Columbus Dispatch: Bush Kerry Race in Ohio a Dead Heat (Bush drops 3%)

[farmbo]

http://www.dispatch.com/default.php

President enters GOP convention with his slim July lead gone, Dispatch Poll shows
The race that couldn’t get much closer just did. As Republicans head to their national convention this week, President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are deadlocked at 46 percentage points in Ohio, a new Dispatch Poll shows.
<snip>

Bush's 3% lead from the July Dispatch poll has evaporated!

(Nader's still getting 2%, but it's uncertain whether he'll be on the November ballot, owing to petition irregularities)

This is good news. The Dispatch poll is a very high sample: 3,176 Ohio voters. It's done by mail, so it probably dates back a week and a half, when the Swiftboat Liars were ruling the talk show roost.
Lately its been a very accurate poll.

Ohio is trending Kerry.

[BeatleBoot]

1. Must be why Bush was there yesterday....

This is fantastic news!!!

[roseBudd]

3. Ohio people!

Get out on the streets and talk to OUR base.

College students, gays, African Americans, college educated urban dwellers.

Don't waste any time on white flight suburbanites.

Register and motivate. Take off Nov. 2 to drive poor people to the polls.

Rosebud in Cincinnati (43% black and more populous than the suburbs.)

[farmbo]

8. Non-Ohio people...come out here and help!

If you're in a non-battle ground state, e.g. Indiania or New York, why not come to Ohio for some beautiful weekends in September and October.

We'll put you up and even supply the beer!

Just contact the folks in the DU Campaign Underground Ohio links.

[roseBudd]

22. IN & KY just come to a concert in OH and

contact, motivate, and register our base, the secular, left leaning, music loving youth. Peer to peer works the best.

SE Indiana come to Bogarts in Cincinnati.

Rosebud

[Cha]

9. That and the smear boat ad nauseam!

Love ya Ohio!

[non sociopath skin]

2. This is a relief. From what I've heard...

... about what the Shrubbery has done to Ohio, shouldn't Kerry be WAY ahead though?

The Skin

[Eurobabe]

4. one more kerry ohio vote

i move there in September.

[BeatleBoot]

5. Make sure you are registered to vote in time

In some states you have to be registered 60 days prior to Nov 2nd.

Not sure about Ohio.

[farmbo]

10. Ohio requires registration at least 30 days out...

Good point BeatleBoot!!

[roseBudd]

23. October 2 is the deadline for postmark

or receiving in Ohio. Free ballots from Board of Election, at 8th & Broadway, Cincinnati, OH.

Rosebud

[Guaranteed]

6. I saw a poll yesterday in GD 2004 that had Kerry two points

UP.

[farmbo]

7. Yep...Kerry's up 2% in yesterday's Rasmussen Ohio Poll

August 28, 2004--Many pundits think Ohio may be the decisive state in the Election 2004 Presidential race. If the race remains close it is certainly one of the four biggest states in play for the Electoral College competition (along with Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania).
<snip>
Neither candidate, however, can feel confident about Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows the state remains too close to call--Senator Kerry earns 48% of the vote while President Bush attracts 46%.

A month ago, Kerry was up by a single point in the Rasmussen Reports poll, 46% to 45%. The month before, Bush held a four-point lead in the state, 46% to 42%.
<snip>

Smaller sample, but also good news.

[BootinUp]

11. But we're doomed, I saw it in another thread.

Dooooomed!

[warrior1]

12. Translation

It ain't really close and It's Kerry in a landslide.

[madmom]

13. fellow bucks...

with all the past voter irregularities,lets make sure Ohio is not the next Florida.Check your registration status,making sure the address is correct and all other data is up to par.
If voting with punch cards check the card before and after voting.Last gubenatorial election my hubbies first ballot would not punch for the Dem. candidates for Governor & Lt. Governor, these holes were not perforated and would not punch.

[BinkieGirl]

15. How do you check your registration status?

I live in Ohio and I actually wanted to do this. How do you check?

[madmom]

17. go to your local board of elections...

and ask to see your registration form.Tell all your Dem. friends, everyone should do this.

[Philostopher]

36. You may have to travel to your county seat.

I had to when I moved back to my home county, back in the late '80s. Often, in Ohio, that's where your local Board Of Elections office is -- in fact, just call the one in the county seat and find out what you have to do. The BOE there will have all the election records and can tell you what you have to do to confirm or transfer -- or register for the first time, if it's the first time. They're the ultimate resource, since they hold things like your permanent address and your polling precinct of record on file.

[calimary]

30. Would it help to vote absentee? That's what many of us out here

in California are talking about... At least there'd be a paper trail.

[fujiyama]

14. OH

is firmly a toss up, and Kerry's still holdin on pretty well. I'm impressed. We may see a temporary bounce in the next set of polls because of the convention but the overall trend is very encouraging!

[shrdlu]

16. What about this poll?

Is it self-selecting. That's a hell of a lot of participants...
Anyone know how this thing is done?

