Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions (consequences)

[papau]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/28/politics/28intel.html

Prewar Assessment on Iraq Saw Chance of Strong Divisions
By DOUGLAS JEHL and DAVID E. SANGER

Published: September 28, 2004


ASHINGTON, Sept. 27 - The same intelligence unit that produced a gloomy report in July about the prospect of growing instability in Iraq warned the Bush administration about the potential costly consequences of an American-led invasion two months before the war began, government officials said Monday.

The estimate came in two classified reports prepared for President Bush in January 2003 by the National Intelligence Council, an independent group that advises the director of central intelligence. The assessments predicted that an American-led invasion of Iraq would increase support for political Islam and would result in a deeply divided Iraqi society prone to violent internal conflict.

One of the reports also warned of a possible insurgency against the new Iraqi government or American-led forces, saying that rogue elements from Saddam Hussein's government could work with existing terrorist groups or act independently to wage guerrilla warfare, the officials said. The assessments also said a war would increase sympathy across the Islamic world for some terrorist objectives, at least in the short run, the officials said.

The contents of the two assessments had not been previously disclosed. They were described by the officials after two weeks in which the White House had tried to minimize the council's latest report, which was prepared this summer and read by senior officials early this month. <snip>

The assessments, meant to address the regional implications and internal challenges that Iraq would face after Mr. Hussein's ouster, said it was unlikely that Iraq would split apart after an American invasion, the officials said. But they said there was a significant chance that domestic groups would engage in violent internal conflict with one another unless an occupying force prevented them from doing so.<snip>

[booksenkatz]

1. It would have mattered not

Even if the prewar assessment had predicted locusts raining from the sky in flaming fire and blood spewing spontaneously from the orifices of every American and the seas turning to bile and tons of boiling magma pouring from St. Helens and the bowels of the earth opening up and swallowing thousands of first-born and the sky turning to blackness for all of eternity....

this cabal still would have had their oil war.

[Beausoleil]

2. They were just guessing!

n/t

[cthrumatrix]

3. all of it was ignored.....nobody accountable....plain bullshit

[DeepModem Mom]

4. I just heard this story reported worldwide on CNN International...

I'm assuming it's not getting that kind of coverage, especially on TV, domestically?

[underpants]

5. Hell! *I* knew that!

Brought to you by the Department of DUH!

[Beetwasher]

8. Indeed. "DUH!" Of The Year Award!

n/t

[Rose Siding]

6. Novak squealed about who he thinks leaked one report

in yesterday's column (I love the part at the end where he uses an analogy that equates the CIA with the Abwehr and Bush with Hitler):

snip>
Paul R. Pillar, the CIA's national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, sat down Tuesday night in a large West Coast city with a select group of private citizens. He was not talking off the cuff. Relying on a multi-paged, single-spaced memorandum, Pillar said he and his colleagues concluded early in the Bush administration that military intervention in Iraq would intensify anti-American hostility throughout Islam. This was not from a CIA retiree but an active senior official. (Pillar, no covert operative, is listed openly in the Federal Staff Directory.)

For President Bush to publicly write off a CIA paper as just guessing is without precedent. For the agency to go semi-public is not only unprecedented but shocking. George Tenet's retirement as director of Central Intelligence removed the buffer between president and agency. As the new DCI, Porter Goss inherits an extraordinarily sensitive situation.

Pillar's Tuesday night presentation was conducted under what used to be called the Lindley Rule (devised by Newsweek's Ernest K. Lindley): The identity of the speaker, to whom he spoke, and the fact that he spoke at all are secret, but the substance of what he said can be reported. This dinner, however, knocks the Lindley Rule on its head. The substance was less significant than the forbidden background details.

The Bush-CIA tension escalated Sept. 15 when the New York Times reported a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that was circulated in August (not July, as the newspaper reported), spelling out ''a dark assessment of Iraq'' with civil war as the ''worst case'' outcome. The NIE was prepared by Pillar, and well-placed sources believe Pillar leaked it, though he denied that at Tuesday night's dinner.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak27.html

[Flubadubya]

7. Will the SH*T finally stick, though?

This is really incredibly damning... well at least it would be to any other President. This just shows how callous he was to blow off even his highest of advisory offices. It shows without a doubt that he went to war without good reason.

This would utterly SINK anyone else... but I have my doubts about it even touching the Teflon Turd King. Also, the media is in such feeding frenzy mood to get the ass elected, I know they will let this one die a peaceful death. It was just mentioned on CNN, but I bet it won't last the 24-hour news cycle.

THIS COUNTRY IS SO DAMNED CORRUPT!!! I just hate it that this won't even matter. :cry: :mad:

[ejcastellanos]

9. Yet it is somehow the CIA's fault?

That is the tone of the article, especially at the end. Novak is attacking them for speaking against the president. Is the man insane? Maybe someone will book him a flight on a single engine plane this winter.

[Flubadubya]

10. Look, if Novack can justify treason...

from the White House, he certainly will defend them on any other indiscretions or villainy they may be guilty of.

Novack is probably the most blathering idiot of a partisan hack on this planet. This is a rat that would gleefully sink with the ship if need be. Ack! :puke:

[Moderator]

11. Duplicate

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=869191