CNN Breaking Peace deal agreed at Najaf between Al Sadr and Sistani

[seventhson]

No Link - it is on TV right now

[seventhson]

1. Joint press conference is coming

shortly according to cnn

[stellanoir]

5. people I highly respect have consistantly

extoled the moderate virtues of Al Sistani. Bremer should have been confering with him from the get go IMHO. Al Sadr never would have had a stitch of credibility had we not shut down his paper which nobody read. Then the merciless killings of the contractors occurred in Falluja and all hell broke loose.

We rendered droves of Iraqi's unemployed and mistrusted them to do simple jobs, hiring foreign contractors at exhorbitant rates instead. Why would a bunch of young bored unemployed guys not gravitate towards Al Sadr who consistantly denounced the occupation?

I truly hope the peace holds but remember, Al Sistani is Iranian. Both he and Al Sadr are Shia, as is Iran. *'s '03 SOTU speech maligned the "axis of evil" and now 2/3 rds of them have gone nuclear and the other is a cesspool of anti-American sentiment.

What to do, what to do, what to do. . .?

Pay attention to this one.

[chiburb]

24. Nice post, thanks. n/t

[freemarketer]

47. This is a disaster. Sistani is capitulating to Allawi and Bush three days

before the Republican convention. Me, I don't know that Kerry can now win the thing because of too much foot shooting. But as far as the Iraqis, Sadr was their last hope. If he folds, Sistani will lead them right into the slavery of being an American protectorate. Bad, bad news, IMO.

[NNN0LHI]

60. Are you on drugs?

Almost a thousand Americans killed, thousands more severely wounded, and 200 billion of our tax dollars spent, only to have an Iranian born ayatollah now calling the shots in Iraq? What the fuck man? You must be joshing? Welcome to DU too.

Don

[leftchick]

2. seems to me the "peace deal" is between the Shiia and

the US occupiers. Who by the way have not stopped firing on al_Sadr's people today. Check out bemildred's thread....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x778703

[Dhalgren]

4. Yeah, I don't think that there was any real (public)

schism between Sadr and Sistani, at all. Sadr has always spoken (publicly) with great reverence toward Sistani.

[Ducks In A Row]

3. if bush has a brains

they'll support this and say it's an example of Iraq handling it's own affairs.

bet they don't tho.

[RummyTheDummy]

6. BushCo. will support it

It's a massive PR coup for them. Huge.

[jayfish]

14. * Has Never Let Common Sense...

get in the way of his quest for power. I think that the hard-right base will see this as a defeat. They were nearly foaming at the bit to level the shrine and city. They will not be happy that Sadr gets to escape with his life again.

Jay

[freemarketer]

50. Absolutely....................

[madrchsod]

7. larry of arbia-

when the english general and arab king were talking about larry-young men fight- old men counsel..same in iraq-sistani used al sadar to push the us to this stage of the war.my enemy is your enemy....

[barbaraann]

8. I think it was timed for the beginning of the RNC convention.

n/t

[IndianaGreen]

9. I hope and pray this brings an end to the violence

I will never again criticize Israel for what it did in Jenin and Ramallah. Compared to the vast destruction and loss of life that the US has brought to Nafaj, Fallujah, etc., the Israelis were cautious and precise in their use of force. At the rate the US was going, we were about to surpass Saddam in the slaughter of Shias.

What is the thug Allawi's next move?

[babylon_system]

11. I will never criticize Hitler after I saw what Stalin did

What kind of BS statement is that?

[Sideways]

23. cautious and precise ......WTF?

Sorry Indy you are out of your mind here. Cautious and precise? There is slaughter going on. In both places. The shit in Iraq in no way mitigates the Israeli slaughter. YMMV but I see arrogance and death in both circumstances.

[seventhson]

30. The thing is - there is an element of hypocrisy in holding Israel

to a higher standard of morality than the US.

Green is somewhat correct when he says by degrees what the US wrought here is MUCH worse than many instances in Israel. In sheer numbers we have killed many more in a few months than Israel has in YEARS.

But, on the other hand, Israel is a pawn of the right wing in the United States (so are Arafat and his terorists). The murders of innocents there in Israel/Palestine is of the same kind (on both sides)as the murders in Najaf. Only the degree of death is more substantial.

So our criticism MUST go to the policies of the US, Israel, Arab militant fundies, and ANYONE who engages in terror, state sponsored or so-called martyrs brigades. They ALL serve corporate America.

