Perfect conditions brew up hurricanes(phase could last another 20- 30 yrs

[RedEarth]

Perfect conditions brew up hurricanes

Ivan leaves a deadly toll in its wake in Grenada; now it's heading for Jamaica

By TIMOTHY APPLEBY
With a report from Associated Press
Friday, September 10, 2004 - Page A10

Hurricane Ivan roared toward Jamaica and Florida last night, leaving in its wake a trail of death and destruction. As it intensified into a fearsome Category 5, packing 250-kilometre-an-hour winds and killing at least 20 people in Grenada, Barbados and other Caribbean islands, evacuations were under way in the Florida Keys.

And when Ivan is gone, more of the same may well lie ahead. Possibly a great deal more.

Another week, yet another hurricane. So why is all this happening?

When hurricane Juan tore through Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island a year ago, causing more than $100-million in damage, scientists quickly noted that the Atlantic waters in which the storm was nurtured were two or three degrees warmer than the long-term average.

....
This current phase could last another 20 or 30 years, weather experts say.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040910/HURRICANE10/TPInternational/Americas

[amazona]

1. some say it's a 40 yr cycle

I recently read a book that claimed that tropical activity goes in a 40 year cycle of relatively low and then relatively high so the busy cycle we're entering could conceivably last the rest of our lives for many of us middle-aged or older folks.

An interesting speculation: This book claimed that the cycle pre-dated global warming and that best evidence for global warming is not hurricanes/tropical storms (in fact, he was disappointed to find the evidence in that area was weak) but in the changes in the mountainous areas such as the Andes losing their glaciers and of course in the Arctic with the disappearance of the northern polar ice cap.

I'm forgetting the name of it, will have to check it out in the library again. It is the story of a young British man who was brought up in Peru near a glacier and who decided to return to Peru, to find that the glacier had gone. He was already disturbed because of the disappearance of the traditional Charles Dickens Christmas weather in England and also the horrible floods they've apparently been having in Britain over the past decade. Good book, I feel bad to forget the title!

But it did leave me with the impression that, while humanity has much to answer for, we are not necessarily to blame for tropical storm activity.

[redqueen]

2. This sounds like BS to me

Recorded weather patterns go back further than 120 years. Was there ever a 'hurricane a week' period?

[amazona]

5. was there ever? sure

I thought Lili and Isidore were one right after another in my town in 2002. There was a November in the mid/late 1980s where we got three hurricanes/tropical storms that passed over my neighborhood in Metairie one right after another. It is the nature of things that tropical storm activity comes in clumps. Not uncommon at all in southeast Louisiana. What surprises me is that I was completely unaware that the Tampa area of Florida had gone "unhit" for so long. You tend to see things through your own experiences, and living in Louisiana, my experience is that they do come in waves -- and the likeliest time for such a wave is indeed August through September. But October and November aren't necessarily guaranteed to be pleasant either.

But I don't believe hurricanes will keep hitting this area of Florida week after week after week. The pattern will break up, and then they might not get hit again there for years. Now, if I am wrong, and storms keep hitting one after another like a railroad train, then all bets are off, and I truly don't know what we as a society are going to do....


Best thing would be to find a good statistical breakdown of the occurrence of these storms...it has got to be out there somewhere. People don't realize how severe these storms used to be. If this is truly the new "normal," we are going to need some better evacuation methods for sure -- in the old days, thousands of people used to be killed by these storms, and we would not wish to go back to that.

[redqueen]

9. Exactly... we need a statistical analysis

'new normal'... that just makes me so mad.

STILL, the pervasive desire to IGNORE reality is so very strong...

:grr:

[starroute]

12. Weather Underground has maps going back to 1886

Go to http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ and find "Hurricane Archive" about halfway down the page.

1886 shows 10 storms. 1887 shows 16. 9 in 1888 and also in 1889. Just 1 in 1890. 11 in 1891. 9 in 1892. 12 in 1893. And so forth.

[Ernesto]

13. I can't understand why anybody would live in such a place.

No dis-respect intended. It just seems like an awful place to live. I've been in a couple of earth quakes & seen what forest fires can do, but going through such storm seasons year after year just seems crazy to this Californio.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Did the book cover how often the Arctic icecap melted enough....

...to allow ships to sail across the area? At the present rate of temperature increases at the pole, the Arctic will be an open ocean in twn years. Has that ever happened before in all of recorded history?

And why are some scientists studying the potential shutting down of the Gulf Stream due to the melting Greenland icecap?

And what about the receding glaciers worldwide?

My point is that NONE of the activity we're seeing now was taking place 40 years ago. And I'm old enough to know from personal experience.

[amazona]

6. yes, some of his best evidence for global warming came from the arctic

He spent a great deal of time on the Gulf Stream and the Arctic and the coming formation of the Northwest Passage, because it was the best evidence for global warming and our need to take action. He also visited the disappearing glaciers in the Andes, at some expense in personal grief, as no one likes to see the beautiful disappear.

He seemed surprised that he couldn't find proof to tie in tropical storm activity to global warming. Perhaps there will be better proof coming.

[sam sarrha]

11. when the gulf stream stops and heats up 10 or 20 degrees.. there will

be hell to pay... It would result in one NEVER ENDING CONSTANT level 6 to 10 HURRICANE roaring up out of the south 8 months of the year. they will just blame the weather on the F'n Liberals... that F'n Clinton TOO !!!

[belle]

3. Either way, I think I'd maybe consider someplace besides Miami to retire

[jumpstart33]

7. The thought of all those horrible Floridians moving to blue states is

nausiating. They went there to "escape" taxes, inner cities, and people who don't fit their mold of "real rich Americans." We have some who live in our area and in my mon's condo during the winter months. They are some of the most rude, obnoxious people you ever want to meet. My mom can hardly stand to walk through the lobby of her condo during the winter months. You speak to these snots and they turn their back on you or look the other way. One man in response to my mom's "good morning" said to her "what's so good about, eh?" She never has forgotten that as well as his wife's snobbishness. I guess one should not judge groups by a few people, but I haven't met one yet who didn't display some sort or arrogance or unkindness. Have you?

[Ganja Ninja]

8. Most of those "horrible Floridians" came from blue states.

What do you think their all natives? Florida is full of either retirees or people that couldn't find jobs in the rust belt. They far out number the locals.

[Gin]

10. Global warming is a fact....we humans are making the process happen

quicker....stand by for weird weather patterns...the east coast has always been hurricane prone..this may be the new pattern for the future...

I have relatives in Tampa, who are not snobs, with good jobs, who vote democratic. Snobs are everywhere.

People are worse than anyone!