Josh Marshall:Key Finding

[cal04]

Read this poll analysis from Public Policy Polling ...
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2010/02/key_finding.php?ref=fpblg

The vast majority of opposition to health care and allowing gays to serve openly in the military is coming from people who already say there's no chance they'll vote Democratic this fall. That's an indication of minimal fallout for Congressional Democrats by acting on these issues.
37% of Americans say they will definitely not vote Democratic for Congress this year. 34% say they definitely will and that leaves roughly 30% of the country up for grabs.

Right now 50% of voters say they oppose President Obama's health care plan to just 39% in support. Digging a little deeper on those numbers though 64% of respondents planning or open to voting Democratic this fall support it with only 22% opposed. The overall numbers are negative only because of 94/1 opposition among folks who have said there is no way they'll vote Democratic this fall.

It's not surprising. But the data is startlingly clear. Painful to see it ignored.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/democratic-agenda.html
(snip)
Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.

[dkf]

1. Isn't there enough opposition to the sucky senate bill here for some to realize there

Are big problems with it? Even Olbermann hates it.

[cal04]

2. Strategy

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2010_02/022453.php

This has seemed painfully obvious for quite some time, but it's helpful to be able to point to specific data.

A new national survey from Public Policy Polling (D) suggests that Democrats should go ahead and pass major initiatives such as health care reform and allowing gays to serve in the military. If they don't pass these things, the poll suggests, the people who are against it won't vote for them anyway. <...>

"Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do," writes PPP communications director Tom Jensen. "These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues."

(snip)
Why on earth would the majority party back down now, satisfying the demands of those who won't vote for them anyway?



Healthcare Reform On the Edge
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/02/healthcare-reform-edge
These people are obviously persuadable, but they're only persuadable if Dems actually pass healthcare reform first and then campaign on it as if they actually believed in it. This is still a winnable campaign issue.

[RainDog]

3. iow, bipartisanship is for suckers

which we've known since Clinton.