Conditions in Ohio Point to Kerry, but Bush Runs Strong

[Thurston Howe IV]

It wasn't supposed to be like this.

Everything seemed to be in place for a powerful run by Senator John Kerry in Ohio in the stretch drive after Labor Day. Al Gore lost the state by 175,000 votes in 2000, despite having pulled all his advertising early in October. Ohio has shed 250,000 jobs since George W. Bush became president. Rocked by scandals and an unpopular tax increase, the statehouse Republicans, from Gov. Bob Taft down the line, have been in unaccustomed disarray for weeks.

At the end of last month, the Census Bureau reported that Cleveland, with a poverty rate of 31.3 percent, led the country in that most dubious category, and at the beginning of this month American deaths in Iraq topped 1,000. Both developments might have given a leg up in the campaign to Mr. Kerry, a critic of Mr. Bush's economic policy and his conduct of the war. Yet Mr. Kerry seems to be falling back.

Ahead by six percentage points in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in mid-July, Mr. Kerry trailed by nine points in a similar survey taken Sept. 3 through Sept. 7, immediately after the Republican convention. Kerry aides said the second poll had been taken too soon after the convention to be meaningful, but its results mirrored the impression of many savvy Ohio political figures.

"With all he's got going for him, it's hard to believe Kerry is stumbling so badly here," said William P. Blair III, a Canton lawyer and lobbyist, a former Democrat and nominal Republican who now describes himself as an independent of sorts.

For more analysis of factors shaping Ohio:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/12/politics/campaign/12ohio.html

[spooky3]

1. hmmm....I thought it was Thurston Howell on Gilligan's Island?

[Thurston Howe IV]

2. Yep, it was Howell not Howe

I picked the name just a couple of weeks ago while doing something for "Billionaire's for Bush." It was late at night, and I wasn't in top thinking form. Unfortunately, one can't change display names on DU once they've been submited.

[wurzel]

3. Telephone polls are worthless. Who answers their telephone anymore?

The "polls" can only consist of people who answer a telephone without knowing who is calling. A very restricted group.

[Thurston Howe IV]

5. Yes, polls are worthless, but ...

The poll is only as good as the sample and the questions asked. The vast majority of polls get both wrong in some fundamental way.

I think the more interesting thing in the article is the analysis of factors at play in Ohio, especially as regards Kerry's attempt to win the state.

[lancdem]

4. The two most recent polls in Ohio

have Kerry up by 3 (Rasmussen) and down 3 (survey USA).

[zbdent]

6. Credit the "Brain Drain" - Akron Beacon Journal ran a series about

how Ohio's young college-educated people are leaving the state for the fruitful (they hope) areas elsewhere.

Not too much to entice a bunch of kids to stay in the snow belt/rust belt. Why stay nearby when technology and cheap air fares allow you to keep in better contact with family anymore? (cell phones, e-mail, FedEx, etc.) (this paragraph is by my own assessment).

So, you got the brains draining out of the state, what do you have left? A lot of angry, older, lesser educated people who are more easily convinced that the taxes are eating them alive, not the businesses who are "lured" here by the abatements and pack up and leave when the abatements were closing.

[Philostopher]

7. What I see, which isn't dissimilar to what you see, is this:

Ohio's a playground for cheap-labor, tax abatement loving companies of every size, not just corporate vultures who come in, take the abatement for a while and then abandon ship when they bet a better offer elsewhere. Smaller companies that do 'dirty' work love Ohio, too. They find none of that pesky environmental legislation, since environmental enforcement was one of the first things to go when the federal funds started receding; relatively low taxes even without abatements; cheap property values; and people who are so desperate for an income they'll work for sh*t money and no benefits because there isn't anything else and they can't afford to relocate.

The businesses that do come and stay here are small to medium-sized, tight-fisted and tend to employ the economically borderline and ill-educated, who can be convinced without a great deal of effort that somehow having a state full of two-bit employers who don't pay anything or provide much in the way of benefits means Ohio's business community is healthy, and that if they were only responsible enough for themselves, they wouldn't need to go to the doctor or dentist.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. What happened?

Does Ohio want to be a Third Rate State???

:wtf: is going on here?

How can they support *???

:eyes:

[sonicx]

9. gallup is garbage. other polls have it very close. nt

[Snellius]

10. It's NOT the economy, stupid

In the present state of wartime hysteria, voters feel it is their patriotic duty to defend the nation. Clinton, Shrum, the DLC crowd are completely off base to advise Kerry to downplay the war on terrorism in favor of domestic issues. Even those who feel Kerry is more in touch with their immediate concerns, do not see how he can do anything to change it any more than Bush. Unless Kerry can outflank the president with a more aggressive war posture -- "I will stop wasting our efforts chasing neo-conservative fantasies and focus our forces on defeating the real villains of 9/11", "My first mission is to see bin Laden dead", etc. -- economic problems are not dire enough to change course.

[Copperred]

11. Kerry is going to win.

Kerry is going to win....


Sitting in Ohio....

RK

[RevolutionStartsNow]

12. I will be in Ohio on election night

I arrive in the evening, just in time to watch returns...that will be a tense night, but I hope to be able to shake the hands of lots of Ohio voters when Kerry takes it.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

13. Dupe (deleted)

[AndyTiedye]

14. Does Inhaling All Those Burning Rubber Fumes Rot the Brain?

I'm not sure which was scarier, breathing the air in Acrid^H^Hon,
or talking to the locals and hearing them say "what smell?"

I haven't been through there in quite a few years.
Does it still smell like that?

[DivinBreuvage]

16. No, my friend, those jobs all went to Meheeko long ago

I do remember that stench, though. My dad worked in downtown Akron, and when I was little there were a handful of times that my mom had to drive him to work and of course couldn't leave me at home. Man, did it stink!

I wouldn't blame it on the rubber anyway, I think Akron is a democratic bastion. But Ohio has always had a strong streak of the stupid type of conservative, as the history of the Civil War will show.

[DivinBreuvage]

15. My informal Ohio bumper sticker/yard sign poll puts Kerry HUGELY ahead

By a 2-to-1 margin. I keep track of these things on a notepad as I drive around each day. Since I started keeping track about a month ago I've seen 80 for Kerry or Kerry/Edwards, 41 for Bush/Cheney or the "W" personality cult, 2 for Dennis Kucinich and 1 for Bob Dole. I also saw 1 "Proud to Be a Democrat" sticker, but since there were no presidential items on the car technically I didn't count it for Kerry.

A handful of the Kerry vehicles (3 to 5) had Vietnam or Gulf War badges on the license plate (two of these had the "Defend America - Defeat Bush" sticker). I haven't seen a single vehicle with a military service badge that was also rooting for Bush.

One of the "Bush/Cheney" vehicles also sported a "Boycott France" sticker (grrrrr!) Two of the Bush stickers were "Sportsmen for Bush".

Curiously, not a single one of the yellow ribbon or "United We Stand/American Flag/God Bless America" people (and there are a lot of these) carried a presidential endorsement for either candidate. This seems to me highly significant.

Most of the Bush stickers are on SUVs or those monster pickup trucks, and most of those are black or midnight blue, with red a distant second. A majority of the Kerry ones are on nice new compact or mid-sized cars, generally lighter in color (white, silver, or gold).