Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concerns -NYT

[Rose Siding]

WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 - President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.

Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome.
...

On the other hand, the divisions within the administration over how to deal with North Korea mirrors some of the old debate about Iraq. Hard-liners in the Pentagon and the vice president's office have largely opposed making concessions of any kind in negotiations, and Vice President Dick Cheney has warned that "time is not on our side" to deal with the question. The State Department has pressed the case for negotiation, and for offering the North a face-saving way out. While the State Department has won the argument in recent times, how to deal with the North is a constant battle inside the administration.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/12/international/asia/12nuke.html?ex=1252641600&en=eee560fa911b4dcf&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland

So, is Cheney arguing for nulear war? gulp

[frylock]

1. that's a regional problem

[fearnobush]

2. Thats why Chimp wants to pull our troops out of S. Korea.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

17. Bush's proposed troop withdrawl will take the better part of a decade.

Not part of this issue in the short run.

[acmavm]

3. Oh hell, what's the problem. bush* can singlehandedly take on North

Korea, Iran, Syria, AND Venezuala and with God on his side whip all their asses with a single blow.

Which is about as likely as him having served honorably and fulfilled his duty while in the Guard.

edit: spelling screw up

[NMDemDist2]

4. gee ya think? headline is a no brainer n/t

[dennis4868]

5. who the hell will believe us.....

if we tell the world that North Korea is a threat....NO ONE...WE HAVE LOST ALL CREDIBILITY BECAUSE OF CAPTAIN AWOL!

[Walt Starr]

6. Believe me, North Korea is about to detonate a nuclear bomb

and they are going to do it before the election, probably next month.

This is how the Bush administration is going to put the intelligence failures behind them. Read the damn article. They are "dividing" the intelligence community along the same lines as Iraq and this time, there WILL BE WMD, just in North Korea.

Then all the Busheviks have to say is, "we listened to those who told us not to worry, just like they told us the same thing about Iraq, and now we have another nation with nuclear weapons."

THIS IS THE FUCKING OCTOBER SURPRISE!!! WE NEED TO GET OUT IN FRONT OF THIS RIGHT THE FUCK NOW!!!!!

[Ohio rules]

8. It's a poker game.

we were led to think Saddam had an active WMD program.
after going in....surprise.
wrong war,wrong place?

Same thing with N Korea.
You think for one minute the N.Koreans would drop and run from the United States invaders let alone hand over WMD ?

Take it with a grain of salt.( no pun intended with S.A.L.T ) we would have heavy loss of life with nothing to show but millions of dead peasants.

Is N.Korea the Right war,right place ?

At least Kim comes to the table .
China should appease him regionally.
just my $0.02

We have to fight smarter.

[EST]

12. Walt-

I left messages at main campaign HQ as well as the HQ here in illinois to try to track Kerry down and let him know to get on TV right away. That was about 2 hours ago. It's sat nite and everyone with any sense is probably out doing something important. Tried to get hold of anyone in California, since they are a couple hours behind here and I hoped there might still be someone around, but their voice mail didn't even pick up. Don't know any more direct way to get hold of Kerry to give him a heads up. Any Ideas?

[BeHereNow]

14. Agreed-

HOW?
BHN

[Nordic]

26. It's Sunday, Walt. You were right. Got any stock tips for us?

Whatever you do, take care of that crystal ball!

[teryang]

7. Cheney needs to pre-empt

A conventional conflict would ultimately result in a complete American withdrawal from the strategic peninsula and needs to be avoided.

William Perry and others have stated that it is impossible to target N. Korean underground facilities and be sure that the nuclear program and weapons have been taken out. The capability of the north to reach American continental targets via ballistic missiles is probably non-existent at this point. This is what he means by time is running out. He wants to have it out now.

The threats are part of the bargaining strategy but actually they make the committment to a nuclear option by the north stronger. A short quick nuclear conflict on the peninsula (with all its racist and genocidal implications) might keep China out of the conflict at least in the short term. A conventional conflict would quickly draw them in unless Taiwan is sold down the river in a latter day "Pact of Steel."

Positive incentives have to be provided to arrest the deteriorating security conditions in Korea. This is what the Agreed Framework of 1994 was all about. Bush repudiated it.

[Mika]

11. A NK Missile Warhead was Found in Alaska

NK Missile Warhead Found in Alaska
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htm

The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday.