[The Magistrate]

38. Well Said, My Hoosier Friend

U.S. operations in Falluja and Najaf have been very sloppy. It seems that there remains a certain "body count" mentality among those directing operations, and an assumption that whatever is hit certainly was an enemy.

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[Darranar]

52. Let's hope so...

this has gone on long enough.

[Halliburton]

10. Apparently Sadr still keeps his militia

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040826/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq&cid=540&ncid=1480

<snip>
"The plan called for Najaf and Kufa to be declared weapons-free cities, for all foreign forces to withdraw from Najaf and leave security to the police, and for the government to compensate those harmed by the fighting."
<snip>

[Larkspur]

12. Which government is going to make reparations?

Does Allawi have money to make reparations?

[seventhson]

15. The Money is hidden under Cheney's bed

but he won't give it up so the slaughter will continue.

[TheWraith]

13. This is a non-event.

The "peace deal" is essentially that all the foreign and Mahdi forces pull out of Kufa and Najaf. For one thing, it's highly unlikely that the U.S. will agree to that given that Sadr gets to keep his army. For another, the U.S. won't like having terms dictated to it, which is what this amounts to, unless Sistani has official standing. I doubt this is significantly going to change anything, except to ring the peace bell one more time before resuming the war.

[seventhson]

16. This could be a turning point, however.

I may be too optimistic - but I think this is a coup on Sistani's part.

If Bush blows this today or tomorrow it will ceretainly cost him the election.

If Bush is smart he will back off (but we know he is NOT smart so you may be right...)

[Dhalgren]

17. You're right about Sistani,

he has the power, now. If he can call up 20,000 unarmed people on short notice to confront US tanks, he had better be listened to. Yeah, a turning point, one way or the other...

[Vladimir]

18. Plus he has reasserted his authority

over Sadr too. I am awaiting further developments with interest, specifically how the point about reparations will play...

[Disturbed]

19. Cheney will order Dumbass...

to do what Cheney thinks is best for the Neo Fascists. What will that be?

[daleo]

26. It establishes a de facto Sadr/Sistani alliance

It makes clear that their goals and demands are the same, at least for the time being. That can't be a positive development for the U.S. occupation and the Allawi regime that they installed.

[theboss]

46. Delete

Wrong place.

[Beetwasher]

20. Am I The Only One Who Thinks This Is Sistani Bringing Reinforcements?

Seems to me they just joined forces...

[Dhalgren]

22. I think you are right.

The posters that the crowds were carrying were of Sistani AND Sadr. These "reinforcements" were welcomed by the Mehdi Army. This, I think, is an Iraqi victory. Allawi and the US were trying to get to Sadr before Sistani got there. Now, whatever happens, the US has lost.

[seventhson]

28. I would say that the US won, but Bush/Cheney and their fascists lost

WE are winners in this scenario: You and me. Us.

Bush and his assholes are the losers here (I hope), altho they will try to twist it into their victory propaganda-wise.

They will call it "Iraqi Democracy at work" and you know what? Bush will be right. But the fact is that Democracy was at work for the PEOPLE of Iraq and NOT for the Allawi puppets and our military.

Democracy is working there --- but Bush is NOT deserving of ANY credit for it. Sadr and Sistani srvived Bush's Saddam. They will survive Bush politically too, I'd bet.

[Dhalgren]

51. You are right, of course.

If the US military can be made to withdraw, then it is a victory for "people" everywhere. Anytime warmongers and their killing machine can be forced to step back, shut down, it is a victory for human beings. I just hope that there are enough humans at the right places in the US machinery to not let a renewal of the slaughter begin. At least I hope...

[theboss]

45. Doesn't seem to be Sistani's style

He has far more to gain by playing both sides against the middle at this point.

[LeftHander]

21. "TIme for an Air Stirke...." says Bush...

people can't have peace....unless it's Amurikan peace...

[reprobate]

25. Peace only between Sistani and Al Sadr.

Sadr keeps his army. He now has thousands of reinforcements brought by Sistani. So his army moves out and attacks elsewhere.

The anger of the iraqi people at the US still exists, moreso after we killed thousands in the latest siege.

Golly gee, I just thought of an answer to the killing in iraq.

Get out troops out of iraq now!

[NoBorders]

27. This has nothing to do with US foreign policy

this is internal politicking in Iraq; if bush tries to take any credit for this deal having any positive outcome, he should be severely criticized.

