The Pew Poll About Obama’s Polarized Early Job Approval Ratings, and The Trouble with Percentages

[mathpol]

First, the statement at the Pew website.
statement

This item has been picked up on by right-wing demagogues like Rush Limbaugh, but also by serious conservative columnists like Michael Gerson, whose column , “The Most Polarizing President,” is in today’s Washington Post.

There are a few problems with the Pew Research Center statement. First of all, its conclusion ignores the approval rating by Independents, which is 57%. Second, and more importantly, all the results are stated in percentages, or differences in percentage points, with no mention of the underlying numbers

For example, we need to know the number of people of voting age who consider themselves Republicans, as a percentage of the total voting age population (TVAP). Let me give an example to illustrate my point

Suppose that, in 2001 the TVAP was 40% Rep., 20% Ind., and 40% Dem. Suppose further that since then, there has been a migration of Republicans to Independent status,(and there is reason to believe this), so that now the TVAP is 30% Rep. 30% Ind. and 40% Dem. Assume, for lack of anything better, that the 2009 approval rating of Republicans turned Independents is the same as all the Independents, 57%. Thus, since ¼ of 2001 Republicans are now Independents, the correct figure from 2009 to compare with 2001 is the weighted average of 27% and 57%, (¾)27% + (¼)57% = 34.5%. So the difference in the approval ratings, R+(R turned I) - D = 34.5 -88 = -53.5%, which is much closer, in absolute value, to the 2001 R - D = 51%.

The situation is even more stark if there has been migration from Independents to Democrats since 2001, which is probably also the case. We need all the relevant facts, and Pew hasn’t supplied them.

[islandmkl]

1. note to Barack Obama, President of the United States of America:

the hardcore 22% of the population that liked, hell, LOVED Bush/Cheney hate you as much as they did last fall...

[county worker]

2. I don't find anything troubling about the polarization of the ratings.

Most thinking people think he is doing a good job. Most of those who need Rush to think for them don't.

That's not troubling to me. It will always be that way.

[FrenchieCat]

3. I noticed this talking point!

Even Gallup had a similar story....!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/117355/Obama-Approval-Rating-Stable-Polarized.aspx

You should send this information to:

Nate Silver of 538 - [e-mail]
Media Matters - [e-mail]
Gallup.com - http://www.gallup.com/poll/contactUs.aspx?CSTS=pollnav&to=POLL-ContactUs
Rachel Maddow - [e-mail]
Josh Marshall - [e-mail]
Keith Olbermann - [e-mail]
Andrew Sullivan - [e-mail]
David Remnick (the New Yorker) [e-mail]
E.J. Dionne [e-mail]
FAIR [e-mail] - Drop them a tip - They are looking for them


These folks can get the word out and counter this talking point,
that yes....like you say, is full of balony!

[mathpol]

5. thanks for the email addresses

[gcomeau]

4. Party identification in pew poll:

Democrat: 34%
Independent: 35%
Republican: 24%
N/A: 5%

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/498.pdf

Question 50.


So yes, the strong negative results from the Republicans aren't surprising. The only people left in the party are the entrenched conservatives, the moderates have all gone Independent over the last few years.

[mathpol]

6. Thanks

We also need to know what the percentages were in 2001.

[gcomeau]

7. Pew Poll Party IDs, 2000 -> 2008:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans

It started falling off a cliff in 2006.