STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 28 September

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 28, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 114
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 35
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 291 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 345 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 558
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1041
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 27, 2004

Dow... 9,988.54 -58.70 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq... 1,859.88 -19.60 (-1.04%)
S&P 500... 1,103.52 -6.59 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.00% -0.03 (-0.84%)
Gold future... 410.70 +1.10 (+0.27%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp - MODERN AMERICAN ECONOMIC MYTHOLOGY

WrapUp by Jim Willie CB

In ancient Greek and Roman times, mythology served a strange but valuable service. First, it channeled pervasive belief in spirituality and deity in general, beyond the mortal world. Second, it cooperated with the sense of individual human helplessness by putting structure to the higher powers. In today’s day and age, we have become fixated on the spirit of money and what it buys in the way of possessions, entertainment, and leisure. Here too, the individual is dwarfed more than ever. The powers that be have assembled a structure. The apparatus consists of a truly bizarre and frightening intertwined network of derivative gears, intervention devices, bank lending methods, mortgage finance centrifuges, stock equity conversion means, promotion systems, and advertisement conflict of interest. The spin for the system is a complex series of economic myths, not unlike the great Greek mythology that endured centuries. The American version is certain not to last as long.

-cut-

THE NATURE AND ROLE OF MYTHS

Today, the Macro Economy Myth is under siege, a certain quiet attack. Currently at work is the third in a long list of myths used as mental glue to hold together the internal mechanisms of the US financial system, to maintain foreign confidence in our markets, and to attract enormous sums of capital on a daily basis to keep both Wall Street and the US Economy going. The petro-dollar foundation, the basis of world commerce, has been shaken in the last two years. It is fortified at irregularly timed interventions by foreign central banks, without which sudden swoons in currency exchange rates and sudden rises in interest rates would deliver massive shocks to real economies around the globe. The petro-dollar is complex, fully intertwined with geopolitics, with banking & monetary system, with financial markets, and with international commerce. A quick dismissal of its importance by economic pundits is absurdly shallow and recklessly naïve. It is most likely linked with military motives.

-cut-

Myths perpetuate because the monetary system cannot stand on its own merits. The USDollar, since 1971, has not been backed by gold. By default, it has in practicality been backed by USTBond debt. The flipside of the USDollar is a USTBond, which is a soft sand foundation for any economic house to be built. The first great myth was motivated by the need for stimulus, to remove the US Economy from the worst recession endured since the Great Depression. Saddled by enormous ground swell of costs from higher energy prices, amplified by growing head winds from the rising costs of federal social programs, the nation and its Congress had to be convinced of the first myth. We have proceeded from one myth to another, hopelessly unwilling and unable to accept the tragedy of the divorce of the USDollar from its golden anchor. All world financial crises can be traced to the Bretton Woods divorce.

-cut-

#1 -- SUPPLY SIDE ECONOMIC MYTH (TRICKLE DOWN)

Evidence of the failure of the first myth is the abandoned mfg base, a 1987 Black Monday stock bust, a 1989 Savings & Loan disaster, and the birth of the Plunge Protection Team. The most damaging symptom to this myth was the rise in the USDollar in the middle of the 1980 decade. In reaction, the US manufacturing base gradually went sent offshore to Asia, first to Japan, later to the Pacific Rim where the Asian Tigers reside. Back then our cast of economists was much more competent. They realized the removal of the mfg base meant lost jobs, lost wages, and national impoverishment. Today we know better !?!?! The Plaza Accord was agreed upon by the industrial power finance ministers. It was intended to reduce the value of the USDollar, in order to encourage a return of the US mfg base. While the US$ was steered lower, the labor cost difference between Asian and the USA could not be addressed by currency adjustment alone. Their labor costs are between 5 and 20 times lower than inside the USA. The mfg offshore movement continued, only to accelerate ten years later.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/willie/2004/0927.html

[54anickel]

15. Great wrap up again today. Then again, I do love Jim Willie! This

part is especially unnerving:

Recently, Greenspan speeches center on social programs being scaled back. He recognizes that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other entrenched programs cannot be funded. He cites a growing federal budget deficit, which causes neither alarm nor desire for reduction. In my opinion, he is actively engaged in a publicity campaign to create an alibi for upcoming failures and systemic shocks. Backroom cleanup efforts must be intense, as the JPMorgan hedgebook and Fanny Mae balance sheet require full-time attention. Such undertakings are kept quiet though, and far from the undiscerning public eye. JPMorgan and Fanny Mae stand as vivid evidence of the failure of the previous two myths.

[KoKo]

25. Sadly this article puts alot of what we read here in perspective, doesn't

it? :scared: What a bleak picture. What do we do about this? If the "gold standard" was suddenly instituted it would cause chaos. So, how is that an answer. It could be done "incrementally" if there was a will, but how do we survive this bleak picture to get to the point of our economists even thinking about it?

Those trying to bring us back to a "gold standard" seem to feel the entire system will have to crash before it's possible. :shrug:

[54anickel]

32. Wish I knew what the answer is, but I don't. Here's an old article

from before Shrub's selection that I found interesting. I remember that Reagan used to talk about returning to some sort of "new" gold standard in his 2nd term, nothing like the old one where the price was fixed. It never got much press though. Probably afraid it would make him look like some sort of a nut after his admin pushed for the trickle down idea. Rather silly, since that made him look like a nut to begin with. :evilgrin:

Anyway, here's that old article that shows the high hopes Europe had for Shrub back then.

If I posted this here before, I apologize for the repetition.

http://www.geoinvestor.com/archives/goarchives/april300.htm

snip>

Global Currency Reform & U.S. Leadership

Global monetary reform is long overdue. Ever since the collapse of the Bretton Woods accord in the early 1970s, the world has had to cope with an undisciplined floating exchange-rate system, prone to ruinous bouts of inflation and startling devaluations. The ascent of the global economy has only made matters worse. The currency and inflation risks inherent in floating exchange rates, over which central banks presumably exercise no direct control, give global direct and portfolio investors pause, driving up the cost of capital and reducing its availability at the margin. All of which means that economic growth worldwide is lower than it otherwise would be under a more strict and predictable global monetary system, governed by a price rule to avoid the pitfalls of excess liquidity and unwanted inflation.

The world is clearly ripe for monetary reform. The recent alignments in Europe are but one example of the desire for greater international monetary stability. The nations of Latin America and East Asia, cruelly stung by the devaluations of the Mexican peso in 1994-95 and the Thai baht in 1997, would no doubt also welcome a move toward currency stabilization. Such an action would require leadership that only the U.S. can provide. In that regard, 2000 could prove an auspicious year. Odds are that Republican George W. Bush, Jr. will win the November presidential election. If he were then to decide to restore order to the world's monetary system, a new Bretton Woods-type accord could become a reality as early as 2002.

Currency Stability & Labor Productivity

A Bretton Woods II would ensure strong and sustained 21st century global economic growth. By eliminating currency risks and lowering inflation expectations worldwide, a global monetary union, of sorts, would facilitate increased financial capital flows. The combination of currency and price stability would indeed put the global economy on the road to a truly remarkable century.