``According to a U.S. document, the last piece of a missile warhead fired by North Korea was found in Alaska,’’ former Japanese foreign minister Taro Nakayama was quoted as saying in the report. ``Washington, as well as Tokyo, has so far underrated Pyongyang’s missile capabilities.’’

[teryang]

20. Delivering a piece of metal v. nuclear warhead

The latter is a quantum leap from the former. The latter requires telemetry development and miniturization of weapons components. Such technological development was illegally delivered to China by US aerospace firms and obtained through Chinese espionage at ultra secret US nuclear weapons labs.

The Koreans do not currently have the technological ability to deliver big bertha via an intercontinental ballistic warhead. The better counterpoint would be an alternative delivery means say by shipping container or to say that they have a shorter range delivery capability which could be used to attack American or allied targets in the region.

It should be noted that the kind of "crazy" or pathological picture painted of Kim is actually quite uncharacteristic. He may be personally violent as an unchecked tyrant but he is quite shrewd like his father. His primary motivator now is fear. He would go back to the old agreed framework in a heartbeat. It is not even known if they have nuclear weapons now, it is estimated that they may have a very small number, as low as two. It would take a very serious provocation for him to engage anyone in a nuclear attack because his vulnerability is so great in so many ways. My personal opinion is that his rule if not his regime is close to collapse.

[lapfog_1]

9. Russia will beat us to it.

Putin doesn't have the conventional forces required to win
in Chechnya, and the recent terror attacks against the Russian
people, with the worst one being the attack at the school, leave
him no choice but to act. WE established the "Bush doctrine" which
says a number of things... a) either with us or with the terrorists
(demonizes countries for the act of terrorists) b) grouped a HUGE
number of terrorist tactics into being "WMD"s and c) no one needs
to worry about world reaction or UN or stuff like that, preemptive
action is the way to go. With the Bush Doctrine in hand, Putin
can put some of those suitcase nukes to good use as "strategicly
equivalent weapons" as was used by the Chechen terrorists (never mind
if they really WERE Chechens). The use of nuclear weapons will
likely ignite the war between Islam and the former superpowers that
Bin Laden wanted all along.

[punpirate]

10. Funny thing is...

... that the Bushies have been pushing for this ever since they came to office. They cut off relations with the North Koreans almost immediately. Then they named them as part of that foolish "axis of evil." Then they made North Korea one of seven countries that the Pentagon should draw up plans for nuclear war, which the North Koreans have seen as compelling evidence of intended US agression against them. Then they effectively sabotaged the SK-NK diplomacy project.

Once work started on the reactors in August, 2002 (done as part of the deal during the Clinton administration forced by Jimmy Carter's negotiations with NK), the Bushies sent James Kelley in October, 2002, to threaten them. Part of the deal made in the `90s was to guarantee heavy oil for heating and electrical generation. The Bushies put an oil embargo against them, violating the previous agreement.

Many here think that Rumsfeld is just profiting from his position as a director of ABB, one of the biggest companies in the consortium building the reactors (which, by the way, were meant to stymie any North Korean plans for a nuclear weapons program--light water reactors don't produce weapons-grade plutonium as do graphite-moderated reactors). More likely is that he was on the ABB board to induce the consortium to go slow on the project, thus frustrating the North Koreans. The reactors were supposed to be done in 2003, and even without international tensions, wouldn't be done until about 2012

Every step of the way, the US has been steadily backing North Korea into a corner. Expecting them to be compliant under those circumstances shows a complete lack of faith in diplomacy--along with very little to no understanding of the North Korean mind.

Beyond all that, the timing of this is significant. It's just one more item that the Bushies can use to tell the public, "don't change horses in mid-stream." And, if they win, it will be the evidence they need into scaring Congress into the next round of spending to greatly expand the missile defense program, even though there's no evidence whatsoever that North Korea has missiles capable of the 8-10K kilometer range necessary to strike large US metropolitan areas on the west coast. Even missiles in testing have been in the 2-3K kilometer range, and none of those have been deployed.

Classic case of diplomacy vs. confrontation, and the US has chosen confrontation, with predictable results.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

19. Yes. Unfortunately, the Bush regime is full of belligerati.

Yes. Unfortunately, the Bush regime is full of belligerati.

[teryang]

31. Brilliant summary of the situation

Thank you. I'm saving it.

