WSJ's Al Hunt: What If the Polls Are Wrong?

[question everything]

Al can be reached at [e-mail]2.

Election Surveys That Screen Out 'Unlikely' Voters Might Be Outdated
September 17, 2004

(snip)

This might be more than an academic issue. A number of polls this presidential race show a gap in the preferences of registered voters vs. likely voters. In these models, the president usually does better with likely voters, the figure most news organizations emphasize. To get to likely voters, all polling organizations use what is called a "screen," asking questions to determine who is likely to actually turn out on election day.

(snip)

Gallup explains it has what it considers a time-tested formula for determining most likely voters. It asks eight questions, such as current intensity of interest, past voting behavior and interest, and whether you know where your voting place is... But there is reason to suspect those criteria are outdated, especially in an election where both sides say the intensity level is much higher than four years ago and get-out-the-vote organizations are considerably better than ever -- few people on Nov. 2 will be in the dark on where the voting polls are.

(snip)

But most of the time the screen for likely voters tilts Republican. In 2000, Gallup's election eve survey showed George Bush ahead by two points among its likely voters; he trailed Al Gore by a point among registered voters, very close to the final outcome.


(snip)

The probable outlook: Polls will vary and conflict if this race remains tight. Also, poll watchers must remember that the best survey has a three or four-point margin of error; that means if it shows the race even, one or the other candidate actually could be up by a half-dozen. Here's a final guide: If almost all the election eve polls show one candidate up four or five points or more, take it to the bank. But if most show the race within a couple of points, plan on staying up late election night.

(snip)

Write to Albert R. Hunt at [e-mail]

URL for this article:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB109536730469420041,00.html

[kestrel91316]

1. GASP - What IF the polls are wrong?????

Gee, then Kerry is our president. And your point, Mr. Hunt, is what?

[question everything]

2. His point is not to rely on polls

I could only post four paragraphs, and perhaps should have included these:

This controversy will be fueled by today's just-released Gallup poll that shows George Bush with a 13-point lead over John Kerry. That is at variance with other surveys this week, which suggest a tight race with a much smaller Bush tilt. But the likely voters margin also is considerably larger than the eight-point advantage in Gallup's registered voters in this survey. The likely voters match-up invariably gets more attention.

and

"A formula that made sense years ago may not recognize all the changes in society," notes Mr. Hart. "It gives more credence to past behavior and too little to current interest." "For low-turnout elections those old models work well," suggests Bill McInturff, a Republican, and the other WSJ/NBC News pollster. "But in today's presidential election those models tend to a little older, a little more white, a little more affluent and a little more Republican voters. They may miss some of the extraordinary activity going on in African-American and Latino communities."

[mike6640]

3. I dont care about the polls

I know that I will personally vote for Kerry, and encourage everyone I know to do the same. I happen to live in a Kerry "safe" state (I hope). Barring electronic vote theft, CA should go to Kerry.

Polls by the "Librul" media are bogus and slanted toward GOP. We here have know that for years.

Get out the Vote!

M