[KoKo]

46. Thanks for this link, "54" Should be an interesting read for the

background...:-)'s

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.03 Change -0.26 (-0.29%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1096354694-9e32d306-09750

Forex - US dollar firmer vs yen in Singapore on rising oil prices

SINGAPORE (AFX) - The dollar was firmer against the yen in Singapore afternoon trade on concerns that high oil prices would trigger a global economic slowdown that will hurt the recovering Japanese economy further, dealers said

High energy costs are also potentially harmful to the US economy and dollar, given the country's status as the world's largest consumer of crude. But the impact is expected to be more detrimental to Japan given its strong dependence on imported oil, hence the weaker yen

At 2.10 pm (0610 GMT), the dollar/yen was at 111.35, trading at a range of 111.14 and 111.45 as oil prices rose to new highs in Asia with the Nymex light sweet crude for November delivery hovering above 50 usd per barrel

Against the euro, the dollar was also stronger at 1.2285 from 1.2293

"To a certain extent, the issue here is that the yen has always been a currency that is more influenced by growth prospects," a currency strategist with a US bank said

"The yen is coming under pressure, the euro-yen is pulling ahead. This is a reflection of people just getting concerned over the global growth outlook," he said

The dollar, however, is not expected to pull further away from other currencies and is likely to stay at a tight range moving forward given that US is battling with a high current account deficit, analysts said

Of particular focus to the market is the upcoming G7 meeting on Friday on talks that there could be a concerted effort to make the dollar weaker to address the current account deficit problem of the US

The market is similarly looking forward to the release of the Tankan survey on business sentiment in Japan, also on Friday

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH91898_2004-09-28_11-07-14_L28218281

Europe gold rises, inflation jitters, euro support

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Gold rose in Europe on Tuesday morning in quiet activity, supported by inflation worries sparked by surging oil prices and a steady euro, with dealers looking for the price to break up out of recent ranges.

Additional underlying support also came with data showing that Argentina's central bank had upped its gold reserves to 55.1 tonnes.

Spot gold <XAU=> rose to $410.50/411.25 per troy ounce by 1017 GMT, from $408.70/409.50 quoted late in New York on Monday.

"The fact that oil is up on its highs is a supportive factor due to rumours that investors are buying gold as a hedge against inflation -- but the dollar is also looking pretty weak and that might be a bigger factor," one dealer said.

Oil prices raced to new record highs above $50 on Tuesday as rebel threats against Nigerian oil facilities threatened to inflict further strain on global supplies.

...more...

Today's report:

Sep 28 10:00 AM
Consumer Confidence Sep
report -
briefing.com anticipates 99.5
market anticipates 99.5
last report 98.2
revised -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

13. Consumer Confidence Falls

10:00am 09/28/04 U.S. SEPT. PRESENT SITUATION 95.5 VS. 100.7

10:00am 09/28/04 U.S. SEPT. EXPECTATIONS 97.6 VS. 97.3

10:00am 09/28/04 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 96.8 VS. 98.7

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38258.4168518518-821893624&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Sept. consumer confidence index slips to 96.8

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The U.S. consumer confidence index dipped for the second straight month in September, falling to 96.8 from an upwardly revised 98.7 in August, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. Expectations were largely unchanged at 97.6 vs. 97.3 in August. Attitudes about the current economic situation, however, fell to 95.5 from 100.7. Economists were expecting the index to improve to 99.1, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch

[llmart]

41. Man, I really miss Frodo......

and his comments. Right about now he would be trying to convince us that the continuing decline in consumer confidence is a good sign:)
(sarcasm intended here)

[54anickel]

16. US Buck seems to be hanging on for dear life near 88.05. Here's

a bit o' blather from INO

The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight as they consolidate above August's low crossing at 88.05. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 88.78 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. From a broad perspective the December Dollar needs to close above July's high crossing at 90.46 or below August's low crossing at 88.05 to clear up near-term direction in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The December Euro was higher overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, a test of August's high crossing at 123.83 is possible. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.336 would signal that the corrective rally off August's low has likely come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

snip>

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's breakout above last January's high crossing at .7800. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If this summer's rally continues, a test of weekly resistance crossing at .7863 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .7771 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends last week's breakout below the lower boundary of this summer's trading range crossing at .9080. The stage is set for a test of July's low crossing at .8966 later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[ozymandius]

3. Chain Store Sales Mixed in Latest Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales saw a slight decline of 0.3 percent on a week-over-week basis. However, on a year-over-year basis, the sales momentum remained strong at 3.5 percent, a report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell by 0.3 percent in the week ended September 25, compared with a 1.1 percent decline in the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report. Compared with the same week a year ago, sales rose, 3.5 percent keeping pace from the 3.5 percent rise the preceding week.

"Though sales on a week-over-week basis declined, the overall sales pace continues to hold up and remain positive," said Michael Niemira, ICSC's chief economist and director of research.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/nm/20040928/bs_nm/economy_retail_icsc_dc&sid=95609869

[UpInArms]

4. Will Fannie Get Spanked?

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=6345619

Fannie shares below Freddie for 1st time since '88

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Mortgage finance company Fannie Mae's (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) share price fell on Monday below smaller counterpart Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for the first time in nearly 16 years as investors tried to assess the scope of an accounting scandal that erupted at Fannie Mae last week.

At mid-afternoon, Fannie Mae shares were up 50 cents at $66.01, while Freddie Mac shares were up $1.58 at $66.17 a share. Taking stock splits into consideration, this is the first time since December 1988 that Freddie Mac shares have traded above Fannie Mae shares.

Back then, Freddie Mac shares traded at $4.10 while Fannie Mae stock was at $4.06 a share.

By mid-afternoon on Monday, more than 11 million Fannie Mae shares had changed hands, making it among the most actively traded public companies.

...more....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52741-2004Sep26.html

Regulate Fannie Mae

THE LONG stalemate over the nation's two big mortgage companies may at last be breaking. For several years, critics have argued that the two companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, were not only huge but also unstable: Their approach to managing financial risk was cavalier, and if they fell apart the taxpayers would have to rescue them. The lenders replied that their financial controls were watertight, and until recently proof to the contrary was lacking.

Last year, however, a report on Freddie Mac, the smaller of the two firms, said that the company was massaging its financial results. Last week a 198-page report on Fannie Mae delivered a similar verdict.

The new report on Fannie Mae describes a pattern of manipulation: Executives underreported earnings some years and overreported them in others, thus smoothing the firm's apparent performance and, in the case of a particular maneuver in 1998, boosting executive bonuses. The eight-month investigation also unearthed doubts as to whether Fannie Mae kept enough capital on hand to protect itself from bankruptcy in the event of unexpected shocks, and it raised a question about "the overall safety and soundness of the enterprise."

Fannie Mae may challenge these findings, perhaps even successfully. But the report's apparent lesson here is the same as the one taught by Enron and its successor scandals. Senior executives whose bonuses are linked to their companies' reported earnings face powerful incentives to manipulate those earnings; restraints on such manipulation are feeble.

Fannie Mae's auditor, KPMG, apparently felt unable to challenge the lender's use of unorthodox accounting techniques; an employee who questioned these techniques was ignored. The upshot was that the final word on Fannie Mae's accounting methods seems to have come from the top managers: The same group of people that set Fannie's earnings targets and stood to benefit from meeting them.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Fannie Mae May Buy Fewer Mortgages to Meet Capital Requirement

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a_sCNCVMpfEE&refer=top_world_news

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage buyer, may slow purchases of home loans to meet its regulator's demand to boost capital, hurting earnings prospects.

``They will stop growing,'' said analyst Jonathan Gray of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., who has been a member of Institutional Investor's All-America research team every year since 1974 and testified to Congress on the savings and loan crisis in 1989. He rates Fannie Mae ``outperform.''

The government-chartered company's federal regulator yesterday gave it 270 days to increase capital to a level 30 percent above the required minimum after finding accounting errors. Washington-based Fannie Mae already exceeds the minimum, which was $31.2 billion at the end of June, by $4.9 billion.

Fannie Mae would meet the new level by reducing mortgage loan and securities purchases by about $100 billion over the next 12 months, said the New York-based Gray. The company bought $175 billion this year through August. After factoring in loans that are paid off by homeowners, it owns $895 million of mortgage assets, down from $898 billion in December.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Stocks Seen Higher; Oil Steady at $50 Bbl

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks looked to open higher on Tuesday, with beaten down shares tempting investors and oil producer stocks bolstered by crude oil prices breaking through the $50 a barrel mark.

