If U.S. Leaves Vacuum in Iraq, Iran’s Deep Influence May Not Fill It

[Eugene]

Source: New York Times

If U.S. Leaves Vacuum in Iraq, Iran’s Deep Influence May Not Fill It

By TIM ARANGO
Published: October 8, 2011

NAJAF, Iraq — As the United States draws down its forces in Iraq, fears abound that Iran will simply move into the vacuum and extend its already substantial political influence more deeply through the soft powers of culture and commerce. But here, in this region that is a center of Shiite Islam, some officials say that Iran wore out its welcome long ago.

Surely, Iran has emerged empowered in Iraq over the last eight years, and it has a sympathetic Shiite-dominated government to show for it, as well as close ties to the anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr. But for what so far are rather obscure reasons — perhaps the struggling Iranian economy and mistrust toward Iranians that has been nurtured for centuries — it has been unable to extend its reach.

-snip-

A standard narrative has it that the Iraq war opened up a chessboard for the United States and Iran to tussle for power. One of the enduring outcomes has been an emboldened Iran that is politically close to Iraq’s leaders, many of whom escaped to Iran during Saddam Hussein’s government, and that is a large trading partner.

Yet the story is more nuanced, particularly in the Shiite-dominated south that became politically empowered after the American invasion upended Sunni rule. It has been other countries — most powerfully Turkey, but also China, Lebanon and Kuwait — that have cemented influence through economic ties.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/middleeast/if-united-states-leaves-vacuum-in-iraq-disliked-iran-may-not-fill-it.html

[MADem]

1. The problem w/ Iraq and Iran is that Iran thinks they are "better" than Iraq.

They think they have a "better" history, a "better" culture, and that Iraqis are just cousins of those sand gypsies that never did anything, never built anything, and are dumbos.

It's not true, of course--there's lots of great history that originated in Mesopotamia, but the Persians want to take credit for that, too.

The shi'a thing is a curious overlay, made more difficult by the fact that Ayatullah Khomeini spent eons exiled in Iraq before he did the France to Teheran hop back in 79. The whole "enemy of my enemy" thing comes into play, too.

And then, there is also another overlay--the WAR. The Iran-Iraq War, that went on for-fucking-ever. It was like Vietnam, only on steroids. You don't get all kissy-face when every single family has a relative--or ten--who was killed in that war, or is home, maimed, as a consequence of it.

They'll probably love to cozy up to China, so long as the Chinese don't "mix in" too much. They've got money, and Iraq has oil. Happy marriage for the both of 'em. Turkey's more problematic over the long haul, because they think that the border with Iraq is "wrong," and plus, there's that whole Kurdish thing that's an ongoing issue. No doubt they'll do business, though.

[asjr]

2. It has long been my view that if

and when we leave those countries they will do what they want, not what we desire. They will do as they darn well please and negate any legitimate reason we went into these "wars" to begin with. So we may as well get out now. We continue to get ourselves deeper in debt by the day.