Bush Leads in Race to 270 Electoral Votes

[Nambe]

Presidential Elections - AP

In a seesaw campaign, President Bush has opened a lead over John Kerry in their drive to White House victory by making gains in the Midwest and solidifying his Southern base.


The race is spread over 19 states, with the fiercest competition in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, according to state polls and interviews with strategists in both parties.

Two months before Election Day, the president has 20 states firmly in his column and eight leaning his way, for a total of 237 electoral votes. It takes 270 to win the White House.

The Democratic challenger has 11 states plus the District of Columbia in hand, with five states leaning his way. That puts Kerry at 211 electoral votes. ..

Need A Hug Go To The Store!

[Ediacara]

1. That's it?

Just 237 votes? What a failure. Even at electoral-vote.com, he's just at 270. After the DNC, Kerry had around 350 ECVs.

I remember in 2000 after the RNC, Bush had a 30% lead, what a terrible performance this time around.

Bush's bounce is aparently minimal, and will fade fast.

[Massacure]

2. I think the bounce is just because of all the Red Meat

There should be plenty of stuff to turn the base off again.

[lancdem]

5. State polls won't reflect the bounce for a week or so

[underpants]

3. After WEEKS of being totally out of it

I don't remember seeing articles about Kerry leading 315 to 200 or whatever it was.

[Daisey Mae]

4. A lot of these post convention polls are done by Republican Pollsters.....

They are designed to discourage the Kerry People....They are known to skewer these polls by "selecting" the demographic they prefer... like no blacks. or just ultra rich, or Evangelical churches and on and on and on.......

[mhr]

6. They Are Not Designed To Discourage Kerry Supporters But Instead

Designed to bolster the Bush supporters.

If enough Bush supporters feel that there comrades are voting for Bush, then they will hold their noses and go to the poles.

[Seabiscuit]

7. Such polls are pure horseshit...

or, more accurately, Chimp Shit.

[IndianaGreen]

8. Kerry's Vietnam record means nothing in terms of a post 9/11 world

I think it was a gross miscalculation to have made such a big production of the 4 months that Kerry spent a war that ended 35 years ago. Kerry could just have mentioned his Vietnam service as a part of his bio, just as Al Gore did during the 2000 Convention.

Kerry should have attacked Bush for his dismal record on the economy, the environment, and his invasion of Iraq. Kerry should have spoken about his 20+ year record as an elected official, as Lieutenant Governor, and US Senator. Kerry should have contrasted his record with Bush's reactionary record.

Sixty days is a lifetime, so there is plenty of time for Kerry to re-focus his message. The first thing he has to do is to neutralize this Vietnam thing, the bad blood that Kerry generated among most veterans when he spoke about war crimes in his 1971 Senate testimony. Kerry should have addressed this issue when he spoke to the American Legion, but that was another missing opportunity.

Being against Bush is not enough, which is why the ABB coalition is so fragile, but Kerry has to give voters a reason for voting for him.

From the article:

But Kerry focused his convention almost exclusively on his Vietnam War record. The strategy temporarily narrowed Bush's advantages on national security and who would make the best commander in chief. Then came attacks on his Vietnam record, which dominated the political debate for most of August.

As he opened the fall campaign by criticizing Bush's economic record, Kerry said Friday, "The president wants you to re-elect him? For what?"

Voters will be asking a similar question: You want us to send an incumbent president into early retirement. For what? Their answer will determine who wins this volatile race.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=696&e=4&u=/ap/20040904/ap_on_el_pr/road_to270

There is nothing wrong with Cahill and the rest of the campaign. What is wrong is that Kerry's message needs to be refocused on the differences between him and Bush. Make the case to change Presidents in the middle of a war!

[PATRICK]

10. SBVFT

was designed to peak just after the convention. The sleaze and the Convention bounce are disguised in each other in perfect timing. it is Bush who must work hard to get beyond this, not Kerry, who has an open opportunity to seize the positive, concrete message.

Even if SBVT is part of the questioning, the effects cannot be separated by an interviewer. That is why the Bush organizational stubbornly clung to those ads no matter what.

[UTUSN]

13. Brokaw Called Them "SBV Against KERRY"

Not often that I agree with a media whore.

[GOPAgainstGW]

9. BULLSHIT ALERT!!!!! - - VERIFIED GOP "TEXAS MAFIA" FIX!!!!!

NO OTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE MADE ON THIS SUBJECT


Thank you

------------------------------
Beltway and Texas Republicans
Against Bush-Cheney ’04, Inc.
------------------------------

[struggle4progress]

11. According to the latest polls listed on the LAT site, Bush and Kerry ...

... are within MOE in Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In addition, recent polls for Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin appear contradictory. There are no recent polls for Arkansas, Delaware, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

Considering the 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 elections suggests coloring Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wyoming red, while coloring Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin blue. Arkansas, Missouri, Nevada, and Tennessee remain unresolved, all four having voted R in 1988, D in 1992 and 1996, and R again in 2000.

Plugging this into the LAT interactive electoral college map (with the remaining states assigned according to the latest available polls) gives Bush 243 electoral votes and Kerry 262 electoral votes, with 33 electoral votes up for grabs. Under this scenario, Kerry would win with either Missouri or Tennessee, or any two of the unresolved states, while Bush would have to carry three of the unresolved states (two of which must be Missouri and Tennessee).

I don't take this too seriously, but it looks to me like the outcome is still wide open.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage.htmlstory

[Gin]

12. the election was held already? damn I missed it......I thought we had 2

months.

[struggle4progress]

17. ??? eom

[UTUSN]

14. Odd. The Faux "Beltway Bozos" Kept JK Ahead 2nd Week in a Row n/t

[jackieforthedems]

15. With The Help

of Diebold most likely.

[NashVegas]

16. earlier poll story

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x801818