Post-referendum Venezuela draws heavy-oil interest

[Judi Lynn]

Post-referendum Venezuela draws heavy-oil interest


VENEZUELA: September 2, 2004


CARACAS, Venezuela - High crude oil prices and a more stable political outlook for Venezuela are spurring renewed interest by foreign investors in the country's vast reserves of extra-heavy oil, which is more expensive to refine, analysts say.


New ventures to develop Venezuela's Orinoco oil reserves being studied by ChevronTexaco CVX.N and Royal Dutch Shell RD.AS SHEL.L are more likely to go ahead now after an August 15 referendum that ratified the mandate of leftist President Hugo Chavez, they said.
"We've had a very clear-cut political message that Chavez is really here to stay. And if he's here to stay, and given the shortage of supply in world markets, then you either choose to work with this guy or get out," said Jan Dehn, analyst for Credit Suisse First Boston.

Political uncertainty and a nationalistic 2001 Hydrocarbons Law passed by Chavez have been hindering foreign investment in the world's No. 5 oil exporter in recent years, analysts said.

While oil companies say terms offered under the law are unattractive, recent high oil prices may push them to consider investments which might not otherwise be profitable in lower price environments.
(snip/...)

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/26891/story.htm

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It’s Time for Venezuela’s Private Media to Come Clean with the Opposition

Wednesday, Sep 01, 2004

By: Justin Delacour

In a Voice of America news program on Sunday, August 29th, four U.S.-based analysts debated the Venezuelan opposition's accusations that the government of President Hugo Chavez had committed fraud in the country's August 15 referendum. Despite the fact that three of the four analysts were openly anti-Chavez, only one--Thor Halvorssen of the libertarian-leaning Commonwealth Foundation--argued that there were indications of "something very, very awry” in the country’s referendum.

In contrast, Michael Shifter of the anti-Chavez Inter-American Dialogue pointed out that "credible groups like the Carter Center and the Organization of American States" did not find fraud in the referendum. Chris Sabatini, the director of Latin America programs at the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy, said, "I think, by and large, the results track with the polls that were done before the elections." Rachel Van Dongen, who reports for The Christian Science Monitor and The New Republic, reaffirmed Sabatini's point, stating, "the polls leading up to the referendum itself did show Chavez with a lead that he'd been widening over the months leading up to the referendum..."
(snip)

..... Most pre-referendum polls were commissioned by the opposition, not the government. In June, the Venezuelan polling firm Datos carried out a poll for the opposition which showed Chavez leading 51 to 39. Also that month, the U.S.-based Democratic Party polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQR) --working on behalf of the opposition-- released a poll showing Chavez ahead 49 to 44. In early August, the anti-Chavez pollster Alfredo Keller released a poll showing Chavez ahead 45 to 34. Even the oft-cited anti-Chavez polling firm Datanalisis --which has used deceiving methods to inflate the opposition's polling numbers-- appears to have found Chavez leading in July (Datanalisis didn't release the precise figures of its July poll, presumably because it did not want to further demoralize the opposition).

In fact, I don't know of one Venezuelan pollster whose last poll before the referendum didn't show Chavez in the lead.

Thus, when I recently read Halvorssen's erroneous assertion in his August 19 column in the Wall Street Journal that "dozens of independent polls predicted defeat for Col. Chávez," I was astonished. Does the concept of "fact-checking" mean anything to the Journal's editors? Halvorssen's assertion wasn't even consistent with the Journal's own reports; on August 11, the Journal ran a pie chart of Keller's poll, showing Chavez with a commanding lead just before the referendum.
(snip/...)

http://www.venezuelanalysis.com/articles.php?artno=1269

[Vladimir]

1. Ah, Voice of America radio...

4 panelists, 3 openly anti-Chavez. Fair and balanced, or what!

Incidentally I would remind everyone of this thread on the wonderful NED. Such things are best remembered...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1256111

Edited for stupid freudian-slip typo

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Vladimir, there's a world of difference between

Voice of America radio (which had the panellists), run by the American government, and Air America Radio (beloved of DU, carrying Al Franken, Randi Rhodes etc.) run as an independent liberal network.

