STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 27 September

[ozymandius]

Monday September 27, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 115
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 36
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 290 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 344 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 557
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1040
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 24, 2004

Dow... 10,047.24 +8.34 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq... 1,879.48 -6.95 (-0.37%)
S&P 500... 1,110.11 +1.75 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.03% +0.00 (+0.07%)
Gold future... 409.70 -2.70 (-0.66%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Review of Buy and Hold

Earlier this year we set up two portfolios that were based on the Buy and Hold methods outlined in Michael O’Higgins’ book, Beating The Dow. The intent was to set these portfolios up based on nothing more than the methods outlined in the book. Then, I was going to use the exact same two methods to set up two more portfolios when the technical picture turned positive. Well, so far the technical picture has not turned positive, so these two portfolios have never been set up. I will do so once the market reaches a significant cycle low and the Dow theory supports such an opinion. Until then, we can monitor these methods without the aid of technical timing.

On January 30, 2004 we set up a portfolio of 10 stocks that were based on a Graham and Dodd method. See the January 30, 2004 Dow Report for more details. In this method Mr. O’Higgins suggests that you look at the book values for each of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. He would then pick the 10 stocks with the lowest book values for his portfolio. According to Mr. O’Higgins, this method yielded a return of 1,283.39% between 1973 and 1991, while the DJIA itself yielded a return of 559.31%. This method clearly “Beats The Dow” during this bull market period. But, what about now?

...more with charts...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[AIJ Alom]

2. Interesting note.

When Kerry spoke the truth on Friday, the Dow went up 30 points. Then when Bush lied later in the day, the Dow went down 30 points. Are Dow investors weary of Bush ?

[ozymandius]

3. A good example of the Piehole Effect.

By the way, you will never hear this on Fox News.

We have observed that when Bush opens his piehole during the trading day, the averages will drop. Hence the name.

[AIJ Alom]

4. HAH ! That makes sense ! Fraud a'coming !

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.48 Change +0.08 (+0.09%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH72735_2004-09-27_12-06-10_L27395215

FOREX-Dollar keeps yen under pressure, euro steady

LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The dollar touched a six-week high against the yen on Monday as weakness in Tokyo's stock market and strength in global oil prices kept the Japanese currency on the defensive.

The euro shuttled in a narrow range against the dollar after an influential German business confidence survey did little to alter the prognosis of a muted recovery in the euro zone's biggest economy.

The yen took a cabinet reshuffle in Tokyo in its stride, with the main economic ministers retaining their posts. But worries about high oil prices and a fall in the Nikkei stock average for a seventh straight session was enough to push it lower.

"Oil prices are having a big bearing on people's expectations about how long this slower growth period is going to last," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon in London.

The dollar rose almost half a percent to 111.27 yen <JPY=> in the European session, extending this month's gains to its highest since mid-August. The euro rose by a similar margin to 136.35 yen <EURJPY=> but held below five-week highs above 136.50 scaled last week.

Japan's dependence on oil imports makes the country's economy and its currency highly vulnerable to rising energy costs. Tokyo's Nikkei stock market average slipped 0.33 percent to record its longest losing streak since December 2002.

...more...

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/09/27/ap1561082.html

Update 3: Crude Prices Push Over $49 a Barrel

Crude oil prices pushed above $49 a barrel on Monday, reflecting concerns about supply in key producers and Hurricane Ivan's impact on oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Prices were strengthened by reports of clashes in Saudi Arabia between government forces and suspected al-Qaida-linked militants and mortar attacks on the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad.

Light crude for November delivery was trading up 24 cents at $49.12 a barrel in electronic trading in advance of the opening on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded as high as $49.39 earlier in the day.

The November contract settled last Friday at a new high of $48.88 per barrel in New York. That was 18 cents above the previous peak Nymex settlement price of $48.70, set on Aug. 19. Adjusting for inflation, today's prices are still about $8 below the level reached just before the first Gulf War.

<snip>

Also Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, admitted that its decision to boost production by a million barrels per day from November has failed to calm the market.

...more...

report for today:

Sep 27 10:00 AM
New Home Sales Aug
report -
briefing.com anticipates 1200K
market anticipates 1150K
last report 1134K
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

20. New Homes Sales Report in

10:00am 09/27/04 U.S. AUG. NEW HOME SALES UP 9.4% TO 1.184 MILLION PACE

10:00am 09/27/04 U.S. AUG. NEW HOME INVENTORY FALLS TO 4.2 MONTHS SUPPLY

10:00am 09/27/04 U.S. AUG NEW HOME INVENTORY 25-YEAR HIGH OF 404,000

10:00am 09/27/04 U.S. AUG. MEDIAN NEW HOME SALES PRICE UP 9.7% Y-O-Y

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38257.4168055556-821793663&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Aug. new home sales rise 9.4% to 1.184 mln

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Sales of new homes in the United States jumped 9.4 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.184 million, the largest percentage gain in nearly four years, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. The number of new homes for sale increased from 396,000 to 404,000, the highest in 25 years. The inventory represents 4.2 months' supply at the August sales rate, down from 4.4 months in July. The median price of a new home sold in August fell from $214,400 to $208,900, the lowest in eight months. The median price has increased 9.7 percent in the past year.

[UpInArms]

6. Kopper expected on stand today in Enron trial

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2814281

Michael Kopper, the first of three former Enron executives who have pleaded guilty and are expected to testify in the ongoing Enron criminal trial, is scheduled to take the stand this morning.

"This is important. It will be the first insight from a senior person at Enron describing the inner circle," said Jacob Frenkel, a Washington, D.C.-based former federal prosecutor and Securities and Exchange Commission lawyer.

Kopper, 39, was a protégé of ex-Enron Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow. In August 2002, Kopper was the first Enron executive to plead guilty and to agree to cooperate with the government. His sentence will ride in part on how much prosecutors say he has cooperated.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. Investors Watching Consumers' Jitters

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Business/ap20040926_797.html

NEW YORK Sept. 26, 2004 — When nervous consumers hold on to their money, Wall Street gets nervous about profits. So the question investors hope will be answered in the coming week is, just how nervous are consumers these days?

Two separate readings on consumers are due the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index and there's reason to believe Americans aren't willing to spend as freely as businesses would like.




First, the recent surge in oil prices, which set a new all-time record high on Friday, has been seen widely as a kind of tax on consumers, reducing the amount of money they spend on goods and services.

That, in turn, threatens corporate profits at a time when companies themselves are dealing with higher energy costs. And if consumers aren't spending money to begin with, it's harder for companies to raise prices to compensate. Thus, profits shrink.

Economists have forecast a slight rise in consumer sentiment in both reports. Should the data come in lower than expected indeed, if they don't far surpass the forecasts the market reaction is likely to be negative.

<snip>

Wall Street expects the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, to climb to 100.0 in September from 98.2 in August. Likewise, economists expect the Michigan index, due out Friday, to rise from 95.8 in August to 96.5 this month.

Other reports this week include a Commerce Department report Monday on new home sales. Economists expect a slight rise in home sales, as historically low interest rates outweigh consumer nervousness.

...more...

[llmart]

39. "Rise in gasoline prices seen as tax on consumers"

Ha. Ha. Kerry should use THAT line. All them anti-tax folks are too stupid to see that taxes can be a good thing, if they're used for the right things. Taxes to support a bloated military establishment do very little to stimulate the economy, while taxes to support schools, libraries, repairing and replacing infrastructure, etc. create jobs (mine for one.)

[UpInArms]

8. this weekend's interesting articles

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6333578

EU Court to Revisit WorldCom's Deals

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A European Union court is set to rule this week on a $120 billion deal MCI-WorldCom made during the height of the go-go years that still resonates today.

WorldCom, since then bankrupted and reborn as MCI, has challenged the EU's decision in 2000 to block its acquisition of rival long-distance carrier Sprint, which was also rejected by the U.S. Justice Department.

The deal was abandoned soon after but the company is seeking to rid itself of a bad precedent that could dog it for years before the European Commission should it attempt future acquisitions.

The decision by the Court of First Instance in Luxembourg comes four years later -- after the end of the boom years, and after WorldCom's former chief executive, Bernie Ebbers, has been indicted for fraud. He has pleaded not guilty.

When the Commission, the EU's executive, blocked the deal in 2000 it feared European consumers would be "dependent on the new company for universal Internet connectivity." The ruling, however, will turn on a technicality.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6334654

Fannie CEO May Not Withstand Challenge

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The vaunted political and financial skills of Fannie Mae Chief Executive Franklin Raines may not be enough to save him professionally after a scathing regulatory report last week detailed pervasive accounting lapses at the mortgage finance company.

The regulatory agency's report places blame most squarely on Chief Financial Officer Timothy Howard for the problems. But responsibility may ultimately fall on Raines, a former White House budget office director in the Clinton administration who appears on handicappers' short lists for Treasury secretary if Democrat John Kerry is elected president in November.

"If you look at what major corporations are doing, where there are widespread failures relating to accounting practices, both the CEO's and the CFO's heads roll," said Jacob Frenkel, a former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement lawyer and federal prosecutor.