[farmbo]

18. Mail poll ...see below

Survey had responses from 3,176 Ohio voters
Sunday, August 29, 2004



The Dispatch obtained a computerized list of all registered voters in Ohio from the secretary of state. A Dispatch computer then randomly chose who would receive ballots.

<snip>

Ballots of different colors were mailed to various regions of the state to ensure that each area was represented in proportion to its actual voting strength. The areas, patterned on groupings of the state’s six major media markets, were: northeast (20 counties); central (20 counties); southwest (eight counties); northwest (12 counties); west (14 counties); and southeast (14 counties).

The standard margin of sampling error in a poll of the size conducted by The Dispatch is plus or minus 2 percentage points in 95 out of 100 cases. This means that if a poll is conducted 100 times, in 95 cases the result will not vary by more than 2 percentage points from the result that would be obtained if all registered voters in Ohio were polled and responded. Error margins are greater for poll subsamples.
<snip>

[Downtown Hound]

19. Bush 46%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2% (maybe)

Total: 94%.

So 6% undecided huh? Translation:

OHIO IS OURS!

[Maeve]

20. Beware of the polls, Buckeyes!

First, the media WANTS this to be a horserace right down to the wire. Don't coast, don't boast, just hang in there and keep plugging away.

But you know, when Yupper Arlington is swinging toward Kerry, we have a good shot at this!

[Bush was AWOL]

26. I can't believe the support for Kerry in Upper Arlington

UA has to be one of the wealthiest areas in the state of Ohio and by driving through UA one would think it was a Democratic stronghold. Weird...

[Nashyra]

27. My husbands kids grew up there

and I spend alot of time in Columbus area, mainly Dublin which is right next to Upper Arlington, and there is tremendous support for Kerry there.

[hippywife]

32. You guys are making me homesick!!

Now living in Oklahoma but last address was Dublin, OH!

And I don't need to tell ya how OK is going to go in November! :puke:

[yardwork]

38. That's excellent news - Arlington is affluent and white

I hear that people in rural parts of Ohio are mad at Bush too. I think that the polls may be underestimating the number of previously unregistered voters who now say they will register and vote for Kerry.

The key is to get them registered and at the polls!

We know that the religious right is registering their friends and neighbors. We need to register those who support Kerry.

Let me know how I can help. I'm a native Ohioan but I live in NC now.

[LisaL]

34. Yep

There is a sign Upper Arlington for Kerry.
They advertise their website
www.uaforkerry.com

[Bush was AWOL]

21. Is the dispatch only polling people in the Central Ohio area?

I guess I'll have to buy one today and find out.

Anyway, I live in Columbus, which is becoming more liberal yearly, and I see a lot more support for Kerry than I do for Bush. Atleast 2 to 1 in yard signs, and about a tie in bumper stickers.

[roseBudd]

24. Ohio State

Contact, motivate and register hip, liberal, and artsy Ohio State students by hitting the campus with volunteers. Recruit students to do the same.

Rosebud

[Bullshot]

25. If they do, that's even better news for Kerry.

Columbus and its suburbs are largely Republican, as witnessed by their Congressmen. If the Columbus area is trending toward Kerry, then Kerry stands a better chance of carrying the state, because NE Ohio, including Cleveland, Canton, Akron, and Youngstown and Toledo in NW Ohio will vote Democrat. You'll have most of the major cities in Ohio covered. Cincinnati always votes Republican. If Hitler and Stalin ran for office as Republicans, Cincinnati would vote for them.

[roseBudd]

28. Cincinnati is 43% black

Bush got only 52% of Hamilton County and that is because of white-flight suburbs that ring Cincinnati.

Cincinnati City Council is majority democratic, 4 blacks, 5 whites. Cincinnati's next mayor will probably be Mark Mallory.

The University of Cincinnati area is almost all Kerry territory.

There is a huge opportunity to pick up new first time voters in both African American and college student demographics.


Rosebud

[yardwork]

39. There's a problem in Youngstown.

The supposedly Democratic mayor has come out strongly in support of W.

[Bush was AWOL]

40. That's true...but

I listened to a Youngstown radio station on Thursday for over an hour and nearly every caller was furious over his support for Bush. They want him out now for supporting chimp.

[doc03]

29. I took the Dispatch poll about 10 days ago I live in eastern Ohio

in Belmont county about 8 miles from the Ohio river. This area is probably 70% Democrat, almost every elected official in the county is a Democrat.

[DarthDem]

31. Anyone Know What Dates?

What dates were included in the sampling period? I'm tired of looking at the Buckeye State's light red on electoralvote.com. :)

[farmbo]

33. August 18th thru 27th

eom

[young_at_heart]

35. Kerry should pound away on Ohio's lost jobs

Bush hasn't helped Ohio very much and Kerry needs to show this fact. The stupid "values" issue needs to be destroyed for the gimmick it really is.

[Spiffarino]

37. Ohioans are too smart...

...to vote for Bush this November. I can't remember it ever going against its own interests, and this year should be no exception. If the Shrub wins it's because he and Diebold stole it.