Shares of BP (NYSE:BP - news), the world's second largest oil producer, rose more than 2 percent in pre-market trade. Royal Dutch Petroleum Company (NYSE:RD - news) shares rose nearly 1 percent before the bell.

-cut-

U.S. light crude prices hovered around $50 a barrel after rising to $50.57 a barrel earlier, the highest since the contract began trading in 1983, as doubts over Nigerian output heightened worries of a severe supply crunch ahead of winter. The spike in oil prices has heightened concerns of surging energy costs slowing economic growth.

-cut-

"It's amazing how the market is shrugging off this oil news. But after a few down days, the market is washed out a bit so I think we'll see a technical bounce," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Legg Mason Wood Walker, referring to investors buying up bargain stocks after a sharp fall off on Monday.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=1&u=/nm/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc&sid=95609877

[aneerkoinos]

9. Technical bounce?

That's what a PPT reassuring intervention in the futures is called nowadays? ;)

[TrogL]

18. That won't be a "technical bounce" it'll be a "dead cat bounce"

[ozymandius]

24. Commentary on the dead cat

U.S. stocks pull back after confidence report

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks fell from their early highs Tuesday morning after the Conference Board reported an unexpected drop in consumer confidence.

-cut

The U.S. consumer confidence index dipped for the second straight month in September, falling to 96.8 from an upwardly revised 98.7 in August, the Conference Board reported. Expectations were largely unchanged at 97.6 vs. 97.3 in August. Attitudes about the current economic situation, however, fell to 95.5 from 100.7. Economists were expecting the index to improve to 99.1, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={5C1497FD-8F4D-4C9E-8540-27553356FAB3}&siteid=yhoo">economic report

story

[UpInArms]

6. Ex-exec: Fastow knew of sham

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzenro283987424sep28,0,3946986.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

Former Enron Corp. executive Michael Kopper said his ex-boss, Andrew Fastow, promised to buy back Merrill Lynch & Co.'s interest in Nigerian barges as part of a plan to falsely boost Enron's revenue by $12 million.

As a witness in the criminal trial under way in Houston federal court, Kopper, 39, a Long Island native, bolstered assertions by former Enron and Merrill employees who testified last week that the defendants knew the barge sale was a sham. They hid the buyback because, under accounting rules, it would make the sale a loan that Enron couldn't claim as revenue, they said.

Fastow, Enron's former chief financial officer, "made a promise to Merrill Lynch that Merrill would be out of the Nigerian barge transaction," said Kopper. Defense lawyers raised questions about whether Enron had only promised Merrill that it would find a third party to purchase its interest.

<snip>

Kopper, who said he paid "kickbacks" to Fastow, pleaded guilty in 2002 to wire fraud and money laundering. While at Enron, he ran off-the-books partnerships that were used to hide the Houston-based company's losses and was the first Enron executive to cooperate with prosecutors. He could be sentenced to up to 15 years in prison.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. CP: Oil-price shock produces uncertain picture for North American markets

TORONTO (CP) - The shock of $50-a-barrel oil produced a mixed picture for North American stock markets early Tuesday.

Crude oil topped $50 US a barrel in Asia, surging to record high levels likely to unsettle consuming countries. But Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, then announced it will raise production from 9.5 million barrels a day to 11 million barrels.

"The latest (oil price) spark was the reported increase in fighting in Nigeria," said ANZ Bank energy analyst Daniel Hynes from Melbourne, Australia. "But Ivan certainly paved the way for the latest surge."

-cut-

Wall Street futures suggested a mildly positive start for regular trading while European indexes edged higher. But Asian stock markets closed mostly lower on continued worries about oil.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1821&ncid=1196&e=8&u=/cpress/20040928/ca_pr_on_bu/world_markets

[UpInArms]

12. Oil prices will drag on U.S. economy

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B247470F7%2D4C22%2D46A3%2DB271%2DD8463162DBA0%7D&siteid=mktw

Economists don't see repeat of late 1970s stagflation

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- With crude-oil prices breaking above $50 a barrel for the first time, economists say higher energy prices will hold back the U.S. economy but not brake it.

"It's a drag," said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's. "But it's a bearable drag."

Few economists see signs of a repeat of the 1970s, when soaring oil prices lead to two recessions and a surge of inflation.

The economy is better prepared now, economists say, since it requires less energy now to produce a $1 worth of output. And, the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low.

Still, higher energy prices will have a significant impact. "I call it 'stagflation light,' " said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center.

Dhawan said higher energy prices will slow growth and accelerate inflation, but not nearly to the same extent as in the late 1970s' oil crisis, when inflation was raging at double-digit rates and growth stagnated.

In the early 1980s, crude oil cost the equivalent of more than $60 a barrel in 2004 dollars.

...more...

Bck to the 80s again! These jokers must have some very powerful drugs to forget how horrible the 80s actually were.

[54anickel]

17. Quite the contrast to today's wrap-up. Are these guys in the same

camp of economists still holding on to the belief that oil will drop back down to $30? "Stagflation light"? PFFFT.

[UpInArms]

8. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

09:19 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. A little bit of steam has come out of the futures market, but current indications still suggest a slightly higher start for the cash market

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

8:37AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. Positive bias in the futures market remains intact, which is generating expectations for a modestly higher start for the cash market... The Consumer Confidence report for September will help dictate the pace, and direction, of trading after its release at 10:00 ET... While the futures market is holding its own right now in the face of $50 oil, investor concerns will be more palpable should the confidence number come in much weaker than expected; the consensus estimate is 99.5

8:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Oil prices are above $50/bbl at the moment, driven by supply concerns related to reports that Nigerian rebels have warned oil companies to shut oil production in the Niger delta before they declare an all-out war on Oct. 1.... Futures market, however, is sporting a positive bias in anticipation of an early rebound try following recent weakness... Gains in Europe and both Dell (DELL) and Lowe's (LOW) affirming their Q3 guidance have acted as early sources of support

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 1393.45. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1377.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1415.30 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The December NASDAQ 100 was steady at 1392 as of 5:46 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 1105.25 and the 40-day moving average crossing at 1102.47. Closes below the 40-day moving average would open the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level crossing at 1096.90 later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1116.68 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning

[UpInArms]

10. 9:34 EST markets are open (and Happy!)

Dow 10,018.55 +30.01 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,866.53 +6.65 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,105.82 +2.30 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 3.987% -0.010

[UpInArms]

14. 10:04 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,005.06 +16.52 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,860.66 +0.78 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,104.30 +0.78 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.989% -0.008

10:00AM: Fairly stabe trade but little followthrough...the negative impact from oil is getting most of the press, so it might be hard for the indices to stay in plus territory, especially with the recent negative sentiment...the SOX semiconductor index is now down 0.7% after opening higher...consumer confidence at 10:00 ET...

9:40AM: Indices open even stronger than futures indicated...surprising resilience in the face of $50 a barrel oil, which is dominating the talking heads on TV and is the top headline in print...bonds are showing as little concern as stocks, as the 10-year is unchanged in price and the yield remains under 4%, at 3.99%...there were no major earnings warnings, and Dell (DELL 35.31 +0.23) reaffirmed profit guidance, while Target (TGT 45.96 +0.21) said September same store sales were in the 2% to 4% range, still on plan...

