Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions (New documents)

[oldhat]

Just in time for the debate on Thursday. ;)

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/politics/28intel.html?hp=&pagewanted=print&position=

Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions
By DOUGLAS JEHL and DAVID E. SANGER

ASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House had tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month.

Last week, Mr. Bush dismissed the latest intelligence reports, saying its authors were "just guessing'' about the future, though he corrected himself later, calling it an "estimate.''

[KittyWampus]

1. Experts On Iraq Recommended Police & Military NOT Be Disbanded

those who were familiar with Iraq, as it really existed before the war, told the WH and Pentagon that the army and police should be kept intact with only higher ups being held liable/prosecuted.

Bush, Cheney Rumsfeld and the rest disregarded that information too.

Perhaps if they'd listened to the advice of those in a position to actually KNOW a thing or two, the insurgency and chaos might not have blossomed.

[mhr]

2. Terror Alert - Bush Guesses Intelligence Report Wrong - Soldiers Die

More at eleven. Stay Tuned.

sarcasm off

[oldhat]

3. Kick

[DeepModem Mom]

4. Damning story -- page-one, NYT nt

[leftchick]

5. Many foreign intelligence agencies were saying the same....

way before the invasion. I hope this article does some good. I am amazed at the level of incompetance aWol* continues to get away with....

[unfrigginreal]

6. Most important story of the day and so far, nothing on the boob tube.

Bush's "miscalculation of what the conditions would be" turns out to be his bad judgement of ignoring the intelligence that he received. The same "darn good intelligence" that he bragged about as a reason for going to war.

[slojim240]

7. Now this is the story Dan Rather should have been reporting!!

No one else will in the mainstream news media.

[Moderator]

8. Kick

:kick:

[w4rma]

9. My posts on this board before the invasion said that too. Not hard to

figure this out, except for folks blinded by ideology.

[Moderator]

10. kick

:kick:

[struggle4progress]

11. and again

:kick:

[kerryin2004]

12. This also made the Dallas Morning News...

Surprise Surprise Surprise...