Pollsters refuse to write off Australian PM despite lag in polls

[Nambe]

SYDNEY (AFP)

Opinion polls give Australia's opposition Labor Party a big lead over Prime Minister John Howard's conservative government as campaigning begins for October 9 elections, but analysts say the real race is still too close to call.

Questions about what exactly Howard knew when he decided to back US President George W. Bush in the invasion of Iraq, and about a controversial 2001 rescue of Iraqi boatpeople, have cast doubt on his credibility.

But pollsters say he is still preferred over his younger rival Mark Latham on issues of national security, the economy and who would make the better prime minister. One recent poll has showed both were equally trusted by the electorate before an electon which both say is about trust. ..

Australia's is a conservative electorate which has only changed government four times in the last 50 years, said Sol Lebovic, lead of the leading pollster Newspoll. Howard's decision to focus on the booming economy could prove a shrewd one and the vote could go either way, he said. ..

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[aquart]

1. Rats. I was hoping he was a marshmallow at a campfire.

All nice and toasted.

[bluestateguy]

2. Educate me here. I'm not an expert on Ausie politics.

Does this mean that if Howard's party does not win a plurality that Howard is out?

If Labor wins does that mean the Australian troops are coming home from Iraq?

If Howard got thrown out on October 9, would that portend bad things to come for Baby Bush?

[anakie]

3. yes

his party the (not) ironically called Liberal Party has to win a majority of the seats in order for him as leader of the party to become Prime Minister.

If Labor wins Latham has promised to bring home Australian troops from Iraq by Xmas, but there is only half a dozen troops there anyway it is only symbolic.

If we get rid of Howard on Oct 9 you guys have to get rid of Bush on Nov 2nd??

[0007]

4. Get rid of that liar Howard and we'll rid the world of junior

and his thugs.

[stickdog]

5. Umm, how do they count their votes Down Under? (nt)

[Nambe]

6. Aussies Do It Right: E-Voting

http://www.wired.com/news/ebiz/0,1272,61045,00.html

[anakie]

9. interesting article

but Australia still uses the tried and tested method of paper ballots counted by people.

The territory in question that trialled the e voting is the ACT and only has a population of about half a million.

[takumi]

7. John Howard

I suppose he's still in the process of finishing his lesson on "How to steal an election in 30 days or Less" from the Chimp Family!

[daleo]

8. Misleading use of the term "conservative electorate", I think

A quick review of Australian P.M. since the war

John Joseph Curtin 1941 1945 Australian Labor
Francis Michael Forde 1945 1945 Australian Labor
Joseph Benedict Chifley 1945 1949 Australian Labor
Robert Gordon Menzies 1949 1966 Liberal
Harold Holt 1966 1967 Liberal
John McEwen 1967 1968 Country
John Grey Gorton 1968 1971 Liberal
William McMahon 1971 1972 Liberal
Edward Gough Whitlam 1972 1975 Australian Labor
John Malcolm Fraser 1975 1983 Liberal
Robert James Hawke 1983 1991 Australian Labor
Paul John Keating 1991 1996 Australian Labor
John Winston Howard 1996 - Liberal

Looks like they have changed parties 8 times in the last 63 years, and 6 governments have been Labour governments. I believe that would be 8 times in 16 elections (that the governing party has changed).