Kerry Holds Slim National Lead Over Bush (Léger Marketing / Le Devoir)

[struggle4progress]

(CPOD) Sept. 4, 2004 – The Democratic ticket is leading the United States presidential race, according to a poll by Léger Marketing published in Le Devoir. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for John Kerry and John Edwards, while 47 per cent would support Republican incumbents George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. One per cent of respondents would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo. <snip>
Source: Léger Marketing / Le Devoir
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 796 likely American voters, conducted on Aug. 30 and Aug. 31, 2004. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4028

Rather small sample.


Bush Rating Rebounds, But Still Low
(CPOD) Sept. 4, 2004 – George W. Bush is regaining public support in the United States, according to a poll by American Research Group. 45 per cent of respondents approve of the president’s performance, a two per cent increase since August. <snip>
Sept. 2004 Aug. 2004 Jul. 2004
Approve 45% 43% 44%
Disapprove 48% 50% 50%
Source: American Research Group
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,014 registered American voters, conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, 2004. 2004. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent
http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=4026

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. kick

[Kadie]

2. Maybe we should do a poll of polls and see who is ahead. n/t

[regnaD kciN]

3. Irrelevant...

Any polls taken before the RNC (as the Léger poll was) really have little relevance to the current state of the race.

Every poll taken during and since the convention shows Bush in the lead -- some by a little, some by a lot. A bounce was expected. But even I must admit I'm shocked that not one, but two major polls would show an identical 11-point Bush lead. (When there was merely one such result, I was inclined to dismiss it in favor of Zogby's closer result. Two identical results makes that much harder.) Even more worrisome is that they also show Bush getting a positive "deserves re-election" rating, after being in the negative range for months if not years.

We'll have to watch the next week or two carefully. By then, we should know if this is just a temporary emotion-driven bump in Bush's ratings, or if the country has suddenly had a collective change of heart and is now in Bush's corner for the long haul.

:scared:

[struggle4progress]

5. You're probably right. But for years I have disliked and distrusted ...

... the exact parallel coverage which characterizes Time and Newsweek, and I think my gut reaction to two polls with identical leads is that some difference in polling results would naturally be expected, with such a large jump, especially considering the fact that no two other polls ever seems to agree. :tinfoilhat:

[NashVegas]

4. earlier poll story

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x801818