[UpInArms]

20. 10:39 EST numbers and blather

Dow 9,986.40 -2.14 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,854.59 -5.29 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,102.63 -0.89 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.987% -0.010

10:25AM: Consumer confidence came in at 96.8, down from 98.7 in August...a slight gain had been expected...that has pushed the market lower but the market managed to rebound shortly thereafter...Dow dipped below 10,000 but quickly rebounded above that level...focus is still on oil...volume is light again...advancers have solid lead on declining issues...NYSE Adv/Dec 1748/1045, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1342/1097

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. apparently not happy enough to stop the slide (below 10k now) nt

[ozymandius]

21. latest blather 10:38am

NEW YORK - Stocks turned higher Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average back above the 10,000 mark, as investors shrugged off rising energy prices and focused instead on good corporate news. Even a decline in consumer confidence failed to shake the enthusiasm of buyers.

-cut-

In economic news, consumer confidence declined for a second straight month, a New York-based private research group reported. According to the Conference Board (news - web sites), the index fell 1.9 points to 96.8 from a revised reading of 98.7 in August. Analysts had expected a reading of 99.5. Economists blamed the decline on soft labor market conditions.

Wall Street barely blinked as crude for November delivery soared past the psychologically important milestone of $50 per barrel for the first time, shortly after a Saudi Arabian oil official said his country would raise its daily production capacity by 15 percent in an effort to calm prices. The move essentially allows the world's largest petroleum exporter to raise production at will, depending on demand.

Oil prices still surged, however, as increased fighting in Nigeria forced several companies to shut down production and evacuate workers. Rebels in Nigeria, the world's seventh-largest crude exporter, are battling for control of the nation's southern oil fields.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1196&e=7&u=/ap/20040928/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street&sid=95609876

[ozymandius]

22. And some numbers

10:43
Dow 9,986.18 -2.36 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,854.07 -5.81 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,101.90 -1.62 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 3.983% -0.014
NYSE Volume 337,760,000
Nasdaq Volume 431,056,000

Quite a contrast to an hour ago.

[KoKo]

27. Whatever they are smoking is starting to make them sound really

out of it today!

NEW YORK - Stocks turned higher Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average back above the 10,000 mark, as investors shrugged off rising energy prices and focused instead on good corporate news. Even a decline in consumer confidence failed to shake the enthusiasm of buyers.


And, this is supposed to get us all running to scoop up what's left because the "buyers are buying?" HA...those "buyers."

[ozymandius]

29. I smell a sucker rally.

Wait for the witching hour (3pm) and we'll see how solid trading confidence is.

[54anickel]

52. Nothing OPEC can do to bring oil down (Didn't get the memo again)

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/story.jsp?id=2004092723120002500402&dt=20040927231200&w=RTR&coview=

JAKARTA, Sept 28 (Reuters) - OPEC is powerless to stop the rise in oil prices at the moment although it has about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity to add to supplies, president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said on Tuesday. As U.S. crude rose to a record $50.17 a barrel on Tuesday, Purnomo said he had not yet had any contact with OPEC's 10 other members.

"At the moment there's nothing we can do. OPEC has spare capacity, however, whatever we do there is no sensitivity in the market," Purnomo, who is also Indonesian oil minister, told Reuters.

"OPEC has the ability to add output. There is around 1.5 million bpd of spare capacity. Saudi Arabia has the capability," he said.

"We are worried because there is an increase in the price of goods and services because of high oil prices. We are watching closely the price movement. If prices continue to go up, there will be a danger to the global economy," Purnomo said.

bit more, something about a recession....

[54anickel]

23. Bergsten’s Five Horsemen Of The Apocalypse

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

By popular consensus amongst today’s market pundits, there any number of factors, either in isolation or some combination, which could conspire to bring about economic calamity. Few have discussed these problems more succinctly than C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, notes the Mineweb journalist, Barry Sergeant. Sergeant drew our attention to a recent edition of The Economist, in which Bergsten cited five major risks posed to the global economy today: the US fiscal deficit, China, the growing possibility of an oil shock, a growing US current account deficit and, related to this issue, rising trade protectionism.

Sergeant very cleverly likens these conditions to the five horsemen of a possible new economic apocalypse. He notes Bergsten’s observation that the global economy “faces a number of major risks that, especially in combination, could throw it back into rapid inflation, high interest rates, much slower growth or even recession, rising unemployment, currency conflict and protectionism. Even worse contingencies could of course be envisaged,” such as further terrorist attacks or a collapse in US productivity triggered by an oil shock. The good news from Bergsten is that “fortunately, policy initiatives are available that would avoid or minimise the costs of the most evident risks.”

It is hear that we tend to part company with Bergsten. Rarely have so many individual economic conundrums given rise to something approaching macroeconomic policy checkmate. Taken in isolation, there may indeed be available initiatives which could alleviate each individual threat outlined by Bergsten. The difficulty, however, is that the correct policy response to one problem may exacerbate another, leaving global monetary and financial authorities in a position to embrace nothing better than a least bad option. This is hardly a comforting thought given today’s fraught global economic environment.

Onward to the “five horsemen”: Last week we discussed the growing risks posed to global economic growth and geopolitical instability as a consequence of rising oil prices, so we safely can move on the other four.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Global: Collision Course

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20040927-mon.html#anchor0

The world economy is on a collision course. The United States -- long the main engine of global growth and finance -- has squandered its domestic saving and is now drawing freely on the rest of the world’s saving pool. East Asian central banks -- especially those in Japan and China -- have become America’s financiers of last resort. But in doing so, they are subjecting their own economies to mounting strains and increasingly serious risk. Breaking points are always tough to pinpoint with any precision. Most serious students of international finance know that these trends are unsustainable. But like any trend that has gone to excess, a group of “new paradigmers” has emerged with a compelling argument as to why these imbalances can persist in perpetuity. That is usually the sign that the denial is about to crack -- possibly sooner rather than later.

Unfortunately, the case for mounting US imbalances is easy to document. Reflecting an unprecedented shortfall of domestic saving -- a net national saving rate that fell to 0.4% in early 2003 and since has rebounded to just 1.9% in mid-2004 -- the US has turned to imported saving in order to finance economic growth. And since it must run external deficits to attract that capital, it should not be surprising that the US current account deficit hit a record 5.7% of GDP in 2Q04. Yes, America has had a current-account problem for quite some time. But there has been an ominous change in the character of these external deficits. For starters, the US current-account deficit is no longer the means by which America funds investment-led growth that drives increases in productive capacity. In 2003, net investment in the business sector -- the portion of capital spending left over after allowing for the replacement of worn-out capacity -- remained an astonishing 60% below levels prevailing in 2000. Meanwhile, the government’s overall saving rate -- federal and state and local units, combined -- went from a surplus of 2.4% in late 2000 to a deficit of 3.1% in mid-2004. Over the same period, overly-extended US consumers have wiped out any vestiges of saving -- taking the personal saving rate down to a rock-bottom 0.6% in July 2004. In short, America is no longer using surplus foreign saving to support “good” growth. Instead, it is currently absorbing about 80% of the world’s surplus saving in order to finance open-ended government budget deficits and the excess spending of American consumers (see my 23 August dispatch, “The Funding of America”).

The international financial implications of America’s mounting imbalances are equally astonishing. It wasn’t all that long ago that the United States was the world’s largest creditor. In 1980, America’s net international investment position -- the broadest measure of the accumulated claims that the US has on the rest of the world less those that the rest of the world has on the US -- stood at a surplus of $360 billion. By the end of 2003, that surplus had morphed into a deficit of -$2.4 trillion, or 24% of US GDP. This transformation from the world’s largest creditor to the world’s largest debtor is, of course, a direct outgrowth of year after year of ever widening current-account deficits. Moreover, reflecting the particularly sharp widening of America’s current-account deficit in the past year -- an external shortfall of 5.7% at mid-2004 that is already running 1.2 percentage points above the 4.5% gap prevailing at year-end 2003 -- America’s net international indebtedness could easily hit 28% of GDP by the end of this year.

