Bush Gets Bigger Convention Bounce Than Kerry

[struggle4progress]

(CPOD) Sept. 3, 2004 – George W. Bush and Dick Cheney are leading the 2004 United States presidential race, according to a poll by Zogby America. 46 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbents, while 44 per cent would support the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards.

In early July, after Kerry chose Edwards as his running mate, the Democrats held a two per cent lead over the Republicans. In a head-to-head survey conducted during the Democratic National Convention in late July, voting intention for the challengers remained stable at 48 per cent.

The latest poll, carried out during this week’s Republican National Convention, shows a three per cent increase for the Bush/Cheney ticket, and a four per cent drop for the Kerry/Edwards pairing.
<snip>

Source: Zogby America
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,001 likely American voters, conducted on Aug. 30 to Sept. 2, 2004. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4021


Kerry, Bush Split American Voters On Issues

(CPOD) Sept. 3, 2004 – John Kerry is the preferred choice for American voters to deal with four pressing matters in the United States, according to a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post. 51 per cent of respondents trust the Democratic nominee to do a better job on prescription drug benefits for the elderly and helping the middle class.

Kerry is also regarded as a good politician to deal with health care and stem cell research. Respondents were almost evenly divided on which candidate would be best for education, taxes and the economy.

George W. Bush leads in three other categories. More respondents think the Republican incumbent would do a better job in the U.S. campaign against terrorism, the situation in Iraq and same-sex marriage.
<snip>

Source: ABC News / The Washington Post
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 945 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 26 to Aug. 29, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4015
Bush Approval Back At 50%


Bush Approval Back At 50%

(CPOD) Sept. 3, 2004 – George W. Bush is regaining public support in the United States, according to a poll by ABC News and the Washington Post. 50 per cent of respondents approve of the president’s performance, a three per cent increase since early August.
<snip>

Source: ABC News / The Washington Post
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,207 American adults, conducted from Aug. 26 to Aug. 29, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4009

[Doosh]

1. wow, a whole 2 points

let's face it, the incumbent always has the advantage at his convention, and always has the easier time since he doesn't have to introduce himself like Kerry did.

[Born Free]

15. don't write it off

Democrats need to gift back they need to hit the bush teams myths hard, any unanswered claims made but the bush team and their smear groups hiding behind 527 label that are not answered should be responded to. I also believe there is a need for a serious attack dog in the form of a 527 called "Christians for Truth" that can question the bush cowards supposed Christianity that he boasts about on the campaign trail all the time to get votes. This guy only became a Evangelical after he lost his first election to one ( PBS documentary) and one could certainly look at the actions he has done and ask "Is that what Jesus would do?"
Naturally, Kerry could and should denouce such smear tactics, but he would not have any control over it,as it was a private 527 with no connections tot he democratic party in general or Kerry in particular.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. Look at that statement....."* would do a better job in same sex marriage."

I wonder how Pickles feels about that? * and Zell - now that's a great match!

[pbeal]

3. To early to tell

First of all the polling sample is too small.

Second you poll for a bounce the week after the convention so the poll isn't tilted by the media circus during a convention.

The 3% "Bounce" is in the margin of error the headline should be "Neither convention generates bounce".

[struggle4progress]

4. You might be right. I posted mainly as counterpoint ...

... to the overheated "double-digit Bush lead" Times poll hoopla, which I have real trouble believing, given the ugliness of the Republican performances this week.

[Norbert]

16. This so far is not surprising

I expected a 2-3 point bounce.

Here is my thought. Obviously, n the whole, the Democratic convention was much more toned down in the anit-bush rhetoric than the GOP and the anti-Kerry rhetoric. If they can't make the Kerry bashing stick they are that much worse off. Look at the Keynote Speeches. Obamas was much more uplifting and had more human interest where Zell was one big speech on the attack. People will see through the latter. Even now some of the bush people are backing away from Zell.

Kerry is not in a bad position at this point.

I had to laugh Friday mouning. One of the freeper types on the other board was saying Kerry/Edwards was toast because WorldNetDaily was quoting some AOL poll that said bush is leading in all fifty states. These guys actually eat this stuff up.

[Union Thug]

5. If Kerry plays these last couple months aggressively...

...he can't lose. But he and Edwards absolutely cannot be anything but pitbulls keeping the Bushbots on defense for the next 8 weeks.

Kerry should ignore any attack ads, but respond in kind. What it comes down to is a street fight. This is not an Ali styled precision jabbing, rope-a-dope competition. Bush and Cheney need to be hammered with everything we have, from the war on workers to Halliburton, to AWOL, to coke, to family Nazi connections.. whatever it takes. These attacks must be unrelenting and meme-encoded.... I just don't see any other way.

[tedoll78]

6. You know what really pleases me about this?

This is the best that Bush can ever hope for in this campaign. Once the convention bounce is over, it'll never, ever get so good for him ever again. So while Bush leads Kerry over 3 or so issues with Kerry having the edge on the rest of the issues, it means that the issues are in favor of us..

[mahina]

25. Exactly.

The race is starting now. We may have been paying attention before but most of our neighbors were not. This is a great starting point! Admittedly I am baffled about those who do believe in *. Really baffled.

