HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR WEDNESDAY– 9/15/04

[GOPAgainstGW]

1:00 AM CST 9/15/04 -UPDATE: HURRICANE IVAN

Hurricane Ivan Update - 1:00 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004
265 Miles South-Southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. (I)
***Same Directional Motion is expected to continue the next 24 hours

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 4

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934MB(I)….27.58(I) INCHES
**7th most Intense Hurricane in U.S History (D) (PRIOR 5 / 3)
**IVAN HAS INCREASED THE LAST THREE READINGS IN MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE, YET
**THE EYEWALL WALL AND VISIBILITY OF THE EYE HAS CLEARLY INCREASED DURING THE
**SAME PERIOD, PER GLOBAL PHOTOS. IN SHORT, DESPITE THE INCREASE IN PRESSURE, IVAN
**SHOWS NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING MATERIALLY BEFORE LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 140 MPH(S)
GUSTS TO: 170 MPH(S)
***THIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF
***IVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WIND SPEED
***PROJECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. (5:00 PM - NHC REPORT)

KEYNOTES: (D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same since last report

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER
HEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE
COAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING.

>>HOWEVER...WE EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.<<

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

A BUOY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF IVAN IS REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 83 MPH. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

>>SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

MOBILE AL.........31
GULFPORT MS.......31
BURAS LA..........32
NEW ORLEANS LA....26


---------
COMMENTS: I hope the NHC knows what they are doing in their projections, because so far they have been horrible!

HIGHEST DIRECT HIT PROBABILITIES PER NHC - 10:00 CST 9/14/04
MOBILE AL.........31
GULFPORT MS.......31
BURAS LA..........32
NEW ORLEANS LA....26<<<<<<<<<

THE WEATHER CHANNEL DOWNPLAYED THE DIRECT HIT PROBABLITY TO NEW ORLEANS THIS EVENING, WHICH WAS AGAINST PUBLISHED DATA PER ABOVE. RIGHT (EASTERLY) STEARING OF IVAN BEFORE LANDFALL IS CONTINGENT ON TWO EXTERNAL FACTORS AND TO-DATE THE FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN WRONG ON PROJECTED IVAN TRACTS AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE 20% WINDOW.***SEE MORE BELOW**

===================
1:00AM UPDATE:

THIS SURFACE MAP SHOWS HURRICANE IVANS PRESUMED STEERING. THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA IS MOVING DIRECTLY FOR IVAN WHICH WILL STEER IT NORTH-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS NORTH AND EAST OF IVAN ALONG THE GULF AND FLORIDA COASTLINE PROVIDING WESTWARDLY AND SOUTHERN PUSH TO IVAN. IN FACT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO ACTUAL STALL IVAN OUT AFTER IT IS ON SHORE THE SECOND DAY.

THE CONCERN AMONG SOME INDEPENDENT FORECASTERS IS THAT THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT EFFECTS WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO STEER IVAN AWAY FROM A DIRECT HIT ON NEW ORLEANS. TO-DATE THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST PROJECTS HAVE CONTAINED EXCESS MARGINS OF ERROR, AND IVAN HAS REMAINED UNPREDICTABLE WITHIN THE 20% ERROR WINDOW.

==================
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR TUESDAY, 9/14/04 – Many Awesome Pictures Here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=825852&mesg_id=825852
==================

[GOPAgainstGW]

1. Multi-Track Projection Map

[abburdlen]

24. bad

Having been through a few storms -thankfully none of this magnitude- my thoughts are with everyone along the path. Ivan is going to be terrible for the gulf as well as the NC mountains. The projections above show the remains of the storm stalling out over NC/TN border for possible 3 days. Last week they got 15+ inches of rain from Frances. Some are calling for another 20+ inches :(

2004 likey will go down as the most expensive hurricane season ever.

[GOPAgainstGW]

2. Current Ivan Photo with Well Defined Eye

[GOPAgainstGW]

4. High Quality Ivan Photo 1

[GOPAgainstGW]

5. Photo 2

[GOPAgainstGW]

6. Photo 3

[GOPAgainstGW]

8. Photo 4

[shanti]

37. is ivan getting smaller

or am i nuts?

