http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/nation/9675958.htmPosted on Thu, Sep. 16, 2004
Iraq outlook dim in classified report
The new intelligence estimate outlines three scenarios, none of them good. Two GOP senators criticized Bush's policy.
By Douglas Jehl
New York Times News Service
WASHINGTON - A classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in late July spells out a dark assessment of prospects for Iraq, government officials said yesterday.
The estimate outlines three possibilities for Iraq through the end of 2005, with the worst case being developments that could lead to civil war, the officials said. The most favorable outcome described is an Iraq whose stability would remain tenuous in political, economic and security terms.
"There's a significant amount of pessimism," said one government official who has read the document, which runs about 50 pages. The officials declined to discuss the key judgments - concise, carefully written statements of intelligence analysts' conclusions - included in the document.
The intelligence estimate, the first on Iraq since October 2002, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council and was approved by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under John McLaughlin, the acting director of central intelligence. Such estimates can be requested by the White House or Congress, but the officials said this one was initiated by the intelligence council under George Tenet, who stepped down as director of central intelligence July 9.
more>