http://www.observer.com/2008/hillary-beyond-kitchen-sinkHillary Beyond the Kitchen Sink
by Steve Kornacki | April 14, 2008
snip//
This, then, is where her current balancing act comes into play. Sure, it makes sense to play up Obama’s gaffe and to hope that he might soon commit another, thereby creating the impression of a “pattern” that might unnerve Democratic voters and superdelegates. The slim chance that Clinton has of securing this year’s nomination depends on a chain of events like that playing out.
But at this point, it could actually be argued that her odds of winning the nomination in 2012 are now better than they are for 2008. But that is dependent on two things: Obama has to lose, and Clinton can’t have Democrats blaming her for Obama’s defeat. This could explain why, despite her campaign’s ominous promise of a “kitchen sink” strategy to sink Obama, Clinton has lately pursued a less overtly aggressive campaign. Sure, she is still tough on Obama when he gives her openings (as he did with his “bitter” comment), but her latest round of television ads in Pennsylvania was much softer and more biography-driven than previous spots.
In previous Democratic and Republican primaries, other candidates have been in the same spot Clinton now occupies, clinging to longshot bids that attracted widespread support but that—mathematically—were sure to fall short. Gary Hart in 1984 and Ted Kennedy in 1980 are the two most obvious examples for Democrats, while Ronald Reagan in 1976 stands out on the G.O.P. side.
But there was a key difference in those three cases: The Democrats in ’84 and ’80 and the G.O.P. in ’76 were parties in disarray, facing likely defeat in the fall and willingly plunging into civil war in the spring. Democrats in 2008, after two near misses, very badly want to this fall—and fully expect to. Hart, Kennedy and Reagan may have hurt their party’s general election prospects with prolonged and divisive primary campaigns, but they paid very little price for it. But if Obama goes down to defeat in the fall and Democrats chalk it up to the ugly campaign Clinton waged in the spring, her prospects for 2012 will be radically diminished.
This is something the Clinton campaign seems to have kept in mind lately—and, as they decide how to address Obama’s gaffe, will likely continue to keep in mind.