[GOPAgainstGW]

3. Ivan Surface Map

1:00AM UPDATE:

THIS SURFACE MAP SHOWS HURRICANE IVANS PRESUMED STEERING. THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA IS MOVING DIRECTLY FOR IVAN WHICH WILL STEER IT NORTH-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS NORTH AND EAST OF IVAN ALONG THE GULF AND FLORIDA COASTLINE PROVIDING WESTWARDLY AND SOUTHERN PUSH TO IVAN. IN FACT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO ACTUAL STALL IVAN OUT AFTER IT IS ON SHORE THE SECOND DAY.

THE CONCERN AMONG SOME INDEPENDENT FORECASTERS IS THAT THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT EFFECTS WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO STEER IVAN AWAY FROM A DIRECT HIT ON NEW ORLEANS. TO-DATE THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST PROJECTS HAVE CONTAINED EXCESS MARGINS OF ERROR, AND IVAN HAS REMAINED UNPREDICTABLE WITHIN THE 20% ERROR WINDOW.

[ezekiel333]

7. What is the source of your comments sections

I am interested as to the origin of the following from your post:

COMMENTS: I hope the NHC knows what they are doing in their projections, because so far they have been horrible!

HIGHEST DIRECT HIT PROBABILITIES PER NHC - 10:00 CST 9/14/04
MOBILE AL.........31
GULFPORT MS.......31
BURAS LA..........32
NEW ORLEANS LA....26<<<<<<<<<

THE WEATHER CHANNEL DOWNPLAYED THE DIRECT HIT PROBABLITY TO NEW ORLEANS THIS EVENING, WHICH WAS AGAINST PUBLISHED DATA PER ABOVE. RIGHT (EASTERLY) STEARING OF IVAN BEFORE LANDFALL IS CONTINGENT ON TWO EXTERNAL FACTORS AND TO-DATE THE FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN WRONG ON PROJECTED IVAN TRACTS AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE 20% WINDOW.***SEE MORE BELOW**

===================
1:00AM UPDATE:

THIS SURFACE MAP SHOWS HURRICANE IVANS PRESUMED STEERING. THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA IS MOVING DIRECTLY FOR IVAN WHICH WILL STEER IT NORTH-NORTHEAST. HOWEVER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS NORTH AND EAST OF IVAN ALONG THE GULF AND FLORIDA COASTLINE PROVIDING WESTWARDLY AND SOUTHERN PUSH TO IVAN. IN FACT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO ACTUAL STALL IVAN OUT AFTER IT IS ON SHORE THE SECOND DAY.

THE CONCERN AMONG SOME INDEPENDENT FORECASTERS IS THAT THE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE FRONT EFFECTS WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO STEER IVAN AWAY FROM A DIRECT HIT ON NEW ORLEANS. TO-DATE THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST PROJECTS HAVE CONTAINED EXCESS MARGINS OF ERROR, AND IVAN HAS REMAINED UNPREDICTABLE WITHIN THE 20% ERROR WINDOW.

[Swamp Rat]

9. Try this link

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[ezekiel333]

10. I know where NOAA is

I want to know where the analysis used in the comments section came from.

[Swamp Rat]

11. How are you guys doing?

I'm stuck here in New Orleans. Our mayor really fucked up - there are NO shelters in the city. While I still have power, I've been watching every update from NOAA.

There's been a lot of sensationalistic and unhelpful threads here at DU these last two days. I'm not commenting about THIS thread, but others that I've seen. Do you know of any links concerning road conditions with spy cams?

[ezekiel333]

12. All good here, so far...

I've been tracking all the models along with the NOAA average and they all look in agreement for it to hit between Gulfport, dangerously close for you, and Mobile. The emphasis being on Mobile. I'm in Panama City and we are on the ugly side, but hopefully, we will be far enough out to just get windy and wet. However, it is still a long way out there and can go anywhere it wants.

As for road conditions with cams I don't know many I did find this but most likely you already have it.
<http://www.dotd.state.la.us/press/traffic_cameras/traffic.asp?page=no_cameras>

I hope it doesn't head your way, I can't imagine what the damage of a direct hit to NO would be like.

Hang in there!