[DemoTex]

7. Storm surge. Hurricane Bu$h.

By this time next week the waters will be back down. Way down. It is the ebb and flow of the political storm people. Relax. Smoke 'em if you've got 'em. Pop a cold one. Cuppa java. Lay-lady-lay.

Bu$h is going down. He is crisp, burned, smelly toast.

[RodneyCK2]

8. Bush Takes 11-Point Election Lead Over Kerry-Poll

Is this correct, 11 points? I find this hard to believe...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&e=1&u=/nm/20040903/pl_nm/campaign_time_poll_dc

[struggle4progress]

10. SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention

VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.


SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is designed to capture "momentum" swings more precisely than preference questions asked of likely voters. Tracking polls released today, 9/3/04, the day after the Republican National Convention ended, show sizeable swings in the public consciousness.
<snip>

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040903005355&newsLang=en


Friday, September 3, 2004
Who's ahead in the polls? It's Kerry! No, wait, Bush!
Margin of error can make leader meaningless
By MARLON MANUEL
COX NEWS SERVICE

<snip>
Another concern is that fewer people are responding to pollsters. Twenty years ago, nearly seven of every 10 people telephoned by a pollster completed the survey. Today's gold standard approaches five of every 10, though it's not uncommon to have completion rates of just two in 10.

As a result, it takes more time and money these days to call enough willing people to get a sample representative of the country, said Paul Gronke, a polling expert at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

"The advance of telemarketing has also hurt polls severely, as citizens are increasingly using answering machines to screen calls or are simply unwilling to answer the phone," Gronke said. "Once they do answer, many are unwilling to talk."
<snip>

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/189215_poll03.html


I have absolutely no idea what the Time poll means. It's getting wide coverage, but I find it hard to believe that a previously undecided 11% of the public looked at the Republican convention and fell in love with what they saw.

[regnaD kciN]

14. Now, THAT'S a questionable poll!

SurveyUSA's technique of asking people who the think will win, rather than who they plan to vote for, is about as meaningless as they come. How many of those who "swung" to Bush did so simply because "I've been watching the convention highlights for the past few days, and figure that anyone who can put on that big a show will win"...? For that matter, how many of them are diehard anti-Bushers who are now worried that Bush might pull it out? (Based on the huge swing in eastern liberal cities such as Boston and NYC, probably a lot. Does anyone seriously think Bush is going to win Boston, particularly by double digits???)

[struggle4progress]

18. Maybe. It's a poll done for media outlets. So perhaps ...

... it's just an effort to "make up some news." Or (since the Repubs will certainly try to suppress Dem turnout, by pushing the standard steam-roller "Nothing else you losers can do now: the outcome's a done deal") it could be a deliberate effort to demoralize Dems.

But maybe it's telling us something about the need to go out and speak positively to potential Democratic voters about the winnability of this this election.

Here's their current polling results page: http://surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[2Design]

9. Yes he is going to get bounced right out of office :=)

[JCMach1]

11. America has a short attention span

just give the current news... hurricanes... massacres... a chance to take hold

Prediction: DEAD HEAT within 7 days.

[sandnsea]

12. oh for pete's sake

Whatever lead Kerry has ever had, they've always called it a statistical tie. Now Bush has a 2 point lead and they call it a big bounce??? They are just pathetic.

[struggle4progress]

13. Campaign 2004: Prodigal voters returning to roots

Saturday, September 04, 2004
.... As they try to make up their minds, undecided voters with partisan anchors, even weak ones, deliberately seek out campaign information that supports their voting history. To buttress their political leanings, undecideds who have a history of voting Democratic will try to find the best in Sen. John Kerry and the worst in President Bush ... The latest polls still show Bush and Kerry neck and neck, with Bush leading by a percentage point or two, usually within the poll's margin of error ...
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04248/373592.stm

[snippy]

17. Aiming for a larger bounce is why Bush chose to run the Swift Boat ads

when he did. Weakening Kerry's support with lies and smears leading up to the republican convention was intended to create a larger target group for Bush to appeal to.

[AlFrankenFan]

19. I think it's more of the surprise that Bush can talk w/o a hand up his ass

n/t

[mahina]

26. HAHAHAHAHA

That was great!

[Sven77]

20. Terror Warning

yah, how convenient bush didnt have a terror warning after his party's convention like kerry's did.

[Citizen Daryl]

21. Yeah, especially considering someone breached his uber-security ...

...and disrupted his speech.

[Bullshot]

22. Consider that the media have been twisting and contorting the polls

since day-one. When you see how Kerry out-draws Bush at the rallies, when you see Kerry getting endorsements from persons and groups whom you rarely see supporting Democrats, and when you compare the size of the protests in New York compared to Boston, there is obviously something inconsistent with these polls.

[llmart]

23. This makes me feel much better today than. .....

the other questionable polls that keep touting the 11 point bounce he supposedly got. I knew that there was no way that was correct. Just three days ago it was "neck-and-neck" a virtual tie, and then all of a sudden * has an 11 point lead??? This is more believeable and the two points will disappear in a couple of weeks if not sooner.

[GOPAgainstGW]

24. BULLSHIT ALERT!!!!! - - VERIFIED GOP "TEXAS MAFIA" FIX!!!!!

NO OTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE MADE ON THIS SUBJECT


Thank you

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Beltway and Texas Republicans
Against Bush-Cheney ’04, Inc.
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