Latest Polls on Brad Carson(OK Senate Race)

[RedEarth]

OK-Sen: Latest Carson internal poll
by kos
Tue Sep 28th, 2004 at 06:14:40 GMT

I've been leaked info on the Brad Carson campaign's latest internalls, and they offer further reason for optimism in this very tough race. I don't have dates or MoE, but the trend poll is from September 6.
Carson (D) 44 (36)
Coburn (R) 39 (42)
Wow. There's more. In the first CD, strong Republican territory, Carson is making a play at winning it outright.
1st CD
Coburn 47
Carson 41

In the 2nd, more (D) friendly territory (Eastern OK), Carson has a strong 55 percent, well en route to the 60 percent or so the campaign expects to win (after undecideds break his way).
The 3rd CD is heavy Republican, but also hurting economically. This is territory that Carson is contesting fiercely. And it's also the place that Coburn told a town hall that it wasn't the feds' job to help the region recover economically. Apparently, that's all hurting him in the area, because Carson is now leading in the region.

3rd CD
Carson 43
Coburn 38

The typical Republican wins 55-60 percent of the vote in this CD. At this rate, Carson may take it. And if Carson wins the 3rd, it becomes just about impossible for Coburn to pull this thing off.
The campaign thinks it needs 52 percent in the 4th CD to win the election. The latest numbers:

4th CD
Carson 46 (39)
Coburn 29 (38)



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/9/28/21440/1653

[annabanana]

1. mmph.....

Wouldn't THAT be a nice ol' kick in the red pants to administer to the GOP.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. We're taking OK, AK, IL, and LA

And we're going to keep NC, NV, SD, and FL. We'll likely lose SC and GA, but that's still enough to take back the Senate.

[Beetwasher]

3. You Know What?

We could very well take SC and GA too...But even without them, you're right, we'll retake the Senate!! Woohooooooo!!!!!

[DCCyclone]

18. South Carolina and Georgia are looking VERY bad......

Tenenbaum remains down by a double-digit margin in the last poll in that race. There was an internal Democratic poll that showed her cutting the deficit to single digits awhile back, but I was always suspicious of that. At this point, it would be a MAJOR upset if Tenenbaum knocks off DeMint.

Georgia is not in play at all, as Majette only occasionally polls as high as 40% in that race, while Isaakson never drops below 50%.

Those two seats are losses.

We need to pick up all four between AK, OK, CO, and IL, AND hold on to FL and LA, to take control of the Senate. The needed outcomes in those 6 races are very doable, but it's tight in ALL of those races except IL where Obama has it locked up.

[Bandit]

7. Just how are we taking AK?

Do you even know what state AK is? It is possible that AK may have a new Democratic Senator but no way in hell is their one and only congressman Don Young ever going to be defeated by an unknown Democrat. AK is a very solid Republican State.

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Bandit]

13. I do pay attention to Alaska politics as that is where I live

There is no way in hell that "We are taking AK". It is a slight possibility that we may gain a Senatoral seat but that is getting shakier every day. We are not even close to gaining a Congressional seat which the first post indicated. Murkowski will most probably get re-elected in '06 as this state leans very heavily Republican.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. You clearly don't know what you're talking about at all.

Murkowski is up for election NOW and is LOSING. For the love of Christ, wake up!

http://www.tonyknowles.com/news.html?id=127&PHPSESSID=3a1d78e6baf2f926fbb3470494f3294a

[DCCyclone]

15. Bandit, you are VERY confused, and wrong!......

Lisa Murkowski is up THIS November, and she's trailed Democratic nominee Tony Knowles in every poll for several months, albeit also within the margin of error in every poll. It's a tight race that could go either way, but there is no question that Knowles has appeared to have a slight edge the whole year. This thread is about the Senate, not the House, so Don Young is irrelevant to the discussion.

[Bandit]

22. When he said Murkowski was hated by Alaskans I made

The Cardinal Mistake. I assumed he was referring to Governor Murkowski since I have never heard by anyone that Lisa is hated. I hope Tony will win the election but have serious doubts. I have heard very few Knowles ads and hear Murkowski ads ten times a day every single day and have for many months now. I guess I was off in thinking the initial thread was about Congress and not the Senate. I was way off base there. I feel quite dumb now but I have seen so often here people referring to Arkansas as AK that I again made the assumption that was the case here as well. I be bad :spank:

[Hawkeye-X]

10. Don't forget CO

Salazar (D) will win the open seat for the Senate. And every GOP incumbent will see a major defeat on their seats.

Hawkeye-X

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

11. Oops, somehow I missed that!

I'm not really with it this morning.

[JoFerret]

17. This OK race may be a special case

with Coburn the Sterilizer.

[jefferson_dem]

20. I like your spirit. But LA is more of a "hold" than a "take." Remember

it is now a DEM seat and will hopefully (and likely given the latest numbers) remain so.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

21. You're right

I was thinking of it in terms of it being the key to taking the Senate and in the terms of being difficult to keep. Like I said, I'm not thinking all that clearly.

[Wednesdays]

4. Heard on local news...

Channel 9, Oklahoma City...that * has dropped 7 percent popularity in Oklahoma. If that's true, and Kerry has long coattails, Oklahoma could easily become a "swing state."

Pretty dang good, considering Oklahoma has voted GOP in 12 out of the last 13 presidential elections.

[SidDithers]

6. Send Clark to Oklahoma...

He won that primary, right? Get him out there campaigning.

Sid

[DCCyclone]

16. I'm afraid Oklahoma is not even remotely in play......

All the state polls out of Oklahoma--and there have been several over the past 2-to-3 months, have Bush ahead by something in the range of 30 percentage points--no, that's not a typo, I said THIRTY.

There is no way Oklahoma even remotely becomes a swing state, I'm afraid.

[theblasmo]

19. Forget Oklahoma This Time

Oklahoma is staunchly Repub right now. The numbers may be dropping a bit, but the only way a Democrat can get elected is to be closer to the right, as Carson is. Coburn actually tried to label him as a liberal, and it's failing miserably. And yes, Coburn did say many of the people in Oklahoma were "crapheads." Maybe next time...
David Murphy

[OKNancy]

5. Carson is doing some great ads

One is where Coburn is quoted as saying:
"This is a race between good and evil"
Next scene: Carson ( cute)and his angelic wife sitting outside, looking young, sweet and innocent and altogther happy and "normal"
He speaks and she speaks. It's a fantastic ad

THen there is the one where the announcer says, " Coburn is not far right, he's far out"

[plcdude]

8. we need more

coverage and conversation about Coburn,s lack of support for Oklahomans while in Washingtion during his tenure in the House. Voting records should demonstrate that what he is saying in his ads are not how he voted when he represented us.

[cthrumatrix]

9. Florida looks good as well Betty Castor was up on Mel Martinez (R)