CBSPoll:Kerry&Bush ThisClose(Kerry 46-45-1 from prior 48-43-3, 835RV,MOE3)

[papau]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/08/19/opinion/polls/main637122.shtml

CBSPoll:Kerry&Bush ThisClose(Kerry 46-45-1 from prior 48-43-3, 835RV,MOE3))
NEW YORK, August 19, 2004


<snip>st after the Democratic convention, John Kerry led President George W. Bush by a small margin; the recent tightening of the race reflects a loss of support for Kerry among some of this election’s most contested groups: Independents, veterans and Catholic voters. <snip>

When Ralph Nader is not included in the question, Kerry runs three points ahead of Bush, 47 percent to 44 percent. Those results also show Kerry in a somewhat weaker position against Bush than he was just after his convention, when he had a six-point lead over Bush in the two-candidate vote question. <snip>


As has been the case for months, nearly all voters who align themselves with either the Democratic or Republican Party will support their party’s candidate. One group of voters being intently watched is Independents, and their support has been more fluid. In this poll, 44 percent of Independents would vote for Kerry, while 39 percent support Bush(44-39-4). In a CBS News Poll conducted just after the Democratic convention, Independent voters gave a much larger seventeen-point lead to Kerry (50-33-7).

Persuadable voters have a negative view of Bush, but they still don’t know much about John Kerry. The President’s approval ratings among this group are low; 43 percent approve of the job he is doing overall, 30 percent approve of how he is handling Iraq, and 27 percent approve of his handling of the economy. They like the way the president is handling terrorism, however; 57 percent approve of that. As for his adversary, six in ten have formed no opinion yet of John Kerry. <snip>

ISSUE VOTERS MOST WANT TO HEAR THE CANDIDATES ADDRESS:
(Registered Voters)

Economy/jobs
24%
War in Iraq
20%
Health care
12%
Foreign policy/defense
6%
Education
5%
Terrorism
5%

[ClintonTyree]

1. At this point.................

if these undecided voters "don't know much about Kerry", they haven't been paying attention. If they'd get off the sofa, put down the remote and do a little reading, they'd know everything they needed to make an informed decision.

What does Kerry have to do? Does he have to go to each individual's home, sit in their living room and discuss the issues, one on one?
If they don't know enough about Kerry it's their own fault.

[Frodo]

4. What he need to do is DEBATE.

(Not that HE is the one dodging anything).


This is precisely what most experts would have expected to happen. Things were essentially tied with a slight lean towards Kerry. During the month or so ending with the convention Kerry pulled slightly further ahead and is now losing that as momentum swings the other way for the Rep convention. Bush will probably develope a slight lead over the next few weeks and then ALSO fade back down to about even.

THEN come the debates. Impressions from the debates tend to stick through to the end. That's when you put both candidates side by side and make them answer the same questions.

[PATRICK]

18. The best face of the conventional contest

is what is driving this poll analysis. Some facts such as shifts up and down around conventions are true. What they are ignoring and helping the nation ignore are more important to keep this stubborn illusion of "closeness" operative up unitl election or some tyerrorist incident that means they can throw out the carry lead altogether and let W steal as much as he wants under cover.

Bush's ugly parade to NYC is getting rained on steadily, but like Napoleon retreating from Russia he has no choice but to slog on. Democrats would be better advised to get a grip on grass roots reality than any polls or media coverage and of course keep working furiously.

The hardcore analysis conflicts with the feel good closeness wisdom. Whole states have gone belly up for Bush who has little left to gain and is pretty good at losing. You might as well hire that Venezuela poll firm
if you want to despair over something or other.

The main frustration is that the path is still long and the rout has not yet happened, which is good considering the irrtants that motivate Kerry supporters to work harder. The last barrier, which is crumbling in various states, is a margin close enough to let the e-voting machines kick in winning numbers, or other cheap tricks and media distractions.

[Geo55]

20. Yeah,

"That's when you put both candidates side by side and make them answer the same questions."

and that's when calling it a "debate" is pure BS....but I'll take what is force fed....JK will still look golden against idiot boy.

[robcon]

2. "Independent voters" are another word for

uninvolved citizens - at least a good part of them. The ones that don't know John Kerry are the ones who just don't care.

[goclark]

3. CNN is twisting this poll

in their favor. They are calling it as the voice of gloom for the election.

Are other polls saying this?

[My Pet Goat]

5. Weird, so they decided to look past their Gallup poll...

when the opportunity arises to make Kerry look bad.

[trogdor]

7. They want it close.

When the Cowboys are ahead by four touchdowns in the third quarter, who is sticking around to watch the end of the game? Anyone who bought ad time during the last hour is sucking because most of the eyeballs have already changed the channel to "America's Dumbest Criminals" or some other tripe. The media are manipulating the election and the polls for the same reason - to inject drama into the race for the purpose of building an audience.

Somebody PLEEEEEEEEEEEASE tell me I'm full of shit.

[Charles19]

26. Sorry but...

you are not full of it.

Al Franken hit on some of this on his program the other day. They want it close and due to Kerry's lead have been bolstering Bush much more favorably in the press lately.

I believe that is why Newsweek put on the cover a bit ago "Unravelling the election plot". There is no plot, good for Bush's cranking up the heat though.

For anyone who still has a shread of doubt that the mainstream news is not partaking in this kind of nonsense one need not look further than the swift boat stories. The fact that this gets news coverage anywhere but on drudge is a disgrace to them all. What, Kerry is a wimp because he didn't get wounded enough?