[Swamp Rat]

14. Thanks for the link and thank you.

I'm waiting for the 7 am update. :-(

[undergroundrailroad]

13. Thanks GOPAgainstGW for the maps and the updated information.

Stay safe all. :hug:

Undergroundrailroad

[Swamp Rat]

15. Thank you Mina

I have to stay in New Orleans. :(

[cmf]

16. So, they expect that Northerly turn today

Either way, it's going to be bad. If it doesn't turn, then NO is screwed, if it does, then Mobile is (Mobile may still be screwed either way, since it's on the bad side of the storm). At least the pressure seems to be rising. It looks like the TeeVee and internet news people have picked up on what a sexy story (:grr:) it is if the hurricane doesn't hit Florida and hits NO or Mobile instead. One weather guy on the Weather Channel last night was practically orgasmic at the thought of this thing hitting Mobile - "Look at the shape of that bay - all of the storm surge forced into a tiny area!" He actually looked happy about it. It made me want to puke. Just report the facts, salivating over the destruction this is going cause isn't going to help those in harms way.

[Swamp Rat]

18. Yes, that asshole on the Weather Channel is David Schwartz.

He reminds me of Bill O'Reilly with a wig. He dramatizes what should be unadulterated facts... very unhelpful. Did you see when he acted like a hotshot when he spoke one sentence of Spanish? What a pendejo! ¡Cabrón!

[cmf]

21. You're in NO?

Are you still in the city? Good luck - I'm keeping everyone there in my prayers. Maybe this will be one of those that downgrades really rapidly before making landfall (a girl can hope, right?). A good family friend of mine has to stay - he's a civil engineer with the parish. The rest of the family has gone to stay with my mother in Lake Charles. My cousin lives in Mobile, and I can only assume that she and her husband have gotten out. I can't get a hold of her (which I figure is a good sign).

[Swamp Rat]

23. I have to stay here in New Orleans

:(

[tedoll78]

17. Here are some interstate traffic webcams..

for those wondering what the I-10 going through New Orleans looks like:

http://www.nola.com/traffic/cams/

No word from my parents this morning yet, who were supposed to leave Kenner for a cousin's house in Lafayette around midnight. They keep saying that this thing is going to turn, but it still obviously has notable western movement. If it were Cat 2 or 3, I'd be a bit more confident.. but Cat 4 & 5 hurricanes are much more unpredictable..

Stay safe, all! You'll be in my thoughts today!

[spinbaby]

19. The roads are almost empty!

Has everyone who's going to bolt already left?

[Boomer]

22. That's so strange

I was expecting to see bumper-to-bumper traffic. Can the entire city empty out that fast? Or is this a distressing sign of how many people are *staying*?

[Kukesa]

20. Better than "The Weather Channel" -- many thanks! n/t

[spinbaby]

25. The latest

Looks like it's on track for Mobile:




the last reconnaissance mission concluded at 12z...and the next
aircraft will be arriving momentarily. Peak flight level winds of
127 kt during the last pass support about 115 kt at the
surface...and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
Over the past few hours the 50 nm wide eye has become a little
better defined with cooling cloud tops. Competing influences make
the intensity forecast difficult. The hurricane is now passing
over a warm Gulf Eddy which could aid intensification...although
data collected by a NOAA research aircraft yesterday suggest the
Eddy may not be as potent as previously thought using satellite
measurements. The upper-level outflow pattern is well-established
north of the cyclone at the present time with no shear evident. On
the other hand...there is considerable dry air in the west
semicircle that could still penetrate the core...and the shear is
expected to increase near landfall. The bottom line is that I
expect some net weakening of Ivan prior to landfall...but still
expect it to make landfall as a major hurricane.


The initial motion estimate is 350/11...and Ivan looks to be making
the expected northward turn. Ivan remains on the previous forecast
track and there are no significant changes to the forecast...
although the new track is just a bit faster to the coastline.
Model guidance remains tightly clustered until well after
landfall...where there are a variety of possible solutions for the
remnants of Ivan. The official forecast continues to show the
possibility of a major flooding event over the southern
Appalachians late in the forecast period.

[Wilber_Stool]

26. 1415 Z

[Occulus]

33. wow, lined up all nice and neat, aren't they?

I'm reminded of bullets. Sheesh.

[LynzM]

35. These are truly beautiful pictures

Scary as all hell, but beautiful. Thanks.

