NOAA - HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A - 7 AM CDT

[Swamp Rat]

WTNT34 KNHC 151135
TCPAT4
BULLETIN

HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2004

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ITS APPROACH TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO WEST OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO
YANKEETOWN FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IVAN WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH IVAN.

ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS HURRICANE IVAN
APPROACHES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N... 87.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 939 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/151135.shtml?

******
Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
(Swamp Rat Recommends: GOES Storm Floater 2, Water Vapor Image Loop)
*****
New Orleans traffic cams:
http://www.nola.com/traffic/cams

[Wilber_Stool]

1. 1015 Z

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. Wow, it's about 9:30 here in Central Florida and it's sunny outside.

The gods have spared us!

[Renew Deal]

5. That hurricane looks perfect.

It's "beautiful"

[The Backlash Cometh]

6. Looks like the inside of a snail shell.

*

[Swamp Rat]

Yes, and we will be in the belly in a few hours.

I must sleep before all Hell breaks loose here.

[bemildred]

8. Spiral Galaxy, nt

[whatelseisnew]

2. link to ramsdis loop

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html

[Olive]

3. Another thread very interesting...

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/thread-view.asp?threadid=15143&start=226

[livinginphotographs]

7. Wow.

I used to live in Morgan City when I was a little kid, and used to go to the beach at Grand Isle all the time. I hope this thing goes easy on them down there...

[RT Atlanta]

9. In ATL...

It's cloudy and windy as we're receiving some of the outside bands of the storm - amazing how large and forceful Mother Nature can be.