Unless the US quickly addresses its current-account deficit problem, foreign debt is set to rise for as far as the eye can see. The best forecasts I have seen of this possibility are presented in a recent paper by Nouriel Roubini of NYU and Brad Setser of Oxford (see “The US as a Net Debtor: The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances,” September 2004). Under three alternative saving and current-account scenarios, Roubini-Setser bracket America’s net indebtedness in a range of 40-50% of GDP by 2008. This is hardly a result to take lightly. As scaled by exports -- a good way to measure the ability of any economy to service its external debt -- Roubini and Setser point out that US international indebtedness could be closing in on 300% of exports by the end of 2004. By way of comparison, pre-crisis debt-to-export ratios hit about 400% in Argentina and Brazil. Of course, America is far from a “banana republic” -- or is it?

more...

[ozymandius]

28. 10:59 numbers

Traders seem to be getting comfortable with bad reports. "Bad reports? What bad reports?"

Dow 9,997.82 +9.28 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 1,857.75 -2.13 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,103.87 +0.35 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 3.976% -0.021
NYSE Volume 390,872,000
Nasdaq Volume 495,984,000

[UpInArms]

30. 11:00 blather

11:00AM: Indices dip into the red across the board but still show resilience and bounce off lows of the day...no panic selling evident as trade remains orderly...talk is also now turning a bit to the presidential debate set for Thursday...commodity sectors are doing well today as gold, aluminum, metals, steel, and oil top the gainers lists...NYSE Adv/Dec 1657/1267, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1264/1383

[UpInArms]

31. 11:14 EST numbers (What?? Me Worry?)

Dow 10,011.55 +23.01 (+0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,860.11 +0.23 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,104.99 +1.47 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 3.983% -0.014

[54anickel]

33. China hurting Mexico (Race to the bottom?)

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0928mexico-china.html

snip>

It's a common sentiment these days in Mexico, which has lost thousands of jobs to China and is now seeing a flood of Chinese goods on its shelves. Local companies are urging a "Buy Mexican" campaign, and opposition politicians accuse the government of signing dubious trade agreements with China.

Meanwhile, Mexican media mournfully mark every new sign of Chinese dominance, such as the increase in Chinese-made fireworks and Mexican flags during this year's Independence Day celebration. In the latest affront, government agents on Sept. 8 seized a shipment containing tons of statues of the Virgin of Guadalupe, Mexico's Roman Catholic patron, illegally imported from China.

snip>

But most Mexican companies are now at a crossroads, and they need to start moving out of the assembly business and into areas that require more skill, like design and engineering, economists say.

Some companies have already started. Mexican foundries and machining shops are taking on demanding aerospace work that was previously done by small firms in the United States, and some electronics assembly plants are tackling more complicated projects, such as building network routers.

more...

[54anickel]

34. Oil: The beginning of the end?

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/business/9764243.htm

snip>

How much oil is there?

The oil industry calls Campbell a crackpot. Since he began writing about a looming peak, the industry notes, he has progressively postponed his predicted date, from 1995 to 2005. This roughness of the numbers, the industry says, points to a more fundamental problem with the peak-oil theory: It underestimates the power of technology to find more oil - indeed, to broaden the concept of oil itself.

That this debate can occur points to a striking fact: Nobody really knows how much oil exists. More to the point, nobody knows how much can be gotten out of the ground. Much of the oil lies in places with volatile politics, including the Middle East, Russia and Africa. Further complicating the calculation: Beyond the pool of conventional oil that the industry can easily extract today lie vast stores of hydrocarbons that, until recently, haven't been thought of as oil. Among them: tar-soaked sands in Canada and oil-laden shale rock in places including the western United States.

So far, over the approximately 150 years since the first oil well was drilled, the world has burned through about 900 billion barrels. Campbell thinks the world will be able to pump out about that much more. The industry, however, contends Campbell is being far too pessimistic. Exxon Mobil Corp., for instance, estimates there are something like 14 trillion barrels of fossil fuel still in the ground, including the tar-soaked sands and other nonconventional forms. It figures the industry can extract a good chunk of that.

If Campbell and his colleagues are right, then nations should rush to promote fuel efficiency to minimize economic upheaval. If they're wrong, but the world follows their advice anyway, then huge sums of money could be wasted jumping to alternative energy sources that, while environmentally friendly, would be more expensive than oil.

more...

Heaven forbid we waste a bit of money on something that would be to the mutual benefit of all. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

37. "huge sums of money could be wasted"

What a load of shit! Wasted? Really!! This kind of talk makes me angry. Like willful ignorance.

It seems that not long ago, petroleum was considered "alternative energy". Consider the trillions invested in exploiting fossil fuels, including the intervention of the military-industrial complex to secure governments, land and transportation of the stuff.

[54anickel]

44. Guess ignorance IS bliss. This sort of reminds me of the leaky roof

tale my dad used to say. You can't go out there and fix it while it's raining, and if it ain't raining, there's no need to.

[54anickel]

40. Bubble in crude?

A minority of analysts say oil is way too high and prices could tumble -- but will they?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/28/markets/bubble_crude/

snip>

A small number of market watchers, however, think most of oil's gains -- if not all -- has been unjustified.

"A sudden and violent crash in crude oil prices cannot be dismissed," Economy.com senior economist Thorsten Fischer wrote in a note this week. Fischer said Saudi Arabia's promise Tuesday to raise its production capacity by a half-million barrels per day proved there was plenty of spare capacity in the world.

Another oil-price bear, Bear Stearns analyst Frederick Leuffer, agrees, and has long predicted that the average price of oil in 2005 will be about $25. Earlier this year, that was a consensus forecast. Now it's in the distinct minority.

snip>

Leuffer also said that terror attacks and sabotage probably won't cause much disruption to the world's oil supply; they haven't in the past.

The bear case for oil also hinges in part on the belief that the market has been infiltrated by hedge funds and other speculators looking to ride a hot market. In this way, the bears argue, the oil market has begun to look an awful lot like the bubbly tech-stock market of the late 1990s. :eyes:

Not so sanguine

But most analysts disagree, and Merrill Lynch chief energy strategist Michael Rothman noted this week that hedge funds have actually been reducing their exposure to the oil market since the spring.

Oil bulls agree there is a hefty "fear premium" built into oil, keeping the price perhaps $10 above where supply and demand would indicate.

more...

[54anickel]

35. 12:17 lunchtime check

Dow 10,038.76 +50.22 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 1,864.46 +4.58 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,107.28 +3.76 (+0.34%)
10-yr Bond 4.01% +0.013
30-yr Bond 4.797% +0.025
(Hmmm treasuries dropping just before the auctions of today and tomorrow?)
NYSE Volume 628,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 732,517,000

12:00PM: The stock market opened higher this morning even as oil pushed through $50 a barrel, and has shown enough resilience to hang on to gains at mid-day...after opening higher, the indices dipped on news at 10:00 ET that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell to 96.8 from 98.7 in August...an small increase was expected...the led to downward momentum that took all the indices into negative territory, but stocks bounced back...oil came off its highs, so that helped a bit, but traders also suggest that it is just a small bounce after yesterday's losses...
also helping is that bonds remain firm, as the 10-year is +1/32 to yield 3.99%...Dell (DELL 35.27 +0.19) reaffirmed profit guidance, and Target (TGT 45.43 -0.32) said September same store sales are on plan...but Cypress Semiconductor (CY 8.67 -0.22) warned, and the SOX semiconductor index is down 1.3%...there is not much corporate news overall and the focus is clearly on oil, making the gains today somewhat surprising...volume remains light...NYSE Adv/Dec 1816/1231, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1475/1330

11:30AM: Resilience continues...oil is well off its highs and only up 8 cents now, so that might be helping...volume remains very low, and is on trend for another 1.2 billion or so day on the NYSE...Nasdaq volume is running only slightly ahead of that, as was the case yesterday...NYSE Adv/Dec 1710/1319, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1366/1375

[54anickel]

36. Dollar may help gold average $435 in '05-economist

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6355356

DENVER, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The price of gold is likely to extend its three-year upward trend next year, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and the possible diversification by dollar-laden Asian central banks into bullion, international economist and gold price forecaster Martin Murenbeeld said.

