NYT: C.I.A. Review Is Critical of Prewar Iraq Analysis

[DeepModem Mom]

C.I.A. Review Is Critical of Prewar Iraq Analysis
By DOUGLAS JEHL

Published: September 22, 2004


McLEAN, Va., Sept. 21 - A review by the Central Intelligence Agency has identified serious weaknesses in analytical work on Iraq but continues to hold that the prewar conclusion that Iraq possessed illicit weapons was reasonable based on the information available at the time, an internal document shows....

***

The C.I.A. document, dated August 2004 and obtained by The New York Times, summarizes conclusions reached by a panel called the Iraq W.M.D. Review Group, which completed a 10-month review in May but has not made its findings public. Among the analytical flaws identified in the group's report were what was described as "imprecise language" and "insufficient follow-up" as well as "sourcing problems" in the prewar intelligence on Iraq, including "numerous cases" in which analysts "misrepresented the meaning" of intelligence reports about Iraq's weapons.

The August report, a new C.I.A. publication known as "Tradecraft Review," found the agency's analytic judgments to have been reasonable, but it also described the C.I.A.'s analytical branch as having "never been more junior or more inexperienced" than it is now and said that some of the "systemic problems" uncovered might reflect more general "tradecraft weaknesses" across the branch, known as the Directorate of Intelligence.

The interview with Mr. McLaughlin was arranged by the C.I.A. after The Times obtained the internal document and requested that a senior official be made available to discuss it. The document was based on a presentation made to C.I.A. analysts in May by Jami Miscik, the deputy director for intelligence. Ms. Miscik joined Mr. McLaughlin in his office for the interview....


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/22/politics/22intel.html

[shockingelk]

1. There were two phases of "pre-war intelligence"

Phase I: before 2002-2003 inspections
Phase II: after

During phase I, the arguments was that Iraq had reconstituted huge industrial complexes churning out terrible poisons and refining weapons grade uranium. Complexes so massive their nefarious activities could bee seen from space. We were shown pictures. Pentagon news breifing and accompanying slides

During phase II, the arguments were ... "mushroom cloud" "sept 11" "can't wait until it's too late"! Despite the fact the assertions from phase I had been conclusively debunked.

Here's an essay about the distinction. Dunno, nobody here was excited about the distinction the first time I posted it here ... I think it's an important distinction.

on edit: fixed link

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Agreed, shockingelk -- (nt)