It is not preditctable what will happen if troops are pulled out:

[rodeodance]

this really is good. a must read. She takes on a lot of the Aruguments that Repugs use if we withdraw. It was on Jim Lehrer News Hour last evening.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/iraq_10-23.html
.........
Predicting the chaos ahead

RAY SUAREZ: Well, as the debates have gone on certainly here in Washington about what to do next, you hear a lot of discussion of such a proposal and the reasons why it wouldn't be a good idea. Let me tick off some of them: One, that the security situation is so precarious that a strategic country, in a very critical location, could be plunged into chaos by a too precipitous withdrawal.

PHYLLIS BENNIS: The reality is that that strategic country has been plunged into chaos through this invasion and this occupation. The reality is, first of all, no one knows for sure what will happen when U.S. troops leave. It will happen whether it's right away, as I would hope it happens, or whether it's five years from now or 30 years from now.

We can't predict with any specificity, and anyone who says, "I know exactly what would happen," is lying. But what we think will happen is based on what's happening now.

And you know, Ray, how the rising violence, the spiking violence that we're seeing on a daily basis with such horror in Iraq, is operating within a much broader framework of resistance, not to another sect or another religion, but to the U.S. occupation, the U.S.-British occupation. If that broad anti-occupation resistance was ended because the occupation ended, there would be no umbrella to provide cover for those terrorist forces that are killing civilians whose agenda has nothing to do with ending occupation.

Right now, they are operating in a very privileged environment. They are operating within that broad umbrella. You know, this recent poll by the University of Maryland that indicated 61 percent of Iraqis now support attacks on American troops, that's a very serious reality.......

...........................................

Phyllis Bennis
Institute for Policy Studies
This is a fundamentally political crisis in Iraq. And getting the U.S. occupation out, ending the occupation, is the first step. It's not the last step.

[rodeodance]

1. Justifications for lost lives:

.....RAY SUAREZ: The original goal of the U.S. invasion was to achieve regime change, get rid of the Saddam Hussein government, and create a stable democracy in the heart of the Middle East. It's been suggested quite often that leaving now and leaving quickly would negate the value of the thousands of American lives lost and the hundreds of billions of dollars spent toward that end.


Phyllis Bennis
Phyllis Bennis
Institute for Policy Studies
This is a fundamentally political crisis in Iraq. And getting the U.S. occupation out, ending the occupation, is the first step. It's not the last step.

Justifications for lost lives

PHYLLIS BENNIS: Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives that have been lost, as well. But I think that that really misses the point. It's true that we were told at the end that the reason for the invasion and the occupation had to do with democracy. That was after the earlier justifications had been proved false -- weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons, et cetera, ties with al-Qaida that did not exist at that time.

The problem that we face now, I think, is how to respond to this reality. Killing more people, more young U.S. soldiers, more Iraqi civilians does not give credit to those who have already died; it simply increases the number of victims. And that's not something that I think anyone in this country should be proud of.

[Dover]

2. So, you believe the Dems (if in charge) would withdraw our troops?

I predict (as many others have) that we will not pull out anytime soon. The Dems signed on for this atrocity with full awareness and share most of the same views on foreign policy. They won't abandon the multi-billion dollar bases, the oil and other resources, the geo-strategic location, etc.

Some "reason" for staying put will be created regardless of who's in charge.

And don't forget the Basra incident when British troops, dressed as Arabs, were discovered and captured by Iraqi police doing a very good imitation of violent insurgents, only to be swiftly removed from the Iraqi jail by the Brits before they could be questioned. It may seem chaotic in Iraq, but it's a controlled chaos with a purpose....

[ClintonTyree]

3. Yeah, they can predict what will happen if we withdraw.

Just like they predicted that we would be greeted as liberators. Just like they predicted that Iraq's oil revenues would pay for the war and it wouldn't cost the American taxpayer a dime. Just like they predicted that grand monuments would be erected in honor of george bush, the liberator of their country. Just like so many other predictions they made that have not come close to being realized.

These guys need to stop predicting things. They're not very good at it.

[jimshoes]

4. Must be one of them

Unknown unknowns.