[GOPAgainstGW]

27. 10:00 AM CST 9/15/04 -UPDATE: HURRICANE IVAN

HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE - 10:00 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004 – NHC - 53
>(D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same/(C)hanged since/from last report<

235 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
10:00 AM - MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH(C) NEAR 13 MPH(I)
07:00 AM - MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. (S)
***THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
***ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
***THE COAST DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 4

10:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939MB(I)….27.73 (S) INCHES (*)
07:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939MB(I)….27.73 (I) INCHES
01:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934MB(I)….27.58 (I) INCHES
…..(*) NO NHC RECON UPDATE - NEW DATA THIS AFTERNOON

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 135 MPH (D) (*)
GUSTS TO: 160 (D) (*)
…(*) PREVIOUS 140/170
…LEAVE UNTIL NEW RECON DATA AS UPDATE #’S ARE ONLY NHC UNMEASURED ESTIMATES
…AND DECREASE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS BASED ON INCREASE IN IVAN’S FORWARD MOVEMENT SPEED ONLY.

**13th most Intense Hurricane in U.S History (D) (PRIOR 7 / 5 / 3)
**IVAN HAS INCREASED THE LAST 12 HOURS IN MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE, YET
**THE EYEWALL AND VISIBILITY OF THE EYE REMAINS WELL FORMED AND HIGHLY VISABLE
**WITH NO DECREASE IN WIND SPEED 140/170 IN THE LAST 18 HOURS DESPITE THESE
**INCREASES IN PRESSURE. NHC DATA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF IVAN WEAKENING BEFORE
**LANDFALL WITH CONTINUED 140/170 WINDS. (135/165 latest estimate)

HIGHEST DIRECT HIT PROBABILITIES
PANAMA CITY FL…19
PENSACOLA FL........38
MOBILE AL................43<<<<
GULFPORT MS..........39
BURAS LA..................38
NEW ORLEANS LA...20 (D from 21 / 26, last two projections)

---------

KEYNOTES – 11:00 AM - 09.15.04

>> IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.<<

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. >>COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. << THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL.

IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL….WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. (I) (PREVIOUS 260)

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

==================
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR TUESDAY, 9/14/04 – Many Good Ivan Photos Here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=825852&mesg_id=825852
==================

[GOPAgainstGW]

28. Track Projections

[GOPAgainstGW]

29. Current Ivan Imagery -1

[GOPAgainstGW]

30. Current Ivan Imagery - 2

[Myrina]

31. He sure is taking his time ....

It's been, what ... a week ?
Is that normal ?

[GOPAgainstGW]

34. That's why it's so powerful. Slower it moves, more eyewall rebuilding time

[GOPAgainstGW]

32. Fire Up AirForce One - I'm On My Way to the Ivan Site - Prez G.W. Bush!

Sorry, this hurricane is so very serious that I needed a little fun break.

I'll post some Offshore Bouy Data in a little bit. Ivan is kicking 60-80 ft seas. - R.E.

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.....Official Press Releases on SBVT: http://blog.johnkerry.com/rapidresponse

[LynzM]

36. 80 feet?!

Yikes. I cannot even imagine that... Prayers for everyone down there, rescue and civil workers, civilians, Coast Guard that have to be out in that...

[Eye and Monkey]

39. Dubya ain't coming near the Coast until way after the "all clear" -

And if he does come at all, he will spend more time collecting campaign cash than actually putting eyes-on and figuring out how to fund the repair of the devastation. Oh, yeah, and there might be a photo-op - with a bullhorn, Dubya standing on a pile of debris.

President Coolidge come down on a railroad train
With a lil' fat man with a notepad in his hand
President say "Lil' Fat Man, isn't it a shame?
What the River has done to this po' crackers' land?"

Louisiana, Louisiana, they tryin' to wash us away
They tryin' to wash us away
(Randy Newman, 'Louisiana 1929'

[Wilber_Stool]

38. Latest High Res.

11:15am 09-15-04




Eye at 300% Maybe more?

[Catherine Vincent]

40. The following 2 quotes from what movie fits this thread perfectly?!

"Big Son of a Bitch!"

"Crazy Ivan"


Can anyone guess what movie?