Even without any gold purchases by the central banks of China, Japan and Korea, Murenbeeld predicted, bullion could average $435 an ounce next year as economic fundamentals in the United States pointed to continued pressure on its currency.

snip>

Murenbeeld said he was a dollar "bear" because the United States needs enormous foreign capital inflows for the dollar to remain stable, or to rise, in the face of a yawning current account deficit that is approaching 6 percent of gross domestic product.

"If these foreign capital flows are hard to come by, the dollar cannot rise," he said. "Will the world continue to invest heavily -- $650 billion and rising -- into the U.S. each year, or will it not?"

Murenbeeld ascribed a 55 percent probability to gold averaging $435 in 2005 and a 30 percent chance of a mean price of $470.

[54anickel]

38. Gold Rises to Five-Week High on Comex as Hedge Against Surging Oil Price

Can't have THAT happen!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York rose to a five-week high as oil prices surged above $50 a barrel, boosting the precious metal's appeal as a hedge against inflation.

Crude oil jumped to a record $50.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after threats from Nigerian rebels started to curb output in Africa's largest oil-producing country as demand surges. Gold has climbed 3.5 percent in the past three weeks, partly because oil soared 15 percent.

``The inflationary aspect of high crude prices is supportive of gold,'' said Frank Lesh, a trader at Rand Financial Services Inc. in Chicago. ``We have to wake up soon or later to higher prices.''

Gold futures for December delivery rose $2.90, or 0.7 percent, to $413.60 an ounce at 9:49 a.m. on the Comex division of the Nymex after reaching $414.90, the highest for a most-active contract since Aug. 23.

[UpInArms]

39. Fannie Mae: Restatement up to SEC

Embattled lender says restating earnings not currently discussed; whistleblower to testify Oct. 6.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/28/news/fortune500/fannie_mae.reut/

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Whether mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae will have to restate its earnings as a result of accounting problems cited by regulators will be up to the Securities and Exchange Commission to consider, a company executive said Tuesday.

Daniel Mudd, the company's chief operating officer, said an earnings restatement has not been discussed in talks with the company's financial regulator, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

"It is not contemplated in discussions we have had to date," he told reporters after a speech.

<snip>

Meanwhile, a Fannie Mae official who raised concerns about the company's accounting with government regulators will testify before a congressional panel Oct. 6, a committee aid said Tuesday.

...more...

Ooooh, the SEC! I bet those guys at Fannie Mae are really scared now! /sarcasm

Since we no longer have any governmental regulation under this mal-administration, I suppose that nothing will change and bullshit walks and talks and the markets will embrace this as yet another sign of our "strong" economy. :puke:

[UpInArms]

42. 2:02 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,035.52 +46.98 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 1,861.65 +1.77 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,106.59 +3.07 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.021% +0.024

2:00PM: The economic calendar shows a revision to real GDP due tomorrow, but this is the second revision and is not likely to be large...on Thursday, Personal Income and new claims data will be out, but probably won't have much impact either...the Chicago PMI report on Thursday and the national ISM index on Friday are likely to have more impact...the ISM will provide an early read on national September manufacturing conditions...NYSE Adv/Dec 1982/1239, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1550/1417

1:25PM: The earnings schedule is light for the rest of the week...Micron (MU) after the close tomorrow, and PepsiCo (PEP) before the open Thursday are the headliners...more significantly, warnings have slowed considerably...aggregate earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 now stand at about 14% for year-over-year growth...that is down about 1% from a month ago due to warnings, but it is pretty typical for estimates to come down a bit during this period...NYSE Adv/Dec 2035/1169, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1586/1323

1:00PM: Commodity industries remain the big stock sector winners today...mining, steel, gold, chemicals, aluminum, and oil are all doing well today...oil prices are perhaps leading to speculation as to what commodity could be next...sectors still in the red include semiconductors, communications equipment, and computer networks...NYSE Adv/Dec 2039/1131, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1596/1299

12:30PM: In addition to the regulars, the Nasdaq most actives list today also includes AtheroGenics (AGIX 37.21 +14.05), which released a study suggesting that its experimental drug helped cut plaque in the treatment of heart disease...the NYSE list includes low priced Calpine (CPN 2.94 -0.20), Lucent (LU 3.10 -0.01), and Nortel (NT 3.28 +0.02)...regulars such as Citigroup, Pfizer, and General Electric are further down the list on this low volume day... NYSE Adv/Dec 2005/1150, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1592/1286

(added 2:00 blather on edit)

[54anickel]

43. 2:04 numbers & yada

Dow 10,026.37 +37.83 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,860.04 +0.16 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,105.50 +1.98 (+0.18%)
10-yr Bond 4.021% +0.024
30-yr Bond 4.814% +0.042
NYSE Volume 867,942,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,569,000

2:00PM: The economic calendar shows a revision to real GDP due tomorrow, but this is the second revision and is not likely to be large...on Thursday, Personal Income and new claims data will be out, but probably won't have much impact either...the Chicago PMI report on Thursday and the national ISM index on Friday are likely to have more impact...the ISM will provide an early read on national September manufacturing conditions...NYSE Adv/Dec 1982/1239, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1550/1417
1:25PM: The earnings schedule is light for the rest of the week...Micron (MU) after the close tomorrow, and PepsiCo (PEP) before the open Thursday are the headliners...more significantly, warnings have slowed considerably...aggregate earnings forecasts for the S&P 500 now stand at about 14% for year-over-year growth...that is down about 1% from a month ago due to warnings, but it is pretty typical for estimates to come down a bit during this period...NYSE Adv/Dec 2035/1169, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1586/1323

1:00PM: Commodity industries remain the big stock sector winners today...mining, steel, gold, chemicals, aluminum, and oil are all doing well today...oil prices are perhaps leading to speculation as to what commodity could be next...sectors still in the red include semiconductors, communications equipment, and computer networks...NYSE Adv/Dec 2039/1131, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1596/1299

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2021 (59%) 1576 (50%)
Declines 1219 (35%) 1404 (44%)
Unchanged 159 (4%) 154 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 487 (59%) 411 (42%)
Down Vol* 325 (39%) 529 (55%)
Unch. Vol* 9 (1%) 17 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 142 43
New Lo's 47 63

[54anickel]

47. 2:42 and flyin' high!

Dow 10,056.91 +68.37 (+0.68%)
Nasdaq 1,865.23 +5.35 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,109.31 +5.79 (+0.52%)
10-yr Bond 4.014% +0.017
30-yr Bond 4.806% +0.034
NYSE Volume 982,209,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,108,663,000

2:30PM: With an hour and one-half to go, volume is at 925 million on the NYSE...that suggests another day of about 1.25 billion...August averaged 1.24 billion per day, but that is typically a slow month...volume was expected to pick up in September, but has yet to do so appreciably...volume in March was 1.48 billion per day, and was running regularly over 1.4 billion a day in the early months of the year...NYSE Adv/Dec 1992/1237, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1548/1438

[54anickel]

45. A bowling alley for Christmas?

Sheesh, another sign of a bit too much liquidity in the system?

http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/28/news/midcaps/neiman_christmas/

Yes, for $1.45 million; retailer's fantasy gift guide also features suit of armor and zeppelin.
September 28, 2004: 1:00 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Merry Christmas! Here's your very own $1.45 million bowling alley.