When sibling mortgage finance enterprise Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) became embroiled in an accounting scandal resulting in a $5 billion earnings restatement in 2003, the chief executive at the time, Leland Brendsel, was forced into retirement. The board's first choice to replace him, Gregory Parseghian, was also forced out for his role in the accounting irregularities.

...more...

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6331250

US regulator says Fannie Mae resisted probe-report

WASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was cooperating with a federal probe of its accounting, but its regulator said the company was so reluctant that subpoenas and help from the Justice Department were needed, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.

Armando Falcon Jr., director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, the office that oversees Fannie Mae, told a member of Congress about the problems in a letter earlier this month, the Post wrote.

In the letter, Falcon told Rep. Richard Baker, a Louisiana Republican who chairs the subcommittee that has been seeking tougher oversight of Fannie Mae, that subpoenas had to be issued after the regulator "encountered problems" dealing with the company, the Post reported.

Earlier this week, a government review found Fannie Mae used improper accounting to smooth earnings volatility in what has been the second bookkeeping drama to grip the mortgage financing industry in less than 18 months.

...more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/26/business/yourmoney/26view.html

Whoever Wins, More Taxes May Be the Only Way Out

IT'S often forgotten that President Ronald Reagan signed a bill to raise taxes in the early 1980's after first cutting them. President George H. W. Bush abandoned his "read my lips" pledge and raised taxes in 1990. Could Republicans soon be in a similar position again?

It would hardly seem so after their victory in Congress last week, when they extended a big part of President Bush's tax cuts worth about $146 billion over 10 years. Since taking office in 2001, President Bush has pushed through tax cuts valued at about $1.9 trillion.

But it is worth asking where things go from here. If President Bush is re-elected, he and the Republicans face a big agenda, including an unfinished war in Iraq, and virtually all of his tax cuts will be financed with borrowed money. Unless the government defaults on its debt, that money will eventually have to be repaid.

Faster economic growth will not do the trick. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office already assumes that the economy will grow at a solid pace in the years ahead and that tax revenues will climb even if President Bush's tax cuts are made permanent.

But if military spending in Iraq continues, even at lower levels, and President Bush prevents the alternative minimum tax from raising taxes on some 30 million families, the budget office estimated that federal deficits from now through 2014 would total $3.5 trillion.

Federal interest payments alone - the "debt tax," as Democrats are fond of saying - would climb to $402 billion in 2014 and amount to 2.2 percent of the gross domestic product. Measured against the size of the economy, those deficits and interest burdens would be smaller that those of the 1980's and early 1990's. But they would be occurring just when Social Security and Medicare entitlements are expected to soar as a result of baby boomers' retirement.

...more...

[ozymandius]

16. What wonder as we watch events dovetail.

Snowjob is calling for a Fannie Mae regulator. I wonder what motivates him to say that? A modicum of integrity? Fear over a collapse that is beyond the control of the PPT?

Now we have a return to the 1984 campaign in which Reagan's disasterous fiscal policies could only be addressed with tax increases. Only we know where honesty landed Walter Mondale. Then Reagan and Bush Sr. raised taxes anyway.

[54anickel]

19. Noland goes into the GSE dilemma quite a bit in last week's Credit

Bubble Bulletin. It's pretty long. The entire Bulletin is pretty interesting, and unnerving this time.

http://www.prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp

snip from the end of the article>

Disregard of FASB Decisions



“Like many entities, Fannie Mae engages in active efforts to influence the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s (“FASB”) rule making decisions, with a goal of advancing the accounting positions it views as most favorable… SFAS 133 was no exception…Fannie Mae played an active role in lobbying the FASB… In some instances, despite entreaties to the FASB by Fannie Mae for a desired derivative accounting treatment, the FASB rejected the requested treatment. At times, even though the FASB had rejected the requested treatment, Fannie Mae disregarded the FASB’s guidance and accounted for their transactions the way they had originally proposed. This sheds some light on the culture and attitude within Fannie Mae – a determination to do things “their way.”

From our review of documents, emails, testimony and initial interviews with Fannie Mae personnel, OFHEO has concluded that there has been an intentional effort by management to misapply the accounting rules as specified in the standard in order to minimize earnings volatility and simplify operations.

As of December 31, 2003, the balance in AOCI (“accumulated other comprehensive income” – where declines in derivative market values have been segregated to avoid impacting reported earnings/retained earnings) reflects $12.2 billion in deferred losses relating to cash flow hedges. Furthermore, carrying value adjustments of liabilities relating to fair value hedges amounted to $7.2 billion as of that date. The matters noted herein with respect to improper application of hedge accounting leads OFHEO to question the validity of the amounts reflected in AOCI… For hedges which do not quality for hedge accounting, fair value changes should be reflected in earnings in the period in which the value change occurred… Additionally, the possible reclassification of these amounts into retained earnings could have a substantial impact on Fannie Mae’s compliance with regulatory capital requirements. In order to determine the actual impact of the matters discussed herein, a substantial investment of resources and management’s commitment will be required.”

And from Today’s American Banker (Rob Blackwell): “The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight has taken several swings in the past few days at Fannie Mae’s management, internal controls, and accounting, but it is too soon to tell whether they connected. On Wednesday the agency issued a 211-page report accusing Fannie of manipulating its earnings by misapplying accounting rules for amortization and derivatives hedging. Accounting experts were still scouring the document Thursday uncertain whether OFHEO had found evidence that generally accepted accounting principles had been violated or whether Fannie had merely made judgment calls that its regulator disagreed. There seemed little doubt that the policy impact of the report would be blunted, as highly technical and hard-to-read descriptions of Fannie’s alleged accounting sins proved difficult to simplify or explain… Indeed, how serious Fannie’s problems are may not be clear until the Securities and Exchange Commission weighs in, and that could be a long while (“that process could take three to five years to complete”)”

Ironically, the Great Mortgage Finance Bubble has of late attracted myriad sources of liquidity (as is the nature of markets during “blow-offs”), to the point that the general mortgage market was this week content to brush off the systemic ramifications for the unfolding battle over Fannie’s accounting and management practices. Yet it is becoming increasingly apparent that when the next period of “deleveraging” and systemic stress does develop, both Fannie and Freddie will be operating with considerably less flexibility and market power. This is a most-important development with respect to Financial Fragility. The prospect of - after an historic period of “blow-off” excess - the marketplace losing its coveted Buyers of First and Last Resort is a momentous and disconcerting development.

lots more...

[UpInArms]

27. Fannie reaches accord with regulator

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDF8606E8%2D1F36%2D4E50%2D8EFB%2DC81CB9415379%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Beleaguered mortgage agency Fannie Mae agreed Monday with its regulator to create a 30 percent capital surplus within 270 days and review internal accounting controls.

Fannie (FNM: news, chart, profile) also agreed with its regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, to protect its 18 percent capital surplus, adopt new accounting policies and report any changes to the regulator.

The moves follow reports from the office of a "cookie jar" fund to hide expenses, ratings downgrades and a double-digit stock-price plunge. Fannie Mae also made an SEC filing that signaled its top three executives are under scrutiny. See full story.

Shares of Fannie rose 2.2 percent to $66.95 in early Monday trade.

Last week, Fannie Mae shares fell about 15 percent.

Earlier Monday, analysts at Morgan Stanley downgraded Fannie's shares to "equal weight" from "overweight."

...more...

[54anickel]

29. Gotta ask -

Are these simply words of appeasement to calm a jittery market and give them "warm fuzzies"?

How realistic is that 30% surplus in 270 days in an environment of rising rates? (HA! 270 days, 9 months - before the labor pains start? - Anyone foreseeing some "morning sickness coming?)

Just how close did we come to those "Economic Implications" anyway?

[UpInArms]

30. Fannie Mae to sell $6.0 billion in bills

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6342596

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the largest U.S. home funding company, said on Monday it plans to sell $4.5 billion of three-month benchmark bills due Dec. 29, 2004, and $1.5 billion of six-month bills due March 30, 2005, on Wednesday in a Dutch auction.

In a Dutch auction, or uniform price auction, successful bidders pay only the price of the lowest accepted bid rather than the actual price as in a conventional multiple-price auction.

...more...

[54anickel]

33. Fire sale? n/t

[54anickel]

36. Fannie Mae Takes New Approach in Crisis (Crisis?)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52625-2004Sep26.html

Fannie Mae, one of Washington's largest and most influential companies, is facing a serious crisis. Federal regulators have accused the mortgage-finance giant of cooking its books, in part to make room for huge bonuses for its top executives.

When confronted with emergencies in the past -- legislative efforts to tax the company or to end federal ties that give it a competitive advantage -- Fannie Mae has used a brass-knuckles approach. Its political machine, comprised of hired lobbyists, executives and directors of both political parties and grassroots groups nurtured by donations from its foundation, has long been able to run over its adversaries.

But this time, Fannie Mae is acting differently. While whispering to Wall Street that all the fuss is nothing more than a difference over accounting interpretations, the company's board has commissioned an independent probe led by former Sen. Warren Rudman (R-N.H.), making it clear that the directors want to put the matter behind the firm even if it means throwing some top executives overboard.