[LeftHander]

41. Down Periscope - nt

[Hobo]

43. Hunt for Red October (nt)

[Catherine Vincent]

51. Yep. That's it.Hunt for Red October with Sean Connery and Alec Baldwin

[Dover]

49. WOW! Looking right down the eye of Ivan. A remarkable photo!

Thanks for posting.

[0rganism]

68. I can see the next Daily Sun Tabloid frontpage...

SATAN APPEARS IN IVAN'S EYE!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

42. Mobile gets the direct hit- prob. at 48%

from latest data.

[GOPAgainstGW]

44. 1:00 PM CST 9/15/04 -UPDATE: HURRICANE IVAN

HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE - 1:00 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 – NHC – 53a
>(D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same/(C)hanged since/from last report<

170 MILES SOUTH OF ALABAMA COASTLINE.
01:00 PM - MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH(I)
10:00 AM - MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH(C) NEAR 13 MPH(I)
07:00 AM - MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. (S)
***THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
***ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH
***THE COAST DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 4
01:00 PM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939MB(I)….27.73 (S) INCHES (*)
10:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939MB(I)….27.73 (S) INCHES (*)
07:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939MB(I)….27.73 (I) INCHES
01:00 AM - MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 934MB(I)….27.58 (I) INCHES
…..(*) NO NHC RECON UPDATE - NEW DATA THIS AFTERNOON

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 135 MPH (D)
GUSTS TO: 160 (D)
..(*) PREVIOUS 140/170
..LEAVE UNTIL NEW RECON DATA AS UPDATE #’S ARE ONLY NHC UNMEASURED ESTIMATES
..AND DECREASE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS BASED ON INCREASE IN IVAN’S FORWARD …MOVEMENT SPEED ONLY.
..CURRENT GLOBAL SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOWS IVAN’S EYE WALL …STRENGTHENING

**13th most Intense Hurricane in U.S History (D) (PRIOR 7 / 5 / 3)
**IVAN HAS INCREASED THE LAST 12 HOURS IN MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE, YET
**THE EYEWALL AND VISIBILITY OF THE EYE REMAINS WELL FORMED AND HIGHLY VISABLE
**WITH NO DECREASE IN WIND SPEED 140/170 IN THE LAST 18 HOURS DESPITE THESE
**INCREASES IN PRESSURE. NHC DATA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF IVAN WEAKENING BEFORE
**LANDFALL WITH CONTINUED 140/170 WINDS. (CURRENTLY ESTIMATED 135/160)

HIGHEST DIRECT HIT PROBABILITIES
PANAMA CITY FL…19
PENSACOLA FL........38
MOBILE AL................43<<<<
GULFPORT MS..........39
BURAS LA..................38
NEW ORLEANS LA...20 (D from 21 / 26, last two projections)

---------

KEYNOTES – 1:00 PM - 09.15.04

>> IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.<<

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. >>COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. << THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL.

IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL….WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. (I) (PREVIOUS 260)

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

==================
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR TUESDAY, 9/14/04 – Many Good Ivan Photos Here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=825852&mesg_id=825852
==================

[GOPAgainstGW]

45. Track Projection - Ivan Still Has Not Turned N-NE However!

[Wilber_Stool]

46. Latest RADAR

Latest Water Vapor 1815Z

[GOPAgainstGW]

47. Current Imagery - 1

[GOPAgainstGW]

48. HQ Photo - 1 Approach Coastline - Shot From Mainland -(All HQ's Nice!)

[Media_Lies_Daily]

53. What URL are you using to get these great pics? Thanks in advance!

[Wilber_Stool]

56. Here

http://www.noaa.gov/

[Media_Lies_Daily]

57. Great! Thanks again!

[GOPAgainstGW]

50. HQ Photo - 2: Top View

[GOPAgainstGW]

52. HQ Photos - 3 : Top View 2nd

[GOPAgainstGW]

54. HQ Photo - 4: From Behind Ivan

[Dover]

55. These pictures just take my breath away. Beautiful, horrible, powerful

nature.

[GOPAgainstGW]

70. Beautiful and Horrible, - - Hey Reminds Me of My Ex, Haaaaa!

[soup]

58. Tampa Bay area getting some high water.

The ducks own our street again. Love watching them swim by, but not amused by the rising water. High tide has come and gone, and still it's rising. Not nearly as fast as it was earlier, but it's up past our sidewalk now. Sounds like tomorrow morning's high tide could bring even more.

