florida who were forced out of their jobs due to the devastation of the storm begin to file for unemployment benefits, the department said. <snip>

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=530&ncid=530&e=2&u=/ap/20040819/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/jobless_claims

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits edged down last week for a third consecutive time, signaling that the labor market may be improving after hitting a speed bump in June and July. <snip>

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

August 19, 2004 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Aug. 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 331,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 334,000. The 4-week moving average was 337,000, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average of 339,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending Aug. 7, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.3 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 7 was 2,904,000, an increase of 16,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,888,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,910,000, an increase of 28,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,881,250.


UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 266,235 in the week ending Aug. 14, a decrease of 25,039 from the previous week. There were 312,087 initial claims in the comparable week in 2003.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.2 percent during the week ending Aug. 7, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 2,726,472, a decrease of 37,037 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.7 percent and the volume was 3,379,961.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajU3NRw.EUBI&refer=us

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Seen Rising Last Week, Survey Says
Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time jobless claims may have risen to 335,000 last week (from 333,000), holding below the average for the year and suggesting improvement in the U.S. labor market, economists said ahead of a government report.

Economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey ranged from 325,000 to 345,000.. Jobless claims have averaged 345,000 a week this year... (The effects of Hurricane Charley on claims may not be felt until next week's report, economists said). <snip>

Sysco Corp. ..said this week it will impose a.. hiring freeze<snip>

The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing gauge for this month is expected to drop to 30<snip>

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040818_2700.html
Delta to Cut More Jobs in Restructuring (beyond the 16,000 cut last 3 years as it became a 70000 employee firm). http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5756687/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5744041/
BANK OF AMERICA SET TO LAY OFF HUNDREDS (about 1500)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040819/bs_nm/tech_nortel_earns_dc
Nortel to Cut 3,500 Jobs to Boost Profit

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5756693/
US Airways chairman says liquidation looms

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5624615/
Bush's message on economy takes beating -President Bush’s election-year message that the economy is strong and “getting stronger” is being shaken by a three-pronged assault of weak employment growth, higher oil prices and a slumping stock market

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5612752/
Debate turns to quality of jobs

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1519&ncid=749&e=6&u=/afp/20040819/bs_afp/britain_economy_retail
British retail sales decline for first time in over a year

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=10&u=/afp/20040813/bs_afp/us_economy_trade&sid=96001027
US trade gap explodes to record in June

[Frodo]

1. Hmmm. I hadn't thought about that.

I guess if your company blows away in a hurricane... you ARE unemployed (if only while it gets rebuilt, but that could be months).


Are there estimates for how many people are impacted (job wise) this way?

[Ghetto_Boy]

2. The perfect storm (for Kerry)?

[Frodo]

3. Unlikely.

The problem is that while it could slightly impact the jobs numbers week to week (and give Bush an excuse for why things didn't improve), you can't take it away from the larger picture which is that the storm severely impact people's lives. And in a state as close as Florida, the last thing we need is an opportunity for the Bushes to look presidential and gubernatorial(?).

Kerry can't match the press coverage that is bound to help Bush a little in Florida. (Though I don't agree that now was the right time to take a vacation, he can't DO much of anything in FL).

That won't eb offset by the job numbers caused by the storm. Nobody is going to see a burned down gas station and say the five guys who worked there are unemployed because of Bush.

[papau]

4. 20000 to 23000 new UE claims over next 4 weeks - folks do not put in

claims right away.

Indeed given the age of the population affected, there may be very few claims. All we know for certain is that these stats have zero claims from the storm in them.

[papau]

8. jobless over 1 week rose 16,000

The number of people who remained on the jobless rolls after collecting an initial week of benefits rose 16,000 to 2.90 million in the week ended Aug. 7, the latest for which figures are available

[Yavin4]

5. More People Are Working On A Temp Basis

which means that they work assignment by assignment, so they don't always qualify for UE benefits nor do they file for them.

[ItsMyParty]

6. You should have seen how this was displayed on the CNN ticker

'cause it said volumes. It reported that the claims dipped 3,000 and then the very next "ticker" story was of a coporation (can't remember which one) who will announce 3,500 layoffs today/tomorrow. Yep, great economy George...just great.

[RummyTheDummy]

7. Doesn't matter

Most people have already made up their minds about BushCO's economic policies. It won't be a plus for him in this election in any way shape or form. It cant be. THere's not enough time between now and Nov. for the economy to recover enough for him to be able to point to it and say things are great and have people take him seriously.

He's toast, on that issue at least.

[llmart]

9. Tell us Michiganders about this "wonderful" news.....

Check out today's headlines in Detroit's conservative news.

www.detnews.com