"I don't think they have ever faced a crisis like this. Political muscle is not going to fix this problem," said Washington attorney Bill Lightfoot, who tangled with Fannie Mae over tax issues while a member of the D.C. Council.

snip>

Fannie's board (part of which has been appointed by the President of the United States) and its former executives represent a bipartisan Who's Who of Washington's elite. The current board includes Kenneth M. Duberstein, a lobbyist and former chief of staff to President Ronald Reagan; Frederick Malek, an investor and former aide to President Richard Nixon; and Korologos, a former secretary of labor under Reagan. A recent former board member is Stephen Friedman, who is President George W. Bush's top economic adviser. Robert Zoellick, the current U.S. trade representative, is a former general counsel of Fannie Mae.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. House panel to probe Fannie Mae on Oct. 6

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38257.4837152778-821800714&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- A subcommittee of the House Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing on Fannie Mae's (FNM) management and accounting on Oct. 6 at 10 a.m. ET. The hearing will be called "The OFHEO Report: Allegations of Accounting and Management Failure at Fannie Mae."

[ozymandius]

9. US dominance may have peaked

One of the very noticeable trends in global fund management has been the ascendancy of US-based global investment firms. Increasingly firms like Capital, Fidelity and Wellington dominate the shortlists of institutional investors looking for global equity managers

This has always been the case in North America. However, whereas in the past an institutional investor would tend to choose a global fund management company headquartered in its country, the tendency now is to pick a US company.

-cut-

Looking more deeply into this performance advantage, a number of issues emerge: Past performance may be due in part to the fact that US investors were more confident about the US than non-US investors and so made the critically important decision not to underweight the US during the boom period for its stock market.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1106&ncid=1106&e=8&u=/ft/20040926/bs_ft/abba72a60fdc11d9ba6200000e2511c8

[ozymandius]

10. Do Bond Investors Buy Into The Fed's View Of Economy?

At its meeting last week, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) underscored its belief that the recovery is firming. But the bond market seems to have its doubts, sending long-term Treasury yields to pre-summer lows.

Echoing the words of Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) earlier this month, Fed policy-makers said in their after-meeting statement Tuesday that the economy seems to have regained some "traction."

-cut-

For now, the bond market views the economy as "growing modestly, but well below levels that would create inflationary pressures down the road," he (Mat Johnson, director of strategy and economics with Think Equity Partners) said. "And with the Fed saying they will continue to remove their accommodativeness at a steady pace, that's just lending more credence to keeping inflation in check."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1471&ncid=1203&e=6&u=/ibd/20040924/bs_ibd_ibd/2004924feature

[ozymandius]

11. Stocks Seen Lower as Oil Hits Record High

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were poised to open lower on Monday as oil prices hit a record high, fuelingconcerns that energy costs will squeeze economic growth.

-cut-

Adding to the grim mood on Wall Street on Monday was reports of damage from Hurricane Jeanne.

As Florida recovers from its fourth hurricane in six weeks, it is increasingly apparent that this year's unprecedented tropical storm season is hurting corporate earnings. Earnings warnings are on the rise this month, and more than a third of them have been pegged to the storms, according to Reuters Estimates.

Meanwhile, oil prices moved toward $50 a barrel as worries about the stability of supplies from Iraq (news - web sites), Nigeria and Russia compounded concern over low fuel stocks ahead of the winter.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[UpInArms]

12. NY crude oil tops record $49.40 a barrel

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={A30DAB60-D905-4CAC-9D9B-CA5F0AFADE06}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- The benchmark New York NYMEX crude oil contract hit a record above $49.40 a barrel early Monday, breaking through levels set in late August amid concerns over disruptions to global supplies in the Middle East as well as Nigeria at a time of low stocks. The contract was last up 56 cents at $49.44 a barrel.

[ozymandius]

23. Crude Sets Record, Nigeria Concerns Mount

With thanks to RedEarth who posted this in the LBN forum.


LONDON (Reuters) - London crude prices hit record highs on Monday as Nigeria emerged as the new focus of worries about supply security on world oil markets.

-cut-

Concerns over Nigeria, OPEC (news - web sites)'s number five producer, compounded worries about supplies from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iraq (news - web sites).

"All these factors create apprehension in the market and reinforce the view that we're on a knife's edge in terms of supply and demand," said Daniel Hynes, industry analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=568&u=/nm/20040927/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc&printer=1

[UpInArms]

32. N.Y. Crude Oil Rises to Record $49.74 on Nigerian Supply Threat

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a41EMn2ggfio&refer=us

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record $49.74 a barrel in New York on concern that rebels may target output in Nigeria as U.S. refiners struggle to build stockpiles after Hurricane Ivan slashed production and imports.

Royal Dutch/Shell Group's venture in Nigeria evacuated 235 workers from the Niger River delta Sept. 24 amid concern about clashes between government troops and militants. U.S. oil supplies fell 10 percent in the eight weeks ended Sept. 17, leaving them close to a 29-year low. The government agreed Friday to loan refiners barrels from emergency reserves.

``We'll keep marching inexorably higher,'' said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy risk management with Fimat USA in New York. ``Demand keeps growing while supply isn't keeping up, which leaves us with one direction to go.''

Crude oil for November delivery was up $1.68, or 1.7 percent, at $48.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:01 a.m. Prices reached $49.74, the highest since futures began trading in 1983. Oil futures were up 76 percent from a year earlier.

...more...

[ozymandius]

13. Treasuries Drop, Hope Fades for Fed Pause

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices eased on Friday, boosting short-term yields as hopes faded the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) might slow the pace of interest rates hikes.

Bond bulls were still hoping soft economic data could force policy-makers to reconsider. But minutes from the U.S. central bank's August meeting released on Thursday made it pretty clear they were determined to raise interest rates much further.

"Though the credit markets still want to disagree, the economy's path puts the odds on the side of the Federal Reserve," said an optimistic Ram Bhagavatula, Royal Bank of Scotland's chief economist for North America.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=4&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_bonds_dc&sid=95609877

[UpInArms]

15. The Neutral Fed Funds Rate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A49316-2004Sep25.html

The level at which the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate, the overnight rate charged between banks, neither stimulates nor slows economic growth.

• A rate that varies depending on economic conditions.

• A number that several Fed officials have recently pegged at between 3 percent and 5 percent.

• The subject of intense speculation as traders, investors and analysts guess how far the Fed will go in raising the rate over the next year or so.

• "A moving target," according to Fed Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto.

• A number that Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has declined to specify, saying, "When we arrive at neutral, we will know it."

[54anickel]

18. So, we won't know 'til we get there? HA! Seems more appropriate

to use the old saying, "Can't get there from here".

[UpInArms]

14. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures market remains on the defensive with traders paying attention to oil prices, which are nearing $50/bbl... latter is feeding concerns about an economic slowdown, and thus, has kept buyers on the sidelines this morning... losses should be modest in scope, but look for the cash market to begin the day on a downward note

8:53AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0.

8:29AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Little change since the last futures update (08:02 ET), which means the cash market remains poised for a modestly lower start... Walgreen (WAG) beat by a penny, but won't have broader market impact; look for other drug store cos. like CVS, RAD, and LDG to draft off the response to the WAG report

8:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Negative bias in the futures market is contributing to an expectation that the cash market will start the session on a negative note... Stubbornly high oil prices and some cautious commentary on tech prospects - Morgan Stanley downgrading semi sector to In-Line from Attractive, Prudential cutting telecom equip. sector to Neutral from Favorable, and Merrill Lynch issuing cautious statements regarding end market demand for Cisco (CSCO) - have weighed on sentiment

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends last week's breakout below the 25% retracement level of the August- September rally crossing at 1411.71. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1393.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1420.75 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The December NASDAQ 100 was down 5.50 pt. at 1399 as of 5:47 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 25% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 1115.59. If December extends last week's decline, the 38% retracement level crossing at 1105.25 then the 40-day moving average crossing at 1102.56 are December's next downside targets. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1119.34 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

17. 9:33 EST markets are open

Dow 10,028.36 -18.88 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,870.51 -8.97 (-0.48%)
S&P 500 1,107.48 -2.63 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.016% -0.015

[ozymandius]

22. losses deepen at 10:04

Dow 10,017.37 -29.87 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,866.73 -12.75 (-0.68%)
S&P 500 1,106.56 -3.55 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.005% -0.026
NYSE Volume 169,941,000
Nasdaq Volume 209,087,000

[UpInArms]

24. 10:08 EST redder and blather

Dow 10,005.21 -42.03 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq 1,863.77 -15.71 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,104.97 -5.14 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.006% -0.025

10:00AM: The bias weakens as selling materializes in most sectors... Tech, brokerage, biotech, homebuilding, and airline have dropped more than 1% and locked the major indices in negative territory... Basic material, telecom service, industrial, and retail are some of the other large industry groups showing losses... Currently, the only gainer is energy, and that is due to the spike in crude oil to $49.68/bbl... Separately, August New Home sales were just released and came in at 1.184 mln (consensus of 1.155 mln)... So far, there has been little response in the equity market...SOX -1.4, NYSE Adv/Dec 876/1911, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 690/1714

9:45AM: Stock market takes its cue from last week and the action seen overseas this morning - both of which were marked by large losses... The tech sector has again been the target of cautious analyst commentary, with Morgan Stanley downgrading semiconductor to In-Line from Attractive and Prudential downgrading communication equipment to Neutral from Favorable... Oil has also been making headlines this morning - moving precariously close to the $50/bbl level as traders fret about the supply implications of a near record number of hurricanes in the Gulf Coast...

