AP Poll: Bush Holds Slight Lead on Kerry

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Fri Sep-10-04 11:01 PM
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AP Poll: Bush Holds Slight Lead on Kerry

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&u=/ap/20040911/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&printer=1

AP Poll: Bush Holds Slight Lead on Kerry

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) opens the fall campaign with a slight lead over Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), an Associated Press poll shows, as voters express growing confidence in the direction of the country and the performance of the incumbent.

Seven weeks before Election Day, the Republican is considered significantly more decisive, strong and likable than Kerry, and he has strengthened his position on virtually every issue important to voters, from the war in Iraq (news - web sites) and creating jobs — two sources of criticism — to matters of national security and values.

Since the Democratic National Convention ended in late July, the president has erased any gains Kerry had achieved while reshaping the political landscape in his favor: Nearly two-thirds of voters think protecting the country is more important than creating jobs, and Bush is favored over Kerry by a whopping 23 percentage points on who would keep the United States safe.

"If we don't take care of the terrorists, we certainly won't have to worry about the economy," said Janet Cross, 57, of Portsmouth, Ohio, who switched from Democrat to Republican for the last election.

Among those most likely to vote, the Republican ticket of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) holds a lead of 51 percent to 46 percent over Kerry and Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites), with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) receiving 1 percent.

The AP-Ipsos-Public Affairs poll showed minorities, urban residents and other Democratic voters unified behind Kerry, as would be expected in the fall. But he lost ground in virtually every other demographic group: lower educated voters, suburbanites, rural voters, the middle class, married couples and baby boomers.

Many voters seemed to be retreating to Bush's camp after flirting with the Democrat, whose nominating convention was heavily focused on his Vietnam War record. For example, those in the GOP-leaning South narrowly favored Kerry in early August but now support Bush 58 percent to 38 percent. Married men slightly favored Bush last month but now back the president 2-to-1.

Among all registered voters, Bush-Cheney led the Democratic ticket 51 percent to 43 percent, a modest bounce in support since early August, when Kerry-Edwards led 48-45 percent.

The reversal is the result of a month of GOP-inspired criticism of Kerry's war record combined with a Republican National Convention scripted to undercut the Democrat's credibility and cast Bush as a steady commander in chief, said strategists in both campaigns.

"There's something I don't like about Kerry — too wishy-washy," said Don Dooley, a 54-year-old conservative Democrat from Grand Prairie, Texas, who is leaning toward Bush. "George is not the ideal kind of person, but at least he's more predictable than Kerry."

The question now is whether Bush's gains are as temporary as they were for Kerry — or the first sign of a fundamental shift in the race.

"I don't know if we know that yet," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd, "but I think there's beginning to be some permanence to it." He said the president could settle into a lead of 3 or 4 percentage points, which could only be upset by a major event, such as the presidential debates.

Democrats predicted the race will be even in the next week or two, especially in the dozen or so states where the election will be decided.

"They had a convention and got a bounce just like we had a convention and got a bounce," said Kerry pollster Mark Mellman. He said Bush's gains were already eroding, pointing to polls taken during and after the convention that gave the president a double-digit lead.

For the first time since Kerry wrapped up the nomination, the AP-Ipsos poll suggests that a majority of voters approve of the president's job performance — 52 percent. The lifts him out of the danger zone for incumbents.

The percentage of voters who think the country is on the right track rose from 39 percent to 44 percent since August. The nation's spirits, while less than buoyant, are higher than when Democratic President Clinton (news - web sites) was re-elected in 1996, polls show.

Bush has fought an uphill battle against voter anxiety, fueled by the loss of nearly 1 million jobs during his term, rising health care costs and a war in Iraq that has led to more than 1,000 U.S. military deaths.

Half of voters approve of Bush's handling of the economy, up from 46 percent in August and the highest since January. His approval rating for the war on terrorism increased from 51 percent to 55 percent.

Voters were slightly more likely to say a candidate's positions on issues is more important than leadership and personal qualities. Of those who cited issues, Kerry was favored by 10 percentage points. People making a gut-level choice overwhelming favored Bush, 65-29 percent.

On the question of who can be trusted to protect the country, Bush gained 7 percentage points and Kerry lost the same amount — a 14-point swing. The shift was just as big on decisiveness, with 75 percent assigning that trait to Bush and just 37 percent saying they would use that word to describe Kerry.

There was a 9-point swing in Bush's favor on the issue of honesty, an 8-point swing on strength and 10-point swing on which candidate would do better creating jobs.

The AP-Ipsos survey of 1,286 registered voters, conducted Sept. 7-9, had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The sample of 899 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

___

Associated Press Writers Will Lester and Trevor Tompson contributed to this report.