[Bluebear]

13. "A house with flames licking up the side of it raises concerns."

Stupid assed headline.

[Sven77]

15. some new links

Big Blast, Mushroom Cloud Reported in N.Korea
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&e=1&u=/nm/20040912/ts_nm/korea_north_explosion_dc

Large explosion in North Korea last week
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/nkorea_blast

[steely]

16. "confusing series of actions"

Everything confuses these guys.
Shrub didn't understand the intel report that read "Light fuse - get away".

[IndianaGreen]

18. So, what was that mushroom cloud that was reported by Reuters and others?

Has NK already tested an atomic bomb, or did they blow themselves up while trying to? Why are we hearing this rash of stories now?

Having NK with nukes is like giving Charley Manson a loaded AK-47 and cutting him loose in downtown LA.

This shit is scary! Is fear the emotion they are trying to elicit from us, because if they are, they are sure succeeding.

:scared:

[teryang]

21. Dick Cheney and John Bolton are more dangerous

"Having NK with nukes is like giving Charley Manson a loaded AK-47 and cutting him loose in downtown LA."

I'm suprised you fall for this jingoistic characterization. How much do you really know about Kim Jong Il?

[IndianaGreen]

22. Kim Jong Il is a lunatic and a horrible tyrant

that keeps the North Korean people living under the most brutal conditions. Kim's cult of personality exceeds the worst excesses of the Mao and Stalin personality cults!

To say that Dick Cheney and John Bolton are worse or more dangerous than Kim Jong Il is idiotic and highly inaccurate.

[teryang]

23. No it's not idiotic

How many wars has Kim Jong Il started?

[IndianaGreen]

24. I suggest you go to Korea

or meet some Koreans here in the United States. Your sense of proportionality is off-kilter, and not based on facts. How can you compare any American political leader, however misguided, to a regime that has caused the deaths of millions of its citizens? A country that has engaged in hostile actions against South Korea and Japan, including murder and kidnapping.

North Korea has been at the top of the list of worst offenders of human rights for years by organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International. Here is but an excerpt of one of many reports about NK that AI has published on their website:

Starved of Rights: Human Rights and the Food Crisis in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)

For more than a decade, the people of North Korea - one of the most isolated nations on earth - have suffered from famine and acute food shortages. Hundreds of thousands of people have died and many millions more have suffered from chronic malnutrition. The actions of the North Korean government exacerbated the effects of the famine and the subsequent food crisis, denying the existence of the problem for many years, and imposing ever-tighter controls on the population to hide the true extent of the disaster. North Korea remains dependent on food aid to feed its people, yet government policy still prevents the swift and equitable distribution of this aid, while the population is denied the right to freedom of movement, which would enable people to go and search for food.

Human rights are universal, interdependent and indivisible. The rights to be free from hunger and discrimination are as fundamental as the rights to life and security of person. Violations of the right to food may in turn lead to other human rights violations. Indeed "the human right to adequate food is of crucial importance for the enjoyment of all rights"(2), as noted by the United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. In North Korea, the interdependency of rights, and the linkages between violations of these rights has been starkly illustrated during the famine and the ongoing food crisis. People who have sought desperately to assert their right to food - by moving around the country to search for it, by crossing the border into China, by eating what they find - have then been subjected to violations of other rights, as the North Korean authorities arrest, detain and in some cases even reportedly torture and execute them.

In this report Amnesty International highlights human rights violations in North Korea during the famine and food crisis. The report details violations of the right to food, other human rights violations in the context of the famine and food crisis and the role and responsibility of the North Korean authorities and the international community. It also offers detailed recommendations which would, if implemented, bring about immediate and longer term improvements in the human rights situation in North Korea, and alleviate the suffering of the North Korean people.

http://web.amnesty.org/library/Index/ENGASA240032004?open&of=ENG-PRK

[teryang]

30. Lived in Korea for three years

Speak and understand Korean conversationally. I am associated with a Korean community now. My family is Korean. I used to listen to North Korean radio broadcasts and watch the "Hermit Kingdom" on television every thursday night on KBC. I learned to speak Korean from watching Korean television and living with Koreans. In my life here in the states I have met very few non-Korean people as familiar with Korea and Korean culture as myself. Two of these were intelligence officers and two others were Army operations officers assigned to general staff positions. There are more but they are few and far between.

