Civilization’s Last Chance

[Joanne98]

The Planet Is Nearing a Tipping Point on Climate Change, and It Gets Much Worse, Fast.
By Bill McKibben
Even for Americans — who are constitutionally convinced that there will always be a second act, and a third, and a do-over after that, and, if necessary, a little public repentance and forgiveness and a Brand New Start — even for us, the world looks a little terminal right now.

It’s not just the economy: We’ve gone through swoons before. It’s that gas at $4 a gallon means we’re running out, at least of the cheap stuff that built our sprawling society. It’s that when we try to turn corn into gas, it helps send the price of a loaf of bread shooting upward and helps ignite food riots on three continents. It’s that everything is so tied together. It’s that, all of a sudden, those grim Club of Rome types who, way back in the 1970s, went on and on about the “limits to growth” suddenly seem … how best to put it, right.

All of a sudden it isn’t morning in America, it’s dusk on planet Earth.

There’s a number — a new number — that makes this point most powerfully. It may now be the most important number on Earth: 350. As in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

A few weeks ago, NASA’s chief climatologist, James Hansen, submitted a paper to Science magazine with several coauthors. The abstract attached to it argued — and I have never read stronger language in a scientific paper — that “if humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm.”

Hansen cites six irreversible tipping points — massive sea level rise and huge changes in rainfall patterns, among them — that we’ll pass if we don’t get back down to 350 soon; and the first of them, judging by last summer’s insane melt of Arctic ice, may already be behind us.

http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/05/11/8875/

[leftofthedial]

1. I foresee terrible trouble

And I stay here just the same

[tama]

2. Civilization has no chance

It is the root of the problem. Civilization aka "Empire" in its core and from the beginning means elitism, centralism and militarism and it's founding prinsible is to use up Earth's biowealth, most importantly and most fatally the richness of the soil accumulated through millennia by forests. Civilization is nothing but suicidal madness on planetary scale, a planetary cancer in Earth's ecosystem.

http://www.rainbowbody.net/Finalempire/index.html

[leftofthedial]

3. well . . .

I think as long as we allow oligarchical rule (which we never seem to quite escape), some of what you say is true. Taken to the extreme, your argument is against life itself.

Capitalism (and its primitive forebears...feudalism and despotism) are unsustainable.

The challenge is for our species to develop (or perhaps evolve) before we destroy everything. It appears we are losing this round.

[crikkett]

6. welcome to DU, home of the handwringers

Sigh. People are not cancers. Civilization is not suicidal madness.

Love your life enough to use canvas bags and walk to work, turn off your lights before you leave. The exercise will do you good. I hope you find something to see along the way that is beautiful.

At the least, stop wasting your electricity by telling us all how much you hate us.

[tama]

8. Hate is waste

Especially so in war against nature, which is what civilization means, attempt by some human cultures for a very short period of time, just little more than 10 000 years, to control nature instead of adapting to nature.

Please, no need to kill the messenger, or is there? Blinded by our technosystems we have lost fundamental understanding of ecosystems, basic comprehension of the organic place of human beings in ecosystems and the whole of cosmos.

Please refute this very simple truth if you can: any organism or system (ie. "civilization") that by agricultural mining etc. destroys the fertile top soil - the foundation of all life on Earth, also human life - is suicidal in the long run. Manic capitalistic destruction of foundations of life is just the extremely short termist suicidal version of civilization. If we cannot after honest and open exploration refute this simple truth that we cannot keep on destroying soil but should start to add to it (ie. let it take care of itself so it can maintain also us together with other creatures), we should make this simple truth basis of all our thought and action. Or what does your logic tell you?

Waking up from the "Matrix" of technodream is not easy or painless, but then, consider the alternative: globalized human civilization has not only the ability but at increasing pace follows the insane logic of destroying the whole planetary ecosystem. The "primitive" federation of native peoples from which part's of US constitution were adopted from knew how to live in balance, every decision was weight on principle on how it would affect seven future generations. We don't have seven generations, civilization has reached the point of overshoot and met the limits of growth long time ago and will collapse this century.

I don't know what a sane future would be like, do we need to abandon all energy intensive high tech or are the sustainable technologies and forms of farming (eg. permaculture) that our children could learn to wisely benefit from. But these are the kind of questions we need to start asking if we want to dream of our children and their children living on Earth, with Earth.

[crikkett]

10. Sigh,

spread your little black cloud somewhere else, is what I was offering you, or go outside and get some fresh air so that it can dissipate.

Rejoin life as you were meant to be (happy) and if you're so very concerned about the health of the planet as your words proclaim, you can pick up some litter while you're out there too.

If it's organic, compost it, and you're making some primo dirt! Lookit you, part of the solution! It sure feels great to do more than bloviate!

Thanks in advance. Every little bit helps.

[tama]

11. Making it personal

Why make it personal, if not because of your own shadow of "dark cloud" you project to me?