[htuttle]

29. According to BBC, the 'Iraqi Government' has accepted the proposal

Stated by Al Sistani aide (and BBC text) live on BBC World News (TV) now. No separate link yet.

Mention in this link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3603196.stm

Here are the major points of the agreement:

• Moqtada Sadr will hand responsibility for the Imam Ali shrine to Ayatollah Sistani
  
• Mehdi Army will lay down their weapons and leave the shrine
  
• Visitors will be allowed into shrine complex, and fighters will leave with them
  
• Foreign forces will leave Najaf; Iraqi police will take control of security
  
• Iraqi government will repair buildings destroyed by shelling
  

[seventhson]

31. This is GREAT news - if it holds

it looks like it might work.

[daleo]

32. I can't tell if "foreign forces" includes U.S. forces in the article

Common sense says yes, but they have managed to twist the phrase in the mainstream media, so it is hard to say.

[htuttle]

33. According to how CBS just covered the deal

Yes, the US has to get out of Najaf.

CBS made it pretty clear that Sistani holds all the cards here. US forces were ultimately ordered to stand down, and 'facilitate' Sistani's return to the city, according to CBS news.

[daleo]

36. Bush won't like that going into his convention

That is remarkable. I suppose they will spin it as a great victory for Bush, the wise negotiator, but it sounds like U.S. forces had to back down.

[Dhalgren]

65. Yeah, and they had to back down to an Iranian!

Man that has got to stick in their craw. It's bad enough having to take orders from a puppet Iraqi dictator like Allawi, but to be given your walking papers from an Iranian? Man, Bush has "wimp" written all over him...

[minkyboodle]

34. Those who still can should watch Newshour on PBS

It is coming on here in Washington DC at 7pm on WETA. Juan Cole and another Mideast expert who's name I have forgotten have a lengthy discussion about today's developments. I found it to be very interesting and informative.

[al bupp]

43. Care to Give Us a Synopsis?

I don't have a TV, but I'm curious what they said. Any chance you could provide a bullet list of the points made?

Cheers

[minkyboodle]

56. Heres the online transcript

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec04/najaf_8-26.html
thank god I don't have to summarize that from memory :)

[al bupp]

64. Thanks! /eom

[htuttle]

35. Iraqi Government, Al-Sadr OK Peace Deal (AP link)

By ABDUL HUSSEIN AL-OBEIDI, Associated Press Writer

NAJAF, Iraq - Iraq (news - web sites)'s top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, made a dramatic return to Najaf on Thursday and swiftly won agreement from a rebel cleric and the government to end three weeks of fighting between his militia and U.S.-Iraqi forces.

The renegade Muqtada al-Sadr accepted the proposal in a face-to-face meeting Thursday night with the 75-year-old al-Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric. Hours afterward, the government also agreed to the deal.

(snip)
But State Minister Qassim Dawoud, announcing the administration's acceptance, was optimistic.

U.S. and coalition forces will pull out of Najaf as soon as interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi orders them to leave, Dawoud said.

(snip)

There was no immediate word if the U.S. military would accept the provisions on the agreement calling on its forces to leave Najaf.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/ap/20040826/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq

[seventhson]

37. If I were a soldier on the ground there I 'd be happy as hell to get out

but the way we train our forces they are probably itchy to kill Al Sadr and his forces.

I HOPE that our military can spin this with the troops as a victory for democracy, thank the troops for their sacrifices AND SEND THEM THE FUCK HOME TO THEIR FAMILIES NOW!!!!

It is obvious we are no longer needed in the cities.

[Vladimir]

39. I hope to hell that this holds

but one has to wonder - the feelings that gave rise to this in the first place will not go away until that cock Allawi is removed from power. It is hard to be optimistic these days...

[The Magistrate]

40. As This Story Has Developed, Sir

These events can only be considered a defeat for the U.S. occupation, and its puppet government.

The prestige of the Mahdi Army militia will have increased tremendously among the Shi'ites of Iraq. They will be able to present themselves as having saved the shrine and stood off the U. S. forces, without too much dishonesty. They will remain an organized force, for any conditional disarmament is only temporary in the situation of a country awash in weaponry.