As a result, traders have opted to reduce exposure this morning...

[UpInArms]

21. Tiffany & Co. to open second China location in Shanghai

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38257.4128819444-821793162&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Tiffany & Co. (TIF) said Monday morning that it will open a new store in Shanghai's City Plaza, the company's second location in China. Tiffany has another store in Beijing, which was opened in 2001.

[54anickel]

25. Come on, everybody's doing it

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

“Now just breathe in and out for a minute,” a Fannie bull might say to Mr. Falcon if he could make him out amidst all that steam circling his head. And then that bull might mention John R. Grahama, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, individuals who are not trying to win a million dollars from Mavericks owner and terminal extrovert Mark Cuban on a reality TV show. Nope, those three are authors of a study called “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting” which has nothing to do with how much paper is used to print all those 10-Ks floating around, but is actually all about how far companies will go to “make the number.”

snip>

That’s right. This academic study, a study so comprehensive that it took three people to do it, is not about how companies fiddle around with accounts receivables and cookie jar reserves to improve the bottom line. No sir. This study finds that companies actually make (or don’t make) real-live spending decisions just to make earnings look better.

The study, which is based on more than 300 surveys and 20 interviews, found that smooth earnings were so darned attractive that 78% of executives would “give up economic value in exchange for them.” And 55% of managers would avoid kicking off a potentially profitable project if related expenses could result in an earnings miss. Six execs would trade their first born.

Here's what the authors mean: 80% of survey participants would cut discretionary spending on R&D, advertising and maintenance just to meet an earnings estimate. Eighty percent! That's a degree of consensus usually found only when Congress votes itself a raise.

Just how important is making the number? Here’s what the dynamic academic trio have to say:

snip>

But there is still enough earnings managing going on for CFO.com to report that accounting issues still dominate securities class action cases, even though the number of such lawsuits has fallen. CFO.com also finds that because executives still have the ability to influence earnings, more companies are tying incentive pay to free-cash flow. So there must be something to this earnings management businessness. At any rate, this new compensation scheme should give CFOs the eye-twitch as they try to meet the Street’s earnings and the board’s cash flow number.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Commodities ride China's coattails

http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/business/9770902.htm?1c

snip>

So far, however, the fears have generally not been borne out. Loan growth in China slowed by 7 percent from August 2003 to August 2004, and while inflation has remained strong, it has been below forecasts. China's consumer price index rose by an annualized rate of slightly more than 5 percent in August. Many analysts now say China's economy will grow 9 percent this year.

As a result, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading, a futures and options brokerage in Chicago, commodities and shares of mining companies around the world, which have posted sizable gains over the last two years, are still a solid long-term bet. "We're in an era of tremendous opportunity for commodities, and it's going to be one of the biggest sectors not for one year, but for five, 10 years," Flynn said.

Moreover, commodity companies do not have to deal with the same headaches as manufacturing or service businesses supplying China. After all, commodities like coal are tough to pirate, and their producers do not need to worry about winning over Chinese consumers to a brand name.

What's more, said Thomas K. McKissick, managing director at TCW Asset Management and lead manager of TCW's Galileo Large Cap Value fund, commodity prices have been so low for so long that even recent demand has not bolstered supply enough. "You were in a 20-year bear market for commodities," which reduced capacity, he said, noting that China still had little of its own manufacturing and transportation infrastructure in place.

Some analysts say a slight decline in Chinese demand may help commodities in the long run. According to Merrill Lynch's recent report on metals, "Some slowing in Chinese demand is good for the metals market, because high prices always lead to too much supply being brought on the market."

more...

[54anickel]

28. How will consumer confidence affect earnings?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20040926-1051-wallstreet-weekahead.html

Two separate readings on consumers are due – the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index – and there's reason to believe Americans aren't willing to spend as freely as businesses would like.

First, the recent surge in oil prices, which set a new all-time record high on Friday, has been seen widely as a kind of tax on consumers, reducing the amount of money they spend on goods and services.

That, in turn, threatens corporate profits at a time when companies themselves are dealing with higher energy costs. And if consumers aren't spending money to begin with, it's harder for companies to raise prices to compensate. Thus, profits shrink.

snip>

Hit with the rise in oil prices and a spate of third-quarter profit warnings and disappointing earnings, stocks fell sharply last week, nearing their early August lows. For the week, the Dow fell 2.3 percent, while the S&P the Nasdaq both lost 1.6 percent, marking Wall Street's worst overall week since early August.

ECONOMIC DATA:

Wall Street expects the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, to climb to 100.0 in September from 98.2 in August. Likewise, economists expect the Michigan index, due out Friday, to rise from 95.8 in August to 96.5 this month. :eyes: What are these folks smokin'?

[54anickel]

31. Delays Mount at Local Ports as Shipping Surges (Great, something ELSE

to have to worry about!)

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ports27sep27,1,383980.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Despite relief efforts, congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is getting worse as the holiday shipping season kicks into high gear.

At any given time in recent weeks, there have been as many as 83 vessels waiting to be unloaded — an international flotilla of cargo ships bigger than most of the world's navies.

Moreover, it is taking six to eight days to empty each of those ships, twice as long as when the ports are hosting their normal complement of 35 to 50 vessels.

Although no one is predicting empty shelves, the tie-up could thin the supply of some hot-selling items. And it's having other, more far-reaching consequences.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Foreign Tax Havens Costly to U.S., Study Says

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/27/business/worldbusiness/27tax.html

snip>

The study, to be published today in the trade journal Tax Notes, says that United States multinational corporations shifted $75 billion in domestic profits last year to no-tax and low-tax foreign havens like Bermuda and Ireland.

The study's author, Martin A. Sullivan, said that legal loopholes and tax credits could mean in theory that no taxes are owed to the United States government on the shifted income. But he wrote that the shifting is more likely to result in annual tax losses to federal coffers of $10 billion to $20 billion. He said yesterday that at least some of the transfer probably occurred through questionable tax shelters.

In a related study, published by Tax Notes earlier this month, Mr. Sullivan concluded that that profits reported by American multinational companies from their foreign subsidiaries, and not from their operations based in the United States, soared 68 percent since 1999, to $149 billion last year. The earlier study said that the rise in foreign earnings was not accompanied by any gain in real economic activity in the tax havens, suggesting that multinationals were increasingly using offshore tax shelters to shield earnings.

snip>

... His estimates of domestic profit-shifting and the corresponding tax losses are for earnings generated by the United States-based operations of American multinational companies, and not for earnings generated by their foreign subsidiaries in low-tax countries.

Under current United States tax laws, American companies can defer taxes on profits earned offshore as long as those profits are not returned to the United States. An updated study by J. P. Morgan Chase in June 2003 said that $650 billion held offshore by American corporations like Exxon Mobil and General Electric was waiting in accounts to be repatriated to the United States if proposed legislation enacting a highly reduced rate is enacted.

more...

[TrogL]

35. Looks like the DOW's worried about today's numbers

On the way in, the CBC was noting a number of reports due to be released. The Dow's descending at a linear rate at the moment (8:56 AM MDT) so it's not free-fall - yet.

What with the price of oil (the guy predicted $50) and the hurricanes (God speaks??) I can see people being worried.

[UpInArms]

37. 11:09 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,011.33 -35.91 (-0.36%)
Nasdaq 1,868.22 -11.26 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,105.49 -4.62 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 3.985% -0.046

11:00AM: Equities remain on the defensive with sector participation strong to the downside... Large groups such as financial and technology - which account for 36% of the S&P 500 on a market cap basis - have traveled lower by 0.6% or more, effectively squashing the chances of a rally... The Dow, however, has held above the psychologically-significant 10,000 level and kept widespread selling in check...

Investors remain concerned about the pace of economic growth - potentially curbed by the elevated price of crude oil - and the upcoming Q3 (Sept) earnings season, which has been highlighted by a large number of warnings... Reporting actually starts in full force next Thursday October 7 - with Alcoa (AA 31.31 +0.08)...NYSE Adv/Dec 894/2037, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 732/2011

dollar not so perky

Last trade 88.25 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

[54anickel]

38. Calm Before The Storm?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/raby/raby092504.html

After unprecedented growth in Technology during the 1990's, the strength of the economy seems to have ground to a halt. The growing concern of many in the finance industry is that the U.S. economy has stalled and we are facing a potential decline in the coming months.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has approved two quarter-point raises in interest rates since late-June, taking borrowing costs to 1.5% from a 46-year low of 1%. The Fed has said higher rates are needed to pre-empt inflationary pressures, and most forecasters expect further increases before the end of the year. While the FED had hoped that historically low interest rates would give a boost to the faltering economy by putting more money into the hands of individuals and businesses, this boost is yet to be seen.