Amazing, considering how far offshore Ivan is.

I hope everyone upstate on the west coast of Florida and up around the bend east of this storm is way clear of low-lying areas, and keeping an eye on the surge factor - let alone what the storm itself will bring.

Stay safe, everyone. My heart and thoughts are with you.

[Wilber_Stool]

59. 02:45pm 09-15-04

[GOPAgainstGW]

60. 6:00 PM CST - 9/15/04 -UPDATE: HURRICANE IVAN – INCR IN STRENGTH!!

HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE - 6:00 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004 – NHC – 54a
>(D)ecreased/(I)ncreased/(S)Same/(C)hanged since/from last report<

>> IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AFTER LANDFALL FOR APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IVAN’S EYEWALL HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY. (*) FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY IVAN MAKING LANDFALL DURING A PROJECTED HIGH TIDE. IVAN’S PRESENT RECON PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THE PRESSURES OF HURRICANE CARLA-’61 AND HURRICANE HUGO-‘89 <<

(*) COMMENT: From review of current satellite photos, Ivan’s eye has substantially increased as to symmetry and rotation. It clearly looks like Ivan’s pressure has dropped and intensity increased as it hit warm water off the Gulf Continental Shelf. This is CLEARLY not good news! This is one of the worst hurricanes I have seen in a long time. I pray nobody was stupid along the key landfall zone, and decided to “stick it out”. Ivan will stay a hurricane for another 12 hours after if comes ashore on a high tide!

POSITION: 105 MILES SOUTH OF ALABAMA COASTLINE.
MOVING TOWARDS THE:
06:00 PM - NORTH NEAR 14 MPH(I)<<--------STILL NO N-NE TURN
04:00 PM - NORTH NEAR 14 MPH(S)<<-------
01:00 PM - NORTH NEAR 14 MPH(I)<<--------
10:00 AM - NORTH(C) NEAR 13 MPH(I) <<>> (STOPPED NORTHWEST DRIFT)
07:00 AM - NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. (S)
*** THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
***FORECAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 9 HOURS

A BUOY ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF DAUPHIN ISLAND REPORTED 50 FT SEAS.
>>>MAXIMUM SEAS TO 103 FT AT MAX STORM SURGE IMPACT POINT EAST OF
>>>EYEWALL ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED.
***SEE PROJECTED HIGH SEAS FORECAST REPORT FOR EASTSIDE OF IVAN’S EYEWALL

HURRICANE CATEGORY: 4 (PRESENTLY LOWER CAT 4)

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE:
07:00 AM - 931MB(I)….27.49 (D) INCHES (ESTIMATED FROM RECON FURTHER ANALYSIS)
04:00 PM - 933MB(I)….27.55 (D) INCHES (RECON READING)<<------
01:00 PM - 939MB(I)….27.73 (S) INCHES (*)
10:00 AM - 939MB(I)….27.73 (S) INCHES (*)
07:00 AM - 939MB(I)….27.73 (I) INCHES(ESTIMATED)
01:00 AM - 934MB(I)….27.58 (I) INCHES(RECON READING)<<--------
…..(*) NO NHC RECON UPDATE - NEW DATA THIS AFTERNOON
***7 th MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN U.S History (D) (PRIOR 13/ 7 / 5 / 3)
***IVAN’S PRESENT RECON PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THE PRESSURES OF HURRICANE
***CARLA-’61 AND HURRICANE HUGO-‘89

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 135 MPH (D) (LOWER CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE)
GUSTS TO: 160 (D)
…PREVIOUS 140/170 MAX/GUSTS
>>>NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS NHC FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL
>>>EYEWALL AND VISIBILITY OF THE EYE REMAINS WELL FORMED AND HIGHLY VISIBLE

HIGHEST DIRECT HIT PROBABILITIES
PANAMA CITY FL….15>>>
PENSACOLA FL.........45>>>>>>>>>>>>>MOST SEVERE STORM SURGE & WINDS
MOBILE AL................59<<EYE>>>>>>^^^EAST-DIRTY SIDE OF HURRICANE
GULFPORT MS..........52<<<<<<<<<<
BURAS LA..................40<<<<<<
NEW ORLEANS LA...16<<<(D from 20 / 21 / 26, last 3 projections)
---------