If that doesn't make your gift fantasy come true, you could also hope for a $20,000 custom-fitted suit of armor.

The two items are just a sampling of the ultimate fantasy gifts featured in luxury retailer Neiman Marcus' 78th annual Christmas book of the luxury gifts for which money is no object.

"For our customers, the arrival of The Neiman Marcus Christmas Book marks the official start of the holiday season," Brendan Hoffman, president and CEO of Neiman Marcus Direct, the retailer's online division, said in a statement.

"This year's gift assortment is more innovative and luxurious than ever before and is available in its entirety online," she added.

more...

[TrogL]

48. Loonie Watch

http://www.angelfire.com/ab/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-08-30 Monday, August 30 0.759071 USD
2004-08-31 Tuesday, August 31 0.759532 USD
2004-09-01 Wednesday, September 1 0.765052 USD
2004-09-02 Thursday, September 2 0.769527 USD
2004-09-03 Friday, September 3 0.768935 USD
2004-09-07 Tuesday, September 7 0.776277 USD
2004-09-08 Wednesday, September 8 0.774893 USD
2004-09-09 Thursday, September 9 0.776518 USD
2004-09-10 Friday, September 10 0.776398 USD
2004-09-13 Monday, September 13 0.769231 USD
2004-09-14 Tuesday, September 14 0.773994 USD
2004-09-15 Wednesday, September 15 0.770001 USD
2004-09-16 Thursday, September 16 0.774353 USD
2004-09-17 Friday, September 17 0.769112 USD
2004-09-20 Monday, September 20 0.772559 USD
2004-09-21 Tuesday, September 21 0.776036 USD
2004-09-22 Wednesday, September 22 0.780275 USD
2004-09-23 Thursday, September 23 0.78235 USD
2004-09-24 Friday, September 24 0.783515 USD
2004-09-27 Monday, September 27 0.785053 USD
2004-09-28 Tuesday, September 28 0.784068 USD


A slight dip today despite the kind words quoted above.

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's breakout above last January's high crossing at .7800. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If this summer's rally continues, a test of weekly resistance crossing at .7863 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .7771 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.


Could be sticker shock over gasoline prices.

[54anickel]

49. Rates Rise in Treasury Bill Auction

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/09/27/ap1562458.html

Interest rates on short-term Treasury securities rose in Monday's auction.

The Treasury Department sold $19 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 1.710 percent, up from 1.685 percent last week. An additional $17 billion was sold in six-month bills at a rate of 1.950 percent, up from 1.870 percent.

The three-month rate was the highest since June 10, 2002, when the bills sold for 1.720 percent. The six-month rate was the highest since April 8, 2002, when the rate was 1.975.

The new discount rates understate the actual return to investors - 1.741 percent for three-month bills with a $10,000 bill selling for $9,956.78 and 1.997 percent for a six-month bill selling for $9,901.42.

bit more...


Treasury prices decline in afternoon selling

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=23287000&brk=1

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasury prices reversed course and declined Tuesday in afternoon trade amid selling by speculative funds cleaning up their positions in an oversold market.

snip>

Prices had trended higher much of the session, bolstered by rising energy costs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy and interest-rate moves by Federal Reserve.

Limiting gains, however, were thoughts of an oversold market, with both Banc of America Securities and Morgan Stanley this week stating they would reduce their fixed-income positions.

Treasury prices popped higher after the Conference Board reported its consumer confidence index dipped for a second month in September, falling to 96.8 from an upwardly revised 98.7 in August. Read the Economic Report.

snip>

The government auctioned $19 billion in 4-week bills Tuesday afternoon, with the bills awarded at 1.59 percent vs. 1.605 percent the prior week. The bid cover stood at 2.44, a mild decline from the 2.68 and 3.06 ratios during the previous two weeks.

The Treasury Department reported indirect bidder participation declined to 10.1 percent from 20 percent last week, although higher than the 2.1 percent tallied two weeks ago.

The results of Wednesday's 2-year note auction will be of far more interest to the bond market, market observers said.

So far this year, indirect bidders have taken between 40 percent and 60 percent of the 2-year notes, and traders "remain fearful that overseas demand will dry up and force domestic accounts to shoulder more of the load," said analysts at Action Economics.

[54anickel]

50. 3:05 and WTF, is this some sort of end of qtr flush of auto-pilot $$$?

Dow 10,076.30 +87.76 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 1,868.65 +8.77 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,110.88 +7.36 (+0.67%)
10-yr Bond 4.017% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.806% +0.034
NYSE Volume 1,062,155,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,186,911,000

3:00PM: There is little hard news to which to ascribe the afternoon rally, so traders call it technical, or a bounce after recent losses...it certainly wasn't due to oil, which closed up 26 cents at $49.90...the corporate news was also light and there is nothing in particular to look forward to tomorrow morning...earnings warnings have eased, and there is a decent underlying tone to the market but the resilience today is nonetheless surprising...NYSE Adv/Dec 2101/1157, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1646/1365

[54anickel]

51. U.S. Stocks Rise; Energy Shares Climb Amid Record Oil Prices

Now rising oil prices are a good thing. :crazy:

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, led by energy companies, after oil futures climbed above $50 a barrel and Valero Energy Corp. boosted its profit forecast.

Metal stocks including Alcoa Inc. and Newmont Mining Corp. rallied as an industry consultancy said global demand will bolster prices of aluminum and gold.

``If oil prices stay here or slightly lower, energy stocks can provide some leadership for the market,'' said Bill Dezellem, who helps manage $1 billion at Davidson Investment Advisors in Great Falls, Montana. ``The economy is holding up better than what many prognosticators anticipate.''

snip>

``Once we get closer to the election, once energy prices begin to cool off a little bit, consumers will feel a little bit better about the pressure on their budgets,'' said Christine Callies, who oversees $41 billion as chief market strategist at New York-based Bessemer Trust Co. ``It's a temporary setback.''

snip>

Energy Companies

Energy stocks may rise further because their share prices do not reflect all the benefit of the increase in oil prices, said Tom McManus, chief investment strategist at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York.

``We still like energy stocks,'' said McManus. ``Energy stocks are attractively priced.''

Analysts have boosted their profit estimates for oil producers, drillers and refiners as oil prices rallied. Earnings for the companies are expected to rise 41 percent in the third quarter and 36 percent in the fourth, according to Thomson Financial. That's up from a July 1 estimate of 16 percent and 14 percent, respectively.

[happynewyear]

53. low risk fund paying out *tip*

hey 54anickel,

Check out this T. Rowe Price Fund ... PRNEX. I have a minimal investment in it and it is a low risk fund invested in materials, new ideas for energy, oil and gold (NEM).

Cheers!

baldearg

[54anickel]

55. Very cool! Looks like another nice diversification strategy fund, there

seem to be more of these types of funds cropping up on the market. I haven't looked at the T. Rowe offering specifically though. I do hold a small percentage of a similar offering by another fund as part of that bloody 401K I rolled over.

[happynewyear]

57. I found it accidentally

I was going to invest in it earlier this year but decided to hold off. Its been going up steadily and even on days when the DOW is down, it only loses small amounts I've noticed; in fact many times it pays when the DOW drops being NEM is their largest holding and other "hedge" funds.

I'm going to keep watching this no-load fund and it it begins to drop, I'll put more into it.

Vanguard has a VGENX energy fund that you used to be able to buy into for $3,000.00 but now it has a $25,000.00 minimum to get in and you have to hold it for a year basically.

With PRNEX you can get in/out of it easy enough should the need arise and the buy-in is $2500.00. That is another thing I do like about it, easy in/easy out and a rock bottom buy in price.

I'm liking T. Rowe Price a lot more than Vanguard these days. They put me through hell when I bought some bonds awhile back and I didn't like it one bit. When I told them to sell the investment and put it back in my bank acct. they backed off quickly with their Patriot Act crap! Ack!