Weak job growth has exacerbated the problem sending wages down. Hiring came to a near standstill last month, with a net gain of only 32,000 jobs, down from 66,000 in June, stunning economists who had expected seven times as many. With the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.9% and the ongoing outsourcing of US jobs, it seems an economic recovery is not in the near future.

The manufacturing of small toys, shoes, and other similar gadgets in China has been going on for some time. But it is important to be aware that the exportation of manufacturing jobs is evolving - rapidly. Go into any major retailer or call almost any customer service center and you'll become aware of the iceberg ahead of us. With call centers being set up in India and virtually everything being made in China, the reality is that the jobs being lost are not just industrial manufacturing jobs.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Sulphur and Cloven Hooves (Mogambo Rant)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty092204.html

- Let's start off, as we usually do, with a look at the Federal Reserve, mostly because that is the source of evil and misery, although those Harry Potter books don't even mention it, even in passing. If you want to know why I say this, I direct your attention to two sure-fire tell-tale signs, one being the faint, acrid smell of sulfur that permeates the Federal Reserve building, and the other is that all the people who work there wear shoes, which they do to keep you from seeing that they have cloven feet. I rest my case.

Well, we can't help but notice that Total Fed Credit jumped by another $4 billion last week. This is the ultimate measure of pure credit being created. When trying to decipher why they did this, perhaps it would be helpful to also note that the foreign central banks were unusually muted last week, and their Custody Holdings at the Fed were only up a piddling $450 million. This is a big decline for them, as they usually buy a four or nine billion dollar's worth at a crack. On the other hand, those foreigners may have been merely busy, as their own economies are still rolling around on the floor gagging and choking on the $327 billion of US government debt that their own central banks have crammed down their throats in the last twelve months.

But the American government, our bilious bastion of blowhard bastards and constant corruption, is still spending, spending, spending, and they need lots and lots of money, either borrowed or printed up fresh. But as we noted, the foreign central banks are showing a few more smarts than usual, which is up from zero smarts, and have apparently decided that loaning millions and billions and trillions of dollars to a nation of grubby, greedy deadbeat spendthrifts is not the best plan they ever came up with.

And, true to form, the American banks themselves decided that if the foreign central banks wouldn't act stupid, then they would heroically gobble up $6 billion of federal debt in one gulp, like a bunch of hyperactive college kids on Spring Break ("Chug! Chug!). They do this because banks think that they can thrive only by deliberately acting really, really stupid, and then requiring that the taxpayers bail them out of the bankrupting mess that they inevitably get themselves into by acting like that. This is known in standard textbooks around the world as Business As Usual In The Banking System (BAITBS). Well, it WOULD be in the textbooks if the government wasn't censoring it out.

more...



There's also this little article, which has a picture KoKo once wanted to see of the little lunatic.

Speaker slams Greenspan

http://cdapress.com/articles/2004/09/25/business/bus01.prt

[KoKo]

42. ROFL! The title alone! .....(eom)

[TrogL]

61. He hates liberals and he's a goldbug

thinking that ridiculous socialist dogma

immediately followed by a quote...

He then tells you what to do about this parlous [sic] state of affairs. "Trade your dollars for precious metals while your dollars are still worth something..."

[54anickel]

65. He "hates" nearly everyone. n/t

[TrogL]

72. Especially Democrats

This is typical Democrat insanity! I cannot understand how they cannot find, somewhere in the ranks of the Democrat Party, one guy who is not a gigantic lying idiot.

[KoKo]

73. He used to make some good points before he started bashing social

programs instituted by Democrats. Yet as "54" says...he really hates everyone. I sort of enjoy his insanity and most of us here get where he's coming from :D. I think he leans Libertarian along with his gold bugginess. But, he's correct about Greenspin...and his ravings about him are always worth a good chuckle.

[54anickel]

79. Aww, come on TrogL, gold-bugs ain't THAT bad. A little on the lunatic

fringe occasionally, but you make it sound like it's a bad thing. :evilgrin:

[TrogL]

81. I just wish their message would change a bit

Bad times, buy gold.
Good times, buy gold.
Uncertainty in the market, buy gold.
Market going up, buy gold.
Market going down, buy gold.
Dollar going down, buy gold.
Dollar going up, buy gold.

It gets a bit tiresome after awhile.

[54anickel]

41. On the edge?

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chapman_d/chapman_d_092704.html

On Wednesday September 22, 2004 the major indices (DJI, S&P 500) had their biggest moves in weeks. The fact that it should come to the downside should have been no surprise given the up move witnessed since the lows in mid-August and the numerous negative divergences that were showing up. That the drop should also have come on the same day that President Bush spoke to the United Nations giving them a speech more suited for a Republican Convention citing how strong the economy is and how Iraq is on the road to peace and democracy can only be termed as rather ironic.

Indeed the economy seems to be starting to head off in the opposite direction despite months, even years of the most stimulative monetary conditions we have ever seen in our 30 plus years in markets. Numerous other pundits have gone over the events of the past few days but they are worth repeating. Indeed it wasn't so much the economic news that sent the markets reeling but the spate of negative news coming out on companies that seemed to be everywhere in the economy.

A quick summary is in order. ...

snip>

And following on the heels of the negative profit picture came news on Thursday that Leading Economic Indicators fell for the third consecutive month. Earlier in the week while housing starts came in about expected, building permits fell by 5% indicating that future-housing activity may finally be slowing. Unemployment claims were also higher than expected reflecting what may be the a growing problem particularly in Florida and other hard hit hurricane states where many have lost their jobs because the business they were working for have been hit hard.

While the Federal Reserve raised the funds rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time as expected the big question on everyone's mind will now be whether that will be the last of the rate hikes. Given that all of this negative news is coming on the heels of very stimulative monetary conditions we wonder if that the US economy might finally be moving into the Japan phase where even virtually zero interest rates failed to lift them for years. US Treasury Bonds that were rallying to new highs earlier in the week finally reversed and were heading into negative territory for the week.

more...

[54anickel]

43. Couple of good articles linked at 321gold to Truthout

Somewhat related to the markets...

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/092404J.shtml

snip from the 2nd article>

Yet this president knew it would be difficult for Americans not to cheer the overthrow of a foreign dictator. He knew that much. This president and his supporters would seem to have a mind for only one thing - to take power, to remain in power, and to use that power for the sake of themselves and their friends.

A war will do that as well as anything. You become a wartime leader. The country gets behind you. Dissent becomes inappropriate. And so he does not drop to his knees, he is not contrite, he does not sit in the church with the grieving parents and wives and children. He is the president who does not feel. He does not feel for the families of the dead, he does not feel for the 35 million of us who live in poverty, he does not feel for the 40 percent who cannot afford health insurance, he does not feel for the miners whose lungs are turning black or for the working people he has deprived of the chance to work overtime at time-and-a-half to pay their bills - it is amazing for how many people in this country this president does not feel.

But he will dissemble feeling. He will say in all sincerity he is relieving the wealthiest 1 percent of the population of their tax burden for the sake of the rest of us, and that he is polluting the air we breathe for the sake of our economy, and that he is decreasing the quality of air in coal mines to save the coal miners' jobs, and that he is depriving workers of their time-and-a-half benefits for overtime because this is actually a way to honor them by raising them into the professional class.

And this litany of lies he will versify with reverences for God and the flag and democracy, when just what he and his party are doing to our democracy is choking the life out of it.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Cats, Reptiles and Recessions

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/rostenko092604.html

snip>

The writing's on the wall, folks. Long-term interest rates are falling. Retail sales are slumping. The consumer isn't making more money and the government is only making up job numbers. Are we in for another round of recession? Before you answer, consider that crude oil is approaching $50 again and one of these days it's going to surpass it. Oil shocks = recessions.

Of course, the economy is rarely that simple. If only there were one simple indicator that revealed the future. But we're not looking at rising fuel prices in isolation. There are plenty of other stressors in play as well, some of which have already been mentioned.

Another recession? I don't know. I don't know because decades into this business, I still don't know what the hell a recession is because the clowns who identify them don't know themselves. Remember the last recession that was a recession but then after it was over it turns out it wasn't really a recession? Go figure.

I'm a simple guy. I value the obvious and common sense far more so than statistical mumbo-jumbo and silly data spewed by academicians who never had to make a living in the real world. Common sense makes one thing abundantly clear to me: we're not gaining traction.

Recession, depression, I don't know. But economic boom times accompanied by fat stock market gains? Yeah. And Cat Stevens is packing nukes in his violin case...

[54anickel]

46. Get Religion With Secular Bears

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/difalco092104.html

Most of us Americans don't know or even care if we are in a "bull market" or not. The origin of the terms "bull market" and "bear market" to denote rising and falling price trends, respectively, remains murky. Perhaps you should use the simple mnemonic: you eat a bull, and a bear eats you. My only prediction in this article is that sooner or later you will care more than you do now about market and economic issues impacting your lifestyle.