KEYNOTES – 4/5:00 PM CDT - 09.15.04

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF
THE EYE. IT APPEARS THAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED
BUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...PERHAPS 150 MILES OR SO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
>>>TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS HIGH, INCREASING STORM SURGE DAMAGE<<<
...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. (I) (PREVIOUS 260)

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS 150 MILES INLAND ALONG ITS PATH.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. SOME
TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

==================
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATES FOR TUESDAY, 9/14/04 – Many Good Ivan Photos Here
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=825852&mesg_id=825852
==================

[GOPAgainstGW]

61. Multi-Projection Track Map

[GOPAgainstGW]

62. You Think Ivan Isn’t One Bad Arse Hurricane – Check This Out!!!

Ivan Maximum Hit/Storm Surge Area - OffShore Seas Forecast

If you don't think Ivan is extremely powerful read on!

Mobile Alabama to West Florida Panhandle - OffShores Seas Forecast
Maximum Hurricane Ivan Projected Hit Area/Storm Surge - East of Eyewall
Maximum Seas: 1:00-2:00 AM 9/16/04
SHORT TERM FORECAST VALID to 2am 9/16/2004

Mobile, Alabama Bay to West Florida Panhandle Bouys Forecast:
1. Directly South of Mobile Bay: Buoy for 30.0º N / 88.0º W
Seas: SSE 42 to 62 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 24 to 33 knots
Surf: 38 - 77 ft faces along shores exposed to SSE swell (if any)

2. Southeast-1 Bouy for 30.0º N / 87.75º W
Seas: SSE 53 to 80 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 41 to 56 knots
Surf: 49 - 99 ft faces along shores exposed to SSE swell (if any)

3. Southeast-2: Buoy for 30.0º N / 87.5º W
Seas: SSE 60 to 91 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 58 to 79 knots
Surf: 56 - 111 ft faces along shores exposed to SSE swell (if any)

4. Southeast-3: (Behind #2-Close in Shore) Buoy for 30.25º N / 87.5º W
>>>MAXIMUM PROJECTED HIT AREA<<<
Seas: SSE 69 to 103 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SE 54 to 73 knots
Surf: 63 - 127 ft faces along shores exposed to SSE swell (if any)

5. Southeast-4 Buoy for 30.25º N / 87.25º W
Seas: S 65 to 97 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SE 56 to 76 knots
Surf: 59 - 119 ft faces along shores exposed to S swell (if any)

6. SOuthweas-5 Buoy for 30.25º N / 87.0º W
Seas: S 60 to 90 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 58 to 78 knots
Surf: 55 - 110 ft faces along shores exposed to S swell (if any)

7. Southeast-6 Buoy for 30.25º N / 86.75º W
Seas: S 53 to 80 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SE 55 to 74 knots
Surf: 49 - 98 ft faces along shores exposed to S swell (if any)

8. Southeast-7 Buoy for 30.0º N / 86.25º W
Seas: SSW 40 to 60 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 54 to 73 knots
Surf: 35 - 71 ft faces along shores exposed to SSW swell (if any)

9. Southeast-8 Buoy for 30.0º N / 86.0º W
Seas: SSW 35 to 53 feet at 15 seconds
Winds: SSE 49 to 66 knots
Surf: 31 - 62 ft faces along shores exposed to SSW swell (if any)

Complied Source: US Navy and CCSI

[Dover]

71. Geeeeezus! Waves as tall as a six story building!! YIKES!

God have mercy....

[GOPAgainstGW]

72. I have data from a bouy station Ivan went over. Unreal 52 ft waves AND

massive pressure drop. Something else! Will post it tomorrow.

[GOPAgainstGW]

63. Latest Hurricane Ivan Imagery - 1

[GOPAgainstGW]

64. Ivan Imagery - 2

[GOPAgainstGW]

65. Ivan Imagery - 2a (Ivan has redeveloped a very strong eye again!

[GOPAgainstGW]

66. Latest Ivan High Resolution - 3

[GOPAgainstGW]

67. HQ Ivan Eye Resolution - 4

[GOPAgainstGW]

69. HR - Latest Eye CloseUp