Ayatollah al'Sistani has demonstrated again that he is the real power in the south of Iraq. He has been playing a difficult game with great skill for many months past. Its outlines are these. He is well aware that any real democracy in Iraq will inevitably result in Shia control of the government, and that his position and prestige among the Shi'ites will suffice to give him effective direction of any such a government. It has therefore been his best course to appear to take with utmost seriousness the many proclaimations the intent of the occupation is to bring democracy to Iraq: this checkmates any movement directly against him by the occupying power, and forces them to regard him as a force for order. At the same time, the occupation is tremendously unpopular among the Shi'ites who follow him, which gives room for young Mr. al'Sadr to gain a substantial following by actively resisting it. Mr. al'Sadr is bothresisting the occupation, and making a pitch to supplant Ay. al'Sistani as the effective leader of the Shia, wagering that militant prestige may trump spiritual prestige in an atmosphere of armed crisis. Ay. al'Sistani cannot afford to move openly against him, because such a move would reveal the real limits of his power. As things stand now, the belief of all parties is that everyone would obey the old man, and an order to do something not too popular would reveal a sizeable proportion of the people would not obey him, but flock to his rival. By coming here to the rescue of Mr. al'Sadr, Ay. al'Sistani demonstrates his power, both in Iraq as a whole, and over Mr. al'Sadr and his followers in particular, and does so in a way that forces no one to choose between the two figures. He even leaves Mr. al'Sadr in position as an armed force, making himself even more attractive and necessary to the invaders, and enabling him to continue to press and wait for the promised democracy while showing that at a word from him, millions might rise in rage and arms against the occupying power and its puppet show.

All in all, it is a splendid illustration of how the game is played by serious professionals....

"The utterance of a threat is always more effective than its execution."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!

[bemildred]

41. I think Ms Green has the right question.

What is that thug Allawi (and the occupation) going to do now?

I am not quite convinced this is over, but what we appear to have
is a three week festival of carnage in which NONE of the intended
goals of of the occupation forces were accomplished, while ALL of
the negative consequences of the "offensive" (what a good name for
such an enterprise, eh? "offensive") from the occupation point of
view are come fully to pass.

If the "agreement" goes forward we have once again the Faloojah
result, the occupation forces leave, the town remains in Iraqi
hands, "policed" by Iraqis. Meanwhile, as you point out, the Ayat
has once again demonstrated his power in the most unambiguous way.
"What is al Sistani going to do next?" is a good question, too, as it
has been since the occupation began. And, of course, al Sadr walks
away once again.

[savistocate]

55. The PBS Newshour

as referred to above contributed very significantly. The "force of circumstance" with Sistani requiring heart surgery--and just returning from London. Going to Najaf against med advice.
Important that from the first Sadr's communication to Sistani was that he would turn over holy city only to Sistani.

Really gratifying to hear was both Juan Cole and the second Profsr believe Allawi could not win election to head of govt.
Do hope they're instinct background lead them to correct
speculation. Trouble is he is "positioning himself" and obviously will (damn) oversee The Election.

It's likely Newshour will return these two academics in the days
ahead. Their negative designation Muqtada Sadr as "spoiler"
"resistor", which may have more positive impact, was a one-sided view though. It was US Marines taking over that broke cease fire.

[bemildred]

62. A good point.

Muqtada has been trying to turn the shrine over to the religious
authority (Sistani) from the beginning, and they have been wrangling
over the terms. I think one can make a good argument that Sistani's
hand has been forced, and that al Sadr has won his game of chicken
with Sistani and the "government".

[Vladimir]

42. I am almost certainly fantasising but

is it so implausible that Sistani and Al Sadr have been in total kahoots from the very beginning? Because if so, all this makes perfect sense - Sistani using Al Sadr to draw the occupation into a trap from which they can only exit with their grip on power further weakened, while the venerable old Ayatollah gets to act the peacemaker and remains untouchable as his support only grows.

[al bupp]

49. Not so Implausible, I'd Say

Whether or not it's true probably depends on the nature of the relationship between the two men. However, in practice it amounts to a classic good-cop/bad-cop situation. Al Sistani takes the high road and appears to be the consummate peace-maker, while Al Sadr acts the cudgel against the occupiers.

I agree this has be seen as a great victory for the Shia side of the political spectrum, at the expense of the Allawi puppet regime.

Thanks for your insights, Mr. Magistrate.

[mike_c]

44. excellent analysis, sir....

I believe you are right. Ay. al'Sistani has just engineered an amazing coup. Allawi must be watching his hopes for a long and profitable career pass before his eyes.