The fact they are even trying to take Kerry on with his record of service show THEY HAVE NOTHING against him and are grossly miscalculating how to beat him in this race. This is a primary reason why I believe Bush is going to lose. The people he has organizing what to attack Kerry on are not doing a good job and are just acting too juvenile to win over enough adults who vote.

[newyawker99]

28. Hi Charles19!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[rabbit2484]

24. I will never believe another poll

According to two different polls in California, Shrub gained 10% in one week. Although I still enjoy the site.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/aug/aug20.html

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. I'm more than a little suspicious of this "poll". CNN/Gallup recently....

...released poll numbers that showed Kerry with a substantial lead among registered voters. This polling group has been consistently slanted 4-5 points in support of FratBoy, while all of the other polls have been showing Kerry with solid leads.

And now this CBS poll gets rolled out. The timing is suspect at the very least.

[lostnfound]

8. Nationwide polls mean little. Where is the electoral college?

Something like 327 Kerry to 211 Bush.

What might matter are the dirty tricks Rove will be pulling in October. Is there some way to tie him up with Plame investigation for 4 weeks?

And Nader votes in Texas or Massachusetts don't matter.

[Teaser]

9. Pointless Panic

These polls are going to fluctuate people. It's the nature of
statistics. It means nothing.

[mhollis]

10. Media Bias Alert

"Persuadable voters have a negative view of Bush, but they still don’t know much about John Kerry."

Well, well, well.

Perhaps it's because the media -- leastwise the major outlets -- are not regularly and routinely talking about Kerry's plans, the issues in this election and the differences between him and Shrub.

Our coverage* remains nothing short of poor, with a tendency to show the candidate in terms of the image he tries to project. Our coverage of Shrub, for example, at the VFW convention was complete: We had hot and cold running cameras, the audio mix had good ambient and so on. Kerry's appearance featured only the head-on camera, there was no ambient in the mix.

And our story was about the Veterans who turned their backs on Kerry, as well as the "Swift Boaters for truth" advertisements instead of the content of his speech. We aired his comment about Shrub's intent to pull our military out of friendly countries but we aired none of his actual proposals for our military nor his plans to support our veterans.

Frankly, I don't understand why the VFW appeared to think so highly of Shrub: He has cut back on funds to VA hospitals and reduced benefits overall. Shrub is not a member of the VFW and Kerry is a "lifetime" member by virtue of the fact that he served in a foreign war (and with distinction).

*Please note, when I complain about "our" coverage, I am speaking about what I am involved in putting on the air. I work for a national network.

[progressivebydesign]

17. I worked in an affiliate station of a major network.... I agree with you.

The news was fed to us from New York. Pre-packaged, and pretty worthless. Locally, the news director decided what angle to take... and told the reporters to get a story based upon that angle. Not like they were presented with a situation and asked to get the facts. No, it was here's the situation, here's my take on it, go out and find people to back up what our stations' opinion is of the story. The same for the national networks, no doubt.

I'd like to blame it all on the network news.. but the truth is, and I've heard this from network execs, that Americans find things like the Kyoto Treaty boring, speech content boring, economics boring, etc., and the news exists SOLELY to sell advertising. Nothing more.

[WI_DEM]

11. This is why Kerry is finally responding to the attacks on his military

record because the attacks have worked and he ignored them too long.

[Kierkegaard]

13. Moreover

Kerry went on the offensive to show he has some backbone, and to grab some headlines that will enable him to squeeze in a word or two about the real issues facing America. He wasn't getting much face time by ignoring the slander blizzard coming from the Reichwing freak show.

[Tomee450]

14. I agree.

Kerry should have fought back when the story first broke. Instead he waits weeks to do so. The swiftboat story has had an effect, imo. There are people here who believes the Kerry people are waging a good campaign. I am not so sure. They should remember that the right wing will wage vicious attacks against its opponents. How can anyone forget what happened to President Clinton. Whenever an attack is made, the Kerry people should be ready to respond immediately. John Kerry waited too long to speak forcefully on this issue.

[lancdem]

21. I think he didn't want to respond directly earlier

because he didn't want to elevate the issue. It was a tough call.

[sampsonblk]

27. Yeah, but better late than never

I think he waited far too long. But he has finally come out swinging. In the words of Howard Dean, "Yeaaaahh!"

[donco6]

12. When "Making the right decisions in Iraq"

means "blasting the hell out of people in Iraq", I can see why Bush is leading in that statistic.

[jeanmarc]

15. September is when the fight begins

At about September 30th, I think we'll have a very good idea of who the next President is. Kerry's been saving his money to spend AFTER the equally untelevised Republicon Convention.

September is going to be a blitzkrieg assault on the poor Bush record. No one is going to want the status quo.

[JusticeForAll]

16. You really think the Repub convention is going to be equally untelevised?

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I admit I'm expecting more coverage of theirs than the Democrats got...You can't turn on a CNN affiliate without seeing advertisements for the GOP - those ads started immediately after the Dem Convention ended!

They are hyping the convention for much more than its worth...

[Zynx]

19. Dumbass corporate pig media

That is a statistically insignificant shift.

[ElementaryPenguin]

22. BULLSHIT!! Bushler is f*cking toast! Everyone hates the lying piece of

Maggot dung!! Fascist media merely making it look close so that BushCo can Diebold the shit out of us!!

:puke:

[oscar111]

23. 6 Points lead for Kerry, if independents break for the contender

as they usually do.

9 are undecided, in non-nader race... so we get 6, bush 3.. so we wind up with a six point lead all in all.

not bad.

[reprobate]

25. Doesn't matter. ONLY the electoral college matters. that's the system

[Tight_rope]

29. Fuck these facsit Bush ass kissing corporate pigs...All their polls lie.