Bush's Travel Restrictions Could Create
An Opening for the Democrat in Florida
By JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 20, 2004; Page A4
MIAMI -- This month, John Kerry's campaign boldly went where few Democrats have dared to tread since 1992: Little Havana, the heart of Cuban Miami... Since the days of Ronald Reagan, fervently anti-Castro Cuban-Americans have made their community a bastion of Republican support. That affiliation reached a crescendo four years ago, amid fury over the Clinton administration's decision on Elian Gonzalez, a seven-year-old refugee who was rescued from waters near Miami, after surviving a boat journey to the U.S. in which his mother perished. Anger over the government's returning the boy to Cuba helped spark a massive turnout for George W. Bush, who won 82% of the Cuban-American vote.
But that ardor has cooled, and that could spell trouble for Mr. Bush's re-election hopes. Though Bush forces think they enjoy a slight lead in Florida now, thanks to a recovering economy, the race remains tight. Democrats are working to help Mr. Kerry gain a beachhead among Cuban-Americans, who in the 2000 election made up about 7.5% of the Florida vote. Given that 450,000 Cuban Americans voted in 2000, even a shift of 10%, or 45,000 votes, could be pivotal. As in other parts of the country, the Iraq war and the bumpy economic recovery are issues for Cuban-Americans. But so is a policy announced by Mr. Bush this summer that restricts visits by Cuban-Americans to their families in Cuba. Some formerly rock-ribbed Cuban-Americans have picketed the offices of local Republican legislators, while a number of respected community leaders have also blasted the restrictions.
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Among those who arrived before 1980, who comprise two-thirds of the Cuban-American vote, support for Mr. Bush has risen to 92% in July from 89% in June, according to a survey by pollster Sergio Bendixen for the New Democrat Network, an unaffiliated political group that does Democratic outreach with Hispanics. The poll found that just 6% of these Cuban-Americans plan to vote for Mr. Kerry. But it also showed Mr. Kerry as the favorite among the other third of Cuban-American voters. Among those born in the U.S., Mr. Kerry leads by 58% to Mr. Bush's 35%. Cuban-Americans who arrived here after 1980 favor Mr. Kerry by a margin of 55% to 20%, with 25% undecided.
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Mr. Kerry opposes the new embargo-tightening measures, which limit Cuban-Americans to one visit to the island every three years, down from once a year. The regulations also don't define relatives such as cousins, uncles and aunts as close family -- meaning that Cuban-Americans can't legally visit those relatives or send money to them.
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Write to José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com
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