Why take offence for spreading the word that there are certain inescapable facts from the basis that we are in this mess together? Isn't "civilized" well educated man supposed to be able to look at facts unemotionally, with pure scientific logic and empiricism? But instead of thinking you give the very emotional response of "shut up and get out".

[Homer Wells]

13. I fear you may be right

Mother Earth is dealing with a pestilence (namely, US) and soon will slough us off in self defense.

To quote Pogo, "We have met the enemy, and he is US!!!


When Gandhi was asked what he thought of Western Civilization, he remarked that he thought it would be a good idea.

Welcome to DU!!
:toast:

[tama]

14. Me being right or wrong is not important

The vital all-important - but currently (for 10000 years) destructive - relationship between soil and civilization just makes sense - both rationally and emotionally. So "civilization" needs a fundamental change of attitude towards soil (and hence all of life) if nature is to give positive meaning to the word. We cannot and should not try to "improve" nature, nature is perfect as it is.

[formercia]

4. And when the last human elites leave Earth to colonize

a distant Solar system, they will think back how a few flat-earthers with visions of a second coming set the wheels in motion for the self-destruction of the planet.

[freefall]

5. Here is the 5th recommendation.

The article is frightening enough but the fact that it took this long to make it to the greatest page is truly scary. Yes, the election is important but we face almost complete destruction of everything we depend on to support human life on Earth, which I personally believe is more important, and most of us are in denial.

Mr. McKibben is right in his description of the changes that will be necessary to guarantee that some small part of humanity survives into the next century. The fact that DUers, arguably more aware than the average citizen, are not responding to this article indicates to me that humanity hasn't got much of a chance. If there is a chance, it will be because the people force their leaders to move in the right direction, wake up to the realities of diminishing and threatened resources and take changes to protect and conserve what we have left. As long as the people remain sheeple and continue to focus their attention on anything and everything but the reality of the changes needed for survival, humanity doesn't stand a chance. It may take longer for us than for the polar bears but we are all on the endangered list.

Peace,

freefall

[tama]

9. Survivalism

Is part of the problem, part of our (self-)destructive mental landscape. "Meaning of life" is not survival, but more to do with "ask not what you can take and have, but what you can give" or something like that.

Forest is beautifull, but a forest where song and laughter of man can also be heard, is even more beautifull. What we can give is ourselves, it's not more complicated than that. But first we need to stop taking and trying to controll nature.

[MJJP21]

7. Not pessimistic

I am not as pessimistic as the article would like me to become.It's true that there are some daunting challenges but having gas at $4.00 still leaves us with gas that is priced at half what the Europeans are paying. Yes you can forget about corn to alcohol but don't forget about trash crops and junk wood into alcohol. This is far more promising as a partial solution to the fuel problem. Car makers right now can improve the fleet economy of the vehicles by elimination the 4WD option and make them FWD only. This gives up to 6 mpg improvement without retooling and should drop the cost of the vehicle way down. Combine this with no rear drive train to manufacture and half the tires will last twice as long.
Frozen methane up north holds enough BTUS to sustain the earth fuel needs for thousands of years. Lets not forget that there is huge possibilities for recovery of methane from landfills and sewer facilities.
Solar possibilities are realizing new advances almost weekly. I can go on and on but let me suggest you try reading some of this and you will see why I am optimistic about the future.
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/energy-fuels/

[ramapo]

12. I often feel quite foolish

Here is the not-so-mythical 800-pound gorilla sitting in the room with me yet I go along with my usual mundane daily activities. Here at work, everyone is mostly blissfully unaware of our true situation. The same can be said for nearly everybody I know. Sure there is some underlying realization that all is not right but there's nothing that can be fixed with a little adjusting.

Of course, what else can I do? Give Al Gore's lecture to neighborhood groups? Get some new light bulbs, buy a Prius, stop buying stuff? Would it do any good? Of course not. What it everybody did it? What is the solution?

I feel that I should be doing something important and meaningful yet I have no idea what that is. We all sit fiddling while Rome burns around us.

[tama]

15. Important and Meaningfull

I believe the change that is required is first and foremost "spiritual", in the widest sense of the word, and any individual change is just small part, or a "reflection" of more funda-mental change. Nature can still teach us, if we open up and relax, learn to discard some foolish and self-destructive belief systems (such as "we are superior to nature") and do what little we can in our life-situations based on understanding that we are organic part of Earth's ecosystem. Or rather, stop doing useless and destructive things and start taking it easier!!!

I really do understand the need to do something that is not only concrete, but very "important and meaningfull", having gone through that shit very bad way. But that is not waking up from the feeling of superiority to nature (and especially to the "sheeple" of our fellow men), waking up from that dream usually comes by attempting to do something very "important and meaningfull", hitting vainly against obstacles enough times to accept defeat. I can't save the civilization (aka world as we know it), probably nobody can. What I can do and now feel "deep" need to of something hard to describe, is to change my job and start to learn gardening. Just learning and nothing more, not giving thought to what should come next, worrying about "what after", certainly not believing that me learning gardening would make any difference and be "important and meaningfull". It just feels... "natural", something to go along.