WP: Democrats Reassess Prospects to Win House

[kskiska]

As Kerry's Momentum Lags, Hopes of Regaining Majority of Seats Dim, Analysts Say

Democrats' hopes of regaining the House majority this fall -- never bright at best -- appear increasingly dim, in part because of Sen. John F. Kerry's lackluster campaign performance over the past six weeks, numerous analysts say.

In late July, as upbeat Democrats held their convention in Boston, party leaders said they had capable, well-financed House candidates poised in several states to exploit a nationwide trend that seemed just around the corner. "Democrats can win the House back if this breeze, this movement for a change, continues," said Rep. Robert T. Matsui (Calif.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Since then, however, Republicans conducted a sharp-edged convention in New York, Kerry was slow to respond to attacks on his character and policies, and many of the Democrats' most promising House challengers seemed frozen in place.

When the Massachusetts senator appeared to gain momentum entering and exiting the Boston convention, "the theory was it would all seep down to the House races," said Amy Walter, who tracks House contests for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "But it hasn't happened." Among top Democrats, she said, "you just don't hear that same level of enthusiasm you did a month ago."

more…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32029-2004Sep18.html

[grasswire]

1. you know what to do

[e-mail]

[mreh]

2. So they think putting this crap in the paper will deter us?

The only ones they are fooling are themselves. (imho)

[Rose Siding]

3. I need a drink

Doesn't this just frost your cookies:

Two Democratic gains in special elections this year -- in Kentucky and South Dakota -- were offset when lawmakers elected as Democrats from Texas and Louisiana switched to the GOP

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

4. I don't know how it is elsewhere but.....

.....where I live, Washington State, the voters are likely to elect Democrats to one maybe two Congressional seats currently held by Republicans.

[alfredo]

7. Our congressional contests have been pretty good `

here in Ky. We might be able to take back a seat or two.

[baby_bear]

8. Yo_Mama, which seats are you thinking of?

Are you thinking that the 8th will be taken over by Dave Ross (that he will beat Reichert) and that Nethercutt's position will revert to the Dems?

Just wondering what you are thinking...

s_m

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

12. I think the 8th will likely go to Dave Ross

Reichert thinks he's got fame for catching Gary Ridgeway but he should have solved the Green River case years earlier. A few more women night be alive today if he did.

I understand there is a pretty strong Democratic candidate in Netehrcutt's district. That is the one I'm less certain about.

[Yupster]

5. Gonna lose about five

here in Texas where I live thanks to a very special bout of redistricting.

[Jane Austin]

10. Have you seen any polls in those districts?

I'm dying to know how it's going.

[Nevernose]

14. Fuckers.

I get regular updates from my family in East Texas. I feel your pain. Texas is going to hell in a handbasket. Move to Arkansas ro Louisiana or New Mexico while the gettin's good.

[mitchtv]

6. My district is liberal republican

will likely stay that way. The Dems in California are in complete disaray, or so it seems in my end of the district. Arnold has them reeling.Not a set of balls in the bunch. On the assembly seat however, I see a pickup for Dems.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Well, let's not ignore how the GOP has cheated to insure a victory

Thanks to aggressive GOP-led redistricting there last year, five Democratic lawmakers from Texas are fighting for survival in districts redrawn to favor Republicans. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (Tex.), the plan's chief engineer, told reporters last week that Republicans are ahead in all five of those races, a claim Democrats dispute. "We will gain seats in this election," DeLay said.

Texas is not the only state where GOP redistricting efforts have hurt progressive candidates. And Texas is not the only state in which the GOP has used aggressive tactics in purging voters from the rolls. He who makes the rules, controls the game!

[DU9598]

11. Iowa

We are not likely to knock off any of the four repukes and Leonard Boswell, our only Democrat, is running a crappy campaign and could well get knocked off.

[depakid]

13. More drivel from the Washington Post

I've come to the conclusion that there's nothing that paper won't say and no slant too bias for them.

[oldsneakers]

15. Democrats still leading in national voter preference

They're at least 5 points ahead. This should equate to a 5-10 seat pickup. In actual fact there are only about 25 seats in play and the last I looked we were doing pretty good in more than half of them.

[davsand]

16. You will see a lot of split tickets in November.

I really think a lot of people will vote in anger this year. I think what will materialize in the end will be a strong anti-incumbent feeling for several specific races.

I'm seeing it even at a local level where there are both GOP signs and Dem signs in yards. Last week I drove down a major street and saw at least a couple of yards with local GOP signs sitting in the same yards with Kerry Edwards signs. I even saw a yard that had all Dem signs except for ONE local race where it is a weak Dem running...

I think the House may still be in play, but I doubt that anyone can call it just yet.


Laura

[Green Lantern]

17. I have heard from some Greens

that while they are voting for Kerry for Pres, they are not going to support Dems for Congress as a payback for the DP efforts regarding ballot access.

[pinkpops]

18. Kerry needs national adds. The national pools affect

perceptions in swing states. The typical schmuck just reads the headlines, wants to follow the flock.

[pfitz59]

19. "Fire-fighting" 'LIE-beral media'......

trying to dampen Dem spirits! "Give up, don't vote, it's not worth it, why bother, you're gonna lose"...etc, etc. Messages overt, covert, subliminal and otherwise. The COROPORATE MEDIA is banking on low voter turnout. Spread apathy and undermine confidence. 2 months to go and they say "give up the fight". I say "NEVER!"

[stepnw1f]

20. "Lackluster Performance" or Just Plain Media Ignorance

Talk about painting pictures. I love how these folks frame issues or make issues up. Yet Bush doesn't have a performance to run on, but the media is always more than happy to shill for him. Notice how Bush never has to say more than a few sound bites for his campaign?

Then the media comes out to speak for him. Talk about performance! One big act is what I see.