[54anickel]

58. Only advice I'm willing to give is proceed with due caution in any

investment strategy these days. I'm with KoKo, the matress is looking good these days! :evilgrin:

(Vanguard has a 25K minimum? Holy sh*t - that's a hedge fund for the working class?)

[UpInArms]

54. 3:40 EST (WTF??)

Dow 10,082.63 +94.09 (+0.94%)
Nasdaq 1,871.00 +11.12 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,110.69 +7.17 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.012% +0.015

3:30PM: The surprisingly strong late rally continues, with the Dow now solidly above 10,000 after hitting a low of 9,977.92 earlier today...the S&P is within a fraction of where it started the year...volume has picked up in what has turned into one of the more volatile sessions in recent days as a number of stocks catch trading action based on chart considerations...NYSE Adv/Dec 2189/1097, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1743/1290

(added blather)

[54anickel]

56. Nice!!! S&P near where it started the year at. Well, alright then! Let's

PARTY!!! :party: :smoke:

I want some of what they're smokin' these days!

[WillyT]

60. OK... I'm Lame At This, But...

Consumer confidence is down 2% when it was supposed to be UP 2%, in a 4% reversal of fortune. Oil hovers around $50 a barrel all day. And the markets go UP???

:wtf:

Is it PPT time again???

:shrug:

[54anickel]

61. Not sure. Wouldn't think the PPT has that much ammo, but then again

look at how $$$ moved from bonds today. Could be the big players (banks and hedge funds) are in on the act. Gotta get those Treasuries looking attractive to foreign buyers again tomorrow. :shrug:

[54anickel]

59. U.S. stocks surge after Caterpillar boosts outlook

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040928/df043d25f9bed33d856728155d7535d3_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Investors snapped up stocks in the final hour of trading Tuesday emboldened by an improved outlook from Caterpillar and some relative stability in crude prices.

snip>

Stocks rose to their best levels after Dow component Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT - News) , which popped 4.1 percent, said continued strength in worldwide machine and engine sales would boost 2004 sales higher than previously estimated.

The heavy equipment maker said 2004 revenue would be up 25 to 30 percent, rather than just 25 percent, over the $22.76 billion it reported in 2003.

The initial spike, however, came after crude futures failed to close above the new psychologically key $50 a barrel mark after crossing that threshold for the first time ever late Monday. The November contract closed up 26 cents at $49.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. See Futures Movers.

"We've seen that many times in the past where oil closes and stock investors feel that it can't hurt them anymore because they see where it is. It's a silly reason to be a catalyst for buying stocks but the market strangely acts like that," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

[UpInArms]

63. guess those traders need to send a thank you note

to Catepillar!

Wonder what kind of day we would have had if there was just no reason at all to buy stocks.

(edited cuz I kant spull)

[54anickel]

64. We just did have that kind of day, didn't we?

[UpInArms]

65. we certainly did

and I'm not sure what type of "short covering" excuses that can be drummed up for the action, but the spinmeisters will find something pretty lame (Catepillar comes to mind) to use as a flag to cover what really went on in the pits and why.

:crazy:

[54anickel]

62. Closing time - Bargains were too good to pass up on I guess.

Dow 10,077.40 +88.86 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 1,869.87 +9.99 (+0.54%)
S&P 500 1,110.06 +6.54 (+0.59%)
10-yr Bond 4.012% +0.015
30-yr Bond 4.801% +0.029
NYSE Volume 1,397,201,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,536,325,000

Close: There is no clear explanation for the strength in the stock indices today...the markets opened modestly higher even as oil prices were higher and temporarily went through $50 a barrel...the market took a slight hit from a weaker than expected September Consumer Confidence Index reported at 10:00 ET, but then settled into modest gains through early afternoon...in the afternoon, Caterpillar (CAT 76.90 +2.48) provided a catalyst for further gains, as the company said revenue this year would be above current Wall Street estimates...

still, that was hardly in itself a reason for big gains, especially with oil closing up 26 cents at $49.90 a barrel...rather, some underlying bullishness was apparently brought forward after the declines in the indices last week and Monday...the market thus continues to show the resilience seen since mid-August...there was little corporate news of broad importance, as there were no major earnings warnings today...commodity-based sectors posted the best gains, while the SOX semiconductor index lost 0.9%...bonds were flat as the 10-year yield held at 4.00%...volume was moderate...NYSE Adv/Dec 2282/1032, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1897/1176

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2276 (65%) 1908 (59%)
Declines 1023 (29%) 1176 (36%)
Unchanged 177 (5%) 148 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 942 (69%) 796 (52%)
Down Vol* 398 (29%) 707 (46%)
Unch. Vol* 21 (1%) 21 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 191 63
New Lo's 51 72

Have a great night everyone. :hi:

[ozymandius]

66. I stand by my earlier comment.

I smell a sucker rally a-comin'. There's no rationale for these numbers except for driving them up to snare a little profit later this week. That's the extent of legitimate rationale in my book. This happens too often.

I wonder how much JP Morgan Chase invested in hedge funds betting the market will take a dive?

Have a great evening, all.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

67. Agreed, there is something in the air. It will be interesting to watch

over the next few days. Interested in seeing what the wrap-up for today may have to say as well.

[UpInArms]

69. ino.com's closing blather

The NASDAQ Composite index closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday after testing support marked by the 40- day moving average crossing at 1849.48. The upper-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. Closes below the 40-day moving average the 40-day moving average crossing at 1849.48 would open the door for a possible test of the August 31st reaction low crossing at 1819.62 later this fall. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

The December S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it rebounded off support marked by the 40-day moving average crossing at 1102.59. The high- range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. If December extends the decline off last week's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 1117.98 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are still possible.

The Dow posted a key reversal up on Tuesday due to short covering as it rebounded off support marked by the 62% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 10,005. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-September rally crossing at 9,920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10,147 would temper the bearish outlook in the Dow.

[54anickel]

70. Wonderful, simply wonderful...

Short covering across the board, steady to firmer openings expected for Wednesday, while Stochastics & RSI remain bearish.

Yep, sounds like a sucker's rally in the making alright.

[54anickel]

68. Dollar gains against yen as oil eyed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDB02C819%2D50EC%2D47C2%2D99D4%2D6517EC64E73A%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. dollar scaled a six-week high against the yen on Tuesday, as record-setting oil-price gains were seen as a potential drag on the Japanese economy.

But expensive energy could also potentially slow U.S. growth and concerns for this scenario led to defensive dollar investing against the euro. Investors also sought out the "high yielding" British pound, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.

snip>

Going for yield

"With spiking energy prices perceived as a threat to global growth, traders are favoring more defensive positions and are seeking high-yielding currencies," said Alex Beuzelin, senior market analyst with Ruesch International.

High-yielding currencies are linked to countries offering higher interest rates, which means a higher payout to foreign investors.

U.S. interest rates are expected to rise, but so are already higher rates in Canada and Australia, and potentially, in the United Kingdom, in coming months.

"An environment of sustained elevated oil prices is detrimental to the dollar because it could create further headwinds against the U.S. economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to scale back its monetary policy tightening cycle," said Beuzelin. "The flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve is also tarnishing the appeal of the greenback."

more...

[fedsron2us]

71. All these oil trades have to be conducted in dollars

High energy prices might actually create demand for the currency. It will also relieve the Asian economies of some of their dollar surplus. Oil prices could also act as an informal tariff on global trade by pushing up transportation costs. This could undermine some of the wage cost advantages that countries such as China enjoy. On the other hand the Asians might decide to sell some of their holdings in US government bonds in order to pay for their energy. Such a move would weaken the dollar It will be interesting to see how this pans out.