[Vladimir]

3. You are very right

I am an idiot. :)

[Judi Lynn]

4. Ha ha. Thanks so much. This thread looks wonderful.

I'm delighted to get the chance to read it, as I missed it the first time. Some of the finest DU'ers participated, along with the dispatched Windansea.

Big help. Thanks.

[Vladimir]

5. A truly memorable quote

One for the scrapbook here people:

Exploration and production have suffered under Chavez, analysts said, because the populist ruler diverts too much money from the state-run oil company's budget to finance social programs for the poor.

http://www.canada.com/businesscentre/story.html?id=45BE9E98-2384-41F9-8E88-05DAD0C1F624

[Judi Lynn]

6. They always rise to the occassion, unfortunately.

And they call themselves human beings, possibly.

We KNOW what they believe is the appropriate environment for the 80+% living in poverty. Why on earth should the masses of Venezuela seek better conditions when they have all this?



You allow them free air to breath, and they just get grabby, don't they?

[bemildred]

7. Interesting developments since the election.

Venezuela Offers India Five Oil Fields

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/09/01/ap1526930.html

Venezuela May Ease Dollar Regulations, Charging Tax (Update1)

The central bank is considering implementing a
system that would levy a fine on investors who take
money out of the country less than one or two years
after investing it, Maza, one of the seven central
bank directors, said in a telephone interview. In
addition to the fine, all money taken out of
Venezuela, the world's fifth-biggest oil supplier,
would be charged a ``high'' tax rate, he said,
without saying what the rate might be.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is moving to
ease the restrictions after a surge in oil prices
boosted the flow of dollars into the South American
country, driving its foreign reserves up to $20.8
billion from $11 billion in January 2003.

``If there is more stability, economic growth and
confidence, the exchange control could be
softened,'' Maza, 82, said. ``This isn't planned for
this year, but maybe next year.''

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ap0RfUp_X3mQ&refer=latin_america

Iran, Venezuela keen on strengthening bilateral ties

http://www.tehrantimes.com/Description.asp?Da=9/1/2004&Cat=2&Num=005

Venezuela to Boost Natural Gas Production

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/08/30/ap1523493.html

Trinidad and Tobago Expects Gas Accord With Venezuela (Update2)

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Trinidad and Tobago
expects to reach agreement with Venezuela by
year's end on development of South America's
largest natural-gas field, clearing the way for billions
of dollars in investments.

Talks on such issues as how reserves from the
Deltana Platform field will be split will resume this
week, when a Venezuelan delegation visits the
island country, Trinidad and Tobago Energy
Minister Eric Williams said in an interview Friday in
Jamaica. The offshore field straddles waters of
Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago.

``Now that things have stabilized a little bit in
Venezuela, we hope to pick up speed again,'' said
Williams, speaking after an oil conference
concluded in Montego Bay. Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez on Aug. 15 won a vote to keep his
job, turning back a recall effort.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=akNt3mB.gPPA&refer=latin_america

Venezuela's Foreign Debt Rating Raised to B by S&P (Update1)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aZZbBzjHBBMY&refer=latin_america

Caribbean, Venezuela Agree on Energy Plan

Energy officials from the Caribbean and Venezuela
agreed Friday to create a new company that will
provide cheaper oil in the region as a way to counter
high crude prices.

Ending a two-day conference in the resort town of
Montego Bay, officials said recent spikes in world oil
prices threatened to provoke "social unrest" and
economic ruin for cash-strapped Caribbean countries.

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/08/27/ap1522235.html

Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela agree to establish FTA

BOGOTA, Aug. 27 (Xinhuanet) -- The Group of Three (G-3), made up
of Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela, signed Friday an agreement for the
establishment of a free trade area (FTA) that will come into being by 2011,
senior officials of the three countries said Friday.

The agreement was signed by the foreign ministers of three countries
during a two-day meeting that started Thursday.

The G-3 talks established import quotas for the industries of Colombia
and Venezuela to have a "security cushion," said Mexican Foreign Minister
Luis Derbez.

He said Mexico would export fewer vehicles to Colombia because it does
not want to hurt the automobile sector of Colombia and Venezuela.

http://news3.xinhuanet.com:80/english/2004-08/28/content_1906218.htm

[Matilda]

8. This makes wonderful reading.

I hope more Latin American countries may be inspired to follow the
Chavez example.