Terminating Al-Sadr Will Not Eliminate Shi'a Resistance

[nosmokes]

Power and Interest News Report (PINR)

http://www.pinr.com
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August 13, 2004:


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"Terminating Al-Sadr Will Not Eliminate Shi'a Resistance"
Drafted by Erich Marquardt on August 13, 2004
http://www.pinr.com

As the U.S. military swarms the Iraqi city of Najaf, a vital decision must be made about whether it is willing to kill Shi'a leader Moqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr, whose private militia is known as the Mehdi Army, has been a jagged thorn in the side of the U.S.-led occupation. Al-Sadr's influence among the Shi'a community, and his control of thousands of weapon-toting militia, has made him a power force to contend with, a situation that is endangering Washington's attempts to stabilize Iraq.

At first look, terminating al-Sadr would destroy the leadership of the Mehdi Army, perhaps precipitating its collapse. However, al-Sadr is more a product of societal conditions in Iraq than an influencer of them; the failure of Washington to effectively stabilize Iraq has transformed al-Sadr into a popular figure who speaks to the anger and resentment that a segment of Iraq's population holds toward the U.S.-led occupation. Viewing the situation from this perspective, the termination of al-Sadr would simply eliminate a figurehead, and the Shi'a resistance to the U.S.-led occupation would surge forward.

- Background

Al-Sadr, who is said to be about 31 years old, is the son of respected Shi'a cleric Mohamed Sadeq al-Sadr, who was assassinated by Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party in 1999 due to his outspoken criticism of its policies. Shortly after the U.S.-led invasion, al-Sadr and his militia recognized the power vacuum that had been created and quickly supplied food and essential supplies to Iraqis suffering the hardships of war. But it was his public, charismatic and outspoken defiance of the U.S.-led occupation that earned him the most respect.
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- National Ramifications of the Najaf Offensive

Nevertheless, killing al-Sadr is fraught with dangers. For one, his death could transform him into a martyr and intensify the anger held by the Shi'a community toward the U.S.-led occupation. Such an action could also easily anger other segments of the Iraqi populace. Upon al-Sadr's death, his militia would survive, and it would likely only be a short time until a new leader would arise to take al-Sadr's place. Capturing al-Sadr could also prove fruitless since he only represents a movement, and is not the movement itself.
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- Global Ramifications of the Najaf Offensive

Finally, the global ramifications of eliminating al-Sadr must be carefully considered. Not only could damage to the shrine cause a new popular uprising against U.S.-led forces inside Iraq, it could also precipitate more instances of "blowback" on U.S. interests throughout the world. Because Shi'a Muslims are located across the globe -- especially in Iran, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, India and Pakistan -- any damage to Najaf's holy sites could help stir violent hatred toward the United States among this religious group.
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- The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an analysis-based publication that seeks to, as objectively as possible, provide insight into various conflicts, regions and points of interest around the globe. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of [e-mail]. All comments should be directed to [e-mail].

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[Seldona]

1. This is a nightmare.

Iraq has never been closer to all out civil war than it is right now.

Iran is already calling for international intervention to stop the killings.

Just when you think we have lost all of our credibility, they sink to new lows.

Every time *Bush opens his mouth to talk about bringing democracy to the Iraqi people, I picture the bombs falling, and the pictures of dead children, and just about want to scream.

How anyone can still buy into *Bush's clain to be freeing these people are beyond me.

And for what?

Saddam is gone.

There are no WMD.

There is no threat.

And we are surrounding entire cites in barbed wire, and bombing residential nieborhoods, all the while claiming to be freeing them.

We literaly have no reason to be there.

At least none that they will admit to.

[thebigidea]

3. how is it civil war? They're united in attacking US!

A coupla puppets fronting for 140,000 troops does not a civil war make.

[Seldona]

4. Well since I consider the turnover to be a joke,

I still consider our people in charge.

So in a sense they are revolting against the US led government.

But you are right.

More of an insurection than a civil war.

Sorry man, tired as hell.

:)

[NEOBuckeye]

2. If the U.S. Kills Al Sadr, they will make him into martyr.

That is much, much worse than keeping him alive.

Fools! Don't they realize NO amount of guns and explosives can trump IDEAS?!? Al Sadr will become even more of a hero to the Iraqis and a tremendous boost to their resistance. That's quite a bit of morale, that our troops do not and can never have in this situation.

I feel very bad for our troops, because they are living -- and dying -- through their very worst nightmares. It's only going to get worse and worse.