Most Americans couldn't even find a toilet in Korea on their own. They have no clue what is going on there. They depend on their government to inform them. That's proven reliable right? I find it amusing when such people attack my credentials in this way. Al gae saw yo? Many Koreans who understand international affairs regard the American regime we have now as the greatest threat to peace on the peninsula because of their imperial chauvinism and interference with the rapproachment that was going on between the north and south. At best Koreans view the American forces as a necessary evil. These are the people I get my information from. I could get on plane and go to any place in Te Han Min Gook tomorrow without a guide or interpreter and go where I want and do and see what I want. I have respect for the national culture, not N.Korean stalinism.

No one is defending Kim Il Song. He's a ruthless dictator. The hunger situation was caused by a regressive dictatorship and compounded by American meddling in their power program. After a series of huge natural diasters caused an intractable famine, N.Korea (Buk Han) needed nuclear power for tractor production, irrigation production and power. They gave that power up when they signed the Agreed Framework. The Americans promised to build two new nuclear power plants (at N.Korean expense) by 2003 and supply huge amounts of fuel oil and food in the interim. There was an anticipatory breach by the American side on the promise to build the reactors. It was obvious by the time Bush took office. It was a machiavellian double cross pure and simple. (I understand Rumsfeld was on the board of directors of the corporation responsible for financing the contruction project.)

Upon taking office bush slighted the S. Koreans, called Kim a pygmy, and overtly breached the Agreed Framework agreement with N.Korea. This compounded the economic diaster in N.Korea and prompted them to renew their nuclear programs.

Cheney leads a group of Iran Contra characters and neo-cons who presided over torture, terrorism and slaughter in more than one Central American nation in the Eighties, started the U.S. crack epidemic, looted the nations banking system, planned the 911 attacks, and started the Iraqi war. A list of every terrorist act, assassination, airline destruction, and bombing carried out by Kim on the international scene doesn't even come close to the international crimes of aggression committed by Cheney and company.

The fact that men of Cheney's and Bolton's totally immoral and ruthless character are threatening to topple and overthrow N.Korea on a regular basis after they created the international security crisis on the peninsula by breaching the agreed framework proves that they are threat to the sixty million lives on the Korean peninsula and international peace.

Kim inherited a ruthless dictatorship. Cheney is creating one with a plan for world domination. When another war in which tens of thousands die is started by our ruthless murderers perhaps you will change your chauvinistic viewpoint. Kim would sign another agreed framework non-agression agreement, to get fuel, food and light water reactors for his country in a heartbeat. His position is so weak and untenable now I expect his rule to end at any time if not the collapse of the entire regime. Cheney and Bolton will never do it. N.Korea has too much to lose to start a nuclear conflict or any sort of conflict but the racist energy conquistadors in the executive office here would start one to seize N.Korean territory and resources.

The reality is that sunshine policies of rapproachement in Te Han Min Gook would drive the Americans off their toehold on the East Asian mainland. This is what aggravation, threats, brinkmanship from Cheney and Bolton are all about, to thwart this policy and obstruct the emergence of a new and even more powerful Korea. Nuclear power will eventually be the number one source of power in north Korea after unification. There is nothing that can stop this.

The neo-con threat is the same one MacArthur posed, conquer the north. The unfortunate reality is that China won't let it happen. Land war with China. Risking the lives of all on the peninsula. Who is crazy? Who is racist? The stuggle for control of Korea is centuries old. Who has been on the receiving end? The Korean people.

Son eh son gap go, byawk ul naw ma saw...1988 Seoul Olympic theme Hand in hand over the wall we cross...

[Beetwasher]

25. PeopleNK JUST DID TEST A NUCLEAR BOMB!!!

The admin. is trying to cover it up.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=516&ncid=716&e=2&u=/ap/20040912/ap_on_re_as/nkorea_explosion

They even trotted Powel out for the HUGE lie, as usual. They always give the biggest,most blatant fucked up lies to either Powell or Condi.

[VladTheImpaler]

27. Ther're only doing this because we've forced them into it!

Peace now!

[salin]

28. hey vlad

where in the heck is the logic behind that statement? Either I am missing your point, or I would suspect this is an attempt to "play act" (e.g., type something one imagines someone on the left might say, if one has fallen for the silly stereotype that rush etal put out of "America Haters.")...

[Kathy in Cambridge]

29. ole Vlad is being facetious

you can smell it all over his posts. :eyes: