Bush Post-Convention Lead Slips to Tie With Kerry

[KittyWampus]

Bush Post-Convention Lead Slips to Tie With Kerry

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is in a statistical tie in three of four national polls with Democratic nominee John Kerry, who trailed by as much as 11 percentage points after the Republican National Convention. Bush leads in the fourth survey, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, by 13 points.

Bush had 47 percent to Kerry's 46 percent in a Sept. 11-14 Pew Research Center poll. A Sept. 9-13 Harris Interactive poll showed Kerry with 48 percent to 47 percent for Bush. An Investor's Business Daily poll conducted Sept. 7-12 found them even with 46 percent support each. And Gallup gave Bush a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent in its survey from Sept. 13-15.

``The bounce is over,'' John Zogby, president of polling company Zogby International, said in an interview. ``This is not an 11 point race. It never was an 11 point race. I doubt it will ever be an 11-point race.''

Kerry eroded Bush's gains after the Republican National Convention by focusing on the lack of funds for job training and health-care initiatives because of the cost of the ``wrong war'' Bush is fighting in Iraq. ..................

snip

Tad Devine, a strategist for Kerry's campaign, said in a telephone interview that if Bush's post-convention bounce only ``lasted two weeks he's in trouble.'' Bush ``needed a bounce that lasted two months,'' Devine said.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKqs4qwWUpGU&refer=us

[NoBorders]

1. 3 polls have them tied; Gallup = dead! n/t

[lancdem]

3. A fourth poll, by Democracy Corps, has them tied, too

[KittyWampus]

5. A Tie Sounds Very Reasonable.

[shockingelk]

2. The polls now are clear as mud.

Note that they all started off agreeing within four or five points of each other on what the difference between Bush and Kerry's polling numbers were - nopw the difference is more like 14 or 15 ...



I'm keeping track of those 10 here:

http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

[wsswss]

4. Thanks for tracking these

Thanks for tracking these, shockingelk. Very interesting.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi wsswss!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[goforit]

15. What does the purple/blue vs the pinky/peach mean.....

a difference in likes and dislikes????

This isn't well shown or indexed.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

16. I'm more than a little shocked by the polls conducted by FOX and...

...ABC/Washington Post because they, like Zogby and Democracy Corps, have this race dead even.

The next cluster of 3 polls gives FratBoy a 5-10 point lead, including Newsweek, CBS, and ABC.

The lowest cluster of 3 polls includes those conducted by Gallup, CNN/USA Today/Gallup, and Time, gives FratBoy a 10-15 point lead.

Yep...all over the map. No consistency whatsoever.

[Wright Patman]

6. All the pollsters but Zogby

consistently showed the chimp with a double-digit lead over Gore in the fall of 2000.

I disregard all of them except Zogby for this reason. The fact that they haven't adjusted their models to reflect reality tells me they do not really care about accuracy, but are merely trying to create a "bandwagon" effect for the Chimperor.

[Pathwalker]

8. Kicking this so it'll be next to the thread about the * lead.

:kick:

[mconvente]

9. Good news

All national polls except Gallup/Time has Kerry tied with Bush. Of course we all know CNN is the new Faux News (I really want to slap Paula Zahn across the face) so it makes perfect sense the all Time Warner affilated polls would show shrub up.

[llmart]

10. Kick.....

Have to keep this near the top so none of us here at DU fall for the media's propaganda. Unfortunately, this is not what the sheeple will see. All they'll see is that Gallup/CNN/USA Today crap.

[natrat]

11. kick it

tito

[KittyWampus]

12. Kick, Cause Some Are Still Obsessed W/Thread Falsely Claiming Bush Lead

[goforit]

13. I'm confused!!!!.......Bush was almost declared the winner by CBS/Times.

This is F*CKING making me nuts!!!!

Just the way Rove wants me to feel!!!!

[ItsMyParty]

14. A point and a question

CNN had Shapiro of US Today on (part of that Gallup Poll) and he said that Gallup is totally out of whack and those things happen about 1 in 20 polls. He said the weighted polls are all off because of the slant towards repubs and yet no one really knows this year what the voting turnout per party is going to be. He also stressed that the polls do not use cell phones and thus, are cutting out a lot of talking to young voters. Remember this is from the paper who is part of commissioning this poll!!!! Now my question---

I see a reference above to the CBS/Time Poll----was that TIME as in the magazine that had a 12-13 point lead for him in just their last poll and last issue??? If so, it reflects just what other polls are showing which is "gooooooing down". I was wondering what their next poll was going to show.

[Zech Marquis]

17. and that's the bottom line!

Hell, the so called bounce didn't even last ONE week :eyes:

[KittyWampus]

18. Bush In Freefall- Headline We'll Never See.