While a few of you readers already knew this market jargon before reading the above, even you should know how loosely those terms are used in the popular media. Bull and bear markets are usually associated with stocks. These words, however, can refer to any other investment category, such as bonds, gold, real estate, economic sector equities, currency, and collectibles such as art. The problem with using "bull market" and "bear market" derives from the vagueness of the timescale. As usual with the short attention span of the talking heads on the financial TV news, the unspoken assumption is that the time scale refers to the smallest cycle used in the technical financial literature. The briefest price trends, also known as "cyclical" bull and bear markets, to which investors (as opposed to traders) pay attention, last several months to a few years. For example, the US stock market experienced a cyclical bear market from early 2000 to late 2002, and a cyclical bull market from late 2002 to 2004(5?). Generally, up markets are longer than down markets. Why? The human experience shows us that destruction is easier than construction, and this truth applies no differently to macroeconomic institutions.

So if a cyclical market is the shortest price trend important to investors, what lasts longer? The terminology is "secular bull" market and its counterpart "secular bear" market. A secular bear? Is that a grizzly without religious conviction? Actually, the adjective "secular" comes from the Latin word seculum, meaning a generation, or an age. Thus, a secular bear market endures on a timescale of decades. For example, the US stock market boomed in a secular bull market from 1982 to 2000, while global gold mining stocks declined in a secular bear market from 1981 to 2000. As seasons strung together make a year, multiple cyclical bull and bear markets can and do constitute a secular market. Clearly, in a secular bull the ups are bigger than the downs. The proof rests in the graphs of market indexes (a more accurate word than "averages") going back in time. While analyzing historical price graphs (a.k.a. "charts") can be interesting, all that is really old news, and I will not pontificate here. However, if you enjoy reading words more than charts, one popular book on the last secular bull market in US stocks is appropriately titled Bull! by Maggie Mahar. In addition, the more esoteric financial literature reveals even longer cycles, such as the nearly century sized "Kondratieff Cycle." I leave such study to the interested disciple.

snip>

What does a secular bear market mean to you? The self-serving Wall Street mantra "Invest for the Long-Term" will not make you any money for 10 more years, even if you can hold on to the investments. In fact, zero return in the major market averages was true for the previous two secular bears (1929-42 and 1966-82). If you are nearing retirement, and you are still heavily invested in stocks, you might be forced to work 5, 10, or 15 years longer than you planned. If you can keep a decent job. Those of you well into your careers might find yourselves squeezed from both the income and the cost ends, thus forcing liquidation of your 401k, 403b, and/or IRA assets to pay for current assets, and to prevent your cars and houses from being repossessed (so much for "Buy and Hold"). You might think of yourself as a savvy investor, and you can buy low and sell high through the turbulent years. Also, you might recognize that alternative investments, such as gold mining stocks or foreign currencies, are in secular bull markets. However, if you are middle class, you probably do not have enough capital to make up for any investment mistakes. All it takes is one big drop at the wrong moment to sink you. If you are much closer to your school years than your retirement years, you should learn about all the real world macroeconomics they never taught you at the U, and you should be skeptical of everything coming out of Wall Street and Washington, D.C. And everyone should pay off their debts! The bottom line is that you should focus on capital preservation, not capital appreciation, for many years until everybody sells out. But that's another article.

more...

[happynewyear]

75. I've been doing great lately

Nice investments at the moment: gold, oil and inflation bonds (TIPS). No complaints here but what a hell of a way to go.

Is there a ticker for oil btw?

Does anyone know?

:kick:

[54anickel]

77. Not sure which one you're looking for, but INO has charts for them all

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=energy

[happynewyear]

80. thank you!

That helps me out a lot! :D

:dem: :kick:

[UpInArms]

47. 12:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,018.70 -28.54 (-0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,868.11 -11.37 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,106.10 -4.01 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 3.997% -0.034

12:05PM: Bears have reared their head in today's market as the indices have traded lower all morning... The catalyst appears to be the same as previous sessions- concerns about elevated crude oil prices, worries about the upcoming earnings season, and number of brokerage firm downgrade... Morgan Stanley, specifically, downgraded, semiconductor to In-Line from Attractive, and Prudential downgraded communication equipment to Neutral from Favorable, as both firms cited slower growth rates...

As a result, tech has been one of the largest laggards this morning, under pressure from networking, disk drive, and semiconductor... Biotech and brokerage have also joined their ranks as some of the weakest groups... In fact, just about every sector has taken a hit (transportation, retail, telecom service, industrial) as sellers have dominated the action (breadth figures favor decliners 2-to-1).... The only areas to find any real buyers have been homebuilding and energy...

The former has benefited from a strong August New Home Sales report, in which units rose (at 1.184 mln versus the consensus of 1.155 mln) to their best levels since May thanks to the plunge in the 10-year note's yield (currently at 3.99%).... As for energy, it has caught a bid off the over 1% increase in the price of crude oil to $49.50/bbl... Supply disruptions caused by the multiple hurricanes that have pounded Florida's coast (and potential civil unrest in Nigeria) have contributed to the spike...

[54anickel]

49. Ha, I was wondering if there wouldn't be some buyer stepping in over

the lunchbreak. Last I looked a few minutes before the noonhour the DOW was within 3 points of 10K.

Look at it soar away from that now!

12:19

Dow 10,026.96 -20.28 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,869.07 -10.41 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,106.91 -3.20 (-0.29%)
10-yr Bond 3.995% -0.036
30-yr Bond 4.771% -0.029
NYSE Volume 579,272,000
Nasdaq Volume 627,293,000


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1009 (30%) 834 (27%)
Declines 2096 (63%) 2064 (67%)
Unchanged 172 (5%) 144 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 136 (25%) 140 (23%)
Down Vol* 391 (73%) 446 (75%)
Unch. Vol* 6 (1%) 7 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 96 38
New Lo's 46 54

[54anickel]

51. 12:51 and buyers coming out of the woodwork

Dow 10,031.97 -15.27 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 1,870.20 -9.28 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 1,107.67 -2.44 (-0.22%)
10-yr Bond 3.996% -0.035
30-yr Bond 4.769% -0.031
NYSE Volume 643,727,000
Nasdaq Volume 689,805,000

12:30PM: The market improves its stance as the Dow and S&P 500 stage a slight recovery effort... The Nasdaq has also lifted off its lows, but has found itself stuck in the 1868-1870 range... Buyers have expressed more interest in the basic material and health care spaces, where drug itself is up 0.3%...
Pfizer (PFE 39.99 +0.33) has emerged as a standout name as Goldman Sachs has described the stock as cheap, noting that a stress test of flat earnings through 2006 still produces a valuation of 13.9x earnings in 2006, which is below the 2006 valuation of all the other companies but Wyeth (WYE 37.18 -0.57)... Pfizer, along with Merck (MRK 44.70 +0.60) - which obtained to an experimental obesity drug - are currently leading the Dow...NYSE Adv/Dec 1042/2076, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 847/2046


edit to add the US Buck, now below the open:

Last trade 88.18 Change -0.22 (-0.25%)

Open 88.29 Previous Close 88.40

High 88.53 Low 88.18

[54anickel]

48. Major Signal In The Dow Transports (The Bulls side of the story)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/droke092504.html

Leave it to the bears to put a negative spin on an otherwise positive signal. In the Sept. 20 edition of Barron's, an article appeared with the headline, "The Dow Transports have raced ahead of the Industrials. Bad news for bulls?" The article quoted Dow Theory expert Richard Russell, along with others, on the latest positive divergence in the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) relative to the Dow 30 Industrials.

Never mind that the Transports have kept rising in bullish fashion this year in spite of spiking oil and gas prices. Pay no attention to the fact that the Transport index has a year-to-date gain of 8% versus a 2% decline for the Industrials. This is actually bearish according to the Russellite interpretation of the Dow Theory. Barron's quoted Russell as saying, "When the Industrials don't confirm it indicates there's a problem. The longer it takes to confirm, the worse."

Maybe this is the way it was in the twentieth century when most of the major long-term cycles were still peaking. But we're now in a new century with a new set of long-term cycles to deal with. I respectfully disagree with Russell's interpretation of Dow Theory. My observations have shown that the Transport index is actually a key leading indicator for the Dow Industrial index, and just because the Transports are rising while the Industrials are declining doesn't necessarily send a bearish signal. In fact, just the opposite is usually the case.

Since the year 2000, the DJTA has led the DJIA at every major turn. For instance, in mid- 1999-to-early 2000 (when the 30-year cycle was peaking), the Transport index made a sharp decline while the Dow 30 index made a new all-time high. This was a clear warning signal that the bear market was on its way. (To Russell's credit, he forecast this bear market in September 1999).

more...

[54anickel]

50. Often-bearish October could be one for the bulls

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P93641.asp

September, historically the worst month for stocks, has been solid so far. That could portend well for October -- a month marked by crashes and freefalls, but one which has also seen many bear markets end.

By Jim Jubak

September is supposed to be the worst month of the year for the stock market. So far, it looks like somebody forgot to tell stocks.

