In a number of electoral projections, Kerry has increased his electoral leads. In the battle ground states, Kerry is ahead in all but tow in ZOgby's latest, With Bush haivng only Ohio and West Virginia.
Todays Electoral Vote. Com has:
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 307 Bush 211
http://www.electoral-vote.com/Rasmussen has an actual count of the current electoral votes that they have for each candidate holding right now:
Election 2004
Electoral College
Bush 183
Kerry 203
Toss-Up 152
RasmussenReports.com
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htmElection Projection:
Electoral Votes: Bush 227, Kerry 311
Popular Vote: Bush 47.4%, Kerry 50.7%
http://www.electionprojection.com/Robert Silvey's Report, has Kerry lower than others, but still winnning by a comfortable margin.
Electoral College Update 23
Kerry 296, Bush 242 electoral votes. The latest projection, based on averages of all recent state-by-state polls, shows Nevada now in the Bush column.
The alternate calculation of swing states yields the same result. Among the 19 swing states in 2000, Florida, New Hampshire, and West Virginia are on track to change parties, moving from Bush to Kerry. Bush has not moved ahead in any state.
http://www.robertsilvey.com/notes/2004_electoral_college_updates/index.htmlKerry has taken a small hit in a few of these polls as a result of the Swift Boat Controversy, but that has started turining around again as numerous reports of the facts that the Swift Boat Veterans have no documentation to back up their claims, and the very inconsistant stories told by their front men, Like Mr Thurlow, who has gone from stating he had no idea he had ever won a Bronze Star, to stating to that he would never had accepted it if he knew that he had won it under the claims made that it was presented with, to , once being told that he had to know, as the full information as to the conditions of being under massive enemy fire were printed on the citation that came with the medal, afterwhich he calims he lost the citation 20 or 25 years ago.
Also now that a number of people who the Swift Boat Veterans used in theri commercials are coming out and making it known that their pictures were being used without their permissions, and they were being quoted as saying things they never said, and that some are not only not neutral about it, but actually support Kerry, to the elected official in Oregon who Oregon Veterans are demanding be kciked out of office for lying in the Swift Boat Commercial (claimed he was with Kerry, but the fact is that he heard the stories from other members of Swift Boat Veterans and just lied for the commercial), and finally, the media investigations that have almost completely dismissed the possibility of most of the tales being told by the Swift Boat Veterans as being true. The highest level officer involved with this group has refused to talk to the press, as they have found all his stories conflict with all of his past statements up all the way until 1996, when he still supported and confirmed Kerry's version.
Within a few weeks, this all may turn adverse against Bush. Recent polls indicate that Kerry has gotten a rather large boost among independents since the Swift Boat Commercials, and that the recent tightening up of polls in Bush's polling data reflects a tightening up of Bush's base, and that the increase in the polls comes almomst completely from REpublicans who were sitting on the sidelines as "undecideds, from the percentages of Republicans who had not made up their minds ,and some who were supporting Kerry (a very small percentage of both Democrats and Republicans have fit the crossover voter pattern, though this percentage is the smallest that there has been in decades, usually about 10 percent of Republicans crossed over to vote Dem, and 8 percent Dems crossed over to vote Republican, but this has shrunk to about half that during this campaign)
Last week, DC's Political Report had Kerry trailing Bush by ONE electoral vote, after months of Kerry being very far ahead of Bush in his polls, due to the Swift Boat confusion. THis was partially a result of DC's report changing methodology of reports, and awarding the Electoral votes only if the candidates poll ahead in states beyond the margin of errors in those polls.
In DC's current weekly analysis, updated today:
THe latest results have Kerry now with 15 more electoral voted than Bush with 199 EV, 142 EV in polls beyond MoE in 11 States, 57 lectoral Votes in 7 states within polling MoE.
Bush has 184 EV with 151 in 16 states outside of MoE. 33 EV in 3 states within MoE.
In states too close to tell, Kerry is ahead in five states for 86 Electoral Votes. Bush ahead in 3 states for 42 Electoral Votes.
One State is tied for 9 Electoral Votes (Colorado???????????????)
Five states ave nor polls for 17 EV, whihc DC has divided up as 2 states for Kerry for 6 Electoral Votes, 3 for Bush, for 11 Electoral Votes.
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htmWhile I have followed DC for a while, I have found at times the polls suddnely got a bit askewed, and for a while they just stayed un-updated for unknown reasons.
DC's Placing California in a too close to tell status while for most polls over the last two months, Kerry's lead in California has been in double digits, and only a recent polls has shown Kerry and Bush withn 3 points of each other in that state a little puzzling.
In any case, this projection, all things staying the same, give Kerry a win by a good number of electoral votes.
So far, while the Swift Boat tales have had an effect, they seem to be falling away, as the major media has started shedding a lot of light on the questionable nature of "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth", regarding its funding, the inconsistant stories of its fruont men, the need for members of Bush;s campaign to quit because of their relations with the group, the fact that several of the peopole who were quoted are pissecd as hell at having their names used as supporting the group against Kerry when they are either neutral or support Kerry, among other news about the group. I would guess that before the election, this will either have no effect on Kerry among swing voters, or have an adverse effect on Bush, but i think the former is most likely.
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