With Ball in Bush's Court, Can He Keep the Bounce Going?

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-outlook6sep06.story
WASHINGTON OUTLOOK
With Ball in Bush's Court, Can He Keep the Bounce Going?
Ronald Brownstein

September 6, 2004

NEW YORK — Can President Bush survive good fortune better than Sen. John F. Kerry did?

A spring downpour of bad news for the administration gave Kerry, the Democratic nominee, a small but consistent lead over Bush in most polls through the Democratic National Convention in late July. But in August, Bush narrowed or eliminated that lead, depending on the survey.

Now after last week's Republican convention, Bush has opened an advantage of his own, slim in some surveys but as much as double digits in a new Time magazine poll. The first question for the campaign's last stretch: Can Bush maintain a lead more effectively than Kerry did?

The answer may turn largely on events in the economy and Iraq that neither campaign can control. But Kerry's slide in August shows how much the contenders' campaign decisions can also affect the dynamic.

Nervous Democrats believe three key Kerry decisions helped Bush to recover. Many fret that Kerry didn't respond fast enough when his Vietnam War record came under assault from the so-called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a group with strong Republican ties. Others complain that Kerry placed too much emphasis on his biography and too little on his agenda at the Democratic convention. Others say the convention didn't deliver a strong and clear indictment of Bush's record.

These second and third complaints are actually reflections of the same underlying strategic calculation. Since spring, the Kerry campaign has concluded that a narrow majority of Americans are ready to change direction and need more to be reassured that Kerry is an acceptable alternative than be persuaded to fire Bush.

For months, plenty of polling evidence has indicated that at least a slim majority prefers change. A narrow majority of voters has consistently said it wants a new policy direction. The president's job approval rating, for most of this year, was stuck just below 50%. For an incumbent, that's like being stuck with your head just below water.

But, in practice, Kerry's decision to emphasize reassurance over persuasion ceded control of the day-to-day campaign debate to Bush. Because Kerry wasn't drawing sharp contrasts most days, Bush's attacks on the Democrat's record and decisiveness have dominated the news.

Further, because Kerry has spent so much time trying to buff his credentials as commander in chief, he didn't drive a sharp message on domestic issues like the economy; in a recent Times survey, less than 40% of voters said they had a firm idea of his plans for accelerating growth.<snip>

[soupkitchen]

1. Or, Flubber and the bounce.

When they talk about Bush and the bounce, why do I think Of Flubber.