NYT: A Presidential Campaign Tinged with Rust (Rust Belt swing-states)

[DeepModem Mom]

SWING-STATE DISTORTIONS
A Presidential Campaign Tinged With Rust
By JAMES DAO

Published: September 5, 2004


....if the candidates or their running mates seem to be in (a Rust Belt state) every other day - which, in fact, they are, if not every day - what has the focus on the Rust Belt meant for the rest of the union? Has the national debate been distorted by one region?...

(Analysts in the Midwest say it is a microcosm of the nation; analysts in other regions feel their interests are being ignored.)

***

There is, of course, nothing new about the industrial Midwest being a presidential battleground. That is a result, analysts say, of the region's demographic diversity and political independence, traits that have made it harder to categorize than the reliably Republican Mountain States or the Democratic Northeast.

The region's large number of blue-collar social conservatives are emblematic of that independence. Once die-hard New Deal Democrats, they drifted away from the national party over civil rights, urban crime, affirmative action, gun control, abortion and national defense. In 1972, disgust with Vietnam protesters drove many into the arms of Richard Nixon. In 1980, they became the Reagan Democrats.

But they have been known to return to the Democratic fold during economic downturns, as happened with Bill Clinton's victory in 1992. Mr. Kerry's fortunes depend on that happening again, analysts say, but his campaign has been thrown off-message lately by attacks on his Vietnam War record. If Mr. Bush can keep the debate focused on terrorism, national security and the war in Iraq - and away from the Rust Belt's woes - the region is more likely to tilt Republican, analysts say.

"People here are waiting for someone to talk to them about health care and jobs," said Ed Sarpolus, vice president of EPIC/MRA, a Michigan consulting firm. "And if Kerry and Edwards don't talk to them, they won't vote for change."...


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/weekinreview/05dao.html