The Catholic Factor – Will Catholics turn out for Kerry?

[kskiska]

Will John Kerry's fellow Catholics turn out for him the way they did for the last JFK?

It has been 44 years since a Catholic ran for president. In 1960, more than two-thirds of the Catholic population voted for John F. Kennedy, providing him with the slight margin of 110,000 votes over Richard Nixon. According to the National Election Study of the University of Michigan, Kennedy had lost 5 million votes because of his religion.

Once again, a JFK is running for president, but Kerry represents a one-person balanced ticket: He's Jewish and Protestant in ancestry, Catholic in religion. Will Catholics again vote for him in overwhelming numbers? The answer, I think, is that they will surely be more likely to vote for him than white Protestants -- because Catholics are more likely to vote Democratic in presidential elections than are white Protestants. There is some chance of a bump of a few percentage points because Sen. Kerry is "one of us," but not a landslide as when the issue was whether a Catholic could ever be president. There are, however, a couple of factors that could change this picture.

The miasma of folklore and mythology about Catholic voting is so thick that it is difficult to persuade the liberal elite who dominate the Democratic leadership that Catholics are still Democrats. Ever since the McGovern "Reforms" and the ejection of AFL-CIO president George Meany and Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley from the 1968 Democratic Convention, this elite has always assumed -- often, it has seemed to me, with a sigh of relief -- that because Catholics are politically conservative, pro-life and anti-gay, they would vote for Republicans.

When asked whether Catholics would vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 because of his "stand on abortion," Mayor Daley stared in bemusement at the reporter and observed, "They don't vote that way." Yet in every presidential election since, pundits have suggested that the issue will win Catholic votes for Republicans. There is no evidence that attitudes on the legality of abortion among Catholics are any different than the national averages. Moreover, recent research indicates that Catholics are more sympathetic to gays and lesbians than Protestants. Myth, however, does not yield to evidence.

more…
http://salon.com/opinion/feature/2004/03/27/catholics/index.html

[onehandle]

1. I will.

Of course, I'm a non-practicing, pro-choice, married outside of the Church, lived with my wife for six years beforehand kind of Catholic.

Plus a few Zen and Hindu admirations.

Ten thousand years of purgatory. Might as well vote for Kerry.

[whirlygigspin]

2. now say 3 hail Mary's

and 2 our father's...confession is good for the soul George, try it!

[cynicinthesouth]

3. Unfortunately Not Like We'd Think

I heard a huge catholic voter registration drive is underway and not because they want to get Kerry elected. They plan to heavily reprimand? him and other catholic politicians who they feel have gone against the church.

But maybe it will backfire.

[lastknowngood]

4. Not most. Most will vote repug because the pope tells the to

n/t

[k in IA]

7. Are you being sarcastic? American Catholics don't vote the

way the Pope tells them too. That was an argument Nixon used against Kennedy.

[k in IA]

5. I think he was an alter boy.

Relevance? :shrug:

[DieboldMustDie]

6. Rank and file Catholics' opinions on abortion...

are very similar to the rest of America's.

-- And if I read to the end of your post before replying I'd have seen you already mentioned that. Oops! :dunce:

[UrbScotty]

8. This Catholic will. (nt)

[fofer]

9. This one will, too.

Along with the rest of my Catholic family. :-) Some of my family members disagree with abortion, but that's not the major litmus test for their vote. They dislike Bush and the rest of his policies more.

[kixot]

10. So will this one.

[Warpy]

11. It's a myth that Catholics do anything in lockstep

....but as a whole, they tend to be far more liberal than their Protestant cousins. Most Catholics use birth control. Most Catholics are prochoice, even though they may not approve of abortion for themselves.

It all depends on whether or not Bushco is able to convince them that the sky will fall if they vote for a Democrat.

My guess is that the people who view a celibate old man's pronouncements on human sexuality with such skepticism will also be able to view a man who has lied to them for 4 years with at least the same degree of it.

[0rion]

12. This Catholic will.

nt

[tedoll78]

13. Several factors I can think of:

- abortion isn't the only issue
- the death penalty comes to mind
- so does war
- contraception is widely used among Catholics
- helping the poor is a sleeper issue

So I think Kerry might gain a few percentage points off of this if he plays it just right..