Could September’s positive performance be setting up investors and the market for an even better October? Traditionally, October is the month of crashes, massacres and market freefalls. But for the last three years, it’s been a winner, breaking the historical pattern that ranks the month just slightly ahead of September in the fall’s one-two punch of stock-market battering.
:eyes:Didn't the last 3 years also have all that stimulus of dropping interest rates and tax cut?

October always rattles investors as the financial press and Wall Street dig out reminders of the crashes of October 1929 and 1987; the 554-point plunge in October 1997, the 12% and 11% month-long drops that began in October 1978 and 1979, respectively, and the 200-point tumble on Friday, Oct. 13, 1989.

But October has another face as well. It’s what Yale and Jeffrey Hirsch call a “bear killer" in their Stock Trader’s Almanac. The month has seen the turn of nine bear markets since World War II: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990 and 1998.

more...

[54anickel]

52. COMEX gold rallies in morning as oil nears $50 a barrel

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=AU4FJK2OGUXVACRBAELCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=6342894

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - COMEX gold rose early Monday, shaking off overnight sluggishness, as NYMEX crude oil futures rose to a record high and investors sought inflation hedges.

snip>

Position adjustments before the expiration of COMEX October options at the close of trade also helped, dealers said. Silver performed better than gold, striking a 20-day high on the back of stop-loss buying.

"It's basically the energies opening up a bit stronger," a COMEX broker said. "We're anticipating at least to get $50 crude sometime today."

snip>

"Above $410 there's big open interest. Oil is obviously lending a hand, and the dollar -- the euro is rallying back up to the $1.23 number here," said a bullion trader at a commercial bank.

Monday marks the first day of the new Central Bank Gold Agreement, under which 15 nations agreed to raise the limit for total gold sales over five years to 2,500 tonnes from 2,000 tonnes under the expiring pact.

more..

[54anickel]

53. 1:39 numbers & yada (need more pixie dust!)

Dow 10,027.47 -19.77 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,868.30 -11.18 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,107.22 -2.89 (-0.26%)
10-yr Bond 3.997% -0.034
30-yr Bond 4.776% -0.024
NYSE Volume 744,032,000
Nasdaq Volume 790,571,000

1:30PM: Stocks stick to their levels around the top of the hour as the rebound attempt is unable to breach the unchanged mark... Despite the turn in some industry groups, most sectors are still lower for the day and are not showing any signs of budging... Financial has been one of the more notable losers considering its heavy representation in the market... Mortgage has been the weakest link in the group as the troubles at Fannie Mae (FNM 65.16 -0.35) continue to unfold...
On Friday, it was reported federal regulators may oust management, and today, FNM was featured in a negative Barron's piece and was also downgraded by Prudential and Morgan Stanley...NYSE Adv/Dec 1224/1951, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 933/2012

1:00PM: The indices continue to rebound as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 move above earlier support levels... The buying drive has occurred on the heels of reports bin Laden's number two has been captured... Sources such as Debka.com have said bin Laden's deputy Ayman Zuwahiry in Pakistan was reported captured Monday afternoon by Al Arabiya TV...

Although the market has shrugged of such 'developments' in recent months (often due to questions about their validity), the importance of Zuwahiry's position and the fact his capture has been reported on other websites has caused investors to use the earlier weakness as a buying opportunity...NYSE Adv/Dec 1132/2032, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 863/2061

[54anickel]

54. Debt was bad then, worse today

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=36315

Like cocaine, consumer credit comes in lines and is dangerously habit forming. It has been around a long time:-

"Prosperity was assisted, too, by ... stimulants to purchasing, each of which mortgaged the future but kept the factories roaring while it was being injected ... People were getting to consider it old-fashioned to limit their purchases to the amount of their cash balance; the thing to do was to 'exercise their credit' ... 15% of all retail sales were on an instalment basis ...It was fun while it lasted." - Only Yesterday, an informal history of the 1920's, F.L.Allen (published 1931).

These 'stimulants' of the 1920s were benign by comparison to our own.

Credit is now elevated to the status of a fundamental human right. It lifts up consumers with personal loans from the bank, credit cards through the mail, store-cards at the till, and on the back of any imagined increase in the value of overpriced homes. So important is credit to modernity that some western governments even create new banks to grant ever more of it to those unfortunates excluded by the prejudice of a wicked banking sector which reckons, not unreasonably, that it is daft to lend money to people who have no real prospect of paying anything back.

But although current consumer indebtedness is bigger than it has ever previously been it is still only the tip of the iceberg. Corporate consumption of credit is far worse.

The numbers from the publications of the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements show the world bond market, i.e. debt which has been issued in the form of traded bonds, grew from $800bn in 1970 to over $35,000bn in 2001. This is 43 times. It is still growing rapidly, but even this colossus is of no consequence; because next to it is the world of derivatives.

more...

[54anickel]

55. HP reportedly ends use of Intel chip (Itanium chip)

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/27/technology/hp_intel.reut/index.htm

Itanium chip said not handling customers' existing software as well as hoped: newspaper.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Printer and PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co. will stop offering desktop workstations based on Intel Corp.'s Itanium microprocessor, according to an online newspaper report.

The chip was designed with help from HP (HPQ: Research, Estimates) and was billed as a successor to the Intel X86 chip technology, but the first Itanium chips did not arrive until 2001 and did not handle customers' existing software as well as expected, the Wall Street Journal said in an online report.

Intel (INTC: Research, Estimates) had decided by then to target Itanium for high-end servers and workstations, designed to exploit 64-bit programs that tap into larger pools of memory than earlier 32-bit chips, it said.

snip>

The Journal said rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: Research, Estimates) added 64-bit capabilities to 32-bit chips, allowing customers to use both old and new software on the same computers. Intel was forced to emulate that approach earlier this year, it added.

more...

[54anickel]

56. Dow demands manufacturers pay more

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/44ebc3e6-1021-11d9-ba62-00000e2511c8.html

The largest supplier of plastics and adhesives to the car industry has demanded that manufacturers pay more on existing contracts because it cannot cut costs fast enough to offset soaring oil prices.

Dow Automotive, part of Dow Chemical, said it would stop research and development projects aimed at carmakers who reject requests for 25-40 per cent price rises.

Dow's key products - plastics and adhesives - are heavily reliant on oil, which has shot up in price from $30 a year ago to nearly $50 a barrel. It also relies on natural gas for energy in the US - the price of which has tripled.

The demands for price rises come as carmakers are being hit by requests for help from suppliers of steel components, which are being hammered by the 100 per cent rise in the price of steel in the past 12 months.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Lumber market is out on a limb

http://www.startribune.com/stories/535/4999412.html

No time is a good time for a hurricane, let alone three and a possible fourth. But the timing couldn't be worse for the construction industry.

With home builders predicting another record year for new construction, companies that manufacture and distribute building materials are running at full tilt. That's why Jerry Howard, executive vice president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders, says that nationwide, the industry -- which expects to build more than 1.7 million houses this year -- will feel the full brunt of the hurricane season.

"It's a unique confluence of events that we believe is going to have a significant effect on home building," he said.

Insurance companies, engineers and homeowners still are assessing the damage, and homeowners still are filing claims. But once the checks are cut and the contractors are hired, Frances & Co. could cause mayhem even in the Midwest, and home builders could end up absorbing the impact.

Lumber prices are of key concern now, but Howard said companies that manufacture all kinds of building materials -- including insulation, wallboard, bricks and cement -- already are operating at full capacity. As demand increases, prices are sure to follow.

more...

[ozymandius]

62. No kidding.

Lumber prices seem to have risen with real estate values. Then there's the weak dollar causing headaches with solid lumber and plywood that we must import (usually some of the better species of wood). Prices noticeably rose when we went to war in Iraq as so much of the supply was diverted to reconstruction efforts there. Now when I visit a Home Depot or Lowes and scan the lumber prices, I pity everyone associated with buying or selling the stuff. In the end, I pity the consumer who gets left with the tab AND the product. So much of the lumber dumped on construction lots is absolute crap.

[TrogL]

82. Maybe they should obey the law and drop the tarrif on Canadian lumber

Given they've had not one but THREE separate rulings, all against them.

[ozymandius]

58. Hi folks. Hre's the latest figures and blather.

2:14
Dow 10,026.37 -20.87 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,868.54 -10.94 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,107.16 -2.95 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 3.989% -0.042
NYSE Volume 822,280,000
Nasdaq Volume 865,686,000


U.S. stocks slide as crude climbs to new high

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A surge in the price of crude oil to new highs weighed heavily on Wall Street Monday, while bearish broker calls on semiconductors and communications equipment stocks pressured the technology sector.

Crude for November delivery, which rocketed to an all-time high of $49.74 in early New York Mercantile Exchange trading, was last up 55 cents to $49.43 a barrel.

The previous intraday high of $49.40 was set Aug. 20. The benchmark crude contract ended at $48.88 on Friday -- the highest closing price ever seen in the futures market.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040927/241715ede948dca84ef07261dfb76ac9_1.html

[UpInArms]

59. J.P. Morgan Chase buys stake in hedge fund

http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=94c1ed869f7745e7

New York's J.P. Morgan Chase is buying a majority stake in Highbridge Capital Management, a hedge fund, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.

