Recession may be on horizon, report warns
By Dean Calbreath
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
September 8, 2004
The U.S. economy is running the risk of another recession just as California seems to be climbing out of the last one, economists at the UCLA Anderson Forecast warn in a quarterly forecast to be released today.
The report runs counter to the thinking of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other national economists. They say the country has merely run into a rough patch and will soon resume its expansion.
The Anderson Forecast, a nationally respected economic prognosis, warns that sluggishness in corporate and consumer spending, coupled with an overheated housing market, could throw the nation into a recession by 2006. <snip>
"As a best case, look for the economy's current slow patch to be sustained indefinitely, with no resumption of the dynamic growth the Street is looking for. Alternatively, be prepared for a consumer-led pullback to induce a recession sometime in the next two years." <snip>
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040908-9999-1b8economy.htmlDollar Trades Near One-Week Low on U.S. Growth Outlook Concern
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded close to its lowest in a week against the euro amid concern an acceleration in U.S. growth in the third quarter won't be as fast as some economists previously expected.
The U.S. currency fell 0.7 percent yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told a Congressional committee that retail sales data for August ``have been mixed,'' while inflation is slowing. Economists shaved half a percentage point from their median estimate of growth in the third quarter in the past two months, according to a Bloomberg survey.
``The market had been expecting an upbeat tone from Greenspan and he gave a measured outlook, hurting dollar sentiment,'' said Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of currency strategy in London at UBS AG. ``Analysts are a bit more cautious on the outlook for the second half of the year.'' <snip>
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=af_DLcKO1evo&refer=germanyJob market's only as rosy as the analyst
By SCOTT BARANCIK, Times Staff Writer
Published September 5, 2004
<snip> Florida's low unemployment rate is misleading. It excludes a growing pool of discouraged workers who have given up looking for a job - and therefore aren't counted as part of the state's labor force.
The percentage of unemployed who are out of work half a year or more is rising swiftly.
A growing proportion of workers who want a full-time job can find only part-time work.
To say that Florida is creating jobs faster than any of the 10 most populous states is faint praise. From July 2003 to July 2004, the nine other states created a total of only 339,300 new jobs. <snip>
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/05/Business/Job_market_s_only_as_.shtmlThe missing million
Originally published September 6, 2004
LAST LABOR DAY, we took note of the jobless recovery. At that time, almost two years after the relatively short 2001 recession had been declared over, the American economy still was losing jobs. But this Labor Day, the problem of missing jobs has evolved into the problem of missing workers. <snip>
Trouble is, the U.S. economy right now still has a million fewer people working than at the start of the recession in March 2001. And millions of discouraged workers have been leaving the job market or have become mired in underemployment.
As a result, the labor force participation rate this summer fell to the lowest point in almost 13 years. Economists at the Economic Policy Institute, a labor-oriented think tank, figure that translates to more than two million missing workers.
These are workers so discouraged that they've given up looking for work, and thus they're not factored into the official unemployment rate calculation. If they were -- and there's a good argument for that -- the true unemployment rate would be more like 6.4 percent. <snip>
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/bal-ed.econ06sep06,1,7750575.story?coll=bal-opinion-headlinesThe Story of American Jobs
Director Greg Spotts takes on offshoring, warning that it may make the American dream "more of a myth than an accessible reality"
<snip>
Q: What kind of impact do you think outsourcing to other countries will have on the U.S. in the next 10 years?
A: If we stay on the same course we've been on since Reagan, we'll start to see a significant erosion of the middle class, a lot of people whose talents are underutilized or unutilized. What if, as India and China become more like the U.S., the U.S. becomes more like India and China? We might start seeing more and more people working for subsistence rather than to achieve the American dream of affluence. The American dream might become more of a myth than an accessible reality.
Q: What do you think of recent studies indicating that outsourcing is responsible for only a minute fraction of job loss? According to a June U.S. Labor Dept. report, less than 2% of job loss in the nonfarm private sector was due to outsourcing.
A: They're lies. Those studies are completely funded by tech companies. How can companies say there's a shortage of skilled labor in the U.S. and outsource work when the unemployment rate among tech workers here is growing to record highs? As for the Labor Dept., it's outmoded and not making a real effort to quantify outsourcing. There are no official figures on job loss due to white-collar tech outsourcing because it's not in their interest to keep track. <snip>
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/sep2004/nf20040910_9020_db053.htmBLACK UNEMPLOYMENT: WHY JOBS ARE A CAMPAIGN ISSUE
by CASH MICHAELS
The Wilmington Journal
Originally posted 9/9/2004
<snip> A new TIME magazine poll saw 62% of Americans believing the economy was “only fair” or “poor.” <snip>
According to a new report released this week by the NC Justice Center titled State of Working North Carolina 2004, “… both the quantity and quality of new North Carolina jobs have not equaled pre-recession levels.”
“From March 2001, when the recession began, to June 2004, North Carolina has experienced a net loss of 71,300 jobs,” the Justice Center says. “This has led to an increase in the number of workers who are long-term unemployed (over six months), who run out of unemployment benefits before getting a new job or who take part-time work when they need full-time.” <snip>
Of the new jobs that are being created in the state, “the lower job quality is a difficult problem” for many workers,” the report notes. The industries showing the most job growth “tend to pay less and are less likely to offer health insurance.” <snip>
http://wilmingtonjournal.blackpressusa.com/news/Article/Article.asp?NewsID=48071&sID=4
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