The U.S. response remains to be seen. Remember that the peace accord in Falluja did not hold-- U.S. airstrikes against civilian targets in Falluja resumed after a "cooling off period" during which the media stopped paying attention.

[daleo]

53. That seems like a perceptive analysis of the internal dynamics, Magistrate

Given our handicaps of distance and language, that certainly seems to be a likely description of the interplay between the two Shia leaders. The clear loser looks to be Bush, who once more played brinksmanship and stepped back. This can be the sign of a great statesman (JFK and the Cuban missile crisis perhaps), but only if the cause is just and the national interests at stake are vital. Neither is the case in this Bush fiasco in Iraq.

[minkyboodle]

57. excellent points

Honestly I'm a bit in awe of the way that Sistani has played his hand in Iraq so far. 2 weeks ago I thought he might be on his deathbed and today he has probably become the most powerful man in all of Iraq, all without firing a shot directly.

[aneerkoinos]

58. Negroponte is a mighty foe

But this time he was brilliantly outfoxed. Whether knowingly or not, Sistani and Sadr did once again a succesfull good cop bad cop routine on the imperialists and deliverd a major blow on their aspirations of holding control of Iraq (by no elections or fixed elections). It is important to note the Sistani's demand of census as one of the five main points in the settlement.

Also noteworthy is that Sistani didn't (publicly, at least) exactly broker or negotiate anything. He just told them, and they had no other possibility than to obey. And thus made perfectly clear to Negroponte and Allawi that they continue to rule Baghdad by mercy of Sistani.

So Sistani is not going to give up his bad cop, he really can't but would not even if he could, having the dog of war in leash at least to some extent is the mightiest weapon, as you say.

Of course Negroponte will keep on trying to hinder or corrupt democracy in Iraq, which would send the occupier away, and the war is far from over. But the good guys sure as hell have this battle under their belt.

Question: what future do you predict for the Allawi appointed Governor and Police Chief of Najaf, whose thugs massacred the unarmed demostrators?

[leftchick]

59. my best answer to your question....

Question: what future do you predict for the Allawi appointed Governor and Police Chief of Najaf, whose thugs massacred the unarmed demostrators?

.... quietly assasinated.....one by one....

[Dhalgren]

66. Well constructed analysis.

"All in all, it is a splendid illustration of how the game is played by serious professionals...." - Couldn't agree more. It is often startling to see something so complex, handled so well.

Sistani is in the drivers seat and I think the US should ask to be let off at the next light.

[theboss]

48. Winners and Losers

Biggest Loser: Allaywi (or however his named is spelled; it's late). He just been revealed to be the 4th (at best) most powerful entity in the US. Right now, it goes Sistani, US Military, and Sadr.

Biggest Winner: Sistani. It's his show now. He basically proved that Sadr answers to him and that nothing is going to get done without his approval at this point. If he wanted to, he could probably call for something similar to the Iranian Revolution in Iran. Of course, Iran didn't have 130,000 US Soldiers in it. A Revolution would be a bloodbath and Sistani knows it.

Second Biggest Winner: Iran. Things are inching along nicely for Iraq to become if not a puppet state, then at least a client state.

Tie: Sadr. This worked out better than can be expected. First of all, he will probably live and remain free. That was certainly no guarantee a week ago. And even if he needed Sistani to save him (proving he is not the top dog), he now has a name and a large group of followers. If he plays the game for the long haul, he has a future. Of course, he could still get iced tomorrow.

Loser: US. Avoided a popular uprising and bloodbath. Still obstensibly in control. But it's clear now where the hearts and minds of the people are and it's not with the Governing Council.

[Tight_rope]

54. I give it a week...After RNC it will be back to fighting again...n/t

[Disturbed]

61. City by city

It seems that the Iraqis are claiming their country city by city. The only stronghold the Neo Fascist and it's puppet has is in Baghdad and soon that will be only in the green zone. Notice that the al Q factions have been fairly dormant lately? Killing Iraqs bystanders is a huge negative now and al Sadr an al Sistani are probably sending the word out to the groups of al Sagawi to cool it. The insurgency is gaining ground and soon the puppets will start being killed. I predict the top puppets will fly out in the dead of nignt soon. The problem with Iraqi unity will be the Kurds and the Sunnis. al Sistani needs to reach out to them and deal a piece of the country to them.

[0007]

63. Al Sadr and Sistani