Hedge funds are designed for wealthy investors willing to give money mangers more flexibility than conventional mutual fund managers possess. For example, hedge fund managers may express bearish views by selling borrowed stock and use exotic securities like derivatives and borrowed money to improve returns. In exchange, they charge far higher fees to investors, generally taking management fees of 1 to 2 percent of assets and a 20 percent cut of profits.

The management fee on Highbridge's flagship multi-strategy fund is 2 percent, which would mean annual management fees of about $140 million.

...more...

[54anickel]

63. But weren't they already the biggest player in hedge funds and derivatives

or was that Citibank? Could have sworn it was JP Morgan Chase - they're the ones that bought Bank One, right?

[ozymandius]

64. So now J.P. Morgan Chase is buying insurance

against being eaten? That's a hefty tab to pay just for insurance.

[54anickel]

60. IMF Cuts World '05 Growth Forecast-Source

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6344731

LONDON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth next year slightly amid expectations that the U.S. and Chinese economies will not expand as strongly as previously thought.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF will forecast global growth of 4.3 percent for 2005, down from an estimate of 4.4 percent published in April, a source who has seen the document told Reuters on Monday.

In the latest outlook, to be published in Washington on Wednesday, the fund expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by 3.5 percent next year, while China's vibrant economy is seen expanding by 7.5 percent.

snip>

However, the IMF also predicts that the world economy will expand by 5.0 percent this year, more than originally forecast, due to a better than expected performances by China, Japan and key euro zone economies like Germany and France.

Whoossssssh! There's that sound again as the rest of the world passes by.

[TrogL]

66. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-08-27 Friday, August 27 0.763126 USD
2004-08-30 Monday, August 30 0.759071 USD
2004-08-31 Tuesday, August 31 0.759532 USD
2004-09-01 Wednesday, September 1 0.765052 USD
2004-09-02 Thursday, September 2 0.769527 USD
2004-09-03 Friday, September 3 0.768935 USD
2004-09-07 Tuesday, September 7 0.776277 USD
2004-09-08 Wednesday, September 8 0.774893 USD
2004-09-09 Thursday, September 9 0.776518 USD
2004-09-10 Friday, September 10 0.776398 USD
2004-09-13 Monday, September 13 0.769231 USD
2004-09-14 Tuesday, September 14 0.773994 USD
2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD
2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD


The loonie's on a bit of a tear compared to most currencies, although it dropped slightly against the Pound, Euro and Swiss Franc. Morning CBC news says the GDP looked rosy but to watch out for reports coming from major US companies.

[54anickel]

67. Good to see the commodity currencies are doing well anyway.

I've read and posted articles in the past that stated if we were to enter a commodity bull market that the "commodity currencies" of Canada, Australia and New Zealand would fare quite well.

[ozymandius]

68. 2:54 figures

Dow 10,006.98 -40.26 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 1,864.93 -14.55 (-0.77%)
S&P 500 1,105.13 -4.98 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 3.991% -0.04
NYSE Volume 934,451,000
Nasdaq Volume 975,166,000

[UpInArms]

69. Stock market breadth is negative, volume data is worse

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38257.6128240741-821814304&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The market's breadth readings may be fairly negative, but the volume data is even worse. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones by a 2,013 to 1,174 margin on the NYSE and by a 2,110 to 867 score on the Nasdaq exchange. Volume of stocks losing ground was 360.2 million shares on the Big Board vs. up volume of 119.9 million shares, and 624.1 million shares on the Nasdaq, vs. advancing volume of 251.5 million shares. Meanwhile, the Dow industrials ($INDU) were down 39 points at 10,008 and the Nadsaq Composite ($COMPQ) slid 15 points to 1,864.

[54anickel]

71. Heh, was just thinking the same thing while posting the 3:09 numbers!

[54anickel]

70. 3:09 and pixie dust all around

Dow 10,020.40 -26.84 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 1,867.19 -12.29 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,106.50 -3.61 (-0.33%)
10-yr Bond 3.991% -0.040
30-yr Bond 4.768% -0.032
NYSE Volume 984,348,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,026,739,000

3:00PM: More of the same for the equity market, which continues to be bogged down by pronounced selling... Tech continues to post the largest losses (-0.6%), followed by industrial (-0.5%) and financial (-0.5%)... Biotech, airline, retail, casino, and property insurance have also performed poorly and locked the indices in negative territory... Only the drug, managed care, utility, and homebuilding shares have crept higher in what has been a negative session... The latter two have benefited from the drop in interest rates, stemming from the bond market's rally today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1161/2067, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 897/2138

2:30PM: Major indices sink lower although keep to their trading range of the day... For the entirety of the session, the market has not broken above the unchanged mark as the tone of trading has remained undoubtedly bearish... Down volume is outrunning up volume by more than a 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq... Crude oil has cropped up yet another time as a reason for the downturn... The commodity reached as high as $49.75/bbl today before backing down to $49.42/bbl...

Fighting in Nigeria, which has impacted oil production, along with the various hurricanes hitting the Gulf Coast, have contributed to the surge... Weekly crude oil inventories are also due out on Wednesday, and the US could see a 9th week of declines...NYSE Adv/Dec 1255/1980, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 942/2053

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1199 (35%) 905 (28%)
Declines 2036 (59%) 2121 (66%)
Unchanged 176 (5%) 156 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 273 (29%) 223 (22%)
Down Vol* 637 (68%) 735 (75%)
Unch. Vol* 14 (1%) 19 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 114 41
New Lo's 50 66

[KoKo]

74. Closing Numbers and Dow Dives below 10,000. Pixies pooped out...

Dow 9,988.54 -58.70 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,859.88 -19.60 (-1.04%)
S&P 500 1,103.52 -6.59 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 3.997% -0.034
NYSE Volume 1,263,187,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,312,858,000

[54anickel]

78. Ran outta Pixies to grind into dust? There's always tomorrow I guess.

Oil shortage, lumber shortage, cement shortage, decent wage job shortage and now a stinkin' Pixie shortage. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

76. Closing time - Ugh

Dow 9,988.54 -58.70 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,859.88 -19.60 (-1.04%)
S&P 500 1,103.52 -6.59 (-0.59%)
10-yr Bond 3.997% -0.034
30-yr Bond 4.772% -0.028
NYSE Volume 1,263,182,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,311,392,000

Close: It was a choppy session for the stock market that ultimately ended at its worst levels - speaking volumes about the issues weighing it down... Crude oil and analyst commentary all worked in the favor of the bulls, and the equity market finally caved in under such profits' concerns... Crude oil climbed 2% for the day - ending at 49.64/bbl - as traders worried about the supply implications of four hurricanes off the Florida coast and incidences of civil unrest in Nigeria... As a result, the energy group was one of the few groups to find buying interest in today's session...
Homebuilding/mortgage was the other exception as (1) interest rates fell in conjunction with the bond market's rally (2) August New Home Sales rose to 1.184 mln (consensus of 1.155 mln), and (3) Fannie Mae (FNM 66.50 +0.99) found bargain-hunting interest following its sell-off last week federal regulators' findings... Conversely, brokerage, biotech, airline, insurance, retail, and technology all led the market lower... The latter was particularly impacted by a Morgan Stanley downgrade of semiconductor to In-Line from Attractive and a Prudential downgrade of communication equipment to Neutral from Favorable...SOX -1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1183/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 866/2216

3:30PM: The market remains underwater with most sectors showing losses across the board... The indices have not been able to get off the ground today as traders have been preoccupied by the disturbing situation at Fannie Mae (FNM 66.24 +0.73) - the biggest buyer of U.S. mortgages, the 2% spike in the price of crude oil to $49.64/bbl, and the implication - via a number of brokerage firm downgrades - that analysts still expect more downside from this market... Buyers have preferred to thus sit tight and avoid volatile sectors, and have instead opted for more safe-haven names like utility and drug...NYSE Adv/Dec 1256/2000, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 948/2100

3:00PM: More of the same for the equity market, which continues to be bogged down by pronounced selling... Tech continues to post the largest losses (-0.6%), followed by industrial (-0.5%) and financial (-0.5%)... Biotech, airline, retail, casino, and property insurance have also performed poorly and locked the indices in negative territory... Only the drug, managed care, utility, and homebuilding shares have crept higher in what has been a negative session... The latter two have benefited from the drop in interest rates, stemming from the bond market's rally today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1161/2067, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 897/2138

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1190 (34%) 866 (26%)
Declines 2114 (61%) 2216 (68%)
Unchanged 161 (4%) 147 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 307 (24%) 263 (20%)
Down Vol* 934 (74%) 1029 (79%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (0%) 9 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 124 46
New Lo's 59 78



As for the US Buck, just about where it started.

Last trade 88.27 Change -0.09 (-0.10%)

Open 88.29 Previous Close 88.40

High 88.53 Low 88.17


Have a great evening everyone. :hi:

[UpInArms]

83. wonder what lies ahead

[54anickel]

84. GACK!!!!