http://www.iht.com/articles/538725.htmlShowdown over Iranian nukes
Ian Bremmer IHT Tuesday, September 14, 2004
NEW YORK It is tempting to believe that the threat of international crisis is suspended in the months preceding the U.S. presidential election. But conflict over Iran's nuclear ambitions may not wait until November.
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This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, began a series of meetings to discuss what inspectors have and haven't found in Iran. At the meeting's opening session, Iran declared its impatience with UN inspections of its nuclear program and announced that its agreement with three European states to halt uranium enrichment would soon come to an end.
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Iran is emboldened to press for relief from scrutiny because the energy agency report is ambiguous - it suggests there is no hard evidence that Iran is manufacturing nuclear weapons even if there are clear areas of inconsistency in Iran's reporting that lend suspicion to claims about its intentions.
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In the absence of irrefutable evidence, the Europeans can be expected to seek a diplomatic solution to the standoff. The United States has already announced its desire to seek a confrontation in the UN Security Council.
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